Playing Without An Edge
Accurate play + sufficiently high return on Paytable + Mailer/Freeplay + Promos + Etc., = long term winner. Bobbartop 12/4/2019
I am in total agreement with this statement. So, why are there so few long term video poker winners? Lack of opportunity, skill, motivation and discipline top the list. Physical disabilities can limit results. Bankroll limitations can be eased by playing low variance games. If a particular promo drawing occurs at midnight, are you going to be there when your name is called? This post is not about making excuses for losing.
Today's video poker players have access to better information than they had twenty years ago. Thanks to experts, they have learned how to calculate odds and the value of comps. Computer software has been available for some time allowing players to develop the skill to play near computer perfect. These developments have reduced the casino's profit from video poker games significantly. To protect their profits, casinos have reduced the odds and comps on video poker games.
At my home casino, one of the largest in the South, video poker is not eligible for bonus points and the point and free play accumulation rate is less than traditional slots. Currently, the average video poker game at my casino has about a 2-3% house edge not counting errors. If you wish to move up to $25 a hand, you can play with a 1% house edge. A typical player plays a minimum of 500 hands an hour. This means a $5 player runs at least $12,500 an hour through the machines. Even though the house edge is smaller, the larger coin-in allows the casino to profit from these players. The few players who beat them are not numerous enough to hurt their bottom line. If they do, the casino can reduce their comps or ban them entirely.
When you play overall negative casino games, you are paying to play. If you do, the most significant factor influencing your results is total coin-in. Out of every dollar you put into a negative game, a portion goes to the casino. If the game has a 3% house edge and you play one quarter per hand, the long term cost with perfect play is about 3/4 of a cent per hand. If you step up to five quarters with a 2% house edge, the casino's profit is now 2 1/2 cents per hand. The formula above says we must add back the comps, free play and incentives. Obviously, they will be greater as your coin-in increases. If the comps have no value to you, the smaller the coin-in the less your cost to play.
Playing single coin comes with significant disadvantages. The only real advantage is more seat time for a given amount of money. You will see more jackpots, but they will be smaller. If you play single coin quarters, the payout for a royal flush is reduced from $1,000 to $62.50. For most quarter players, the dream of walking out with a $1,000 jackpot is the ultimate goal. Without that goal, it removes much of the enjoyment from playing the game. A royal flush is a rare event. However, the anticipation of hitting a $1,000 royal has value even if it doesn't happen. So much so that most players that play negative games should not play single coin even though they will lose less long term.
I am always experimenting with ways to reduce this cost. Currently, I am trying a new tactic in my own play. Instead of playing single coin one day a week, I am playing max coins one day a month. It could take longer to experience a royal flush, but it will be worth sixteen times more. Over Christmas we will be in South Florida for our annual family get together. The Hard Rock is comping our rooms saving us $250 a night. It could cost three times that much to stay at the Hard Rock over Christmas. $250 a night is the price at a South Florida Hampton Inn. I expect they'll throw in some points for food and drinks too. Comments welcome.
What's the question?Quote: SingleCoinVPRecently posted on this forum.
Accurate play + sufficiently high return on Paytable + Mailer/Freeplay + Promos + Etc., = long term winner. Bobbartop 12/4/2019
I am in total agreement with this statement. So, why are there so few long term video poker winners? Lack of opportunity, skill, motivation and discipline top the list. Physical disabilities can limit results. Bankroll limitations can be eased by playing low variance games. If a particular promo drawing occurs at midnight, are you going to be there when your name is called? This post is not about making excuses for losing.
Today's video poker players have access to better information than they had twenty years ago. Thanks to experts, they have learned how to calculate odds and the value of comps. Computer software has been available for some time allowing players to develop the skill to play near computer perfect. These developments have reduced the casino's profit from video poker games significantly.
To protect their profits, casinos have reduced the odds and comps on video poker games.
At my home casino, one of the largest in the South, video poker is not eligible for bonus points and the point and free play accumulation rate is less than traditional slots. Currently, the average video poker game at my casino has about a 2-3% house edge not counting errors. If you wish to move up to $25 a hand, you can play with a 1% house edge. A typical player plays a minimum of 500 hands an hour. This means a $5 player runs at least $12,500 an hour through the machines. Even though the house edge is smaller, the larger coin-in allows the casino to profit from these players. The few players who beat them are not numerous enough to hurt their bottom line. If they do, the casino either reduces their comps or bans them entirely.
When you play overall negative casino games, you are paying to play. If you do, the most significant factor influencing your results is total coin-in. Out of every dollar you put into a negative game, a portion goes to the casino. If the game has a 3% house edge and you play one quarter per hand, the long term cost with perfect play is about 3/4 of a cent per hand. If you step up to five quarters with a 2% house edge, the casino's profit is now 2 1/2 cents per hand. The formula above says we must add back the comps, free play and incentives. Obviously, they will be greater as your coin-in increases. If the comps have no value to you, the smaller the coin-in the less your cost to play.
Playing single coin comes with significant disadvantages. The only real advantage is more seat time for a given amount of money. You will see more jackpots, but they will be smaller. If you play single coin quarters, the payout for a royal flush is reduced from $1,000 to $62.50. For most quarter players, the dream of walking out with a $1,000 jackpot is the ultimate goal. Without that goal, it removes much of the enjoyment from playing the game. A royal flush is a rare event. However, the anticipation of hitting a $1,000 royal has value even if it doesn't happen. So much so that most players that play negative games should not play single coin even though they will lose less long term.
I am always experimenting with ways to reduce this cost. Currently, I am trying a new tactic in my own play. Instead of playing single coin one day a week, I am playing max coins one day a month. It could take longer to experience a royal flush, but it will be worth sixteen times more. Over Christmas we will be in South Florida for our annual family get together. The Hard Rock is comping our rooms saving us $250 a night. It could cost three times that much to stay at the Hard Rock over Christmas. $250 a night is the price at a South Florida Hampton Inn. I expect they'll throw in some points for food and drinks too. Comments welcome.
