VP is dead
Quote: FinsRuleAllowing AP play makes no sense on any level for casinos. I have no idea why they allow it. If I owned a casino, I’d set every slot, table game and vp to pay 95-99%.
I’d offer no free play and only give hotel and buffet comps.
I look at this from a poker player's perspective, and I strongly disagree enough to post.
A poker room manager can look at a professional poker player the same way a casino manager looks at an AP. Every dollar a pro poker player takes out of the cardroom is a dollar that would likely have been raked off if it had gone to a rec. If you owned a poker room, maybe you'd opt to increase the rake collection to a point where +EV play became impossible... say 10% of each pot, no cap. I've seen rakes this high in Caribbean casinos. This pretty much makes sure that every player who comes in will be a loser in the long run.
It also completely kills the games.
Cardroom managers should think of pro poker players as basically a marketing cost. They go around bragging about their wins to their friends and family, bringing more interest to the game. They fill seats, giving social proof to the random recs that pass by. Many of the pros who THINK they are beating the game, are actually longterm losers who will eventually rake off just like those random recs they look down on... or lose it in -EV pit games. It is much cheaper to create an ecosystem where a few 1/2nl grinders can beat the game than to pay prop players and shills to fill those 1/2 seats.
Casinos really should be thinking of APs in the same way. They are very good for the longterm health of the industry.
Incidentally, this is why I'm much more bullish on IGT stock than any other slot machine manufacturer. They actually seem to get this concept... that if you make a variable state machine capable of being vultured, you are never going to have an empty seat for long. And even if it's just some AP going through GE coins or UXP multipliers, it gives the illusion of action to the random rec who is there for a conference and trying to decide between the Buffalo Grand machine or the Sphinx 4d.
I haven't seen the numbers, but I'd bet that all things being equal, a slot machine that is vulnerable to advantage play overall will outperform one that isn't.
Quote: vonnegutWell... I just did. So I guess you can.
But the comparison fails. When a winning poker player plays at a casino, it increases their revenue by adding to the rake. When a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.
-----
The higher level video poker players that I know are doing as well as ever (some even better than ever, giving up other plays to focus more time on VP). But they are definitely spreading their action around a lot more. Based on that, I would say not dead, just harder to find. At the lower levels, from my perspective, it's the same as it always has been in Las Vegas.
Quote: vonnegutI look at this from a poker player's perspective, and I strongly disagree enough to post.
A poker room manager can look at a professional poker player the same way a casino manager looks at an AP..
I just don't buy this
I play at some crowded poker rooms
Tampa Hard Rock generally has 30 to 40 tables going
The Tampa Hard Rock could care less if some pros are in the room.
The cardroom is going to make good money regardless
but
They will watch their BJ tables closely
I highly recommend vonnegut's recent blog post. Might give folks some idea where he's coming from on this. I too think it's a flawed analogy in some ways, but I take his point.
Quote: terapinedI just don't buy this
I play at some crowded poker rooms
Tampa Hard Rock generally has 30 to 40 tables going
The Tampa Hard Rock could care less if some pros are in the room.
The cardroom is going to make good money regardless
but
They will watch their BJ tables closely
Florida had restrictive poker rules until a few years ago. Give it another decade; they won't be that busy.
Quote: beachbumbabsWelcome back to the forum, vonnegut.
I highly recommend vonnegut's recent blog post. Might give folks some idea where he's coming from on this. I too think it's a flawed analogy in some ways, but I take his point.
Thanks for the heads up on the blog post, it was a good read!
Quote: TomGBut the comparison fails. When a winning poker player plays at a casino, it increases their revenue by adding to the rake. When a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.
I agree 100%.
I've heard vonnegut's argument before. Some AP's think they are actually healthy for the gaming business by giving recreational players hope of winning. I think they say this to give themselves a sense of economic worth to society. However, most people don't care if other players win or lose and I suspect those few who do care prefer other players to lose, so that the casino remains financially healthy and more inclined to be generous to their customers and profitable to their stock-holders.
Quote: TomGWhen a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.
