New Bets for Craps
Quote: AyecarumbaI think you have to subtract the odds of making the point, "early" (i.e., rolling the four on the second or third rolls).
Some questions:
1) If the shooter rolls three consecutive sevens coming out, then establishes a four as the point, does the counter now read "four"?
2) If the shooter is playing Don't Pass, what happens when he performs as in number 1 above, but gives up after the third come out winner? Is the bet allowed to be taken down, or does the next shooter pick up where he left off?
Question 1 is No, only the first roll after establishing a point starts the count.
Question 2 is Yes, because a winner 7 the bet will not lose, only on a 7 out or when the point isn't rolled on the number of rolls as its point.
Quote: AyecarumbaI think you have to subtract the odds of making the point, "early" (i.e., rolling the four on the second or third rolls).
I did account for the point early.
assuming the point is FOUR,
On roll one, there is 3 ways to make a 4, and 6 ways to make a 7 = 9/36 = 1/4, so 3/4 of a way to stay alive
on roll two, same 3/4 of a way
on roll three, same 3/4 of a way
on roll FOUR, must roll a 4, so 3/36 way to win.
So 3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 * 1/12 = .03516
Potentially getting paid 60-1 for an 29-1 event is a pretty good player bet.
Quote: allinriverkingRaleigh,
This is what I calculated.
0.0007821 for the 10 point
0.0013708 for the 9 point
0.0022537 for the 8 point
0.0046732 for the 6 point
0.0050384 for the 5 point
0.0043945 for the 4 point
0.0185127 total probability of winning bet
0.9814873 total probability of losing bet.
Okay, so true odds of making any of these points, BEFORE the come out roll would be:
10 = 1278:1
9 = 729:1
8 = 443:1
6 = 214:1
5 = 198:1
4 = 227:1
Interesting that the 5 point is the easiest to Set AND Make in this bet.
So, this makes way more sense now. Where did your 5:1 and 10:1 payouts come from before ?
Trying to calculate the probabilities of the 10 hitting on the tenth roll or after.
Does this look right????
(3/24*POWER(27/36,9)*3/36)+(3/24*POWER(27/36,10)*3/6) = 0.004302
Quote: allinriverkingHey Miplet,
Trying to calculate the probabilities of the 10 hitting on the tenth roll or after.
Does this look right????
(3/24*POWER(27/36,9)*3/36)+(3/24*POWER(27/36,10)*3/6) = 0.004302
Almost. The last number should be 9.
3/24*POWER(27/36,9)*3/9 also works.
Also, although I know it was discussed and is a gripe with All/Small/Tall, but if we made the bet lose on come out 7, how much higher could uniform payout be? I am really thinking if you could get uniform payout to like 75-1 that would make for an exciting proposition when the 4/5/6 are the point as you are more likely to get to the payoff roll on those points for the On Point bet.
Just read that all points is a 50-1 payoff. I definitely think you add the "lose on come out 7" to get the unifrom payout a bit higher.
Quote: ParadigmAs a side note, I am operating in the world where only the On Point Bet exists. I didn't think the over under point bets make sense due to their complexity and tracking.
Just read that all points is a 50-1 payoff. I definitely think you add the "lose on come out 7" to get the unifrom payout a bit higher.
Not by much
60 to 1 9.66
61 to 1 8.18
62 to 1 6.70
63 to 1 5.21
64 to 1 3.73
65 to 1 2.25
66.5212838029306 to 1 0.00
Edit to add:
If all 2,3,7,11, and 12 all lose on the come out, then you can go to 75 to 1 and have 6.20%
Quote: allinriverkingHow is this for interesting payout, Paradigm?
10 - pays 100 to 1
9 - pays 90 to 1
8 - pays 60 to 1
6 - pays 50 to 1
5 - pays 40 to 1
4 - pays 30 to 1
H.E. of 7.77% (really 7.77% for a Craps bet, fate from the mathematical heavens - haha)
You know, I'm going to suggest that you keep in mind a house edge per roll of 0.48 or lower to make it an enticing bet for experienced players.
And truthfully if you can make the edge per roll lower, I think you may end up getting a lot of players excited about bigger payoffs.
The problem with big payoff bets on craps isn't that they don't pay enough, but that are too much of a sucker bet compared to just making a bigger line bet to win more, or bigger odds .. but let's focus just on the line.
