New Bets for Craps
Point-by-Point Bets™ are a new group of bets offered in the game of Craps. This group consists of three bets. They are as follows:
1) Less-Point Bet – This bet wins, when a point is successfully made within a number of rolls equal to or less than the number of the point itself. This bet loses if the above doesn't occur, if a seven rolls on the come-out roll; or if the point is made on the seventh roll. Example: 5 is the point, the point is made on the fourth roll after the point was established. Because the point was made in five or less rolls; the Less-Point Bet wins.
2) On-Point Bet – This bet wins, when a point is successfully made within a number of rolls equal to the number of the point itself. This bet loses if the above doesn't occur; or if a seven rolls on the come-out roll. Example: 9 is the point, the point is made on the tenth roll after the point was established. Because the point wasn't made on the ninth roll; the On-Point Bet loses.
3) More-Point Bet – This bet wins, when a point is successfully made within a number of rolls equal to or more than the number of the point itself. This bet loses if the above doesn't occur, if a seven rolls on the come-out roll; or if the point is made on the seventh roll. Example: 6 is the point, the point is made on the fourth roll after the point was established. Because the point wasn't made in six or more rolls; the More-Point Bet loses.
Players may bet none, one, two or all three bets described above. The bets can only be placed on the come-out roll; before any point is established.
Quote: ParadigmAre these bets made after the point is known or on the come out roll?
hehe read the very last sentence of his post.
Quote: SOOPOOI think only option 2 is reasonable. the others seem too cumbersome, and option 2 will be more like a jackpot, as the odds will be likely thousands to one against for any given number. probably way more for a ten, for example.
I agree with Soopoo. I would pitch just that one bet. Perhaps make it so it can be bet AFTER the point is set. If the payout was high enough, it could be a fun way to throw away a buck each point.
But as far as being a player, the bets that I would like would be $1 free bets on the hardways for every come or passline that gets assigned to an even point number.
Quote: SOOPOOI think only option 2 is reasonable. the others seem too cumbersome, and option 2 will be more like a jackpot, as the odds will be likely thousands to one against for any given number. probably way more for a ten, for example.
1 in 1598 for the 10 assuming :
1. You have to bet the 10 before the come out roll.
2. It loses on a come out 7, or other point established.
3. The 10 is made on exactly the 10th roll after establishing the 10.
4. I didn't mess up in Excel.
Quote: miplet1 in 1598 for the 10 assuming :
1. You have to bet the 10 before the come out roll.
2. It loses on a come out 7, or other point established.
3. The 10 is made on exactly the 10th roll after establishing the 10.
4. I didn't mess up in Excel.
I guess I'll do it... 1/12 x (3/4) (9th power) x 1/12 I get 1 in 1918.
1/12 in establishing 10 as point on come out roll.
3/4 on not hitting a 7 or 10 on next roll, times the 9 rolls you need to wait
1/12 on hitting 10 on the 10th roll
I assumed it loses on a 2,3,11, or 12 on the comeout roll. That could be why we have different results.
Quote: SOOPOOI guess I'll do it... 1/12 x (3/4) (9th power) x 1/12 I get 1 in 1918.
1/12 in establishing 10 as point on come out roll.
3/4 on not hitting a 7 or 10 on next roll, times the 9 rolls you need to wait
1/12 on hitting 10 on the 10th roll
I assumed it loses on a 2,3,11, or 12 on the comeout roll. That could be why we have different results.
Yep. I changed my 3/30 to 3/36 and got 1 in 1918.
I do agree with the others above, just pitch option #2. There are already enough bets to be made on the craps table so any additions need to be for "jackpot"/"large payout type wagers. The "On Point" bet likely achieves that, particularly on the 8,9, 10 points.
Even on an easy point like the 8, you have to avoid a 7 or an 8 for seven consecutive rolls and then hit it on the 8th roll. There is over a 30% chance you hit a 7 or 8 every roll. Avoiding those numbers on 7 consecutive rolls and then hitting it on the 8th is going to be a long shot as well.
