Software to analyze unusual pay tables?
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Or a game where a heart flush pays extra.
Thanks for any recommendations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgQmuYUvKUM
He seems like an intelligent fellow. You should probably check him out.
Quote: NDnathanI'm thinking of something odd like queens wild that includes a payout for two pair.
Or a game where a heart flush pays extra.
Thanks for any recommendations
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It's more convenient to do this in Excel, 10 minutes (if not less) and that's it
That’s what I said:Quote: DobrijIt's more convenient to do this in Excel, 10 minutes (if not less) and that's it
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To elaborate…Quote: DJTeddyBear
This is very simple, high school level probability & statistics kind of stuff. Easily done with Excel.
Quote: itsmejeffAn enterprising gentleman made a video showing how to analyze video poker. It would work for any game with any rules.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgQmuYUvKUM
He seems like an intelligent fellow. You should probably check him out.
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That was done before AI changed everything.
Quote: billryanQuote: itsmejeffAn enterprising gentleman made a video showing how to analyze video poker. It would work for any game with any rules.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgQmuYUvKUM
He seems like an intelligent fellow. You should probably check him out.
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That was done before AI changed everything.
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What has AI changed in regard to analyzing video poker?
Quote: DJTeddyBear
This is not an Excel-solvable problem, as you have to calculate the best play for each dealt hand separately based on the pay table.
If there are no additional cards like jokers, and neither the specific suits nor the order of the cards does not matter (i.e. there is no separate payout for, say, a sequential Royal, or a Spade flush), there are 134,459 different hands you have to analyze. If order or suits does matter, make that 2,598,960 hands.
I doubt that an app exists that would let you select anywhere near every possible hand result. It's hard enough to "hard code" those as it is.
For example, you need two entirely different methodologies to determine a "deuces wild" hand from a "no wild cards" hand.
Quote: ThatDonGuy
This is not an Excel-solvable problem, as you have to calculate the best play for each dealt hand separately based on the pay table.
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If nothing is taken away from the standard game but only additional payments are added, then the optimal strategy should not change.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanQuote: itsmejeffAn enterprising gentleman made a video showing how to analyze video poker. It would work for any game with any rules.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgQmuYUvKUM
He seems like an intelligent fellow. You should probably check him out.
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That was done before AI changed everything.
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What has AI changed in regard to analyzing video poker?
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AI changed everything. You don't realize it yet.
I don’t think this is correct. If you keep the standard game and the add a bonus for a straight for example of course this would change the strategy if the bonus was large enough.Quote: DobrijQuote: ThatDonGuy
This is not an Excel-solvable problem, as you have to calculate the best play for each dealt hand separately based on the pay table.
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If nothing is taken away from the standard game but only additional payments are added, then the optimal strategy should not change.
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Quote: HunterhillI don’t think this is correct. If you keep the standard game and the add a bonus for a straight for example of course this would change the strategy if the bonus was large enough.Quote: DobrijQuote: ThatDonGuy
This is not an Excel-solvable problem, as you have to calculate the best play for each dealt hand separately based on the pay table.
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If nothing is taken away from the standard game but only additional payments are added, then the optimal strategy should not change.
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The author wrote that they pay extra for a flush of hearts.
Then please explain with examples when and under what conditions it will change?
Quote: DobrijThe author wrote that they pay extra for a flush of hearts.
Then please explain with examples when and under what conditions it will change?
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I do not think you have thought this through.
Imagine you are in a casino. You sit down a game of full pay Jacks Or Better. Your first hand is:
AH 2C 2H 8H 6H
Which cards do you hold and why?
Video poker strategy is based on value. You hold that cards that give you the highest value hand for possible outcomes. If there is a bonus for hearts or whatever, you have to consider how the value is changed. There might be situations where the player "goes for the flush", in the vernacular of the game, only for hearts. Maybe bonus flush hearts megapoker pays less on all other flushes, so you would play AC 2C 2H 8C 6C differently than AH 2C 2H 8H 6H.
Quote: itsmejeffQuote: DobrijThe author wrote that they pay extra for a flush of hearts.
Then please explain with examples when and under what conditions it will change?
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I do not think you have thought this through.
Imagine you are in a casino. You sit down a game of full pay Jacks Or Better. Your first hand is:
AH 2C 2H 8H 6H
Which cards do you hold and why?
Video poker strategy is based on value. You hold that cards that give you the highest value hand for possible outcomes. If there is a bonus for hearts or whatever, you have to consider how the value is changed. There might be situations where the player "goes for the flush", in the vernacular of the game, only for hearts. Maybe bonus flush hearts megapoker pays less on all other flushes, so you would play AC 2C 2H 8C 6C differently than AH 2C 2H 8H 6H.
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All this is clear.
Please do not avoid my specific question. And give an example under what conditions the optimal solution will change
Optimal strategy changes based on the pay table - not the other way around. The hold may increase based on how many mistakes players make, but that has nothing to do with the edge.
Rule changes, like the heart flush thing, merely means that there’s an additional line on the pay table.