If we limit this forum to only discussions of Advantage Play, we leave out 99% of the players.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat's the question?Quote: SingleCoinVPRecently posted on this forum.
Accurate play + sufficiently high return on Paytable + Mailer/Freeplay + Promos + Etc., = long term winner. Bobbartop 12/4/2019
I am in total agreement with this statement. So, why are there so few long term video poker winners? Lack of opportunity, skill, motivation and discipline top the list. Physical disabilities can limit results. Bankroll limitations can be eased by playing low variance games. If a particular promo drawing occurs at midnight, are you going to be there when your name is called? This post is not about making excuses for losing.
Today's video poker players have access to better information than they had twenty years ago. Thanks to experts, they have learned how to calculate odds and the value of comps. Computer software has been available for some time allowing players to develop the skill to play near computer perfect. These developments have reduced the casino's profit from video poker games significantly.
To protect their profits, casinos have reduced the odds and comps on video poker games.
At my home casino, one of the largest in the South, video poker is not eligible for bonus points and the point and free play accumulation rate is less than traditional slots. Currently, the average video poker game at my casino has about a 2-3% house edge not counting errors. If you wish to move up to $25 a hand, you can play with a 1% house edge. A typical player plays a minimum of 500 hands an hour. This means a $5 player runs at least $12,500 an hour through the machines. Even though the house edge is smaller, the larger coin-in allows the casino to profit from these players. The few players who beat them are not numerous enough to hurt their bottom line. If they do, the casino either reduces their comps or bans them entirely.
When you play overall negative casino games, you are paying to play. If you do, the most significant factor influencing your results is total coin-in. Out of every dollar you put into a negative game, a portion goes to the casino. If the game has a 3% house edge and you play one quarter per hand, the long term cost with perfect play is about 3/4 of a cent per hand. If you step up to five quarters with a 2% house edge, the casino's profit is now 2 1/2 cents per hand. The formula above says we must add back the comps, free play and incentives. Obviously, they will be greater as your coin-in increases. If the comps have no value to you, the smaller the coin-in the less your cost to play.
Playing single coin comes with significant disadvantages. The only real advantage is more seat time for a given amount of money. You will see more jackpots, but they will be smaller. If you play single coin quarters, the payout for a royal flush is reduced from $1,000 to $62.50. For most quarter players, the dream of walking out with a $1,000 jackpot is the ultimate goal. Without that goal, it removes much of the enjoyment from playing the game. A royal flush is a rare event. However, the anticipation of hitting a $1,000 royal has value even if it doesn't happen. So much so that most players that play negative games should not play single coin even though they will lose less long term.
I am always experimenting with ways to reduce this cost. Currently, I am trying a new tactic in my own play. Instead of playing single coin one day a week, I am playing max coins one day a month. It could take longer to experience a royal flush, but it will be worth sixteen times more. Over Christmas we will be in South Florida for our annual family get together. The Hard Rock is comping our rooms saving us $250 a night. It could cost three times that much to stay at the Hard Rock over Christmas. $250 a night is the price at a South Florida Hampton Inn. I expect they'll throw in some points for food and drinks too. Comments welcome.
Who is on First?
Exactly.Quote: billryanQuote: AxelWolfWhat's the question?Quote: SingleCoinVPRecently posted on this forum.
Accurate play + sufficiently high return on Paytable + Mailer/Freeplay + Promos + Etc., = long term winner. Bobbartop 12/4/2019
I am in total agreement with this statement. So, why are there so few long term video poker winners? Lack of opportunity, skill, motivation and discipline top the list. Physical disabilities can limit results. Bankroll limitations can be eased by playing low variance games. If a particular promo drawing occurs at midnight, are you going to be there when your name is called? This post is not about making excuses for losing.
Today's video poker players have access to better information than they had twenty years ago. Thanks to experts, they have learned how to calculate odds and the value of comps. Computer software has been available for some time allowing players to develop the skill to play near computer perfect. These developments have reduced the casino's profit from video poker games significantly.
To protect their profits, casinos have reduced the odds and comps on video poker games.
At my home casino, one of the largest in the South, video poker is not eligible for bonus points and the point and free play accumulation rate is less than traditional slots. Currently, the average video poker game at my casino has about a 2-3% house edge not counting errors. If you wish to move up to $25 a hand, you can play with a 1% house edge. A typical player plays a minimum of 500 hands an hour. This means a $5 player runs at least $12,500 an hour through the machines. Even though the house edge is smaller, the larger coin-in allows the casino to profit from these players. The few players who beat them are not numerous enough to hurt their bottom line. If they do, the casino either reduces their comps or bans them entirely.
When you play overall negative casino games, you are paying to play. If you do, the most significant factor influencing your results is total coin-in. Out of every dollar you put into a negative game, a portion goes to the casino. If the game has a 3% house edge and you play one quarter per hand, the long term cost with perfect play is about 3/4 of a cent per hand. If you step up to five quarters with a 2% house edge, the casino's profit is now 2 1/2 cents per hand. The formula above says we must add back the comps, free play and incentives. Obviously, they will be greater as your coin-in increases. If the comps have no value to you, the smaller the coin-in the less your cost to play.
Playing single coin comes with significant disadvantages. The only real advantage is more seat time for a given amount of money. You will see more jackpots, but they will be smaller. If you play single coin quarters, the payout for a royal flush is reduced from $1,000 to $62.50. For most quarter players, the dream of walking out with a $1,000 jackpot is the ultimate goal. Without that goal, it removes much of the enjoyment from playing the game. A royal flush is a rare event. However, the anticipation of hitting a $1,000 royal has value even if it doesn't happen. So much so that most players that play negative games should not play single coin even though they will lose less long term.
I am always experimenting with ways to reduce this cost. Currently, I am trying a new tactic in my own play. Instead of playing single coin one day a week, I am playing max coins one day a month. It could take longer to experience a royal flush, but it will be worth sixteen times more. Over Christmas we will be in South Florida for our annual family get together. The Hard Rock is comping our rooms saving us $250 a night. It could cost three times that much to stay at the Hard Rock over Christmas. $250 a night is the price at a South Florida Hampton Inn. I expect they'll throw in some points for food and drinks too. Comments welcome.
