Video poker progressive that cannot be hit
Quote: SOOPOO
There can be nothing less relevant than if you would or would not fly somewhere to take advantage of a highly +EV progressive. My point is that the ‘fixer’ likely lives near the casino in question. And likely (although not assuredly) is aware that there is meat on that bone.
I would say that most likely the fixer lives in the Reno area of Nevada. That is where most of the IGT programming is done.
Quote:
February 20, 2024
To Whom it May Concern,
I am writing to report a set of six linked progressive games at the Durango casino that I strongly believe to not be functioning properly, to the strong disadvantage of players.
The machines all offer the video poker game Triple Triple Bonus with two progressives. Here are the machine numbers: 300030, 300031, 300033, 300034, 300035, 300083.
The two progressives are for:
• Four 2’s-4’s plus an ace
• Four aces + 2-4.
I allege the former progressive is impossible to win. Following is my evidence.
I played the game yesterday, on Feb 19, for 3 hours and 44 minutes. In this time, I earned 1305, which suggests $2610 money bet. Some of this time I was the only one on the six machines in question and did the math to determine the meter rise on both progressives was 0.75%.
When I left, the progressive for four 2’s-4’s plus an ace was at $6324.97. When this game is not progressive, a $0.25 game would start at $1,000. Assuming the progressive started at $1,000, it grew by $5324.97.
If we conservatively assume the player is following optimal strategy for this game and pay table when not progressive, the probability of winning four 2’s-4’s plus an ace is 1 in 12,773. The total amount bet since that meter started would have been $5324.97/0.0075 = $709,996. At $1.25 per bet, that is 567,997 bets made.
The number of times the player should have won four 2’s – 4’s plus an ace in 567,997 bets at a probability of 1 in 12,773 is 567,997/12,773 = 44.47. The probability of going this many cycles without the hand being won is 1 in 20,568,363,602,043,500,000. I assure you this is a conservative estimate. If we assume modifications in player strategy due to the large progressive, I calculate the jackpot should have been won anywhere up to 58 times, depending on the size of the jackpot at the time of play.
I understand that you previously received a complaint about this game from a player named name redacted. Please do not dismiss my complaint as a matter already adjudicated. I am not claiming a malfunction happened to me. I am complaining on principle in the name of honest gaming.
A skeptic might argue that perhaps the Durango pumped up the progressive artificially. I don’t know that they didn’t. However, I have anecdotal evidence of many players who experienced a malfunction when drawing to a hand one or two cards away from four 2’s-4’s plus an ace. My best explanation is that the progressive in question has actually been hit many times. When it does the machines trigger a malfunction. When the game is reset, different cards on the draw are shown. I do not allege deliberate cheating, but that the game has an accidental coding error.
There is significant evidence that this game is not functioning properly. I ask that the game be immediately shut down and carefully investigated.
If you have any questions, I can be reached via the means below. Thank you for your serious consideration of my complaint.
Best Regards,
Michael Shackleford
contact information redacted
Quote: WizardThank you Luckylucyano for your outstanding post! I hope he won't mind me saying that while I was playing a friend of his joined me for about the last hour. During this time, I spoke with Lucky on his friend's phone.
Sorry for the late arrival, but I had to finish serving a five-day penance. I played this game yesterday. Following is my report.
Time played = 3 hours, 44 minutes
Points earned = 1305
Money bet = $2610
Money lost = $600
The meter for four 2's-4's + ace was at $6324.97 when I left at 5:47 PM. I will call this the "big progressive."
I can confirm based on some time playing my myself that the meter rise on both progressives is 0.75%.
It is my understanding that the progressive for four A's + 2-4 operates normally, which is why it is much lower. I will call this the "small progressive."
If we assume optimal strategy for the base game and pay table, with no deviations for the progressive, a cycle is 12,773 hands. If we assume optimal strategy a small jackpot of $1465 and a big jackpot of $6183, a cycle is 9,804 hands.
Let's be conservative and assume a 12,773 hand cycle. Let's also assume the meter started at $1,000. At a 0.75 meter rise, after doing the math, it should have been 44.5 times. The probability of going that many cycles without being hit is 1 in 20,568,363,602,043,500,000.
A skeptic might say the Durango dumped some money into it from another game. First, I am not sure if this can be done on a GameKing. Second, based on discussion yesterday at the time, it has had many malfunctions already.
