Nareed
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May 21st, 2012 at 7:29:45 PM permalink
At the Four Queens, both the $0.25 and multi-denomination JoB 9/6 machines had the double up feature active. Now, according to the Wizard's Odds site, this bet carries no house edge. So I regard it kind of like the odds bet in craps: you should definitely make it.

However, unlike craps, you bet the winnings. So it's not easy to hit even two pair for ten credits and risk them. Besides, how many times should you double up? Eventually you'll lose.

So here's what I did:

Whenever I hit Jacks or better, which is a winning in the same amount of the bet, I would try to double up. The way I see it, when you hit a 1 for 1 payoff, that doesn't mean you win, only that you didn't lose. So it makes sense to risk that non-loss on a zero-edge bet, right?

Also I always picked the same card. The way I see it, they all have the same chance until you see them, so why second guess myself on every loss thinking "I should have picked the second rather than the first!" So I always picked the third hidden card. And I doubled up only once.

On some occasions I tied. Say the card to beat was a King, and the card I picked was also a King. In that case the bet pushes and you can try it again. I always did.

I didn't keep records (I was on vacation), but going by my fuzzy memory I estimate I won perhaps half the time. Which would be what you'd expect, and also that my net gain from it was zero or close to it.

Any thoughts? Should I have risked it on two pair and three of a kind hits?
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JB
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JB
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May 21st, 2012 at 8:00:04 PM permalink
The only long-term effect of doubling is increasing the variance. I would recommend against it for that reason alone, but it is a free-will decision to double, as is the number of attempts at doubling before collecting.

If you must make use of it, I would recommend only doing it on pushes (i.e. Jacks or Better, which returns your bet) and only attempting it once (if you succeed, stop and collect the win) to keep the added variance to a minimum.
98Clubs
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May 21st, 2012 at 8:01:46 PM permalink
In theory, at least, every win, regardless. But I would not parlay te Royal, Str-Fl, or Quads. JMH2c
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Mission146
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May 21st, 2012 at 8:31:36 PM permalink
I agree with JB's second paragraph. My theory is that the expectation of the initial bet was a loss, anyway, so I'm really not losing anything by taking the 50/50 gamble. With past-result independency, you have a better chance of Doubling for 2:1 than you do of either breaking even or winning money on the next hand.

However, if I win on that Double, then I would go ahead and try to Double one more time. The Double-Ups are past-result independent, so (given that you have broken even) you have a better chance of a 3:1 payout (two successful double-ups) than you do of getting even-money, (J-J, Q-Q, K-K, A-A, x-x-x) Two Pair, Three-of-a-Kind or Straight on the next hand, combined. The expected return is also better...because you're 50% to make it happen. I would say your Double-Up expectations are more positive than taking the 2:1 and playing another hand.

Actually, with those odds, you should probably continue to Double-Up even beyond that...but I wouldn't. I should, but I wouldn't.

If you're playing for duration, though, take the even-money.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Nareed
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May 22nd, 2012 at 5:29:57 AM permalink
Thanks for the replies.

I don't have to use the feature, but it seemed a good idea when scoring what's essentially a push


Quote: Mission146

I agree with JB's second paragraph. My theory is that the expectation of the initial bet was a loss, anyway, so I'm really not losing anything by taking the 50/50 gamble.



That was more or less my thinking, except I considered hitting Jacks or better a push rather than a loss. It still seemed like a better idea to double up then.

Quote:

However, if I win on that Double, then I would go ahead and try to Double one more time. The Double-Ups are past-result independent, so (given that you have broken even) you have a better chance of a 3:1 payout (two successful double-ups) than you do of getting even-money, (J-J, Q-Q, K-K, A-A, x-x-x) Two Pair, Three-of-a-Kind or Straight on the next hand, combined.



That i had not considered. I'm not sure I understand it, though. I did try a second double the first few times. actually I moved to the multi-denomination machines and played nickels for a while to test out the feature (risking less money on experiments and all that). One time I managed to double up all the way to 40 credits from 5 (that's three doubles: 5 to 10, 10 to 20 and 20 to 40)


Quote:

Actually, with those odds, you should probably continue to Double-Up even beyond that...but I wouldn't. I should, but I wouldn't.



I wouldn't, either. Once you do win money it's harder to risk it.
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DJTeddyBear
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May 22nd, 2012 at 6:37:37 AM permalink
Nareed -

Thanks for starting this thread.

I rarely play video poker. I NEVER play slots.

Because I never bothered to investigate it, I assumed there IS a house edge mechanism. I assumed that ties lose. As such, I would categorize it as any other stupid slot machine bet: Put your money in, and see if you won something - and usually you didn't.

That it has no house edge is something I never considered.

Thanks to this discussion, I too will be trying the double-up, on those dang one pair is a push "winners".
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ThatDonGuy
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May 22nd, 2012 at 7:47:38 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

At the Four Queens, both the $0.25 and multi-denomination JoB 9/6 machines had the double up feature active. Now, according to the Wizard's Odds site, this bet carries no house edge. So I regard it kind of like the odds bet in craps: you should definitely make it.

However, unlike craps, you bet the winnings. So it's not easy to hit even two pair for ten credits and risk them. Besides, how many times should you double up? Eventually you'll lose.


How many times do you double up? That depends. How much money would you bet on a coin toss?