Who is on First?
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhy don't you rename this forum "The good old boys AP forum"? By now, every question that has ever existed about advantage play has been asked and answered thousands of times. Let's talk about the games the majority of us play.
I don’t disagree with this sentiment. The Wizard is dedicated to helping people lose the least if they choose to play -EV games.
Not smart. Less ______.Quote: SingleCoinVPLots of retirees play single coin quarters at my casino. I think they're smart to do this as long as they stick to it. In my own case, lack of discipline has been my greatest downfall. I'm getting better.
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhy don't you rename this forum "The good old boys AP forum"? By now, every question that has ever existed about advantage play has been asked and answered thousands of times. Let's talk about the games the majority of us play.
‘Round these neck of the woods, boy, you in the minority.
But for real, go ahead and ask any and all questions about single coin VP, I’ll be glad to answer them for you.
For starters, here are a few questions worth discussion.
1. Given today's slot comps are better than video poker comps, are slots ever a better game?
2. How does moving up and down in denomination affect your results?
3. Can walking out ahead make you a long term winner?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI question how many of today's players will ever see a positive casino game that lasts long enough to make a difference in their long term results? This could be due to many causes, some from the casino and some created by the players themselves.
For starters, here are a few questions worth discussion.
1. Given today's slot comps are better than video poker comps, are slots ever a better game?
2. How does moving up and down in denomination affect your results?
3. Can walking out ahead make you a long term winner?
1)ABSOLUTELY
2) In terms of what? I can think of different scenarios where it could affect your results both positively and negatively. Think of it in terms of counting cards.
3) If you win and never play again I guess that would make you a long-term winter. If you're playing a negative game there's no predictable "walking away when you're ahead system " that will work long-term or short-term.
A number of years ago, I proposed a two year test on another forum. During this test, I played video poker one full day each week and kept detailed records. I actually played more days than that as I also played on vacation. I played a single coin strategy that was eventually nicknamed by another forum member as "CS" or Cheap Strategy. It was never my intention to create a "winning" strategy and I stated that clearly from the beginning. My goal was to play as long as possible with the least amount of money while retaining the possibility of a significant jackpot. I kept detailed records and posted my results on the forum along with photos of my jackpots.
It is important to outline how my typical day went. I would play from 4 to 8 hours each day. I played single line single coin quarter 96% deuces wild all day long except for the following. Once each hour, I would play $20 in either max coin dollar or single coin five dollar deuces wild. All dollar and five dollar jackpots over $100 were immediately cashed out and kept.
At the end of the two year test period, I had posted approximately $17,000 in jackpot photos. I still have those photos in my computer. I assume the other forum could verify my photos. I was ahead approximately $2,000 when the test was over.
Some very lucky things happened during the test. Three weeks in a row, I hit a $1,000 single coin five dollar quad deuce on a group of three machines in the high limit room. I hit one $4,000 royal flush and a few more $1,000 dollar quads. What I was doing was using the single coin quarter play to kill time between $20 hourly pot shots. My profit came from being in the right place at the right time and the fact that I didn't feed all my winnings back into the machines.
As I reported my results and posted my photos, some players accused me of taking photos of other people's jackpots. Bob Dancer came unhinged and called me "dangerous". To this day he thinks I made up the story. I didn't. I said I was lucky and he didn't like my answer. I didn't think it would last and I said that too.
Do you believe good luck can overcome skill, odds and comps? Can bad luck devastate the most skilled AP?
NO to both, in the long run.Quote: SingleCoinVP
Do you believe good luck can overcome skill, odds and comps? Can bad luck devastate the most skilled player?
Here's the issue. It is absolutely true that playing the best games perfectly with the best comps gives you the best chance of making a profit. This happens because you can play more hands with the same money. Given enough hands, jackpots will happen. The math shows this. The math also says there is always a chance of every possible result, including losing. The chances I would make money with CS were slim. Still, it happened. Video poker Advanatge Play is still gambling.
Quote: SingleCoinVPWhy don't you rename this forum "The good old boys AP forum"? By now, every question that has ever existed about advantage play has been asked and answered thousands of times. Let's talk about the games the majority of us play.
No, it hasn't, for the following reasons:
1.) AP's don't even talk about most of what they know, and when they do, they often won't go into many specifics.
2.) New games come out with some frequency. Where there is a game (with some obvious exceptions) there is potentially a way to AP it. How could anyone have talked about games that don't even exist yet?
I could probably list several more items, but it's not worth my time.
I suppose my question to you is this: What is your problem with AP discussion?
Are you losing more money than you would like and want to console yourself in the fact that most people who go to casinos play losing games in a losing way? Are you trying to justify your own gambling? Do you want to stop gambling and can not?
None of these things are assumptions or insults, just questions. It makes no sense to me why you would want to denigrate advantage play or conducting conversations about advantage play.
If you think all this forum discusses is advantage play and you are not interested in the discussion of advantage play, why not just not visit anymore?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI question how many of today's players will ever see a positive casino game that lasts long enough to make a difference in their long term results? This could be due to many causes, some from the casino and some created by the players themselves.
For starters, here are a few questions worth discussion.
1. Given today's slot comps are better than video poker comps, are slots ever a better game?
-Often, but usually not just randomly picking one. For one thing, there are some casinos that have positive situations on slots where literally no possible positive situation can exist on video poker.
2. How does moving up and down in denomination affect your results?
-Higher denominations generally have a greater return-to-player, but this is not as true as it used to be.
3. Can walking out ahead make you a long term winner?
-You can make one bet, win and never play again and be a lifetime winner if that's what you are asking. I probably have one of the best percentage returns of anyone to ever bet horses on the planet. I made one set of bets, an extreme long shot horse won the race and I had never previously bet horses and never will again.
Quote:I question how many of today's players will ever see a positive casino game that lasts long enough to make a difference in their long term results?
