Picking STP 7/5 BP (98.25%) over 9/6 DDB (99%) in this scenario?
Casino's best game is 9/6 ddb @ $5 denom (99%, $25/spin, variance = 44).
Best game at $1 denom is triple play stp 7/5 bp (98.25%, $18/spin, var = 33).
Doing the calcs:
1) At $250k coin-in, $25/spin 9/6 ddb is 10k hands.
EV: -$500 +/- $16.6k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
2) At $250k coin-in, $18/spin triple play stp 7/5 bp is 13.9k hands.
EV: -$875 +/- $12.2k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
Var = 33 is for single line. Var will be less for triple play but i'm not going to calc it so using 33.
I'm leaning towards playing the 7/5 bp despite the lower EV because of the lower swings.
At 2 sd, the swings would be +/- $33.2k vs $24.4k or $9k difference.
Also, i find the random multipliers in stp more fun than boring single line ddb.
Which of the 2 would you play for $250k coin-in?
Why?
For dbl dbl bonus wouldn’t it be -2500
And for the 7/5 bonus -4375
Whoops.. you are right.Quote: HunterhillMaybe I’m wrong but I think your evs are wrong.
For dbl dbl bonus wouldn’t it be -2500
And for the 7/5 bonus -4375
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I did a copy/paste from my spreadsheet for these 2 games but never updated # of hands.
so Triple play 'STP 7/5 bp' is -$4375 +/- $12.2k (might be a little less since i'm using var of single line. 3line is slightly lower var)
9/6 ddb is -$2500 +/- $16.6k
Which of the 2 would you play for $250k coin-in?
Why?
You assume 500 hph? I assume 1200 hph and I have played some promotions for many hours at 1400 hph. I played 17,000 hands in a single day when I was young and foolish.Quote: ALGI'd probably choose the Ddb for time sake. Depending how fast you can play well. $250K @ $18 is 13,888 hands at 500/hr that's 27.77 hours over 3 days. Mistakes at those bets start to add up in a hurry.
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I would play the higher EV game when the variance is not dramatically different.
Quote: calwatchIf it was 7/5 bonus double STP, I might lean to that as it is multi hand, and while it is 0.5% less payback than garden variety single line DDB I would have more fun on the frequent multipliers, as well as the shot at the 20x unicorn dealt royal flush. Regular STP has 1 in 14 multipliers, which is pretty infrequent. Long term of course you should always play the highest EV game available.
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I was actually down 4 figures when I got this :)
Stp multipler only comes 1 in 14.
So if I hit 2 in 14 spins, move to the next machine! :)
I find multiplers more fun but you're right about dstp if it was an option.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: calwatchIf it was 7/5 bonus double STP, I might lean to that as it is multi hand, and while it is 0.5% less payback than garden variety single line DDB I would have more fun on the frequent multipliers, as well as the shot at the 20x unicorn dealt royal flush. Regular STP has 1 in 14 multipliers, which is pretty infrequent. Long term of course you should always play the highest EV game available.
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I was actually down 4 figures when I got this :)
Stp multiplier only comes 1 in 14.
So if I hit 2 in 14 spins, move to the next machine! :)
I find multipliers more fun but you're right about dstp if it was an option.
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Multiplier 1 in 14 huh?
a few times i put in $400 and only got 1 multiplier before going broke @ $18/spin. :(
40 18 14 9 4 8 11 19 40 65 1 12 21 20
1 2 13 6 1 6 20 2 20 1 6 68 4 19
13 1 33 14 12 7 2 24 15 5 10
587 spins, 39 multipliers = 1 in 15.05, which is what Wiz wrote in WoO.
But geez at 60+ spins before the next multiplier.
So far $30k coin in at $18/spin (1667 spins) and lost $3k.
3k/30k = 90% return on a 98.25% game.
I whiffed on ALOT of multiplers. :(
yeah, i know... small sample size
It took 70 spins before getting a multiplier.
A new record for me.
Luckily, I hit something good.
So the longer in-between spins, the more likely you will have a high multiplier?
Quote: 100xOddsSo i wrote down the # of spins before getting the next multiplier:
40 18 14 9 4 8 11 19 40 65 1 12 21 20
1 2 13 6 1 6 20 2 20 1 6 68 4 19
13 1 33 14 12 7 2 24 15 5 10
587 spins, 39 multipliers = 1 in 15.05, which is what Wiz wrote in WoO.
But geez at 60+ spins before the next multiplier.
