teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 22nd, 2012 at 9:56:51 AM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I highly doubt that the count can overcome the HE and if such edge ever present itself, it would be so infrequent that it is not worth waiting for.

The Lucky Ladies blackjack side bet has an edge over 24% and that bet is highly vulnerable to card counting. You have some pretty smart and experienced people here trying to warn you. Take the warning or not, but guessing will not get you very far.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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October 22nd, 2012 at 5:48:41 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

The Lucky Ladies blackjack side bet has an edge over 24% and that bet is highly vulnerable to card counting. You have some pretty smart and experienced people here trying to warn you. Take the warning or not, but guessing will not get you very far.


+1. I would highly advise getting the AP vulnerability math done BEFORE you place the game in a casino...or the APs will do the math for you, figure out it's beatable, your table will dump, and no more placements...
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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October 22nd, 2012 at 5:56:35 PM permalink
On my Baccarat game/side bet ("Lucky WIn Baccarat" shown at G2E), I had an AP "count-ability" report done by Charles Mousseau; he did a thorough and very fine job.
As a matter of course, on ANY shoe game where there multiple rounds or deals, I always do a card counters/AP report on the game, and don't release a product that is fraudable or is AP vulnerable. And Baccarat is dealt WAY DEEP into the shoe. (From this board alone, not to mention my dealing experience, I KNOW that a weakness on a game may "throw it to the WOLVES.")

I would contact CRM, as he has a lot of experience and ability on analyzing Baccarat side bets for advantage play vulnerabilities. He'll give you a full report and possible solutions to make the game robust, and card-counter resistant!

Trust me, if ANYONE would design in anti-AP play aspects into a new game, it would be PGD!
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
CRMousseau
CRMousseau
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 22nd, 2012 at 7:28:15 PM permalink
I appreciate the kind words, Dan.

As Dan pointed out, I have done this analysis a number of times, and not just on baccarat-related bets. I've tested both discrete counting methods as well as returns given "perfect information"; virtually any game or bet dealt from a depleting shoe is vulnerable to at least a trivial extent. You can never say a bet is "100% safe", nor should you try to, as each casino has their own definitions of what acceptable AP risk is. What *can* be done, however, is to compare the vulnerability to the vulnerability of blackjack (a known and verifiable commodity) as played under similar conditions, to give executives a way to frame this information and make their own conclusions.

If you are looking for an analysis to be done BEFORE there are placements made, I'm sure any of the gaming mathematicians out there (including the ones weighing in on this thread) will be more than willing to do it for a fee. It's up to you to compare "whether you want it before or after" it goes live versus potentially paying to have that information for you.

Do not, however, underestimate the countability of a game or bet with a glib dismissal -- one way or another, the facts ARE going to get out.
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
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November 18th, 2012 at 8:43:08 PM permalink
The Natural will be going live at four casinos. Look for it in Delaware and Atlantic City casinos. Once it does go live, I will name the casinos. I am working on PA casinos also. Haven't broken through but I am trying.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!

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