I believe Blackjack card counting is still essentially viable, not to mention all of the other types of games that are long-term affairs.
That is an excellent question. I don't have a problem with any advantage play discussion as long as it doesn't guarantee profits. Few people have or are willing to do what it takes to be an AP. When you make statements that doing this or that will guarantee a casino profit, you are minimizing risk which could lead players down a slippery financial slope. Advantage play strategy is a good idea with sound math behind it. The same math allows for all possible results. Even if you don't have all it takes, you can enjoy more play cheaper by using it. My problem is with the implied "guarantee".Quote: Mission146I suppose my question to you is this: What is your problem with AP discussion?
Quote: SingleCoinVPThat is an excellent question. I don't have a problem with any advantage play discussion as long as it doesn't guarantee profits. Few people have or are willing to do what it takes to be an AP. When you make statements that doing this or that will guarantee a casino profit, you are minimizing risk which could lead players down a slippery financial slope. Advantage play strategy is a good idea with sound math behind it. The same math allows all possible results. Even if you don't have all it takes, you can enjoy more play cheaper by using it. My problem is with the implied "guarantee".
Okay, let's talk about this for a second because now you have stumbled upon an interesting line of discussion.
1.) Guaranteed Profits
-The first thing that I want to point out is that there are situations in which an AP IS guaranteed to profit if the AP only plays in those situations. For example, if you play Golden Egypt (vulturing) and you have a spin where the first two reels are already wild, then you WILL profit on that spin. It is impossible not to profit on that spin because the worst possible result of that spin is still profitable. This is not even a simple matter of cherry-picking. Even though I won't, I can think of five possible machines in which a profit is absolutely guaranteed given certain sets of circumstances and I am only envisioning one casino as I think of this.***
-Now, while it is true that you would not likely encounter many plays, it is perfectly within reason to only play in situations where a profit would be guaranteed. In these circumstances, while an AP would almost certainly not win enough for the time invested, the AP would definitely win.
***Also, certain must-hit situations, but would have to explain why that is mathematically true and I don't feel like it.
In any case, the GUARANTEE is not always implied, sometimes it is an actual guarantee. Mathematically, the only possible result is winning.
2. What it Takes
-This is an excellent point and probably warrants its own thread, feel free to start it if you're interested.
The three biggest problems facing a would be AP are the following:
-Risk Analysis
-Bankroll
-"Holes" or "Degening"
---The first two kind of go hand-in-hand because your risk analysis is largely dictated to you by the limits of your bankroll. Concepts such as the Kelly Criterion and other things come into play in this regard. One downfall of would-be AP's is often over betting their bankrolls or risking too much money on a specific play(s) or situation(s). Without getting into too much detail, it's possible to have one, "Play," that's actually a combination of several, "Plays," that all involve one casino and can all be stopped at once. There are also occasions where this happens and money has already been lost (intentionally, to that point) and that money and the profits are no longer recoverable. I'm speaking vaguely here, but anyone who knows what I am talking about knows what I am talking about and you can also figure it out if you really want to.
---"Holes," or, "Degening," is simply that gambling can be addictive and some people are more prone to that addiction that others. There are many people who know how to AP or who you might call APs, but then they, "Donk off," those earnings on negative expectation games. In addition to most AP plays having some degree of risk (as you mentioned) if your overall body of play is such that your -EV exceeds your +EV, then you are expected to lose money overall. It's really tough to separate who you would call AP from those who just happen to know some AP plays...but of everyone I have ever met who knows plays...more of them are more in the second department.
Similar to having holes is, "Chasing plays," this is where you go into something knowing fully well that you are under bankrolled for it. While the monetary expectation can be profit in such an instance, from a probabilistic standpoint, the most likely result is losing.
For an extreme example, suppose you had a must-hit by machine at $499.25/$500 with a $5 per penny meter move. If you had $375, then you literally could not lose because your final spin would push the meter to $500, (assuming you lose every single spin before that) the $500 hits, you profit $125. If you only have $5 though, while it is still a positive play from an EV standpoint, (the machine is in a positive state) you will more likely than not lose your $5 before triggering the must-hit.
Quote: AxelWolfNO to both, in the long run.
The greatest card counter in the world has been devastated by bad luck. Your buddy.
Quote: SingleCoinVPHas there ever been an AP who died a long term loser?
You're killing me.
You are adding nothing to the forum now. I would say this newest thread is an example of trolling and suspend you if I was the boss. Rant over.
Quote: michael99000The greatest card counter in the world has been devastated by bad luck. Your buddy.
Of course there has. An AP could play blackjack for years building up a million dollars. Then come an opportunity where he has a 99% to double his million dollars by betting it all on one event but that unfortunate 1% comes in and he loses it all.Quote: SingleCoinVPHas there ever been an AP who died a long term loser?
.
If you want to ask ridiculous questions and you'll get ridiculous answers.
You asked that specific question knowing the answer would have to be yes and you could then defend your position that winning is not guaranteed. You're not pulling most of us you're Desperately Seeking a way to prove your twisted view about Advantage Play and why people should be content losing less for entertainment because that's the dirty path that you have settled with. I'm not sure if you're trying to convince yourself or or others so you can feel better about the path you've chosen.
And has any of the usual suspects on this forum ever given you s*** about it?Quote: SOOPOOSCVP---- I play without an edge.
I would say that's probably a BIG FAT NO.
You are correct, aside from Nathan I'm sure nobody wants to hear about how much less someone is losing while playing one coin than they are playing 5 coins. Hearing how someone is Losing $5,000 a year playing one coin on video poker is really boring probably almost as boring as actually doing it.
1)ABSOLUTELY
Really? How many reel slots can anyone think of that have EV's of 95% and upward (outside of bonus days)?
All the Kickbacks you can earn is almost always better on slots. There are some places where video poker and Slots generate the same(it's usually not that good either way), however, I don't know any place, gives a better stuff on video poker.Quote: SanchoPanza“1. Given today's slot comps are better than video poker comps, are slots ever a better game?”
