Picking STP 7/5 BP (98.25%) over 9/6 DDB (99%) in this scenario?
December 21st, 2023 at 7:05:46 PM
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Lets say i need $250k coin-in over 3 days for a promo.
Casino's best game is 9/6 ddb @ $5 denom (99%, $25/spin, variance = 44).
Best game at $1 denom is triple play stp 7/5 bp (98.25%, $18/spin, var = 33).
Doing the calcs:
1) At $250k coin-in, $25/spin 9/6 ddb is 10k hands.
EV: -$500 +/- $16.6k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
2) At $250k coin-in, $18/spin triple play stp 7/5 bp is 13.9k hands.
EV: -$875 +/- $12.2k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
Var = 33 is for single line. Var will be less for triple play but i'm not going to calc it so using 33.
I'm leaning towards playing the 7/5 bp despite the lower EV because of the lower swings.
At 2 sd, the swings would be +/- $33.2k vs $24.4k or $9k difference.
Also, i find the random multipliers in stp more fun than boring single line ddb.
Which of the 2 would you play for $250k coin-in?
Why?
Casino's best game is 9/6 ddb @ $5 denom (99%, $25/spin, variance = 44).
Best game at $1 denom is triple play stp 7/5 bp (98.25%, $18/spin, var = 33).
Doing the calcs:
1) At $250k coin-in, $25/spin 9/6 ddb is 10k hands.
EV: -$500 +/- $16.6k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
2) At $250k coin-in, $18/spin triple play stp 7/5 bp is 13.9k hands.
EV: -$875 +/- $12.2k @ 1 standard deviation (sd)
Var = 33 is for single line. Var will be less for triple play but i'm not going to calc it so using 33.
I'm leaning towards playing the 7/5 bp despite the lower EV because of the lower swings.
At 2 sd, the swings would be +/- $33.2k vs $24.4k or $9k difference.
Also, i find the random multipliers in stp more fun than boring single line ddb.
Which of the 2 would you play for $250k coin-in?
Why?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 21st, 2023 at 11:44:13 PM
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Maybe I’m wrong but I think your evs are wrong.
For dbl dbl bonus wouldn’t it be -2500
And for the 7/5 bonus -4375
For dbl dbl bonus wouldn’t it be -2500
And for the 7/5 bonus -4375
Happy days are here again
December 26th, 2023 at 1:03:56 PM
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Whoops.. you are right.Quote: HunterhillMaybe I’m wrong but I think your evs are wrong.
For dbl dbl bonus wouldn’t it be -2500
And for the 7/5 bonus -4375
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I did a copy/paste from my spreadsheet for these 2 games but never updated # of hands.
so Triple play 'STP 7/5 bp' is -$4375 +/- $12.2k (might be a little less since i'm using var of single line. 3line is slightly lower var)
9/6 ddb is -$2500 +/- $16.6k
Which of the 2 would you play for $250k coin-in?
Why?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 26th, 2023 at 3:27:44 PM
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I'd probably choose the Ddb for time sake. Depending how fast you can play well. $250K @ $18 is 13,888 hands at 500/hr that's 27.77 hours over 3 days. Mistakes at those bets start to add up in a hurry.
December 26th, 2023 at 5:14:07 PM
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You assume 500 hph? I assume 1200 hph and I have played some promotions for many hours at 1400 hph. I played 17,000 hands in a single day when I was young and foolish.Quote: ALGI'd probably choose the Ddb for time sake. Depending how fast you can play well. $250K @ $18 is 13,888 hands at 500/hr that's 27.77 hours over 3 days. Mistakes at those bets start to add up in a hurry.
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I would play the higher EV game when the variance is not dramatically different.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:57:03 AM
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If it was 7/5 bonus double STP, I might lean to that as it is multi hand, and while it is 0.5% less payback than garden variety single line DDB I would have more fun on the frequent multipliers, as well as the shot at the 20x unicorn dealt royal flush. Regular STP has 1 in 14 multipliers, which is pretty infrequent. Long term of course you should always play the highest EV game available.
