TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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March 13th, 2012 at 2:19:24 PM permalink
Since this was just mentioned and I've never actually (cared) to do the math of the "Double Up" feature...
If you were playing 25c (5 quarters) and you double'd on a single-unit win, and kept going 10x in a row..you'd have $1280...
What would the odds of this happening be??
I know the odds of getting a Royal Flush on JoB are about 40,000:1
Are the odds of winning 10x in a row better or worse?
I know the odds of winning any ONE of them is 50/50
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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March 13th, 2012 at 2:23:35 PM permalink
The probability of winning one double-up is 1/2, so the probability of winning 10 of them in a row is 1/2 to the 10th power, or 1/1024.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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March 13th, 2012 at 2:55:48 PM permalink
In reality, I think it would be tough to get past 13 doubles. The odds are, that on one of those 13, the machine will hold an unbeatable Ace. You will be drawing dead unless you can catch one of the three remaining aces to eek out a push.
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 13th, 2012 at 2:58:36 PM permalink
Quote: TIMSPEED

I know the odds of winning any ONE of them is 50/50

Games by what manufacture?
I was playing Game King video poker, I think, and 4 times in a row on the double-up feature, not one of the 4 cards that I could have chosen would have beat the card showing?
Where is the 50/50 there?

Some, I think deuces wild that I have played a few times, shows you 3 cards, low, middle and high and you must choose high to win, middle is a push.
So, I guess that one is the 50/50.

So I must conclude that all double-up features are not created equal.
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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 13th, 2012 at 4:18:44 PM permalink
Unless the games are rigged, all double up features are created equally. and all have a 50-50 chance of you winning.

but the reality is, at what point do you not risk the money on a coin flip?

if you are playing a 25 cent game and win even money on the first hand and start the double up routine...

1. 1.25
2. 2.50
3. 5.00
4. 10
5. 20
6. 40

would you, a 25-cent video poker player, risk $40 on a coin flip?
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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March 13th, 2012 at 4:27:13 PM permalink
I put $50 in odds on craps...would I put $640 on a coin flip...is the question...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Triplell
Triplell
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March 13th, 2012 at 5:52:53 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Games by what manufacture?
I was playing Game King video poker, I think, and 4 times in a row on the double-up feature, not one of the 4 cards that I could have chosen would have beat the card showing?
Where is the 50/50 there?

Some, I think deuces wild that I have played a few times, shows you 3 cards, low, middle and high and you must choose high to win, middle is a push.
So, I guess that one is the 50/50.

So I must conclude that all double-up features are not created equal.



The computer puts 4 cards out there (or 5 or whatever) for you to choose from. Are you saying that allowing the computer to choose first changes the odds from 50/50?

If the computer wasn't allowed to ever choose the highest card available, then the odds would actually be in your favour.

Think of it this way. You and me both grab a card from a standard playing card deck. If I turn over the card first, who has the advantage? It doesn't matter, either way, we are turning over the card we selected...
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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March 13th, 2012 at 9:28:19 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Games by what manufacture?
I was playing Game King video poker, I think, and 4 times in a row on the double-up feature, not one of the 4 cards that I could have chosen would have beat the card showing?
Where is the 50/50 there?

Some, I think deuces wild that I have played a few times, shows you 3 cards, low, middle and high and you must choose high to win, middle is a push.
So, I guess that one is the 50/50.

So I must conclude that all double-up features are not created equal.



IGT makes Game King, and those games are all 50/50. The game randomly chooses 4 cards for you and one for the house. It was just chance that you couldn't win on those games and if you play long enough, you'll see the opposite and get a game you can't lose.
I heart Crystal Math.
4andaKicker
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June 20th, 2012 at 1:10:57 PM permalink
My information is that the machines limit you to 5 double ups per hand. So you can't get to numbers as big as you are saying there in one swoop. I have personally doubled 4 times successfully but it is nerve wracking and not fun to lose on the third and fourth attempts. Once in a while, I'll double on a 5 unit win as far as I can, but I've yet to make a 5th double.
buzzpaff
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June 20th, 2012 at 1:24:50 PM permalink
" Once in a while, I'll double on a 5 unit win as far as I can, but I've yet to make a 5th double."

that's because you have wasted a golden opportunity whenever you stop at 4 in a row twice !
Nareed
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June 20th, 2012 at 1:30:22 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

IGT makes Game King, and those games are all 50/50. The game randomly chooses 4 cards for you and one for the house. It was just chance that you couldn't win on those games and if you play long enough, you'll see the opposite and get a game you can't lose.