For the record, there are six machines that have this progressive. Each game has two numbers on the lights. Here are the machine numbers that offer this game:
838-01, 838-02, 838-05, 838-06, 838-07, 838-08
300030, 300031, 300033, 300034, 300035, 300083
I made videos every time I was two cards aways from hitting the big progressive, but never did I get a malfunction.
I plan to write a letter of complaint to Gaming today, requesting they investigate the game.
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Thank you very much Wizard. Hope it can be resolved soon.
That’s why you are THE WIZARD!
The OP thanked you. The ENTIRE gaming community should as well.
Question….. do they ‘know’ you? Or would the same letter from me generate the same response from them?
Quote: SOOPOOSo you dropped $500+ in the name of research and fair gaming!
That’s why you are THE WIZARD!
Yes, I did. $600 in fact. I was hoping to catch the malfunction on video, but it simply didn't happen to me.
Quote:The OP thanked you. The ENTIRE gaming community should as well.
Thank you and you're welcome.
Quote:Question….. do they ‘know’ you? Or would the same letter from me generate the same response from them?
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Yes, they know me, probably as a PITA. However, I'd like to think we have the same mission of keeping gaming open and honest in Nevada. They did an outstanding job when I complained about a promotion at the Las Vegas Club and hope they bring the same level of attention to this complaint.
Quote: WizardHere is a draft of a letter I plan to send to Gaming. I welcome all comments and corrections before I do.
Quote:
In this time, I earned 1305, which suggests $2610 money bet.
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Should say, "In this time, I earned 1305 points..."
Quote: TaxrBuxShould say, "In this time, I earned 1305 points..."
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Thank you. The letter has been sent so no further corrections will be needed.
Here are the machines when I left yesterday.
Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p9N91LxDW0
Quote: Gaming Reply
Mr. Shackleford,
Your complaint to the Nevada Gaming Control Board has been received. I will have an agent conduct an inspection on the machines in question to verify the payback. Per Regulation 14.040, machines must pay back an aggregate amount of no less than 75%. Please also be aware that, per NRS 463.120, we cannot share investigative findings with the public. Please let us know if you have any further questions.
Respectfully,
Name Redacted, Senior Agent
Enforcement Division
Nevada Gaming Control Board
P: (702) 383-7550
F: (702) 486-2230
I would like to enlist the help of the anyone available to keep an eye on those machines to see if anything happens.
As to the 75% rule, I do not dispute the game is compliant with that. If the player uses optimal strategy for the current jackpot sizes, and never hit the large jackpot, it would still return 87%.
Quote: WizardI got a reply already from Gaming, at 10:18 AM today. My complaint was sent in at 7:31 AM, so all due points for a quick reply. I redact the agent's name out of respect for his/her privacy.
Quote: Gaming Reply
Mr. Shackleford,
Your complaint to the Nevada Gaming Control Board has been received. I will have an agent conduct an inspection on the machines in question to verify the payback. Per Regulation 14.040, machines must pay back an aggregate amount of no less than 75%. Please also be aware that, per NRS 463.120, we cannot share investigative findings with the public. Please let us know if you have any further questions.
Respectfully,
Name Redacted, Senior Agent
Enforcement Division
Nevada Gaming Control Board
P: (702) 383-7550
F: (702) 486-2230
I would like to enlist the help of the anyone available to keep an eye on those machines to see if anything happens.
As to the 75% rule, I do not dispute the game is compliant with that. If the player uses optimal strategy for the current jackpot sizes, and never hit the large jackpot, it would still return 87%.
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I am sorry to say but that looks like a templated response. Most likely they will have someone go check the meters and say it is compliant without really exploring the stated issue. Hopefully I am wrong.
I am assuming you sent that to the Enforcement Division, if so I would recommend you also send it to Jim Barbie, Chief of the Technology Division and Joel Eickhoff who is the Senior Engineer for Gaming Devices. Those are the guys that deal directly with software issues.
Quote: SlotmassacreThe games have been pulled. I have pictures and video but doesn’t seem I’m allowed to post pics yet 🤔
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HEY GUYS ITS THE GUY FROM THE VIDEO
post them to imgur.. copy the links to here but S P A C E T H E M O U T and ill post em
Quote: DRichI am assuming you sent that to the Enforcement Division, if so I would recommend you also send it to Jim Barbie, Chief of the Technology Division and Joel Eickhoff who is the Senior Engineer for Gaming Devices. Those are the guys that deal directly with software issues.