1)ABSOLUTELY
Really? How many reel slots can anyone think of that have EV's of 95% and upward (outside of bonus days)?
And to take it one step further, there are very few VP vulture games but there is a ton of slot machines.
If you had all the inside information for the casinos and knew everything there was to know about video poker and everything there was to know about slots, it wouldn't even be close. Slots would be far more valuable than video poker.
Do the extra points on player's cards really make up for the 10% to 15% difference in EV?Quote: AxelWolfAll the Kickbacks you can earn is almost always better on slots. There are some places where video poker and Slots generate the same(it's usually not that good either way), however, I don't know any place, gives a better stuff on video poker.
And to take it one step further, there are very few VP vulture games but there is a ton of slot machines.
If you had all the inside information for the casinos and knew everything there was to know about video poker and everything there was to know about slots, it wouldn't even be close. Slots would be far more valuable than video poker.
Quote: AxelWolfAll the Kickbacks you can earn is almost always better on slots. There are some places where video poker and Slots generate the same(it's usually not that good either way), however, I don't know any place, gives a better stuff on video poker.
And to take it one step further, there are very few VP vulture games but there is a ton of slot machines.
If you had all the inside information for the casinos and knew everything there was to know about video poker and everything there was to know about slots, it wouldn't even be close. Slots would be far more valuable than video poker.
But isn’t the reason that slot players get more kickbacks is because slots are that much worse in RTP?
I guess you’re saying the comps and kickbacks are so good with slots that it more than makes up for that RTP difference
Not just the points, I'm talking about the mail and other offers. Obviously, it's not that simple, you can't just go in and start randomly playing slots and now you're playing in a positive expectation situation, there's many other factors that go into it.Quote: SanchoPanzaDo the extra points on player's cards really make up for the 10% to 15% difference in EV?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI question how many of today's players will ever see a positive casino game that lasts long enough to make a difference in their long term results? This could be due to many causes, some from the casino and some created by the players themselves.
For starters, here are a few questions worth discussion.
1. Given today's slot comps are better than video poker comps, are slots ever a better game?
2. How does moving up and down in denomination affect your results?
3. Can walking out ahead make you a long term winner?
1. yes
2. wider
3. what?
From my experience, the biggest obstacle to gamblers is not lack of opportunities or skill. It's lack of discipline. Going off the rails and betting above my bankroll has been mine in particular. I do much better long term when I stick to a comfortable denomination. I am getting better all the time. The best way for me to control this is to reduce my session bankroll and walk when I am out of money.
I am not disputing Advantage Play math. I was able to play a positive game on videopoker.com for a year and I was four royals ahead when I quit. I don't see those games when I go to the casino. Still, I play like the experts tell me on the games I do have. There is a cost to play, but I am confident it is as small as possible.
Let's talk about boring. I get the impression this forum has some members who come here to get their kicks reading about someone else's jackpots. That's not why I am here. I want to hear from regular players like me who struggle with bad games. I want to know what they are doing to extend their play and increase their comps. I want to know about opportunities outside of Vegas or the high limit room that last more than a few hands. Above all, I want to hear from players who enjoy the game even when they don't have an advantage.
I have no clue where you're playing, but I think it's unlikely you don't have must hits there.Quote: SingleCoinVPI can clearly see how a particular gambling situation could be "Can't Lose". "Must Hit" jackpots are something I have never witnessed. We don't have those where I have played. Vulturing is not gambling in my view. I think it's the same as picking up lose tickets.
From my experience, the biggest obstacle to the best result is lack of discipline. Going off the rails and betting above my bankroll has been mine in particular. I do much better long term when I stick to a comfortable denomination. I am getting better all the time. The best way for me to control this is to cut down my session bankroll and walk when I am out of money.
I am not disputing Advantage Play math. I was able to play a positive game on videopoker.com for a year and I was four royals ahead when I quit. I don't see those games when I go to the casino. Still, I play like the experts tell me on the games I do have. There is a cost to play, but I am confident it is as small as possible.
Let's talk about boring for a minute. I get the impression this forum is full of people who come here to get their kicks reading about someone else's jackpots. That's not why I am here. I want to hear from regular players like me who struggle with bad games. I want to know what they are doing to extend their play. I want to know about opportunities outside Vegas or the high limit room. Above all, I want to hear from players who enjoy the game even when they don't have an advantage.
Now explain to me why vulturing isn't gambling? You risk money for the opportunity to win money(sometimes there's no risk, but that's besides the point). There's some vulture plays that have a significant amount of risk, one can lose more in one session than you lose in an entire year(5k apparently) .
There's really no difference between that and playing a video poker or slot Progressive. I don't know how you can argue playing video poker progressives isn't gambling.
Going around collecting slot tickets is a borderline stealing, depending on the situation, picking off a bonus isn't.
It wouldn't matter what we came up with you would claim it wasn't for you for some reason or another. And that's because you want to push your single coin video poker play agenda for whatever reason. Face it, your anti Advantage Player/Pro single coin arguments have, and will, all fail.
You've already know how to lose less money, you have told us multiple times how you do it. So what's left to discuss?
Quote: SingleCoinVPI can see how a particular gambling opportunity could be "Can't Lose". "Must Hit" jackpots are something I have never witnessed. We don't have those where I play. In my view, vulturing is not gambling. I think it's the same as picking up lose tickets.
Where do you play? Those machine types are extremely common, if you're playing at a place with Class III video poker, I'd be surprised if they do not also have some must-hit slots.
Not every vulture play is a guaranteed win, most are not. Also, it's not really even a term that has a strict definition. For me, I would just define it as participation in an AP play that has a quick turnaround. Some people say, "Vulturing progressives," but I don't really look at progressives as a vulture play. But, like I said, no strict definition for it.
Quote:From my experience, the biggest obstacle to gamblers is not lack of opportunities or skill. It's lack of discipline. Going off the rails and betting above my bankroll has been mine in particular. I do much better long term when I stick to a comfortable denomination. I am getting better all the time. The best way for me to control this is to reduce my session bankroll and walk when I am out of money.
