rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 22nd, 2022 at 10:33:32 PM permalink
I found a new version of Shockwave Poker at Choctaw Casinos. A Double Bonus version with extra coins for quads at the expense of two pair only returning your bet. During Shockwave mode, however, all quads continue to be 4000 coins.

I couldn't follow the Wiz's explanation of calculating return for regular Shockwave, was hoping someone could calculate for me please? I've posted the paytable for the $1 version and the quarter version.



Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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April 23rd, 2022 at 1:50:00 PM permalink
Curious also...always thought they needed a bonus version of some sort for Shockwave
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 23rd, 2022 at 3:22:21 PM permalink
I have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:
The normal return is is 94.1897%
1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind
The Shockwave return is 283.067%
The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857
Here's the part I'm not so sure about:
Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%

7/5 version:
The normal return is 93.106%
1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind
The Shockwave return is 282.38%
1/380 is a Four of a Kind
The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/380 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8824
Overall expected return = 93.106% + 1/420 x 9.8824 x 282.38% = 99.7502%
Dieter
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Dieter
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April 23rd, 2022 at 7:03:37 PM permalink
That's a head scratcher for me, too.
Shockwave mode in previously analyzed games seems to add around 4.3% to the base paytable; it startles me to see that using a DB base instead of BP base might suddenly increase the value of the feature to +6.5%.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 23rd, 2022 at 10:59:58 PM permalink
I tried to follow the Wiz's logic on his Shockwave page to figure this out, but he doesn't explain how he calculated the addition of 18.3 to 18.8 to the regular mode 4oaK.

But in looking at his calculation, I noted a small error in his step 2 added at the bottom of his analysis. He puts the probability of 10 spins at 1-P(quads)^10, but it should actually be 1 - sum of P(quads in 1-9 hands). The difference being that he's not accounting for the potential of a quads on Hand 10. The impact is very small, obviously.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 23rd, 2022 at 11:02:23 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:
The normal return is is 94.1897%
1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind
The Shockwave return is 283.067%
The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857
Here's the part I'm not so sure about:
Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%



Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.

Pr Game ending after N hands
1 0.00262810 Pr Quads 0.002628101
2 0.00262119
3 0.00261430
4 0.00260743
5 0.00260058
6 0.00259375
7 0.00258693
8 0.00258013
9 0.00257335
10 0.97659423
Total 1.0000000

Expected hands in Shockwave mode 9.882560507
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 24th, 2022 at 7:38:15 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:
The normal return is is 94.1897%
1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind
The Shockwave return is 283.067%
The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857
Here's the part I'm not so sure about:
Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%



Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.


That is assuming the probability of getting quads in 8/5 is about 1 / 380.5. Are you sure that's not the probability of "quads or better"? Remember, Shockwave isn't ended by a Royal or a SF.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 24th, 2022 at 8:52:45 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:
The normal return is is 94.1897%
1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind
The Shockwave return is 283.067%
The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857
Here's the part I'm not so sure about:
Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%



Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.


That is assuming the probability of getting quads in 8/5 is about 1 / 380.5. Are you sure that's not the probability of "quads or better"? Remember, Shockwave isn't ended by a Royal or a SF.
link to original post



I ran the shockwave mode through WinPoker. This is the probability of a Shockwave Quad.
rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 24th, 2022 at 9:01:31 AM permalink
Output from WinPoker for Shockwave Round:

Shockwave DB - Shockwave
Hand Name Payout Frequency % Prob. Occurs Every % of Ret.
Royal Flush 4000 55.887579 0.002% 46503.36 1.72%
Straight Flush 250 177.02807 0.007% 14681.06 0.34%
4 of a Kind 4000 6830.3282 0.263% 380.5029 210.25%
Full House 40 17854.737 0.687% 145.5614 5.50%
Flush 25 22165.918 0.853% 117.2503 4.26%
Straight 20 25291.327 0.973% 102.7609 3.89%
3 of a Kind 15 218361.03 8.402% 11.90212 25.21%
Two Pair 5 252803.12 9.727% 10.28057 9.73%
Jacks or Better 5 576254.16 22.172% 4.510093 22.17%
NOTHING 0 1479166.5 56.914% 1.757044 0.00%
Total Return 2598960 283.0670%
Variance 1689.78816
Last edited by: rsactuary on Apr 24, 2022
rsactuary
rsactuary
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April 24th, 2022 at 9:38:54 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Shockwave isn't ended by a Royal or a SF.



This is an excellent time for me to once again share my dealt royal in Shockwave mode. I can verify that Shockwave mode did not end.


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