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I believe I did send it to the enforcement division. Hopefully somebody will understand the nature of my complaint and send it to whoever deals with technical issues. I don't want to blast the whole agency with Emails, hoping to hit the right person. It's not my style.
Quote: SlotmassacreThe games have been pulled. I have pictures and video but doesn’t seem I’m allowed to post pics yet 🤔
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That's great to hear! I know others have offered help already, but you may also send me a private message and I can post anything you send me.
I hope they find software bug and not just sweep problem under the rug by removing progressive.
Quote: JohnzimboSo they will likely roll that progressive over to some other machines?
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Normally they do but they have up to a year to do that. They did remove progressive before when we complained back in December and put it back in at different location without fixing it. No guarantee they will not do that again.
Quote: LuckylucyanoQuote: JohnzimboSo they will likely roll that progressive over to some other machines?
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Normally they do but they have up to a year to do that. They did remove progressive before when we complained back in December and put it back in at different location without fixing it. No guarantee they will not do that again.
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too many people watching this thread... somehow we got slotmassacre in a timely manner here.. im assuming his google analytics told him we were talking about this and his video
but i will defer until we see it
Wait.. they moved the progressive once before?Quote: LuckylucyanoQuote: JohnzimboSo they will likely roll that progressive over to some other machines?
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Normally they do but they have up to a year to do that. They did remove progressive before when we complained back in December and put it back in at different location without fixing it. No guarantee they will not do that again.
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so it could have been alot more than it is now? ($6.3k)
Triple bonus Actual RTP 96.43 %
All kinds of stuff on the screen
They got the laptop and sheets of paper out that look like tables
Kind of walking by occasionally and peeking
Quote: 100xOddsWait.. they moved the progressive once before?Quote: LuckylucyanoQuote: JohnzimboSo they will likely roll that progressive over to some other machines?
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Normally they do but they have up to a year to do that. They did remove progressive before when we complained back in December and put it back in at different location without fixing it. No guarantee they will not do that again.
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so it could have been alot more than it is now? ($6.3k)
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No, I assume they just put the progressive back with the same amount on it.
Quote: terapinedWhat does this mean
Triple bonus Actual RTP 96.43 %
All kinds of stuff on the screen
They got the laptop and sheets of paper out that look like tables
Kind of walking by occasionally and peeking
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From this picture it seems like they are looking at return of the game instead of looking at why jackpot cannot be hit.
I used to be a computer programmer for a telephone switching system and whenever our system crashed we would permanently save all the data in hard drive to try to debug why system crashed,
I am assuming IGT does the same so it could be super easy for them to connect each machine to a computer and detect that all the crashes are related to progressive based on cards being held.
Assuming the crash information saves what the cards are.
Quote: terapinedWhat does this mean
Triple bonus Actual RTP 96.43 %
All kinds of stuff on the screen
They got the laptop and sheets of paper out that look like tables
Kind of walking by occasionally and peeking
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Where do you see 96.43%?
I see 95.44%, which is the correct theoretical payback BEFORE the progressive is added. And for the actual return for the last 40,103 games, the actual return is 81.xx%. Oof, looks like no royals or AWAKs either then? A return that low is brutal.
Quote: WizardIt might be a play to lurk and wait for them to fix and reopen the game. I show the opportunity is worth about $4,900 if you can monopolize all the machines with the jackpot.
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It's a bit of a risk though. I say it's not a 100% chance that they fix this correctly before they put it back into service
Quote: tringlomaneQuote: WizardIt might be a play to lurk and wait for them to fix and reopen the game. I show the opportunity is worth about $4,900 if you can monopolize all the machines with the jackpot.
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It's a bit of a risk though. I say it's not a 100% chance that they fix this correctly before they put it back into service
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I would guess there is close to a 0% chance they fix it and get it back in play this week.
Quote: tringlomane[
Where do you see 96.43%?
I see 95.44%, which is the correct theoretical payback BEFORE the progressive is added. And for the actual return for the last 40,103 games, the actual return is 81.xx%. Oof, looks like no royals or AWAKs either then? A return that low is brutal.
