I'm an idiot? (Tier credits)

I've been chasing a .25 denom vp progressive that was 100%+.

lost $1200 before I had to go back home and goto work. (it has since hit. :( )
got like 1500 tier credits in 2 days. 1000tc day 1 (14hrs), 500 tc day 2 (7hrs).

normally, not a problem.
but this year I want to try for 7stars.

1500 tc got me (1000 + 125) bonus tc's = 2625 tc
$1200/2625 = $0.46 per tc

but it is *IMPOSSIBLE* for me to earn 2500 TC in a day at a .25 denom single line game.
2500 tc in a day gets me 5k bonus tc.

when I was playing $1 dstp (9/5 JoB), which is a 99% game, I lost $2500 for 2500 tc but that got me 5000 bonus tc.
$2500/7500 = $0.33 per tc

it was cheaper per tc to play a worse game because of the bonus tc.

So was I an idiot for spending so much time and energy on the .25 100%+ vp progressive?

should I have gone somewhere else and max out my bonus tc?
ie: at a casino where $2 triple line 9/6 JoB (99.5%) is still $10 for 1 tc? (Harrah's Lake Tahoe)

Quote: 100xOdds

So was I an idiot for spending so much time and energy on the .25 100%+ vp progressive?

What was your hourly theoretical win rate? $20? $40? Doesn't seem worth the variance to me, but I'm not an AP so maybe it is. But the question of tier credits seems unrelated. If you want to get 7stars, you're probably not going to be able to do all of that on +EV action if work is going to get in the way.

Its good to get what you deserve in comps, but I play to win, not for comps. If they want to give me food, rooms, etc, i take it, but I wont put extra time and play in just to build comps and tier points. Play to win... In and out! Hit and run!

Quote: 100xOdds

I've been chasing a .25 denom vp progressive that was 100%+.

lost $1200 before I had to go back home and goto work. (it has since hit. :( )
got like 1500 tier credits in 2 days. 1000tc day 1 (14hrs), 500 tc day 2 (7hrs).

normally, not a problem.
but this year I want to try for 7stars.

1500 tc got me (1000 + 125) bonus tc's = 2625 tc
$1200/2625 = $0.46 per tc

but it is *IMPOSSIBLE* for me to earn 2500 TC in a day at a .25 denom single line game.
2500 tc in a day gets me 5k bonus tc.

when I was playing $1 dstp (9/5 JoB), which is a 99% game, I lost $2500 for 2500 tc but that got me 5000 bonus tc.
$2500/7500 = $0.33 per tc

it was cheaper per tc to play a worse game because of the bonus tc.

So was I an idiot for spending so much time and energy on the .25 100%+ vp progressive?

should I have gone somewhere else and max out my bonus tc?
ie: at a casino where $2 triple line 9/6 JoB (99.5%) is still $10 for 1 tc? (Harrah's Lake Tahoe)

Just because you lost money chasing that progressive or you didn't get the TC's you wanted certainly doesn't mean you were doing something wrong. It sounds to me like you were playing a game that you will beat in the end. You know as well as the rest of us that any time you play quarters it is going to take thousands upon thousands of hands to see the return on your money. The key in VP is not to make mistakes on a per hand basis. You can play losing games if you know your gonna come out on top on the backside. I am curious what your obsession is with CET and this diamond/7star status. I haven't played with them since they starting cutting the mail and the points on the card. I am sure they have things to play but I really do not like to bother with them or the Stations usually. I've read most of your posts recently. You sound like you know what you want and what you need to get it. If you want top card at any place I think you just need to get your strategy down before you start. Commit to what you are trying to achieve. Play games that you know are going to net you a return on your money. You have to eat so nothing wrong with getting comps at any time. That is part of the win or part of the bonus that your paid. It certainly has some value to it. Try not to listen to this BS advice about "hit and run" and "in and out"... I think you know that isn't true. This game is not about one hour or one day or one year. It is your total investment for your lifetime. It isn't like your going to win 5k today and not play tomorrow. Especially if your banging VP, which I know you are. You know that VP these days is a lot of losing and I mean a lot! Usually by weeks end or months end you should be on top if your doing it correctly and putting enough time in. Remember, your always going to have to maintain your play if you do get the players card you want so it is a never ending battle. Just because you make top card today doesn't mean you get to just stop playing. Even my red card at ACE PLAY requires me to go back every year and put the 250 TC pts to maintain it!

The way I understand it is that you can make diamond card playing live poker pretty easy. So once you make that level playing live poker can't you just start up earning the rest of the TC's?

You are confusing actual results with EV. A 99% game, $25,000 coin-in costs you $250 in EV --- not $2,500. The fact that you lost $2,500 on one particular play is irrelevant. Sometimes you'll win. DSTP is a game with a LONG cycle length --- because so much of the EV is concentrated in a dealt royal when a multiplier is in effect.

It's now January 6. You have almost 360 more days to make Seven Stars. I have no idea how often you plan to go to the casino.

The EV cost of tier credits when you're playing a 100% game is ZERO. The EV cost of tier credits when you're playing a 99% game --- even getting the bonus --- is much higher than that.

The only time it would make sense to play a lesser game for higher stakes is if you had limited time to reach your Seven Stars goal.

Why do you have to play one or the other over the course of the year, why not play both. If its important to you to get there, maybe play some of what you would play anyways around home, and take a couple trips to Tahoe or wherever and hammer out 2-3 higher tier credit days on the trip.

Thanks all for your replies.

1) Don't play for comps
I figured I come out ahead if I played 9/6 JoB for 7stars.
EV is -$2300.
I value 7stars benefits to be greater than $2300.

Add in the times where I find a 100%+ vp progressive, and that EV loss goes lower and lower.

2) Variance
yeah, that's why it's called gambling.
but losing $1200 to chase a 100%+ vp progressive (.25 denom) is disheartening.

3) Live poker for TC
my local casino lowered poker from 50 tc/hr to 17 tc/hr. :(

I'm not worried about being able to make Diamond.
I get 5k tc for being Aspirations lvl 1, plus another 4k tc from the 2016 4th Quarter promo.
that's 9k. I'm confident I can get at least another 16k tc to continue getting into the AC Diamond lounges for free.

4) EV confusion
omg.. thx Bob! I was confusing actual results with EV.
so I'm not an idiot for playing a 100% vp progressive over a 99% vp.
it's just that variance is kicking my ass right now...

5) I know I cant make 7stars by just playing 100% vp.
I thought I was wasting time/effort in playing it since I can't max out the tier credit bonus at .25 denom vp thus leading to a higher cost per tc.
Bob has pointed out the fallacy in that thinking.


Problems:
- Playing 14hrs in a day takes a toll on the body/eye sight.
- I've made Diamond Aspirations lvl 1 for the 2nd year in a row. That's my normal gambling lvl.
I'm playing significantly more going for 7stars.
I have the bankroll. I don't know if I have time/energy to do it.

Playing 14hrs in a day felt like a job to me.
for me, gambling is supposed to be entertainment

if you have the bankroll play a higher denom.
never really understood the glamour of 7 star
I have had noir card for years and doesn't get me much
I have platinum at Venetian and its a waste

the best top lever card use to be seminole Florida

at their coconut creek casino with an x card every single meal was free and with unlimited people
I had lunch catered for my office twice a week at no charge

wish they still had that stuff