Keep in mind that, at any point, it's your money, since you can stop and cash out at any time.
Nareed
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May 22nd, 2012 at 8:29:17 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Thanks for starting this thread.



You're welcome.

Quote:

I rarely play video poker. I NEVER play slots.



I play a ridiculous bet slot for $5 at the end of each trip. It's tradition :) But I digress.

Quote:

Because I never bothered to investigate it, I assumed there IS a house edge mechanism. I assumed that ties lose. As such, I would categorize it as any other stupid slot machine bet: Put your money in, and see if you won something - and usually you didn't.



Maybe I should explain how it works.

When you activate the double up feature, the machine deals five cards. One is face up and marked as "dealer," the other four are face down. You pick one, which then gets marked as "player." If the player card beats the dealer's in rank, you win. If it's lower, you lose. If it's the same rank, you tie and can try again.

Take note sometimes you can't win. If the dealer card is an ace, then the best you can do is tie. Sometimes the dealer card is the highest dealt and cannot be beaten. But sometimes you can't lose, either. Sometimes the dealer card is the lowest dealt and any card you pick will beat it.

The face down cards are revealed after you pick one. First the one you picked, then the rest. A few times the dealer got, say 7, and all the other cards were higher.

Quote:

Thanks to this discussion, I too will be trying the double-up, on those dang one pair is a push "winners".



Well, we seem to have reached a consensus on when to double up.
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DJTeddyBear
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May 22nd, 2012 at 8:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I rarely play video poker. I NEVER play slots.

I play a ridiculous bet slot for $5 at the end of each trip. It's tradition :) But I digress.

You reminded me that I occasionally DO play regular slots.


For weeks prior to my first trip to Vegas in the lat 1990's, I had a few quarters in my pocket, at the ready, to plunk down in the first slot machine I saw. It was 38 steps after getting out of the plane. I think I won $2.

On my trip earlier this month, on my way home, I got bumped. So, I called my wife and told her I had a few hours to kill in the airport. She asked me to put $20 in a machine, "For her." But then she followed it up saying I should play a machine she would play. Great. I can never figure out what she likes or dislikes, now I get this request. Sigh. I found a Wheel of Fortune machine and quickly lost the $20.

About an hour later she called to ask how I did. When I told her I lost, she told me to put another $20 in. I said OK.

I told her I'd play the $20, but did not. Does that count as a win?




Quote: Nareed

Maybe I should explain how it works....

Thanks. Got it.


Quote: Nareed

Well, we seem to have reached a consensus on when to double up.

Sounds like we do.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ibeatyouraces
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May 22nd, 2012 at 8:46:06 AM permalink
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Hunterhill
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May 22nd, 2012 at 12:24:50 PM permalink
I saw someone do it by mistake with 4aces and a kicker on dbl dbl bonus,he was about to complain but the dealers card was a 3 so he went with it and won.
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Mission146
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:05:11 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

How many times do you double up? That depends. How much money would you bet on a coin toss?

Keep in mind that, at any point, it's your money, since you can stop and cash out at any time.



Fair point, but your odds of winning a coin toss with a fair tosser, no spin, and a balanced coin are better than winning a Video Poker hand, as is the expected value of the toss.
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Tiltpoul
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:06:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'd like to see someone with the courage to do it after a royal and win and have pictures of it. That'll be a great story.



The times I got a Royal Flush I don't think the Double Up feature even was offered. I know at Resorts Tunica it wasn't even offered; the machine locked up at .25.
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Mission146
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:10:47 PM permalink
I've never seen a Natural Royal (or Royal on JoB) to know, unfortunately. The best hand I have ever received in Deuces Wild is Four Deuces (Twice, Lifetime) and I have had one Straight-Flush on JoB.

King-High Straight Flush, actually. Holding K-Q-J-10 of Clubs, very bittersweet win. Better than expectations though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:18:29 PM permalink
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:20:23 PM permalink
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bigfoot66
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:24:32 PM permalink
I think that we are all overlooking a very important part of this whole thing, and that is does the double up feature count as additional coin-in for slot club purposes? If so, then you have an advantage play on your hands and ought to take advantage of it.
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Nareed
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I think that we are all overlooking a very important part of this whole thing, and that is does the double up feature count as additional coin-in for slot club purposes? If so, then you have an advantage play on your hands and ought to take advantage of it.



When I told the Wizard about it in Vegas, he mentioned it doesn't count as coin-in. At my level of play it hardly makes any difference.
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TIMSPEED
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May 22nd, 2012 at 2:42:11 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I have had one Straight-Flush on JoB.
King-High Straight Flush, actually. Holding K-Q-J-10 of Clubs, very bittersweet win. Better than expectations though.


I had the SAME hand this weekend playing $ JoB...fucking got the same card as you..DAMN that ace of clubs! $250 vs $4000!
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Mission146
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May 22nd, 2012 at 4:12:19 PM permalink
I'll take that 9c over a 4d in that situation any day of the week, though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
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May 22nd, 2012 at 5:44:34 PM permalink
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TIMSPEED
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May 23rd, 2012 at 2:29:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'd be tempted right now. Playing $1.00 double double bonus spin poker max bet, $45 a spin, dealt 3 aces and hit 4th. 2 without a kicker and one with for $3720.00 jackpot.


I don't think it offers it on W2G's, because when you hit above $1199.99, it "locks" the machine up...or at least it has everytime I've gotten a "jackpot (all of three times, lol)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
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