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It was not at the exact same time that I took this pic
The left machine had info up and I looked over the guys shoulder
I saw a column with "actual RTP" and saw 95.43% next to that number was theoretical return % and just walked away
This is all on a quick glance
Tempted to ask if I could take a pic of the screen with that, but thought better
Dont want to get thrown out
This was a quick inconspicuous picture as I walked by later then left
Quote: terapinedWhat does this mean
Triple bonus Actual RTP 96.43 %
It means that so far it has paid out 96.43% of what was wagered on that game on that particular machine Every machine will be different. If the theoretical payback on that paytable was 97.1% then it was slightly over holding which is just variance.
Quote: DRichQuote: tringlomaneQuote: WizardIt might be a play to lurk and wait for them to fix and reopen the game. I show the opportunity is worth about $4,900 if you can monopolize all the machines with the jackpot.
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It's a bit of a risk though. I say it's not a 100% chance that they fix this correctly before they put it back into service
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I would guess there is close to a 0% chance they fix it and get it back in play this week.
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So if its put back in play with the progressive
Me the ploppy will has no idea its fixed unless I see a team on all 4 machines
I'm guessing a team probably has a bartender keeping an eye on these machines but what do I know
Thinking of going back and seeing whats developed with the business day almost over. Sometimes timing is everything
If I see the machine on the floor with the progressive and no players, might hit it, but with it being so volotile, it could kill my small ploppy bankroll
Best scenario, I grab a seat then the next 3 occupied quickly after me
Quote: tringlomaneIt's a bit of a risk though. I say it's not a 100% chance that they fix this correctly before they put it back into service
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I show the expected loss if they don't fix it to be around $570. So, as long as the probability of it being fixed is 10.4% or more, then it's a positive play.
Quote: terapinedSo if its put back in play with the progressive
Me the ploppy will has no idea its fixed unless I see a team on all 4 machines
I'm guessing a team probably has a bartender keeping an eye on these machines but what do I know
Thinking of going back and seeing whats developed with the business day almost over. Sometimes timing is everything
If I see the machine on the floor with the progressive and no players, might hit it, but with it being so volotile, it could kill my small ploppy bankroll
Best scenario, I grab a seat then the next 3 occupied quickly after me
link to original post
Call if me they reopen the games. I think a lot of other members, many of whom are probably lurking this thread, would also be very happy for an alert. I'll take care of you if I get on.
Quote: WizardQuote: terapinedSo if its put back in play with the progressive
Me the ploppy will has no idea its fixed unless I see a team on all 4 machines
I'm guessing a team probably has a bartender keeping an eye on these machines but what do I know
Thinking of going back and seeing whats developed with the business day almost over. Sometimes timing is everything
If I see the machine on the floor with the progressive and no players, might hit it, but with it being so volotile, it could kill my small ploppy bankroll
Best scenario, I grab a seat then the next 3 occupied quickly after me
link to original post
Call if me they reopen the games. I think a lot of other members, many of whom are probably lurking this thread, would also be very happy for an alert. I'll take care of you if I get on.
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Eating a late lunch at the camper
If I'm going to play VP and grind, might as well do it on a full stomach.
Heading out to check this out
Hopefully good timing as I imagine gaming people get off around 4pm
Thats how bored I am lol
Quote: WizardQuote: terapinedSo if its put back in play with the progressive
Me the ploppy will has no idea its fixed unless I see a team on all 4 machines
I'm guessing a team probably has a bartender keeping an eye on these machines but what do I know
Thinking of going back and seeing whats developed with the business day almost over. Sometimes timing is everything
If I see the machine on the floor with the progressive and no players, might hit it, but with it being so volotile, it could kill my small ploppy bankroll
Best scenario, I grab a seat then the next 3 occupied quickly after me
link to original post
Call if me they reopen the games. I think a lot of other members, many of whom are probably lurking this thread, would also be very happy for an alert. I'll take care of you if I get on.
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If the machines are put back in play tonight they either did nothing or they disabled that particular game but let others be played.
Quote: DRichQuote: WizardQuote: terapinedSo if its put back in play with the progressive
Me the ploppy will has no idea its fixed unless I see a team on all 4 machines
I'm guessing a team probably has a bartender keeping an eye on these machines but what do I know
Thinking of going back and seeing whats developed with the business day almost over. Sometimes timing is everything
If I see the machine on the floor with the progressive and no players, might hit it, but with it being so volotile, it could kill my small ploppy bankroll
Best scenario, I grab a seat then the next 3 occupied quickly after me
link to original post
Call if me they reopen the games. I think a lot of other members, many of whom are probably lurking this thread, would also be very happy for an alert. I'll take care of you if I get on.