If we're still talking about APs, then I can agree that lack of discipline is a problem as mentioned in the other post. There is something of a lack of opportunities depending on what sort of AP you do and where you go. A good bit of that is based on competition and some places have more competition (primarily with respect to vulturing) than others. The bigger time APs don't really mess with vulturing plays, for the most part, it's mostly for the hustlers.
As far as session bankroll is concerned for -EV gambling, your session bankroll could be zero and you would not have to worry about walking in the first place because you wouldn't be there to begin with. Of course, if it is fun for you and you have a fixed maximum actual cost in mind, then that's fine too. The one truth is that AP could not exist without people playing losing games.
Quote:I am not disputing Advantage Play math. I was able to play a positive game on videopoker.com for a year and I was four royals ahead when I quit. I don't see those games when I go to the casino. Still, I play like the experts tell me on the games I do have. There is a cost to play, but I am confident it is as small as possible.
That's good. Yeah, most casinos do not have +EV video poker just to sit down and play, but video poker can be positive at some when considering other things.
Quote:Let's talk about boring. I get the impression this forum has some members who come here to get their kicks reading about someone else's jackpots. That's not why I am here. I want to hear from regular players like me who struggle with bad games. I want to know what they are doing to extend their play. I want to know about opportunities outside of Vegas or the high limit room that last more than a few hands. Above all, I want to hear from players who enjoy the game even when they don't have an advantage.
I don't know anything about reading about jackpots as that does not really concern me. For my part, I have very rarely mentioned jackpots I have won or posted any pictures simply because I don't want to give the idea that vulturing in my area (known) is any good because it's not that good. More than that, it's really not in my interest to encourage any competition, though I am not particularly active.
If you want to hear from regular players, just go to any casino and talk to literally almost anyone just sitting pounding the button on a slot machine. They put money in, hit the button, stuff happens, they usually lose...if asked they will generally either think they are about even or have lost less lifetime than they actually have. Not really a fruitful or particularly interesting conversation in my view, but to each their own.
There are plenty of opportunities outside of Vegas and high-limit rooms that last more than a few hands, but I don't think anyone is going to sit here and spoon-feed you their entire playbook. If you hunt and peck around, you'll find some information about some of this stuff. Most of it I really don't think you would be interested in, to be honest. Most anything is going to be a pretty big time investment, so I don't know how much interest you would have in that anyway.
Struggling with bad games doesn't sound much like entertainment to me. It wouldn't matter what they're doing because what works at one place isn't going to work at another place.Quote: SingleCoinVPI want to hear from regular players like me who struggle with bad games. I want to know what they are doing to extend their play and increase their comps. I want to know about opportunities outside of Vegas or the high limit room that last more than a few hands. Above all, I want to hear from players who enjoy the game even when they don't have an advantage.
I'm not sure why it matters if it's inside or outside of Vegas it's pretty much the same games and and whatnot everywhere nowadays, as a matter of fact ,probably better outside of Vegas. While everything might be similar there are some outlier places but work differently and are fairly generous.
I don't think there's anything you can do to extend your comps playing single coin video poker.
Quote: Mission146Okay, let's talk about this for a second because now you have stumbled upon an interesting line of discussion.
1.) Guaranteed Profits
-The first thing that I want to point out is that there are situations in which an AP IS guaranteed to profit if the AP only plays in those situations. For example, if you play Golden Egypt (vulturing) and you have a spin where the first two reels are already wild, then you WILL profit on that spin. It is impossible not to profit on that spin because the worst possible result of that spin is still profitable. This is not even a simple matter of cherry-picking. Even though I won't, I can think of five possible machines in which a profit is absolutely guaranteed given certain sets of circumstances and I am only envisioning one casino as I think of this.***
-Now, while it is true that you would not likely encounter many plays, it is perfectly within reason to only play in situations where a profit would be guaranteed. In these circumstances, while an AP would almost certainly not win enough for the time invested, the AP would definitely win.
***Also, certain must-hit situations, but would have to explain why that is mathematically true and I don't feel like it.
In any case, the GUARANTEE is not always implied, sometimes it is an actual guarantee. Mathematically, the only possible result is winning.
2. What it Takes
-This is an excellent point and probably warrants its own thread, feel free to start it if you're interested.
The three biggest problems facing a would be AP are the following:
-Risk Analysis
-Bankroll
-"Holes" or "Degening"
---The first two kind of go hand-in-hand because your risk analysis is largely dictated to you by the limits of your bankroll. Concepts such as the Kelly Criterion and other things come into play in this regard. One downfall of would-be AP's is often over betting their bankrolls or risking too much money on a specific play(s) or situation(s). Without getting into too much detail, it's possible to have one, "Play," that's actually a combination of several, "Plays," that all involve one casino and can all be stopped at once. There are also occasions where this happens and money has already been lost (intentionally, to that point) and that money and the profits are no longer recoverable. I'm speaking vaguely here, but anyone who knows what I am talking about knows what I am talking about and you can also figure it out if you really want to.
---"Holes," or, "Degening," is simply that gambling can be addictive and some people are more prone to that addiction that others. There are many people who know how to AP or who you might call APs, but then they, "Donk off," those earnings on negative expectation games. In addition to most AP plays having some degree of risk (as you mentioned) if your overall body of play is such that your -EV exceeds your +EV, then you are expected to lose money overall. It's really tough to separate who you would call AP from those who just happen to know some AP plays...but of everyone I have ever met who knows plays...more of them are more in the second department.
Similar to having holes is, "Chasing plays," this is where you go into something knowing fully well that you are under bankrolled for it. While the monetary expectation can be profit in such an instance, from a probabilistic standpoint, the most likely result is losing.
For an extreme example, suppose you had a must-hit by machine at $499.25/$500 with a $5 per penny meter move. If you had $375, then you literally could not lose because your final spin would push the meter to $500, (assuming you lose every single spin before that) the $500 hits, you profit $125. If you only have $5 though, while it is still a positive play from an EV standpoint, (the machine is in a positive state) you will more likely than not lose your $5 before triggering the must-hit.