Mips......what are those #'s?
Quote: ParadigmMy apologies for missing the last sentence of the post and asking a redundant question.
I do agree with the others above, just pitch option #2. There are already enough bets to be made on the craps table so any additions need to be for "jackpot"/"large payout type wagers. The "On Point" bet likely achieves that, particularly on the 8,9, 10 points.
Even on an easy point like the 8, you have to avoid a 7 or an 8 for seven consecutive rolls and then hit it on the 8th roll. There is over a 30% chance you hit a 7 or 8 every roll. Avoiding those numbers on 7 consecutive rolls and then hitting it on the 8th is going to be a long shot as well.
Mips......what are those #'s?
I like this, but would suggest the bet be generalized to any number on it's count, even the seven. The bet would clear after a 12 is not hit, and need to be reset. Those who purport to be DI's would love to have a target with a bigger payout.
Quote: ParadigmMy apologies for missing the last sentence of the post and asking a redundant question.
I do agree with the others above, just pitch option #2. There are already enough bets to be made on the craps table so any additions need to be for "jackpot"/"large payout type wagers. The "On Point" bet likely achieves that, particularly on the 8,9, 10 points.
Even on an easy point like the 8, you have to avoid a 7 or an 8 for seven consecutive rolls and then hit it on the 8th roll. There is over a 30% chance you hit a 7 or 8 every roll. Avoiding those numbers on 7 consecutive rolls and then hitting it on the 8th is going to be a long shot as well.
Mips......what are those #'s?
For betting after the point is established its 1 in 64, 122, and 160 for 8, 9, and 10 respectively.
Using my method at the top of this page its 385 , 912, and 1598.
And SOOPOO's below that its 462 ,1094, 1918.
I'm surprised the all tall/all small/everything bets are having even a measure of success, and these are even more complicated.
Quote: Buzzard" My highly un-informed feedback from the peanut gallery:" Are you old enough to know the origin of the peanut gallery? Were you ever in it ?
Yes I know the origin, the Howdy Doody show, no I was not old enough to be in it or even remember it. My most prominent memory of the Howdy Doody show comes from Back to the Future III.
<TV switches on, Howdy Doody intro music plays in the background>
Doc: "Great Scott! Howdy Doody time!"
Quote: AcesAndEightsMy highly un-informed feedback from the peanut gallery: these bets are awful, regardless of the payouts/house edge. Too complicated for the house to track/pay off, too esoteric for the customers to care about them.
I'm surprised the all tall/all small/everything bets are having even a measure of success, and these are even more complicated.
Craps is far from as complicated as it will become. Just wait!!!
In my opinion the #2 option has to be structured to give as large a payout as possible, seems like that would be before the comeout roll.
I think tracking can be done (but one more thing for the boxman to do like the tall/small/all wager). Have a set of numbers from 1-10 in a row in front of the Boxman's chips and have him move a tracking lammer one spot over/across after every roll once the point is established to track the roll count. When the point is made or the lammer passes the roll count equal to the point, the bet is resolved and called out by the stickman.
Tall/Small/All is working because it moves/makes progress on almost every roll. In fills in the action gap after the point has been established when a non-essential number hits. You hit the 2,3, 11 or 12 mid roll and normally nobody gets paid. But these are the big numbers for the Tall/Small/All bets. When a non-point number is rolled, if you aren't placing numbers, you are making progress on your $1 Tall/Small/All bets. If it weren't for the mid roll action, I would have limited that set of bets just to the "All" bet for the large payout potential. The 34 to 1 action on the Small/Tall bets can almost be achieved with other bets on the existing layout, so those payouts don't add that much to the game. But the mid roll action, that is what gives these bets traction.