January 22nd, 2024 at 6:46:26 PM
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Quote: calwatchIf it was 7/5 bonus double STP, I might lean to that as it is multi hand, and while it is 0.5% less payback than garden variety single line DDB I would have more fun on the frequent multipliers, as well as the shot at the 20x unicorn dealt royal flush. Regular STP has 1 in 14 multipliers, which is pretty infrequent. Long term of course you should always play the highest EV game available.
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I was actually down 4 figures when I got this :)
Stp multipler only comes 1 in 14.
So if I hit 2 in 14 spins, move to the next machine! :)
I find multiplers more fun but you're right about dstp if it was an option.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
January 28th, 2024 at 3:22:13 PM
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I'm going to have a similar dilemma later this year at Resorts World. Their $1 DSTP Double Double Bonus (3/5/10 lines) is the best video poker on the Strip, at least for bet sizes under $25, but I just feel more comfortable at 50 cent 8/5 bonus poker a couple of machines down (it is a 25-100 play machine but there are no restrictions against playing as little as one line). I feel that even playing max bet, $62.50 at bonus poker, is less volatile than $21 at DSTP DDB, with its huge dependence on the unicorn royal and only paying five credits for a two pair. In between those is a Five Star machine offering $1/$2/$5 single line STP Airport Deuces and DDB, and I have also played that one since Deuces has just slightly more volatility than Bonus, although I personally hate single line.
February 7th, 2024 at 12:46:03 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsQuote: calwatchIf it was 7/5 bonus double STP, I might lean to that as it is multi hand, and while it is 0.5% less payback than garden variety single line DDB I would have more fun on the frequent multipliers, as well as the shot at the 20x unicorn dealt royal flush. Regular STP has 1 in 14 multipliers, which is pretty infrequent. Long term of course you should always play the highest EV game available.
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I was actually down 4 figures when I got this :)
Stp multiplier only comes 1 in 14.
So if I hit 2 in 14 spins, move to the next machine! :)
I find multipliers more fun but you're right about dstp if it was an option.
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Multiplier 1 in 14 huh?
a few times i put in $400 and only got 1 multiplier before going broke @ $18/spin. :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 8th, 2024 at 12:06:46 PM
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So i wrote down the # of spins before getting the next multiplier:
40 18 14 9 4 8 11 19 40 65 1 12 21 20
1 2 13 6 1 6 20 2 20 1 6 68 4 19
13 1 33 14 12 7 2 24 15 5 10
587 spins, 39 multipliers = 1 in 15.05, which is what Wiz wrote in WoO.
But geez at 60+ spins before the next multiplier.
So far $30k coin in at $18/spin (1667 spins) and lost $3k.
3k/30k = 90% return on a 98.25% game.
I whiffed on ALOT of multiplers. :(
yeah, i know... small sample size
40 18 14 9 4 8 11 19 40 65 1 12 21 20
1 2 13 6 1 6 20 2 20 1 6 68 4 19
13 1 33 14 12 7 2 24 15 5 10
587 spins, 39 multipliers = 1 in 15.05, which is what Wiz wrote in WoO.
But geez at 60+ spins before the next multiplier.
So far $30k coin in at $18/spin (1667 spins) and lost $3k.
3k/30k = 90% return on a 98.25% game.
I whiffed on ALOT of multiplers. :(
yeah, i know... small sample size
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Feb 8, 2024
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 8th, 2024 at 1:48:04 PM
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It took 70 spins before getting a multiplier.
A new record for me.
Luckily, I hit something good.
So the longer in-between spins, the more likely you will have a high multiplier?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 9th, 2024 at 3:44:24 AM
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Quote: 100xOddsSo i wrote down the # of spins before getting the next multiplier:
40 18 14 9 4 8 11 19 40 65 1 12 21 20
1 2 13 6 1 6 20 2 20 1 6 68 4 19
13 1 33 14 12 7 2 24 15 5 10
587 spins, 39 multipliers = 1 in 15.05, which is what Wiz wrote in WoO.
