Video Poker Progressive Question

When playing progressive video poker games that return >100%, how important are strategy deviations from basic strategy? I am referring to progressives only on the royal and so I understand strategy changes to go for the royal are needed and will generally lower the royal cycle. Let's assume where the meter currently stands the return is 101% and the machine has a 1% meter. If I choose to play the basic strategy of the game am I giving up too much? This particular machine is a single machine and not a bank of machines.

The best advice I can give you is to have some sort of app, like WinPoker or the equivalent and run the scenarios to see if strategy changes are justified.

You can create the paytable you want, using the current value of the progressive as the top prize, and then put in some basic hands, like high pair with a 3 card royal draw and see what the EV is for keeping the pair or going for the royal. The higher the royal, the more times you will break up something to chase it.

WinPoker is the only time I have ever spent $10 for an app, and it was the best $10 I ever spent. I look up hands while I am in action if there is any question on what the best +EV play should be. Usually the ones I look up are so close that it does not matter.

Make sure your particular strategy for the game/pay table you are playing is perfect, and the deviations should be relatively easy to determine.

Quote: ROYALPIRATE

When playing progressive video poker games that return >100%, how important are strategy deviations from basic strategy? I am referring to progressives only on the royal and so I understand strategy changes to go for the royal are needed and will generally lower the royal cycle. Let's assume where the meter currently stands the return is 101% and the machine has a 1% meter. If I choose to play the basic strategy of the game am I giving up too much? This particular machine is a single machine and not a bank of machines.

At LEAST break the high pairs in a JoB-type game to draw to 3-card RFs. That is the major play, choose that over basic strategy.

Quote: FCBLComish

WinPoker is the only time I have ever spent $10 for an app, and it was the best $10 I ever spent. I look up hands while I am in action ...

Are you sure you want to do that?

Quote: FCBLComish

The best advice I can give you is to have some sort of app, like WinPoker or the equivalent and run the scenarios to see if strategy changes are justified.

You can create the paytable you want, using the current value of the progressive as the top prize, and then put in some basic hands, like high pair with a 3 card royal draw and see what the EV is for keeping the pair or going for the royal. The higher the royal, the more times you will break up something to chase it.

WinPoker is the only time I have ever spent $10 for an app, and it was the best $10 I ever spent. I look up hands while I am in action if there is any question on what the best +EV play should be. Usually the ones I look up are so close that it does not matter.

Make sure your particular strategy for the game/pay table you are playing is perfect, and the deviations should be relatively easy to determine.

I also have this app and yes I agree it was a great buy. I use it to make strategy changes. I was just wondering how much I was penalizing myself if I made a basic strategy play that ended up not being the most optimal based on the current value of the royal. Hopefully that makes sense.

Quote: ROYALPIRATE

This particular machine is a single machine and not a bank of machines.

I missed your last sentence. Is this a game you can stay on by yourself or with a partner until it is hit? It makes a difference. I should let some smarter posters than myself elaborate on this, but do consider this. It's significant.

Quote: bobbartop

Are you sure you want to do that?

It has to be discrete, and it depends on where I am playing.

Quote: ROYALPIRATE

When playing progressive video poker games that return >100%, how important are strategy deviations from basic strategy? I am referring to progressives only on the royal and so I understand strategy changes to go for the royal are needed and will generally lower the royal cycle. Let's assume where the meter currently stands the return is 101% and the machine has a 1% meter. If I choose to play the basic strategy of the game am I giving up too much? This particular machine is a single machine and not a bank of machines.

It's going to depend on how much the Royal is contributing to the over all payback, i.e. what's the Royal at.

If you had a good machine like a 9/6 with a stand alone prog you could lock up. It might not even be worthwhile to make the changes.

The question I have, why not just learn a few of the most important changes?

Quote: AxelWolf

If you had a good machine like a 9/6 with a stand alone prog you could lock up. It might not even be worthwhile to make the changes.

That's what I was trying to say to him in my second post, Axel. Perhaps you could elaborate and explain it to him, I know you'll explain it better than I can. I never even considered it until I heard Frank Kneeland talking about it. It's a significant concept. As with most things, I arrived at it late in life.

Quote: AxelWolf

It's going to depend on how much the Royal is contributing to the over all payback, i.e. what's the Royal at.

If you had a good machine like a 9/6 with a stand alone prog you could lock up. It might not even be worthwhile to make the changes.

The question I have, why not just learn a few of the most important changes?