So far $30k coin in at $18/spin (1667 spins) and lost $3k.
3k/30k = 90% return on a 98.25% game.
I whiffed on ALOT of multiplers. :(
yeah, i know... small sample size
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The wild thing about randomness is how non-random it can superficially appear to be.
I think it was one or more of the music streaming services that actually made the service LESS random because people didn’t think it was sufficiently random; the problem was that the same song would come on a good deal of the time (which would randomly happen) and people would think it was messed up.
There’s also the coin toss experiment you can look at; some people think that random coin tosses should automatically be more back and forth than they sometimes are.
People often have trouble with randomness because randomness is allowed to do stuff that’s, “Weird,” and often does.
Quote: 100xOdds
It took 70 spins before getting a multiplier.
A new record for me.
Luckily, I hit something good.
So the longer in-between spins, the more likely you will have a high multiplier?
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To the last sentence: I tend to doubt it; have you tested that hypothesis against the runs you tracked? I think that’s also random and doesn’t care how many spins since the previous one.
92% return
Jesus...
So many whiffed multipliers! :(
Wished it was a guaranteed win for at least 1 line when you have a multiplier.Quote: 100xOddsOverall so far Running at -3.5%, which is double the expected -1.75%.
So many whiffed multipliers! :(
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Wonder how much +EV that would add?
And is there a vp that has that guaranteed winning multiplier feature?
also, New high for # hands before multiplier: 85 :(
played at another casino.
best was .25 10play stp 9/5 ddb (98.15%). it's $15/spin
$16k coin-in and lost $3k.
16k/15 = 1k spins
@ 10 play, that's 10k hands
only 81% return on a 98% game!!! :(
Have yet to get special quads with kicker (aces or baby quads).
Have gotten a few quad aces and quad babys but no kicker.
Have not gotten dealt flush much less dealt full house.
This was on multiple machines.
Running sooooooooooooo bad.
I'll start counting again # spins before i get a multiplier.
If I don't get a multiplier in 10 hands I move to the next machine.
Results:
X3985xxxx61,xxx,34x5x2x
X is 10. A , means 10 but got a multiplier.
146/12 multiplier s
And the avg is 1 in 14.7
Still lost $ in this set but got a dealt full house (no multiplier).
Still waiting for quads with kicker :(
Quote: 100xOddsI was actually down 4 figures when I got this :)
Stp multipler only comes 1 in 14.
So if I hit 2 in 14 spins, move to the next machine! :)
I find multiplers more fun but you're right about dstp if it was an option.
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And thousands of hands later, dealt special quads with 5x!
- Multipliers are frustrating but less boring then $25/spin single line nerfed 8/5 bp, especially for only .25% more ev.
- As for $25/spin single line 9/6 ddb, not worth the extra .75% ev because of the increased variance and especially because I get a w2-g for every quad. Slows everything down. (No self pay at this casino)
I'm also not comfortable playing $25 per line.
And I don't know if I want to become comfortable doing that
odds:
9/47 x 9/47 x 9/47 = 729/103823 = .7% chance of this happening?!?
edit:
wait.. getting a multiplier is 1:14 so 729/103823 x 1/14 = 729/1.45M = .05% ???
edit2:
hm.. that's only 1:2000
not as impressive when converted to odds form
I used to play STP a lot, but felt like whenever I hit something I didn't have a multiplier. I got into Ultimate X and have hit a few 12X 4oak wins.
But now, I'm kinda thinking betting 1 extra credit on super triple play for a multiplier for the 4oak's could be a better way to go. Especially if you play bonus where the 4oak pay 3x more.
Quote: 100xOddsDealt multiplied flush, the hard way
odds:
9/47 x 9/47 x 9/47 = 729/103823 = .7% chance of this happening?!?
edit:
wait.. getting a multiplier is 1:14 so 729/103823 x 1/14 = 729/1.45M = .05% ???
edit2:
hm.. that's only 1:2000
not as impressive when converted to odds form
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Yes, but what are the odds of getting it with a 4x multiplier?
Quote: JasonVPI don't think I took a photo... but I was playing 3x double double bonus ultimate x, got dealt 4 to the flush. I drew the same card on all three lines.
I used to play STP a lot, but felt like whenever I hit something I didn't have a multiplier. I got into Ultimate X and have hit a few 12X 4oak wins.
But now, I'm kinda thinking betting 1 extra credit on super triple play for a multiplier for the 4oak's could be a better way to go. Especially if you play bonus where the 4oak pay 3x more.