That’s why I said it’s a simple probability & statistics question that can be resolved with Excel.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI may be wrong here, but I think the original question was how to calculate pay tables. I assume that means to calculate the house edge under optimal strategy.
Optimal strategy changes based on the pay table - not the other way around. The hold may increase based on how many mistakes players make, but that has nothing to do with the edge.
Rule changes, like the heart flush thing, merely means that there’s an additional line on the pay table.
That’s why I said it’s a simple probability & statistics question that can be resolved with Excel.
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That's not how I interpreted it. I think "Analyze" means "determine the overall expected return," which requires calculating the strategy.
Even if it does mean "using the basic strategy," you can't just add some value to the ER of each play.
Think of it this way: look at all of the hands in Jacks or Better where the play is, "Draw all five cards." Now, add the two pay table rows from Double Bonus (Four Aces; Four 2s-4s). Not every one of the hands in "draw all five cards" is going to be equally as likely to get one of these extra results.
Besides - even if it was that easy, you would still need to know:
(a) How many of the 2,598,960 deals correspond to each strategy play, and
(b) what the ER change is for each strategy play.
Let's say a heart flush payed 1 billion for a 5 coin bet. You would discard any non-heart, even a dealt royal flush of spades. What if it payed 1000 instead? Would you keep the trips or three to the flush with 5s 5c 5h 7h Th? How much would it have to pay in order to hold a single junk heart instead of discarding all?
To analyze a game, you need to know the EV differences of every possible hold for every possible hand to select the optimal holding. For each of the 2,598,960 starting hands, there are millions(?) of combinations of hold selections and replacement cards. Some very, very smart people have figured out some shortcuts, but the number of combinations remains staggering.
I agree with the poster who stated it is unlikely that any commercial software offers the ability to specify any hand type. itsmejeff, thank you for the link, are you familiar with the videos? Is the groundwork there to customize the program in the ways I am envisioning?
Quote: NDnathanSome people are misinterpreting the question. They are answering something like 'if I follow a particular strategy for one VP game, what would be the EV difference if I followed that same strategy on a different pay table'. Which is an extremely elementary question and not what I'm asking.
Let's say a heart flush payed 1 billion for a 5 coin bet. You would discard any non-heart, even a dealt royal flush of spades. What if it payed 1000 instead? Would you keep the trips or three to the flush with 5s 5c 5h 7h Th? How much would it have to pay in order to hold a single junk heart instead of discarding all?
To analyze a game, you need to know the EV differences of every possible hold for every possible hand to select the optimal holding. For each of the 2,598,960 starting hands, there are millions(?) of combinations of hold selections and replacement cards. Some very, very smart people have figured out some shortcuts, but the number of combinations remains staggering.
I agree with the poster who stated it is unlikely that any commercial software offers the ability to specify any hand type. itsmejeff, thank you for the link, are you familiar with the videos? Is the groundwork there to customize the program in the ways I am envisioning?
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The VP tools on wizardofodds.com can be used both to create a strategy and get an estimate of the return of the game. There are a few existing games that require similar techniques, such as Suited Royals, ACE$ Bonus, and Shockwave Poker, although the latter can now be analyzed directly (thanks Wiz et al!)
First, create a strategy using all the payouts except the special for heart flushes. This is Strategy 1. Next create a strategy using the hearts payout for flushes and all the payouts for the other hands. This is strategy 2. On Strategy 1, indicate any flush, straight flush, or royal flush holds as either being “no H” or “C/D/S”, for Clubs, Diamonds, and Spades. From Strategy 2, list any flush, straight flush, or royal flush holds in their respective places on Strategy 1, making sure to designate these as “H”, for Hearts. Now Strategy 1 is your new strategy for your game.
For an estimate of the return of the game, use the average value of all four flushes as your flush payout and run the analyzer.
Quote: camapl<snip>For an estimate of the return of the game, use the average value of all four flushes as your flush payout and run the analyzer.
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camapl,
I don't think this is quite right, because if a heart flush pays a bonus, then heart flushes will comprise more than one-fourth of all flushes, since the strategy will prioritize heart flushes over non-heart flushes.
Granted, if the bonus is small, say 9 for a heart flush vs. 6 for others, your approximation will be close to the correct answer.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Quote: DogHandQuote: camapl<snip>For an estimate of the return of the game, use the average value of all four flushes as your flush payout and run the analyzer.
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camapl,
I don't think this is quite right, because if a heart flush pays a bonus, then heart flushes will comprise more than one-fourth of all flushes, since the strategy will prioritize heart flushes over non-heart flushes.
Granted, if the bonus is small, say 9 for a heart flush vs. 6 for others, your approximation will be close to the correct answer.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
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I agree that the larger the bonus on one flush, the less accurate the estimated return will be. Should have written something to that effect above…
I suppose we could average the returns of the two pay tables to get a “more accurate” figure… Take the return of the game with the bonus flush payout, add three times the return from the regular flush payout, and divide the sum by four. Unfortunately (as I believe DH alluded to), this will not account for hands where you might hold say 3 low Hearts instead of 2 to a Royal of another suit, for example.