I think you've answered my question. Assuming I could stay on the machine until it hit, strategy changes would not be necessary, but they may "shorten" the time to hit the royal, but I would still eventually hit it and get the same return EV wise. Please correct me if that is an incorrect statement. I can find this machine or similar machine at 101% quite regularly so I don't need to stay until it hits. I can simply return at a later time and start playing again as long as the casino hasn't changed the pay table.

Quote: bobbartop

Are you sure you want to do that?

I would never use this app while playing. I'm hesitant to even use it in the bathroom at a casino.

Quote: ROYALPIRATE

I think you've answered my question. Assuming I could stay on the machine until it hit, strategy changes would not be necessary, but they may "shorten" the time to hit the royal, but I would still eventually hit it and get the same return EV wise. Please correct me if that is an incorrect statement. I can find this machine or similar machine at 101% quite regularly so I don't need to stay until it hits. I can simply return at a later time and start playing again as long as the casino hasn't changed the pay table.

If it is possible to stay on a progressive by yourself, you can add the meter to your EV. Have Axel explain it. I'm not very good at splainin things.

Quote: bobbartop

If it is possible to stay on a progressive by yourself, you can add the meter to your EV. Have Axel explain it. I'm not very good at splainin things.

Yes a 1% meter rise would add 1% to your EV assuming you stay until you hit I believe.

If you can lock it up, then use a strategy where the royal pays an amount where the return is 100% exactly. That’ll get you max value on the play.

Edit: Maybe you’d have to play as if it’s a 99% return due to the 1% meter. Now I’m forgetting which. But you can do the math and figure it out.

Quote: RS

If you can lock it up, then use a strategy where the royal pays an amount where the return is 100% exactly. That’ll get you max value on the play.

Edit: Maybe you’d have to play as if it’s a 99% return due to the 1% meter. Now I’m forgetting which. But you can do the math and figure it out.

Maybe I should take a re-look at Frank's book. This is interesting.

Quote: bobbartop

Maybe I should take a re-look at Frank's book. This is interesting.

Yeah, it's kind of counter-intuitive.

$1 9/6 JOB, $8k royal, 1% meter, 0.25% slot cash-back, assuming 1,000 rounds per hour:

#1: $8k RF strategy: you'd have a 1.8% edge straight up, 1% meter movement, and 0.25% CB. The total is 3.05% edge. Over an expected 32,743 hands, that's $5 * 32,743 * 0.0305 = $4,993 in EV or $152.49/hr in EV.

#2: $4,900 RF strategy (game is almost exactly 100%) -- you're obviously breaking even straight up, plus 1% meter and 0.25% CB. Edge is 1.25%. Expected to play 35,873 rounds, that's $5 * 35,873 * 0.0125 = $2,242 in EV PLUS $3,100 on the royal flush...since it's really at $8,000 not $4,900. Overall it's $2,242 + $3,100 = $5,342 over 35,873 rounds.

#3: $2,200 RF strategy (game is 98.75%) -- you're breaking even after you include the 1% meter and 0.25% CB. You expect to play 48,563 rounds. Your expected profit is going to be $8,000 - $2,200 = $5,800.


TLDR:

#1: $4,993 over 33 hours. $151/hr
#2: $5,342 over 36 hours. $148/hr
#3: $5,800 over 49 hours. $118/hr



Correct me if I'm wrong anywhere.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-74-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-6-d-9-d-25-d-50-d-1600/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-74-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-6-d-9-d-25-d-50-d-980/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-74-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-6-d-9-d-25-d-50-d-440/



Caveat: Remember, this is only if you're able to lock up the machine(s) and play until it hits. If you're competing against others, then this strategy isn't necessarily the best. I guess other stuff needs to be taken into account -- like how many people are you competing against and at what theoretical RF cycle are they playing to? Are you playing against 10 people who are going for a RF no matter what (EG: Holding 1 high card over a pat 4oak, for instance)? They're cycle is going to be super low, and you're just hurting yourself by trying to extend the play time because they're very likely to snap you off anyway. OTOH, are you playing against 10 people who are playing as if the RF is $2,200 (#3 example)? If so, then you should too. Obviously, this isn't something you can easily figure out, unless everyone else there is an AP....in which case, they're probably using strategy #1, in which case, you should too.