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I believe that will happen every 2209 times.
Quote: DRichQuote: 100xOddsDealt multiplied flush, the hard way
odds:
9/47 x 9/47 x 9/47 = 729/103823 = .7% chance of this happening?!?
edit:
wait.. getting a multiplier is 1:14 so 729/103823 x 1/14 = 729/1.45M = .05% ???
edit2:
hm.. that's only 1:2000
not as impressive when converted to odds form
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Yes, but what are the odds of getting it with a 4x multiplier?
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When i fill in all 3 with a straight or better *AND* a 8x or 10x, i'll calc it.
not worth the brain cells for a 4x :)
Quote: 100xOddsAnd thousands of hands later, dealt special quads with 5x!
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This month i've been on the positive side of variance.
Within 11k hands, i got the above dealt special quads (with multiplier) then 2 other dealt quads (no multiplier).
I think lifetime, i've only gotten about 5 other dealt quads.
Then i hit this:
Incidentally, i have yet to get a straight flush in the 11k hands. (1 in 10k chance)
So i'm 'due' ... lol
edit:
$200k coin-in / $18 = 11k
hm.. Might be 11k triple play screens so 33k hands?
If so, waaaaaay behind on straight flushes.
(It's too early for my brain to think)
just lost $1.1k in $5k coin-in.. 78% return
Blanked out on most multipliers and the rest was 2 pairs at best
Quote: 100xOdds
edit:
$200k coin-in / $18 = 11k
hm.. Might be 11k triple play screens so 33k hands?
If so, waaaaaay behind on straight flushes.
(It's too early for my brain to think)
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Finally got my 1st straight flush in this run
If i did play 33k hands this month, then i'm waaaay behind in straight flushes
Thinking it's a dealt flush with multiplier is more enjoyable :)
Quad Aces:
And I got 2 of them in an hr!
But site won't upload second picture. :(
Odds of quad aces no kicker is 1:5.8k.
I'm way ahead in Quad aces but way behind in regular quads and full houses.
Avg 1 quad per 500 hands but no quads in my last 1500 hands so 3 cycles.
After 4k hands, I'm break even.
(I was up $8k with the two quad Aces)
But triple play adds 20% more variance so 40.
Var of single line 9/6 DDB is 44.
So about the same variance but 0.7% less RTP on the stp 7/5 BP. 99% vs 98.3%
Eliminating stp 7/5 bp as an option.
So now it's between 9/6 DDB vs crippled single line 8/5 bp. All quads at 140 credits.
98.5% but 1/2 the var at 21.
(I can't find my thread that discusses the crippled 8/5 bp thus updating this thread)
I need 7k more hands at $25/spin to make next casino tier.
Is 1/2 the variance worth 0.5% RTP playing that small amount of hands?
1330 hands, 83.5% return
Lost $5500
At this rate, I will lose $30k to get to 7k hands
Quote: 100xOddsI kept playing 9/6 DDB.
1330 hands, 83.5% return
Lost $5500
At this rate, I will lose $30k to get to 7k hands
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Even money on two pair is vicious.
Quote: DieterQuote: 100xOddsI kept playing 9/6 DDB.
1330 hands, 83.5% return
Lost $5500
At this rate, I will lose $30k to get to 7k hands
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Even money on two pair is vicious.
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I'm thinking it's the lack of quads.
Probably would have similar loses with lack of quads if it was 8/5 bp?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DieterQuote: 100xOddsI kept playing 9/6 DDB.
1330 hands, 83.5% return
Lost $5500
At this rate, I will lose $30k to get to 7k hands
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Even money on two pair is vicious.
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I'm thinking it's the lack of quads.
Probably would have similar loses with lack of quads if it was 8/5 bp?
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A lack of quads will be painful on any game but your example of 8/5 BP is not the best because it pays 2-1 on two pair which helps lower the volatility.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DieterQuote: 100xOddsI kept playing 9/6 DDB.
1330 hands, 83.5% return
Lost $5500
At this rate, I will lose $30k to get to 7k hands
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Even money on two pair is vicious.
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I'm thinking it's the lack of quads.
Probably would have similar loses with lack of quads if it was 8/5 bp?
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Experiment:
Use the WoO-VPA to look at 8-5 BP.
Adjust the paytable for two pair from 10 to 5 and recalculate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker-analyzer/calculator/
If memory serves, that's around a 12 or 13% drop in return - there is a lot tied up in that one line at the bottom of the ticket.