This is excellently written, and I implore Phil to read it very carefully.
Quote: SOOPOO
You are adding nothing to the forum now. I would say this newest thread is an example of trolling and suspend you if I was the boss. Rant over.
This is why he's currently here. He's currently in the middle of a 6 month suspension at videopoker.com primarily for rehashing very similar topics repeatedly. This is basically the stuff he's posted for years there. And the AP/mathy types on that forum (including myself as Vman96) have given him similar responses as to what has been written here, but some of them at videopoker.com come off a bit more snippy lately because they have read and responded to the same basic ideas for years.
From what I read, he also tends to believe that Bob Dancer over promotes the possibilities of winning long-term solely from VP. He is also concerned that others will end up losing lots of money trying to play like Bob suggests.
NY did not have any must hits for quite a long time of any kind and still does not in their class 3 video lottery gaming.
they even have the same must hits machines (mustang money seems most prevalent) with the must hits called "hit at any denominations") as the wording I believe. But definitely not a must hit by.
First time I observed must hits in NYS was in the newly opened catskills resorts so I assume they may exist as well in the new vegas style gaming casinos further up north I haven't been to yet.
But still absolutely zero must hits inside the racinos/class 3 gaming facilities.
Perhaps thats why Axel and other APs could not understand why I had no clue about the "gambling 101" math of must hits but with most of the casinos in my area not having any they simply were off my radar
Videopoker.com has a very close relationship with the gaming industry and it's sponsors. Their web administrator was a recent guest on Dancer's Radio Show. Any talk of limiting losses by limiting coin-in is not tolerated. That kind of talk is not good for business. If repeating yourself is grounds for banning, most of the participants would have been banned years ago.Quote: tringlomaneHe's currently in the middle of a 6 month suspension at videopoker.com primarily for rehashing very similar topics repeatedly. This is basically the stuff he's posted for years there. And the AP/mathy types on that forum (including myself as Vman96) have given him similar responses as to what has been written here, but some of them at videopoker.com come off a bit more snippy lately because they have read and responded to the same basic ideas for years.
From what I read, he also tends to believe that Bob Dancer over promotes the possibilities of winning long-term solely from VP. He is also concerned that others will end up losing lots of money trying to play like Bob suggests.
I talk about the video poker games I find at the casinos where I play today, not video poker history or games you may find in Vegas designed to draw players from all over America. The players I talk to and about are not APs. They know an advantage game when they see one and they haven't seen one in years.
I do not know Bob Dancer and have never met him in person. I think he is a great businessman. Anyone who can get casinos and players to pay him at the same time is a genius. I believe he is a long term winner. I do not know where his profits are made. No one will ever know because he does not post his tax returns. What I do know is he never responds to questions about playing negative games. As 99% of us play them, this seems odd to me. Why take up an entire forum talking about games only a few of us play? Is the average quarter player only going to play when he/she has an advantage? Are they going to sit on their wallets looking for a progressive or stay up all night waiting for their name to be called out of a barrel? I think not.
These forums should make room for players who do not play with an advantage. On videopoker.com, I asked the administrator for a separate Recreational Forum and my request was granted. I did not post on the Strategy Forum, leaving it to the experts. Our hope was to have a place where we could discuss playing the game without being overburdened by math. It turned out to be the most popular Forum by far. This did not sit well with some strategy diehards. They hijacked our threads and insulted small time players. Bob Dancer left the forum to punish us. At this time, the complaints have been growing. Read some of the comments yourself. Video poker is not only for professionals. The game is big enough for everyone and everyone should have a voice.
Quote: darkozFor Axel and Missions info, without trying to hijack the thread,
NY did not have any must hits for quite a long time of any kind and still does not in their class 3 video lottery gaming.
they even have the same must hits machines (mustang money seems most prevalent) with the must hits called "hit at any denominations") as the wording I believe. But definitely not a must hit by.
First time I observed must hits in NYS was in the newly opened catskills resorts so I assume they may exist as well in the new vegas style gaming casinos further up north I haven't been to yet.
But still absolutely zero must hits inside the racinos/class 3 gaming facilities.
Perhaps thats why Axel and other APs could not understand why I had no clue about the "gambling 101" math of must hits but with most of the casinos in my area not having any they simply were off my radar
Missouri has banned must hits since about 2014, iirc.
Quote: SingleCoinVPThis is accurate. Videopoker.com has a very close relationship with the gaming industry and it's sponsors. Any talk of limiting losses by limiting coin-in is not tolerated. That kind of talk is not good for business. If repeating yourself is grounds for banning, most of the participants would have been banned years ago.
I talk about the video poker I find in my casinos, not video poker history or games you may find in Vegas designed to draw players from all over America. The players I talk to and about are not APs. They know an advantage game when they see one and they haven't seen one in years.
I do not know Bob Dancer and have never met him in person. I think he is a great businessman. Anyone who can get casinos and players to pay him at the same time is a genius. I believe he is a long term winner. I do not know where his profits are made. No one will every know because he does not post his tax returns. What I do know is he never responds to questions about playing negative games. As 99% of us play them, this seems odd to me. Why take up an entire forum talking about games only a few of us play? Is the average quarter player only going to play when he/she has an advantage? Are they going to sit on their wallets looking for a progressive or stay up all night waiting for their name to be called out of a barrel? I think not.
These forums should make room for players who do not play with an advantage. On videopoker.com, I asked the administrator for a separate Recreational Forum and my request was granted. Our hope was to have a place where we could discuss playing the game without being overburdened by math or by experts. It turned out to be the most popular Forum by far. This did not sit well with some strategy diehards. They hijacked our threads and started insulting small time players. At this time, the complaints have been growing. Read some of the comments yourself. Video poker is not only for professionals. The game is big enough for everyone and everyone should have a voice.
They tolerated you there for years. No one really cared there that you one coined either. More people cared about when you would bet 1 coin at $5 instead of betting max coins at $1 on the same paytable. I never got your reasoning behind doing that.
