AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
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October 19th, 2012 at 7:54:59 PM permalink
I have just finished my second road trip meeting with casino manager/VP/DTGs. This was a very productive week. I have a new side bet for baccarat. The name of this bet is NATURAL. Bettors may bet on Player side Natural, or the Banker side Natural. If the side they pick is a natural, a two card count of either an 8 or a 9, they win. If both the Player and the Banker are Natural, the bettor has a chance at a larger payout.

Here are the payouts.

Choose side with natural get paid 2 to 1.
If both the Player and the Banker is a natural then
natural-natural loss (8 vs 9) paid 2 to 1.
natural-natural tie (8 vs 8) paid 5 to 1.
natural-natural tie (9 vs 9) paid 15 to 1.
natural-natural win (9 vs 8) paid 25 to 1.

If any forum member wants to give the house edge, I would appreciate it. I would just like to double check my number.

Also there is a second pay table where 8-8 tie pays 7 to 1 with all else being the same.

I have two different casinos who will put this in and few more that I am waiting for their reply. Appreciate any feed backs.

Thanks.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:25:44 PM permalink
Was not the Baccarat natural 8 and 9 an old side bet that Dr Thorp in the 1960s showed how it was very countable
and that bet was replaced by the Tie bet?
I have to dig out some Thorp papers o review.

How countable is your new bet?

Continued Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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October 19th, 2012 at 8:30:42 PM permalink
Both side is equally likely to get a natural. There is no advantage on one side versus another. Read the WoO site to see if it is countable. I don't see it how.

Also would like to acknowlege miplet for giving me the house edge for the one of my table that I used.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
7craps
7craps
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October 19th, 2012 at 9:35:44 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

Read the WoO site to see if it is countable. I don't see it how.

Thanks. I have read the Wizard's pages on Bac counting.
Also, Dr Thorp's paper "A Favorable Side Bet in Nevada Baccarat" is worth reading.

I was but a young boy in 1966 so I was not in a casino to see the
Banker 8, Banker 9, Player 8 and Player 9 side bets.
They look to have payed 9 to 1 for each bet.

Those bets were so countable the casinos removed them and replaced them with the Tie bet, as the story goes.

Your bets pay differently but should still be countable.
Question is, is it worth the money to be won?

I just might look more into that thanks to Dr Thorp's excellent paper.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 21st, 2012 at 3:45:01 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers


Choose side with natural get paid 2 to 1.
If both the Player and the Banker is a natural then
natural-natural loss (8 vs 9) paid 2 to 1.
natural-natural tie (8 vs 8) paid 5 to 1.
natural-natural tie (9 vs 9) paid 15 to 1.
natural-natural win (9 vs 8) paid 25 to 1.

As others have said, this bet is countable. After it is placed in a land-based casino, I will be glad to do the AP analysis (including the house edge).
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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October 21st, 2012 at 3:58:05 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

As others have said, this bet is countable. After it is placed in a land-based casino, I will be glad to do the AP analysis (including the house edge).



Dr.Eliot,

I appreciate the offer. The HE has already been calculated and verified by mulitiple sources. At this payout it is 8.19%

With the 8-8 payout of 7 to 1 it is 6.42%.

I know you were able to do the Dragon 7 bonus and found some interesting results for it. Is it countable? If baccarat is countable, then bettors can bet on the players side and have an edge. According to the analysis the Wizard did, baccarat is not countable. The few time a players can take advantage does not come up enought that it warrants the effort to try. I will let all know when it goes live. It should be soon thought.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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October 21st, 2012 at 4:09:00 PM permalink
It's not baccarat that's countable; it's the side bets.
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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October 21st, 2012 at 4:16:32 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It's not baccarat that's countable; it's the side bets.



It is equally likely that a natural will happen on the player side as it is the banker side. I have not read anywhere about Dragon Bonus being countable. Will there be a situation where knowing what few cards are left gives a player an edge? I doubt it but would like to see if there is AP possibility once it gets installs.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 21st, 2012 at 4:17:32 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I appreciate the offer. The HE has already been calculated and verified by mulitiple sources. At this payout it is 8.19% With the 8-8 payout of 7 to 1 it is 6.42%.

Ok, no problem. I thought you asked for a double-check of the house edge when you said:
Quote:

If any forum member wants to give the house edge, I would appreciate it. I would just like to double check my number.


As for counting, just count the 8's and 9's vs. all other cards. If the remainder of the shoe is rich in 8's and 9's then naturals are more likely. Because your bet pays out when naturals occur, payout of your bet is more likely. That's really all there is to it. Any time a side bet pays based on key cards, it is vulnerable to a card counting methodology.
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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October 21st, 2012 at 4:27:36 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Ok, no problem. I thought you asked for a double-check of the house edge when you said:
As for counting, just count the 8's and 9's vs. all other cards. If the remainder of the shoe is rich in 8's and 9's then naturals are more likely. Because your bet pays out when naturals occur, payout of your bet is more likely. That's really all there is to it. Any time a side bet pays based on key cards, it is vulnerable to a card counting methodology.



Interesting point. The anlaysis was based on 4,998,398,275,503,360 possible baccarat hands with an eight deck shoe. So the question becomes, at what point does knowing that the shoe is rich in 8's and 9's tip the edge to the player, if ever? There is still the house edge an AP must overcome with this knowledge.

Thank you. This is something I will look into.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!

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