You get a lot of two pair hands; quads are infrequent enough that they're memorable. Losing faster on two pair stings, unless you're landing way more premium hands than usual.
Quote: DRichA lack of quads will be painful on any game but your example of 8/5 BP is not the best because it pays 2-1 on two pair which helps lower the volatility.
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Quote: DieterExperiment:
Use the WoO-VPA to look at 8-5 BP.
Adjust the paytable for two pair from 10 to 5 and recalculate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker-analyzer/calculator/
If memory serves, that's around a 12 or 13% drop in return - there is a lot tied up in that one line at the bottom of the ticket.
You get a lot of two pair hands; quads are infrequent enough that they're memorable.
Losing faster on two pair stings, unless you're landing way more premium hands than usual.
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So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
Quote: 100xOdds
So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
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We can only know afterwards how many premium quads you'll get.
I prefer deuces.
Quote: DieterQuote: 100xOdds
So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
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We can only know afterwards how many premium quads you'll get.
I prefer deuces.
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Best dw 4,4,10,12 and it's stp so 98.1%
Just tried $25/spin gimped 8/5 bp.
Worst session ever.
$500 only lasted 77 hands, 35% return
So many non-winning hands in a row
Quote: DieterQuote: 100xOdds
So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
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We can only know afterwards how many premium quads you'll get.
I prefer deuces.
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I finally get special quads with kicker but in the wrong game, of course. :(
And twisting the knife, it's gimped 8/5 bp So I don't Even get extra payout for quad 4s
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DieterQuote: 100xOdds
So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
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We can only know afterwards how many premium quads you'll get.
I prefer deuces.
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I finally get special quads with kicker but in the wrong game, of course. :(
And twisting the knife, it's gimped 8/5 bp So I don't Even get extra payout for quad 4s
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You think that's bad? One time I was playing Jacks or Better, the full 99.54% paytable, and after playing just a few minutes, I got AAAA2. My $1.25 bet won $31.25 instead of $500 in DDB.
LOL
Quote: KevinAA
You think that's bad? One time I was playing Jacks or Better, the full 99.54% paytable, and after playing just a few minutes, I got AAAA2. My $1.25 bet won $31.25 instead of $500 in DDB.
LOL
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Even worse if you get that hand in 4/4/10/15 dueces wild.
5oak Aces pays 75 so $18.75
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: KevinAA
You think that's bad? One time I was playing Jacks or Better, the full 99.54% paytable, and after playing just a few minutes, I got AAAA2. My $1.25 bet won $31.25 instead of $500 in DDB.
LOL
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Even worse if you get that hand in 4/4/10/15 dueces wild.
5oak Aces pays 75 so $18.75
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Worse than that would be AAAA3 or AAAA4 in deuces wild. Win $5.00, 99% less than DDB.
Quote: DieterIf anyone has a trick for accurately guessing what hand will land next and selecting the game to maximize it, I'm keen to hear about it.
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9/6 DDB
Just got 2 regular quads within 3 hands. ($1250 each)
Glad the w2-g rules changed.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: DRichA lack of quads will be painful on any game but your example of 8/5 BP is not the best because it pays 2-1 on two pair which helps lower the volatility.
link to original postQuote: DieterExperiment:
Use the WoO-VPA to look at 8-5 BP.
Adjust the paytable for two pair from 10 to 5 and recalculate.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker-analyzer/calculator/
If memory serves, that's around a 12 or 13% drop in return - there is a lot tied up in that one line at the bottom of the ticket.
You get a lot of two pair hands; quads are infrequent enough that they're memorable.
Losing faster on two pair stings, unless you're landing way more premium hands than usual.
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So play gimped 8/5 bp @ 98.5% is better than 99% 9/6 ddb to finish my tier quest?
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What do you mean by gimped 8/5? I have never heard that term.
Quote: DRich
What do you mean by gimped 8/5? I have never heard that term.
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Look at my pic above:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/38796-picking-stp-7-5-bp-98-25-over-9-6-ddb-99-in-this-scenario/#post975405
No extra payout for special quads.
Just 8/5 bp with slightly higher payout for all quads.
Doesn't make up for not having special quads by .7% according to wiz calculator.
So basically 9/5 JoB and just as boring without the excitement of special quads.
Actually 9/5 JoB has slightly lower var (19.5 vs 20) because you're relying less on quads and more on boats for the rtp.
But both happen infrequently thus the Minuscule difference in var