I think this bet concept has a chance as a alternate to the Fire Bet. You get new action on every come out roll, Fire takes a long time to resolve and potentially you have a 500-1+ payout possible with this be when the right point is established (10, I assume). In fact, more resolutions per hour is the selling point for this On-Point bet vs. the Fire Bet.
Quote: AcesAndEightsMy highly un-informed feedback from the peanut gallery: these bets are awful, regardless of the payouts/house edge. Too complicated for the house to track/pay off, too esoteric for the customers to care about them.
I'm surprised the all tall/all small/everything bets are having even a measure of success, and these are even more complicated.
The Small/Tall/All bet is surprisingly easy for the crew to control.
At Beau, they have the number lammers sitting right above the number.
If the box is busy doing accounting work, the stick usually grabs the lammer with his stick and slides it over the number.
Or sometimes a base dealer will put it on the number.
Quote: ParadigmKeep it simple.....you start talking about two sets of five fanned out coins and your customer will glaze over and say "Thank you for stopping by".
Agreed. Where will the hop bets go in this layout?
Quote: allinriverkingTo simplify things payouts will be the same regardless of the point since bets need to be made before point is known. Also the seventh roll losing is an option to increase payout size. Also 2 3 11 and 12 on comeout roll doesnt cause bets to lose. And the 7 on comeout losing may change to increase hit frequency. The less and more point bets are there to collect sometimes to feed the on point if u will. With the cgance to win all three could make a nice payout. The players will be able to count fanned out coins in front of boxman to know how many hits have been hit by seeing how many remain. Two fanned piles of five coins in front of boxman to start one to their left and one to their right with a single coin in front, three in front on crapless
The one thing that I didn't like with the Small/Tall/All bet was repeatedly losing it on Come out roll 7s. In fact, I missed getting the Small bet paid because I did not put the bet back up after my third straight Come out 7. $#@$#@%$#%$#
So, I would recommend making it so the bet has to be up before the Come Out Roll.
It does not resolve on a Come Out 2,3,12,7, or 11.
Once the point is set, it pays out if the shooter Rolls the Point on the roll number of the point (ie. roll 4 if point was 4, roll 8 if point was 8).
It would be cool to have the payout match the point (so a 4 would pay xxxx:1 while a 6 would pay yyyy:1), however, that will take some real estate on the felt to display the payout for each number. It may be simpler to just have one Payout for the bet, with some points getting paid less than they should, but other points getting over paid.
Quote: ParadigmKeep it simple.....you start talking about two sets of five fanned out coins and your customer will glaze over and say "Thank you for stopping by".
With the ats bets they keep 5 coins on one side and 5 on the other side already. Some box people line them behind the numbered circles already. So this could be done on this game 5 coins layed touchin each other on one side and 5 on other side with one in middle.
Quote: RaleighCrapsIt would be cool to have the payout match the point (so a 4 would pay xxxx:1 while a 6 would pay yyyy:1), however, that will take some real estate on the felt to display the payout for each number. It may be simpler to just have one Payout for the bet, with some points getting paid less than they should, but other points getting over paid.
You could use a small sign for the per point pay outs that is attached to the dealer side wall of the table, I think the fire bet does that for the payouts on the number of points hit and respective payout.
Quote: ParadigmYou could use a small sign for the per point pay outs that is attached to the dealer side wall of the table, I think the fire bet does that for the payouts on the number of points hit and respective payout.
Good point. That would work nicely.
I really get tired of *all* the bets getting killed on the 7-out when being a right bettor is my choice for the day.
PS: fair odds are 10 to 1, with a player laying the bet. Craps page at Wikipedia suggests this bet might be available somewhere [really?] but as yet another bet that dies on the 7-out.
PS: supposedly Maryland is allowing [optional for casino] a 'Place to Lose' bet when they get real tables, see other thread. I should sell them my copyrighted name Darkside Inside !