I actually don't like tables with fire bets because of the type of players it attracts. But I don't mind playing on tables with the bonus craps bets as much because those bets are a little lower on the edge equation and it just seems more fair.
But look at the edge per roll, not the edge per bet as a way to make the bet fair. Just my two cents (per roll).
Quote: mipletNot by much
60 to 1 9.66
61 to 1 8.18
62 to 1 6.70
63 to 1 5.21
64 to 1 3.73
65 to 1 2.25
66.5212838029306 to 1 0.00
Edit to add:
If all 2,3,7,11, and 12 all lose on the come out, then you can go to 75 to 1 and have 6.20%
Im not objectionable to a 75 for 1 payout, It's 7.44%.
Although I really like this payout if taking into account the 2, 3, 7, 11 and 12 on comeout roll bet loses a paytable of the following would be nice.
300 - for point of 10
150 - for point of 9
100 - for point of 8
75 - for point of 6
50 - for point of 5
25 - for point of 4
H.E. 6.91%
Quote: mipletAlmost. The last number should be 9.
3/24*POWER(27/36,9)*3/9 also works.
Changing it to the 2, 3 7, 11 and 12 on come-out roll bet loses, I get the following for making the point of 10 on the tenth roll or after as being 0.003129. Is this correct? I think I'm missing adding something to it.
Quote: allinriverkingChanging it to the 2, 3 7, 11 and 12 on come-out roll bet loses, I get the following for making the point of 10 on the tenth roll or after as being 0.003129. Is this correct? I think I'm missing adding something to it.
Looks good to me.
3/36*POWER(27/36,9)*3/9
Quote: mipletLooks good to me.
3/36*POWER(27/36,9)*3/9
Then for the 9 making on the ninth roll or after, I would use the following: 4/36*POWER(26/36,8)*4/10
Quote: allinriverkingThen for the 9 making on the ninth roll or after, I would use the following: 4/36*POWER(26/36,8)*4/10
Yep.
I vote for the 60-1 uniform payoff. Bets lose on any 7 (even on the come out). Track the number of rolls with one lammer and 10 circle spots on the layout, lammer moved by boxman after each roll and starts on circle #1.
This is a tough sell as a stand alone bet and I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling about the More-Point/Less-Point concepts.
Maybe a bet you licensed to Galaxy to include in their "Bonus Craps" (Small/Tall/All) offering. Tables with this bet already require the boxman to be present and casino's have bought into this if installing "Bonus Craps".
1/3 of the time you are going to get a point of 4/5/6. These points have the highest liklihood's of actually making it to the roll that provides the opportunity to win. The anticipation of hitting the 60-1 payout and winning the pass line bet on one roll is the juice to this concept. You want that juice to happen as often as possible even with losses the majority of the time. The potential to win or the "just missed it" moments are almost as important as winning itself.
Quote: ParadigmTrack the number of rolls with one lammer and 10 circle spots on the layout, lammer moved by boxman after each roll and starts on circle #1.
Actually I'm using 11 circles, and all 11 circles are covered with a lammer each at the start. When the first roll after the point has been established, the lammer covering the 1 circle is picked up and placed on top of the lammer on top of the 11 circle. Then each succession roll, the lammer is just moved from the circle on the left to the circle to its right, revealing the new current number of roll completed. This allows for only one number circled to be visible at a time. 11 circles are used to show that the 10th roll has been passed.
I wonder how many people are going to get po'd when they make that seventh roll, and a 7 comes out.
I'm being half funny, but there could be some people who turn away from the game... Perhaps Roman Numerals ?
Isn't big Red spelled out?
Quote: RaleighCrapsOH BOY. A BIG RED 7 staring the shooter in the face. lol
I wonder how many people are going to get po'd when they make that seventh roll, and a 7 comes out.
I'm being half funny, but there could be some people who turn away from the game... Perhaps Roman Numerals ?
Isn't big Red spelled out?
When I made the losing rolls in red solid, I was going to do what I just did and make a solid red circle for the seventh roll. Got in a hurry I guess. Thanks for pointing it out. Fixed now.
Quote: allinriverkingWhen I made the losing rolls in red solid, I was going to do what I just did and make a solid red circle for the seventh roll. Got in a hurry I guess. Thanks for pointing it out. Fixed now.
In society, if someone displayed a fear of saying 7 or seeing a 7, we would send them for therapy. But do the same thing in a casino, and you are considered 'normal'. Go figure