But geez at 60+ spins before the next multiplier.
So far $30k coin in at $18/spin (1667 spins) and lost $3k.
3k/30k = 90% return on a 98.25% game.
I whiffed on ALOT of multiplers. :(
yeah, i know... small sample size
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The wild thing about randomness is how non-random it can superficially appear to be.
I think it was one or more of the music streaming services that actually made the service LESS random because people didn’t think it was sufficiently random; the problem was that the same song would come on a good deal of the time (which would randomly happen) and people would think it was messed up.
There’s also the coin toss experiment you can look at; some people think that random coin tosses should automatically be more back and forth than they sometimes are.
People often have trouble with randomness because randomness is allowed to do stuff that’s, “Weird,” and often does.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 9th, 2024 at 3:45:44 AM
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Quote: 100xOdds
It took 70 spins before getting a multiplier.
A new record for me.
Luckily, I hit something good.
So the longer in-between spins, the more likely you will have a high multiplier?
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To the last sentence: I tend to doubt it; have you tested that hypothesis against the runs you tracked? I think that’s also random and doesn’t care how many spins since the previous one.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 13th, 2024 at 9:18:20 AM
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15k coin in, lost $1200
92% return
Jesus...
92% return
Jesus...
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Feb 13, 2024
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 14th, 2024 at 6:02:16 AM
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Overall so far Running at -3.5%, which is double the expected -1.75%.
So many whiffed multipliers! :(
So many whiffed multipliers! :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 16th, 2024 at 11:42:00 AM
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Wished it was a guaranteed win for at least 1 line when you have a multiplier.Quote: 100xOddsOverall so far Running at -3.5%, which is double the expected -1.75%.
So many whiffed multipliers! :(
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Wonder how much +EV that would add?
And is there a vp that has that guaranteed winning multiplier feature?
also, New high for # hands before multiplier: 85 :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 28th, 2024 at 9:38:48 AM
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So i'm addicted to stp/dstp at the moment.
played at another casino.
best was .25 10play stp 9/5 ddb (98.15%). it's $15/spin
$16k coin-in and lost $3k.
16k/15 = 1k spins
@ 10 play, that's 10k hands
only 81% return on a 98% game!!! :(
Have yet to get special quads with kicker (aces or baby quads).
Have gotten a few quad aces and quad babys but no kicker.
Have not gotten dealt flush much less dealt full house.
This was on multiple machines.
Running sooooooooooooo bad.
I'll start counting again # spins before i get a multiplier.
played at another casino.
best was .25 10play stp 9/5 ddb (98.15%). it's $15/spin
$16k coin-in and lost $3k.
16k/15 = 1k spins
@ 10 play, that's 10k hands
only 81% return on a 98% game!!! :(
Have yet to get special quads with kicker (aces or baby quads).
Have gotten a few quad aces and quad babys but no kicker.
Have not gotten dealt flush much less dealt full house.
This was on multiple machines.
Running sooooooooooooo bad.
I'll start counting again # spins before i get a multiplier.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 28th, 2024 at 3:25:58 PM
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I decided to do something different.
If I don't get a multiplier in 10 hands I move to the next machine.
Results:
X3985xxxx61,xxx,34x5x2x
X is 10. A , means 10 but got a multiplier.
146/12 multiplier s
And the avg is 1 in 14.7
Still lost $ in this set but got a dealt full house (no multiplier).
Still waiting for quads with kicker :(
If I don't get a multiplier in 10 hands I move to the next machine.
Results:
X3985xxxx61,xxx,34x5x2x
X is 10. A , means 10 but got a multiplier.
146/12 multiplier s
And the avg is 1 in 14.7
Still lost $ in this set but got a dealt full house (no multiplier).
Still waiting for quads with kicker :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