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/other-casinos/12282-maryland-blackjack-and-craps-rules-approved/#post202767
Payout Table
Point of 10 - payout is 300 to 1
Point of 9 - payout is 200 to 1
Point of 8 - payout is 100 to 1
Point of 6 - payout is 20 to 1
Point of 5 - payout is 10 to 1
Point of 4 - payout is 5 to 1
H.E. should be 8.15%
(revised)
Quote: allinriverkingIf I did the math correctly for the On-Point Bet, here is a possible pay-table. The bet wins if the point is made on the number of rolls that is equal to the point itself; and loses if it doesn't. Example: Point is 8, for this bet to win - the Point must be made on the 8th roll only. Nothing causes this bet to lose on the come-out roll. Bet can be made only before point is established.
Payout Table
Point of 10 - payout is 500 to 1
Point of 9 - payout is 250 to 1
Point of 8 - payout is 100 to 1
Point of 6 - payout is 50 to 1
Point of 5 - payout is 25 to 1
Point of 4 - payout is 10 to 1
H.E. should be 7.92%
Simple and straightforward. I would likely throw a little money at this bet.
And you come in less HE than the hardways, which is a good thing.
Should the first part of equation be 3/24, if the 2, 3, 7, 11 and 12 don't affect bet on come-out roll? This is if point is 10 or 4.
Quote: allinriverkingMip or Soopoo
Should the first part of equation be 3/24, if the 2, 3, 7, 11 and 12 don't affect bet on come-out roll? This is if point is 10 or 4.
Yes.
=D/24*pow((30-D)/36,P-1)*D/36 is what I used where D is the number of ways to make the point and P is the point. Using the paytable above I get a player advantage of 38.12%
Quote: mipletYes.
=D/24*pow((30-D)/36,P-1)*D/36 is what I used where D is the number of ways to make the point and P is the point. Using the paytable above I get a player advantage of 38.12%
that's what I thought when I went back through it. Changing pay table.. Also someone in the biz for over 20 years told me today, that it's best to have a top payout of 300 to 1, due to certain paperwork requirements to get around in most gaming jurisdictions. Thanks for confirming the equation. Above pay table has been revised.
You aren't going to get a lot of excitement for a bet that seems difficult to hit (like a hop bet) with payouts of 20-1 or below. These payouts can be achieved making other existing known bets on the current craps layout.
My rough guess is you could set the uniform payout in the 60-1 to 65-1 range.
Then you have to ask if players will want the trade off of a 5-1 and 10-1 type situations to have the chance to get 300-1. Or if they will get excited to know that when they point does come out as a 4 or 5, they likely are going to have a chance at seeing that 4th or 5th roll which will equate to a "hop bet" for them on the 4 or 5 except it will pay 60-1 or 65-1.
Not sure what mindset will be most appreciated by players. You are going to get a lot of 8/9/10 points and never even get to the 8th, 9th or 10th roll to see if you had a chance of hitting the point on that roll. But the 4/5/6 you think you have a chance of getting to that number roll. The excitement here is going to be getting the dice in the shooter's hand for the roll that could win. But on a 5-1 or 10-1, who really cares on what is likely to be a $1 bet. Make it a 60-1 payoff (or maybe math let's you go higher), now that is anticipation that doesn't happen on the dice table that often.
Just my two cents, don't know that it is the right two cents :-)
10 - pays 100 to 1
9 - pays 90 to 1
8 - pays 60 to 1
6 - pays 50 to 1
5 - pays 40 to 1
4 - pays 30 to 1
H.E. of 7.77% (really 7.77% for a Craps bet, fate from the mathematical heavens - haha)
All 50 to 1 is 5.59
All 53.0170270423447 to 1 is 0.00 :)
Let's look at the 4.
I roll a 4 to set the point.
Now, I have to roll a 4 on EXACTLY the 4th roll. If I roll it before then, I lose. If I roll it after the 4th roll, I lose.
If I roll a 7 on rolls, 1,2, or 3, I lose.
So, what are the odds that I can roll a 4 on EXACTLY the 4th roll, and not roll a 7 before then?
