Lost $2800 getting Aspirations lvl1

I had 16k tc.

one 5k tc day (15k tc, including bonus) + one 2.5k tc day (7.5tc, including bonus) + one 1k tc day (2k tc, including bonus) = 24.5k and total coin-in = $85000.
16k + 24.5 = 40.5k tc.

at one point I was up +$1700! (it was mostly from quads with multiplier.)
there was a stretch where I lost $1500 and only getting 300tc ($3k coin-in). 1500/3000 = 50% return.
WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was playing $2 triple play dstp (9/5 JoB), which is a 99% game and each deal was $42. :o
$4500 swing!! + 1 w2g :(

I should have set a stop loss limit at +$1500 and quit my Aspirations Lvl1 chase. :(

Should be paying to win. Not for some status symbol like Diamond, 7*'s, etc.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Should be paying to win. Not for some status symbol like Diamond, 7*'s, etc.

Sometimes they're one in the same ...

Quote: 100xOdds

I had 16k tc.

one 5k tc day (15k tc, including bonus) + one 2.5k tc day (7.5tc, including bonus) + one 1k tc day (2k tc, including bonus) = 24.5k and total coin-in = $85000.
16k + 24.5 = 40.5k tc.

at one point I was up +$1700! (it was mostly from quads with multiplier.)
there was a stretch where I lost $1500 and only getting 300tc ($3k coin-in). 1500/3000 = 50% return.

I was playing $2 triple play dstp (9/5 JoB), which is a 99% game and each deal was $42. :o
$4500 swing!! + 1 w2g :(

I should have set a stop loss limit at +$1500 and quit my Aspirations Lvl1 chase. :(

Pretty silly to state what you should have done, after knowing the results. You could have gone from 1500 to 3000.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Should be paying to win. Not for some status symbol like Diamond, 7*'s, etc.

You are confusing the status symbol with the value of the status symbol. The Aspiration Levels have value (airfare, tier scores the next year, comp dollars). Seven Stars has value (airfare, meals, cruises, etc.).

It's fair to debate whether the value of the level is worth the price --- but to declare that you should never go for one of these levels is misunderstanding what gambling is all about. If something gives you something that has $3,000 of value, and your average cost to get it is $1,000, it makes a lot of sense to go for it.

The proper price is measured in EV BEFORE you play --- not after. After the play is over, it's too late to decide not to do it. The "I should have quit earlier" theory based on the fact that you lost this time is a silly way to go about gambling. Not uncommon, but silly.

The problem with CZR levels is that you are only guaranteed the minimum benefits listed for the level. Maybe they are worth it to you, but ADT is still the key along with the other factors they use that nobody understands. I still know Diamond players who play slots in AC who get a lot more in offers than 7 Star players who visit almost every week and play VP.

It is always up to the individual to determine if the reward is worth the investment. One size doesn't fit all.

I agree with Bob. I've found a tramendous amount of value from my Diamond/Aspirations/etc. When doing DIAD "usually" your EV - 3SD could be up to about -$2500 (at least that's what it was when I did it). Knowing what I know now about what perks it does get you, as well as to better leverage things, etc, I think it would even be worth that -3SD price tag.

...p.s. Get aspirations level 2 and you'll start getting the good stuff (airfare, etc).

Quote: BobDancer

You are confusing the status symbol with the value of the status symbol. The Aspiration Levels have value (airfare, tier scores the next year, comp dollars). Seven Stars has value (airfare, meals, cruises, etc.).

It's fair to debate whether the value of the level is worth the price --- but to declare that you should never go for one of these levels is misunderstanding what gambling is all about. If something gives you something that has $3,000 of value, and your average cost to get it is $1,000, it makes a lot of sense to go for it.

The proper price is measured in EV BEFORE you play --- not after. After the play is over, it's too late to decide not to do it. The "I should have quit earlier" theory based on the fact that you lost this time is a silly way to go about gambling. Not uncommon, but silly.

I never said he should've quit while ahead, so please do not put these words in my mouth.

P.S. We're still waiting for you to answer Kevin Lewis's questions from a few weeks ago on your blog.

Quote: Romes

I agree with Bob. I've found a tramendous amount of value from my Diamond/Aspirations/etc. When doing DIAD "usually" your EV - 3SD could be up to about -$2500 (at least that's what it was when I did it). Knowing what I know now about what perks it does get you, as well as to better leverage things, etc, I think it would even be worth that -3SD price tag.

...p.s. Get aspirations level 2 and you'll start getting the good stuff (airfare, etc).

I agree, there really isn't much extra benefits at Level 1 unless you are using the Atlantis offer.

Quote: Boz

I agree, there really isn't much extra benefits at Level 1 unless you are using the Atlantis offer.

i was going to go for Aspirations lvl 2 this trip but decided not to because of the huge swings!

and yes 20/20 hindsight.
if i was winning or near breakeven when i reached Lvl1, i would have continued to Lvl2.
but a downward spiral from +$1700 to -$2800 put a damper on that.

btw- do i get both 5k tc for lvl 1 and 5k tc for lvl 2 towards next year? ie: 10k?

Quote: 100xOdds

i was going to go for Aspirations lvl 2 this trip but decided not to because of the huge swings!

and yes 20/20 hindsight.
if i was winning or near breakeven when i reached Lvl1, i would have continued to Lvl2.
but a downward spiral from +$1700 to -$2800 put a damper on that...

Honestly I wouldn't think like this. You're to calculate the EV cost (+/- 3SD) of getting Aspirations II and if you believe it's worth the risk you should play to it.

Let me put it better with an example perhaps... If the EV of a play of 100,000 hands is +$10,000 and 3SD is $10,000 that means the worse you can do in 100k hands is break even, and the best you could do in 100k hands is be +$20,000. So let's say after 5,000 hands you've hit a bad run and you're down $2k. Your thinking seems to be "CUT MY LOSSES!" when in reality it should be "I really need to play 95k more hands so I can get to EV!" or "geez this short term variance sure sucks."

We all know from different games that variance calms down towards expectation as you get towards "the long run," or a larger sampling size, or whatever you want to call it (blackjack = N0).

If you figured out your EV +/- 3SD before the play for Asp 2 and you're comfortable with that range, then you should play all the way to it. You said yourself you ran at 50% return for a chunk there... It seems as though you're affraid of that happening again when in reality the return of the game is what you theoretically run at every hand.

The base benefits for diamond have been EV+ for me. I paid $400 for diamond, but do not have the tier score to back it up - so it didn't change my comps dramatically.

Free parking, Diamond Lounges, VIP Lines, Free Room Upgrades, No Resort Fees. You get all around better service. It was worth every penny, I've saved $400 on resort fees and parking alone.