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If the machines are put back in play tonight they either did nothing or they disabled that particular game but let others be played.
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Exactly. Chance of it being fixed is less than 10% if they don’t get IGT involved. They already took progressive out of service for a week or more and it came back in different location with same defect.
Would not worry about any team players locking it up since most of us know each other and think the same. We are definitely not paying any bartenders to let us know if it is back in service. 😁
The 4 on the other side are also out for a total 8 machines out of service
Quote: Luckylucyano
Exactly. Chance of it being fixed is less than 10% if they don’t get IGT involved. They already took progressive out of service for a week or more and it came back in different location with same defect.
If IGT is involved in a fix the software would still have to be provided to the lab and approved before it could be released. That could be bypassed if IGT claimed it was an emergency fix but I doubt this could be considered an emergency when they could just disable the game while leaving the machine in play.
Quote: AxelWolfYou would think IGT would take those machines off the floor and back to the lab for testing and replace them with identical(with no glitch ofc) machines and add the progressives to the new machines. Why is that so hard?
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The software bug could be in all the machines IGT owns, it could be caused by something specific with the connection from machine to progressive hardware/software. It is expecting some response when it tries to reset progressive and it gets some invalid or unexpected reaponse that kills it.
It is not really an emergency since they can just shut down this particular progressive temporarily or forever (by dumping money elsewhere) so no reason for IGT to rush anything. I think their real concern would be for the problem to more widespread than just that one progressive.
Quote: AxelWolfYou would think IGT would take those machines off the floor and back to the lab for testing and replace them with identical(with no glitch ofc) machines and add the progressives to the new machines. Why is that so hard?
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Most likely a software bug if it is happening on all of them. They should be able to replicate in their office with the same version of chips and same progressive controller.
Quote: DRichQuote: AxelWolfYou would think IGT would take those machines off the floor and back to the lab for testing and replace them with identical(with no glitch ofc) machines and add the progressives to the new machines. Why is that so hard?
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Most likely a software bug if it is happening on all of them. They should be able to replicate in their office with the same version of chips and same progressive controller.
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Speculation: the glitch happens because this is a new casino, and a database entry or configuration file entry is missing. Or that the machines came from one of their other casinos and are trying to retrieve data that is not available in the new network. Otherwise, as someone else mentioned, there would be other instances of this problem in other casinos. On the other hand, maybe this is the only casino with the latest release, and it just hasn't had time to hit other locations yet.
Quote: heatmapidk i swear the actual RTP says 91 and some change and i say its 91 because this because the first number clearly a 9.. the second number im not sure but im sure that the third number is a 5
In terapined's picture, which I downloaded and zoomed in on with the two guys sitting and staring at papers... but it's a bit hard to read hence my question marks.
Hands played: 40,103
Coin out: $40851?
Coin in: $50087?
Actual Return: 81.56%?
So way below average even if the 4 2s-4s w/Ace can't be awarded with the current programming. It's 89.18% expected EV if the 2-4 Ace gets zero credits instead of 4000 when you play normal 6/5 TTB strategy. But it's still feasible to have a 81.56% return over only 40,103 hands when 2-4s w/Ace gets nothing.
The Wizard said you can't add money to Gameking progressives but that's not true unless there's been some change to the newer machines. I have seen many. It is remotely possible they added some to this progressive but we witnessed about 20 cycles without any money being added.
The Wizard in his Youtube video incorrectly states you get a losing hand after the glitch and the power coming back on. Only the fifth card is different. You still have the four of a kind. I held 3333 and tried to draw. The machine shut off immediately. When the floor person powered it back up the fifth card was a 2 so I hit for $500. 4 2s-4s with an A234 kicker.
We witnessed about 7 or 8 jackpot cycles and the glitch happened around 7 or 8 times , and they were all where you had 4 cards to the jackpot and drawing for the fifth card. It could happen no matter how many cards you held. We think one was supposed to be dealt because the player only got dealt 4 cards without seeing the fifth card at all.The techs couldn't even power that one back on, I guess because it was unable to show the fifth card because that would complete the jackpot hand. All the other glitches were where you saw all your first 5 cards and then held some and then were drawing.
I think the vp public has a right to an explanation or some kind of assurance but it sounds like we won't get one. I guess we'll have to worry every time we play a progressive that hasn't hit for awhile.