The big issue though is that you start the same topics, over, over, and over and not listening to the warnings there is what got you suspended this last time. You consistently make circular arguments, most members give you a logical answer on the questions you ask, but you often don't stop after that. You'll ask a similar question within a couple of days. Is it because it wasn't the answer you wanted to hear the first time?
And people at WoV don't tend to talk much about VP here because we know many of the answers to the more common questions already. And there isn't a bunch of new blood on here. So unfortunately, you're probably going to be treated similarly here.
What is there to say about Advantage Play that hasn't already been said? My closet is full of video poker strategy books. I have read all of them numerous times. I own three copies of VPW software. I carry a laptop with me in my hotel room just in case I find a pay schedule I haven't seen before. It takes a lot of discipline to fight off the gaming industry's marketing. I'm not there yet, but I'm a lot closer than I was ten years ago.
I agree with Axel, that I very much doubt they don't have any must-hits. I'm pretty sure their sister property, that I have visited recently, does. I think you may not be familiar with the great variety of must-hit offerings available. But I could be wrong, and I won't be verifying it any time soon. (I REALLY don't like that place.)
I do play negative expectation games for entertainment sometimes. It's not like there are only APs in here, and there are several others who have also said so in past discussions. Not really sure what your point is, though.
I will be in Hollywood over Christmas. How do I tell if a casino game is "must hit" and how do I tell if that time is close?Quote: beachbumbabsI agree with Axel, that I very much doubt they don't have any must-hits. I'm pretty sure their sister property, that I have visited recently, does. I think you may not be familiar with the great variety of must-hit offerings available. But I could be wrong, and I won't be verifying it any time soon. (I REALLY don't like that place).
Quote: SingleCoinVP
What is there to say about Advantage Play that hasn't already been said? My closet is full of video poker strategy books. I have read all of them numerous times. I own three copies of VPW software. I carry a laptop with me in my hotel room just in case I find a pay schedule I haven't seen before. It takes a lot of discipline to fight off the gaming industry's marketing. I'm not there yet, but I'm a lot closer than I was ten years ago.
Cool. If you know everything that there is to know about video poker advantage play as relates paytables and where to find strategies and such...then you probably know about 0.5% of everything there is to know about AP.
My wife and I have reduced our casino play considerably over the past year. This has been in response to further odds reductions. We would like to learn to play table games if they are better than 97% VP. Table games are intimidating when you are first learning. We don't wish to hold up or annoy other players. Any suggestions?Quote: beachbumbabsThe reason you don't see many great games is that you're in a monopolistic market. Doesn't matter that they can offer Class III. They don't have to offer good games, so they offer crap. They're so bad, in fact, it's been 5 years since I've troubled them with my business, and before that, I only played table games.
Quote: SingleCoinVPMy wife and I have reduced our casino play considerably over the past year. This has been in response to further odds reductions. We would like to learn to play table games if they are better than 97% VP. Table games are intimidating when you are first learning. We don't wish to hold up or annoy other players. Any suggestions?
Craps, take chips and place on Pass Line. Not a lot to learn.
Craps is awful noisy. One of things we like about video poker is the solitude. Someone suggested Baccarat betting on the banker. Here's what this website says. 1.6% is better than 3% video poker.Quote: Mission146Craps, take chips and place on Pass Line. Not a lot to learn.
If optimal strategy is compared to optimal strategy then craps is better. By betting only the line bets and taking maximum odds the combined house edge in craps is well under 1%. The best you can do is baccarat is bet on the banker at a house edge of 1.06%. Wizzard of Odds
Quote: SingleCoinVPI will be in Hollywood over Christmas. How do I tell if a casino game is "must hit" and how do I tell if that time is close?
See? As I said before, you are lazy. You claimed to look everywhere in AC and the Borgota and couldn't find any 9-6 JoB. That's such nonsense, you're just lazy. You mentioned only Red Rock in Vegas might have some FPDW, more nonsense. Lazy. And I don't feel sorry for you one bit. So you ask about "must hits"? Here's my advice. FIGURE IT OUT.
This is the same kind of answer I would expect from Bob Dancer. All words with no substance. Would it hurt to answer my question or don't you know the answer?Quote: bobbartopSee? As I said before, you are lazy. You claimed to look everywhere in AC and the Borgota and couldn't find any 9-6 JoB. That's such nonsense, you're just lazy. You mentioned only Red Rock in Vegas might have some FPDW, more nonsense. Lazy. And I don't feel sorry for you one bit. So you ask about "must hits"? Here's my advice. FIGURE IT OUT.
Quote: SingleCoinVPAll words with no substance.
This sentence describes more then a few members here, as well as 90% of the Internet in general.
Quote: SingleCoinVPCraps is awful noisy. One of things we like about video poker is the solitude. Someone suggested Baccarat betting on the banker. Here's what this website says. 1.6% is better than 3% video poker.
If optimal strategy is compared to optimal strategy then craps is better. By betting only the line bets and taking maximum odds the combined house edge in craps is well under 1%. The best you can do is baccarat is bet on the banker at a house edge of 1.06%. Wizzard of Odds
Banker on Baccarat is good for what you want, but I don't know what sort of minimums you're looking for. Baccarat tends to have higher minimums than many other games.
If you convert house edge to element-of-risk and use that to compare to the house edge of what you are saying is 3% on video poker, then pretty much any table game that is not Roulette is going to work as long as you stick to the base game (no side bets) and learn the strategy. Craps/Baccarat are just put your bet where it is supposed to go and watch what happens. Three Card Poker there is only one thing to remember: whether to raise or not. Raise on Q64 or better.
Blackjack, Mississippi Stud and Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em are also games that would be less than 3% EoR with optimal strategy, but those strategies may be more complicated than what you are wanting.
I never really play table games and have never really played them that often. Craps, Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, Pai-Gow Poker and Let it Ride are the only ones I like...I think virtually every other table game is profoundly boring...but most of them have an Element of Risk lower than 3% but strategies that vary in how complex they are.