Quote: RS

.

you forgot to account for the old lady who gets there at like 5am after a full night's sleep after you've been on the machine for 13 hours and snaps it off while holding a random ten by itself

Quote: djatc

you forgot to account for the old lady who gets there at like 5am after a full night's sleep after you've been on the machine for 13 hours and snaps it off while holding a random ten by itself

Oh, when she tried to hold 9T offsuit but missed the 9 and ended up hitting the RF? Yeah, that wasn’t taken into account in my quickmafs. After taking that into account, the game is -EV.

Quote: ROYALPIRATE

I think you've answered my question. Assuming I could stay on the machine until it hit, strategy changes would not be necessary, but they may "shorten" the time to hit the royal, but I would still eventually hit it and get the same return EV wise. Please correct me if that is an incorrect statement. I can find this machine or similar machine at 101% quite regularly so I don't need to stay until it hits. I can simply return at a later time and start playing again as long as the casino hasn't changed the pay table.

um.. I think strategy changes are needed if you want to achieve that EV because it's skewed towards a Royal.
else you're dumping in more $ than necessary.

I played a .25 9/5 ddb plus with $3000 progressive Royal (104%) for 16hrs using adjusted strategy.
ie: break high pairs for 3 to a Royal, any 2 suited Royal cards better than 2 unsuited royal cards such as ATs > JQo

never got it :(

edit:
I stand corrected by RS's post above *IF* you can lock up the machine till it hits.
for me, I couldn't lock up that 104% machine.
plus even if I could, I want highest $/hr. I don't want to spend an additional 13hrs playing.
fatigue (physical/mental) will set it even if you get a few hrs rest inbetween sessions

Quote: RS

Oh, when she tried to hold 9T offsuit but missed the 9 and ended up hitting the RF? Yeah, that wasn’t taken into account in my quickmafs. After taking that into account, the game is -EV.

What does the M in your new avatar mean?

Quote: 100xOdds

What does the M in your new avatar mean?

It’s the M in Trump.

Quote: 100xOdds

I don't want to spend an additional 13hrs playing.
fatigue (physical/mental) will set it even if you get a few hrs rest inbetween sessions

There's a hierarchy of how progressives should end:
1. You hit the progressive within your first hour
2. You hit the progressive and make money
3. You don't hit the progressive and get snapped off the first hour, but you made money
4. You don't hit the progressive but break even or lose little
5. You don't hit the progressive, lose a lot, and you've been at it for 12+ hours

last one I played I didn't hit it, but made money. I think it was about 6 hours or so of bangin away. Profit was over EV.

Quote: djatc

There's a hierarchy of how progressives should end:
1. You hit the progressive within your first hour
2. You hit the progressive and make money
3. You don't hit the progressive and get snapped off the first hour, but you made money
4. You don't hit the progressive but break even or lose little
5. You don't hit the progressive, lose a lot, and you've been at it for 12+ hours

last one I played I didn't hit it, but made money. I think it was about 6 hours or so of bangin away. Profit was over EV.

yeah... I'm #5. lost $1500. :(
but that's somewhat expected since I sacrificed high pairs and better EV situations for Royal possibilities.

what do you mean snapped off in #3?

Quote: RS

It’s the M in Trump.

so 5 of the best APs in this forum are Trumpers? :(

Quote: 100xOdds

yeah... I'm #5. lost $1500. :(
but that's somewhat expected since I sacrificed high pairs and better EV situations for Royal possibilities.

what do you mean snapped off in #3?

It means you're playing on a bank of machines with a shared Progressive, and someone else hit it while you were playing for it.

Quote: beachbumbabs

It means you're playing on a bank of machines with a shared Progressive, and someone else hit it while you were playing for it.

ahh thx.
mine was a solo machine.

Quote: FCBLComish

It has to be discrete, and it depends on where I am playing.

Don't do that in NV. It is a felony. Anything you can see, the cameras can see.

OP needs to get the strategy chart at home and memorize the changes needed, then go to the casino and play.

Quote: KevinAA

Don't do that in NV. It is a felony. Anything you can see, the cameras can see.

OP needs to get the strategy chart at home and memorize the changes needed, then go to the casino and play.

Last I heard this particular application of the law had never been litigated and Nersesian thought it would probably not hold up. (Though of course just being prosecuted is highly undesirable.)

Am I mistaken?

Quote: smurgerburger

Last I heard this particular application of the law had never been litigated and Nersesian thought it would probably not hold up. (Though of course just being prosecuted is highly undesirable.)

Am I mistaken?

I've never heard of any prosecutions of violating the electronic device law for video poker strategy advice. It might hold up in court, but I think it would be a casino PR nightmare.