I couldn't follow the Wiz's explanation of calculating return for regular Shockwave, was hoping someone could calculate for me please? I've posted the paytable for the $1 version and the quarter version.

8/5 version:

The normal return is is 94.1897%

1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind

The Shockwave return is 283.067%

The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857

Here's the part I'm not so sure about:

Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%

7/5 version:

The normal return is 93.106%

1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind

The Shockwave return is 282.38%

1/380 is a Four of a Kind

The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/380 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8824

Overall expected return = 93.106% + 1/420 x 9.8824 x 282.38% = 99.7502%

Shockwave mode in previously analyzed games seems to add around 4.3% to the base paytable; it startles me to see that using a DB base instead of BP base might suddenly increase the value of the feature to +6.5%.

But in looking at his calculation, I noted a small error in his step 2 added at the bottom of his analysis. He puts the probability of 10 spins at 1-P(quads)^10, but it should actually be 1 - sum of P(quads in 1-9 hands). The difference being that he's not accounting for the potential of a quads on Hand 10. The impact is very small, obviously.

Quote:ThatDonGuyI have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:

The normal return is is 94.1897%

1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind

The Shockwave return is 283.067%

The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857

Here's the part I'm not so sure about:

Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%

Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.

Pr Game ending after N hands

1 0.00262810 Pr Quads 0.002628101

2 0.00262119

3 0.00261430

4 0.00260743

5 0.00260058

6 0.00259375

7 0.00258693

8 0.00258013

9 0.00257335

10 0.97659423

Total 1.0000000

Expected hands in Shockwave mode 9.882560507

Quote:rsactuaryQuote:ThatDonGuyI have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:

The normal return is is 94.1897%

1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind

The Shockwave return is 283.067%

The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857

Here's the part I'm not so sure about:

Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%

Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.

That is assuming the probability of getting quads in 8/5 is about 1 / 380.5. Are you sure that's not the probability of "quads or better"? Remember, Shockwave isn't ended by a Royal or a SF.

Quote:ThatDonGuyQuote:rsactuaryQuote:ThatDonGuyI have a feeling I'm calculating this wrong, but here is what I get:

8/5 version:

The normal return is is 94.1897%

1/420 of the time, you get a Four of a Kind

The Shockwave return is 283.067%

The expected number of Shockwave hands, based on 1/391 of them being a Four of a Kind, is 9.8857

Here's the part I'm not so sure about:

Overall expected return = 94.1987% + 1/420 x 9.8857 x 283.067% = 100.8614%

Focusing on the 8/5 version for now..... I get expected number of Shockwave hands to be 9.882561, calculated through brute force.

That is assuming the probability of getting quads in 8/5 is about 1 / 380.5. Are you sure that's not the probability of "quads or better"? Remember, Shockwave isn't ended by a Royal or a SF.

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I ran the shockwave mode through WinPoker. This is the probability of a Shockwave Quad.

Shockwave DB - Shockwave

Hand Name | Payout | Frequency | % Prob. | Occurs Every | % of Ret. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 4000 | 55.887579 | 0.002% | 46503.36 | 1.72% |

Straight Flush | 250 | 177.02807 | 0.007% | 14681.06 | 0.34% |

4 of a Kind | 4000 | 6830.3282 | 0.263% | 380.5029 | 210.25% |

Full House | 40 | 17854.737 | 0.687% | 145.5614 | 5.50% |

Flush | 25 | 22165.918 | 0.853% | 117.2503 | 4.26% |

Straight | 20 | 25291.327 | 0.973% | 102.7609 | 3.89% |

3 of a Kind | 15 | 218361.03 | 8.402% | 11.90212 | 25.21% |

Two Pair | 5 | 252803.12 | 9.727% | 10.28057 | 9.73% |

Jacks or Better | 5 | 576254.16 | 22.172% | 4.510093 | 22.17% |

NOTHING | 0 | 1479166.5 | 56.914% | 1.757044 | 0.00% |

Total Return | 2598960 | 283.0670% | |||

Variance | 1689.78816 |