5:1 does not seem possible.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI can't do the math, but are these odds really right?
Let's look at the 4.
I roll a 4 to set the point.
Now, I have to roll a 4 on EXACTLY the 4th roll. If I roll it before then, I lose. If I roll it after the 4th roll, I lose.
If I roll a 7 on rolls, 1,2, or 3, I lose.
So, what are the odds that I can roll a 4 on EXACTLY the 4th roll, and not roll a 7 before then?
5:1 does not seem possible.
You have to take into account the bet covers all points when made on their appropriate corresponding roll needed. The lower ones were underpaid and the higher ones, the harder ones to hit were overpaid. There is the additional payout table listed.
Quote: allinriverkingYou have to take into account the bet covers all points when made on their appropriate corresponding roll needed. The lower ones were underpaid and the higher ones, the harder ones to hit were overpaid. There is the additional payout table listed.
Why would you need to pad the higher numbers?
the average shooter only throws 8.65 times, so someone who sets a 9 or 10 for a point is already way behind the 8 ball.
I would have thought their odds would be great enough to support themselves.
I really like the idea of this bet, but at 5:1 for a FOUR, and 10:1 for a FIVE, it seems to be too low. I think Paradigm is right. That low of a payout would be a turn off.
Can someone show me the calculation for how to calculate what the real odds are for winning this bet on a 4, and also for winning the bet on a 10?
NM. I think I can figure it out from earlier posts.
I want to figure the odds of rolling a 4, on my 4th roll, before I roll a 4 or a 7.
So, I will assume I just rolled the 4 to set the point.
roll 1: I lose on a 4 (1/12) and I lose on a seven (1/6) = 1/12+2/12 = 1/4
roll 2: 1/4
roll 3: 1/4
roll 4: I must roll a 4 = 1/12
1/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 1/12 = .001302
I think I am doing something wrong, but I am not sure what.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI think I am doing something wrong, but I am not sure what.
I haven't gone through any of the calculations myself, but you might want to try this:
For rolls 1 through 3, try "I survive for this roll...." and use the figure 3/4. Then on roll 4 four you must hit the 4.
Also (I haven't read the details of the wager), doesn't your wager cover all of the point numbers? If so, your assumption that you set 4 as the point disregards the possibility of winning with a different point number.
Quote: DocI haven't gone through any of the calculations myself, but you might want to try this:
For rolls 1 through 3, try "I survive for this roll...." and use the figure 3/4. Then on roll 4 four you must hit the 4.
Also (I haven't read the details of the wager), doesn't your wager cover all of the point numbers? If so, your assumption that you set 4 as the point disregards the possibility of winning with a different point number.
I was only dealing with the 4 for simplicity sake.
Using your suggestion, 3/4*3/4*34*1/12 = 3.52% chance of rolling a 4 on exactly the 4th roll, with no 7 or 4 before that.
I 'guess' that passes the sanity check. I have a 3.5% chance of rolling a 4 on exactly my 4th roll after setting the point.
Now, how much should a bet pay me that only has a 3.5% chance of happening ?
Shouldn't it be closer to 27:1 ?
EDIT:
Okay, so for the point of 10 I get:
(3/4)^9 * 1/12 = .625% chance
So the true odds are 160:1 ? That just seems to be impossible..........
Some questions:
1) If the shooter rolls three consecutive sevens coming out, then establishes a four as the point, does the counter now read "four"?
2) If the shooter is playing Don't Pass, what happens when he performs as in number 1 above, but gives up after the third come out winner? Is the bet allowed to be taken down, or does the next shooter pick up where he left off?
This is what I calculated.
0.0007821 for the 10 point
0.0013708 for the 9 point
0.0022537 for the 8 point
0.0046732 for the 6 point
0.0050384 for the 5 point
0.0043945 for the 4 point
0.0185127 total probability of winning bet
0.9814873 total probability of losing bet.