I can vouch for that. Regardless of the result, the machine uncovers all the cards when the bet is settled. So you can see sometimes you couldn't possibly win, but sometimes you couldn't possibly lose.

On a nickel 6/9 JoB I doubled up a two pair (10 credits) twice to a grand total of 40 credits. Later that session I tried doubling a high pair (5 credits) three times, but I lost on the third attempt twice straight. That was when I decided to only double up 5 credit pays, and only once.
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4andaKicker
4andaKicker
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June 20th, 2012 at 2:01:44 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

" Once in a while, I'll double on a 5 unit win as far as I can, but I've yet to make a 5th double."

that's because you have wasted a golden opportunity whenever you stop at 4 in a row twice !



No not at all. I have a limit also to how much I'll risk on a coin flip. In the cases where I made my 4th doubles, I wasn't doubling 5 unit wins. 4 doubles off a Full House payout was plenty to satisfy me. The amount you can make or lose fooling around with a 5 unit double (at quarter machines) is pretty trivial.
buzzpaff
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June 20th, 2012 at 2:05:00 PM permalink
The fifth double is worth as much as the previous 4 combined. What a golden opportunity to miss !
4andaKicker
4andaKicker
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June 20th, 2012 at 3:07:16 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

The fifth double is worth as much as the previous 4 combined. What a golden opportunity to miss !



Yes, but I've never converted on it. I've tried on the 5 unit doubles because losing that much didn't bother me, but how great is it when you always lose? I made more on my successful limited doubling for midlevel payouts than I will ever ever see chasing 5 double ups at the 5 unit level.
winmonkeyspit3
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June 20th, 2012 at 3:53:54 PM permalink
Somebody made a thread a while ago comparing the double up feature to free odds in craps. You can get more action without giving away any more expected value. You have to keep in mind your bankroll though. There are casinos that offer 100x or even 1000x odds in craps, but few players lay these odds as they don't have the bankroll to handle the variance.
Nareed
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June 20th, 2012 at 3:56:56 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

Somebody made a thread a while ago comparing the double up feature to free odds in craps.



That would be me. I'm given to understand it's a zero-edge bet, like the odds bet in craps.

My conlcusion, and the consensus on a thread about it, was to use it only for non-losing payouts (ie the high pair in JoB and other 1 for 1 payouts), and only double up once.
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buzzpaff
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June 20th, 2012 at 4:37:44 PM permalink
That makes as much sense as only take 1X odds when 5X is available.
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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June 20th, 2012 at 5:10:11 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

That would be me. I'm given to understand it's a zero-edge bet, like the odds bet in craps.

My conlcusion, and the consensus on a thread about it, was to use it only for non-losing payouts (ie the high pair in JoB and other 1 for 1 payouts), and only double up once.



I have to disagree with you here Nareed. If you have a bankroll that can afford it, double up to the maximum number of times. Heck, if I got a royal I would double unless it put the win into a higher tax range. Free odds are free bets, I play through hundreds of thousands of dollars from my mid stakes blackjack play on a negative expectation game, why not take the chance on a 50/50 game? It's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you made a good bet. And to me, 50/50 is a better bet than most, yes there are some 100%+ games out there, video poker.
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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June 20th, 2012 at 5:10:23 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

That makes as much sense as only take 1X odds when 5X is available.



Agreed.
Nareed
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June 20th, 2012 at 6:00:47 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

I have to disagree with you here Nareed. If you have a bankroll that can afford it, double up to the maximum number of times. Heck, if I got a royal I would double unless it put the win into a higher tax range.



Hey, it's your money to waste as you see fit.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
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