At the risk of repeating myself ad nauseum, the above doesn't apply to some winning APs playing progressive video poker. An AP playing a 7-5 Bonus Poker progressive with an 8000 coin jackpot is playing a winning game. As long as the casino is not giving him too much in mailers or benefits, the casino is winning off his play. The jackpot is "banked". That leaves him playing a 98% base game. If this AP adjusts his strategy to play more aggressively toward the jackpot, he's losing even more on the base game, but winning more on the whole, and so is the casino, a win-win, symbiotic relationship.
So I would set my casino up like that, and roll out the red carpet for certain APs, like the Progressive Video Poker Symbionese Liberation Army.
Quote: WizardI agree 100%.
I've heard vonnegut's argument before. Some AP's think they are actually healthy for the gaming business by giving recreational players hope of winning. I think they say this to give themselves a sense of economic worth to society. However, most people don't care if other players win or lose and I suspect those few who do care prefer other players to lose, so that the casino remains financially healthy and more inclined to be generous to their customers and profitable to their stock-holders.
I may be wrong, but didn't Bill Zender basically believe in ignoring most green chip play? I am still of the opinion that a full crowd attracts more people, meaning an overall increase in the casino's profit. Just get them in and under your roof, the rest will all work out.
I'm also pretty sure Zender PROVED that poor penetration costs the House money.
It must just be variance, boys.
(-;
Quote: tringlomaneFlorida had restrictive poker rules until a few years ago. Give it another decade; they won't be that busy.
????????
Do you live in Florida?
Its been 10 years since they uncapped poker. Not a few years.
The poker room has grown the last 10 years. Really grown.
The last 10 years, they have moved the poker room 3 times because the room needed to be expanded 3 times due to massive business
You obviously don't understand gambling in Florida
The Hard Rock Tampa is one of the busiest casinos in the country
They keep expanding because business is growing. Its like the 6th largest casino on the planet
They will continue to make tons of money into the next decade
That's guaranteed because they have a monopoly
No competition for hundreds of miles
A huge city like Orlando, where do you go to play poker, you drive to Tampa
Quote: terapined????????
Do you live in Florida?
Its been 10 years since they uncapped poker. Not a few years.
The poker room has grown the last 10 years. Really grown.
The last 10 years, they have moved the poker room 3 times because the room needed to be expanded 3 times due to massive business
You obviously don't understand gambling in Florida
The Hard Rock Tampa is one of the busiest casinos in the country
They keep expanding because business is growing. Its like the 6th largest casino on the planet
They will continue to make tons of money into the next decade
That's guaranteed because they have a monopoly
No competition for hundreds of miles
A huge city like Orlando, where do you go to play poker, you drive to Tampa
We're both wrong. But you're closer than me.
It's been since uncapped since July 1, 2010. But happy for you that Florida still acts like they are poker circa 2006 apparently. It's been dead in STL for years. And we had a $500 loss limit every two hours until 2008.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state--regional/limit-poker-becomes-legal-florida/wZp0EkODmGzv4FOAbfZ8VP/
Quote: terapinedIf I am not a professional gambler
Why cant I itemize and deduct my losses
Ed, since I know you are a single guy, and I have a general idea about your income, you will most likely just use the 'standard deduction' which will exceed any combination of itemized deductions, including gambling losses. I am not an expert, but pretty sure that's how it works.
FinsRule casino would be modeled after that.
Quote: FinsRuleIs Ameritstar STL still the best casino? I think it’s my favorite non-Vegas casino I’ve been to.
FinsRule casino would be modeled after that.
Lol. I would answer no, but to do so would be to acknowledge that they were the best? Will assume was meant as a joke.
It seems that most VP players do not look at the paytable. They just sit down and start playing. So if half the machines are 98% and half are 99%, the casino's overall VP payback is 98.5%. It seems that more than half are 98%. If the casino gets greedy and makes them all 98%, a bunch of people (such as myself) will never visit.
In addition, not everyone is a good VP player. Every so often I watch someone else play, and it is rare for someone to hold just A when there is a two to a royal TA. That is the most common mistake.
I also frequently see people hold JQA different suits instead of JQ.
Many people are what I call "royal flush guy". Royal Flush Guy holds whatever cards are in a royal flush, like suited KA instead of a pair of 5's. This is much more common when there is a progressive jackpot. The jackpot never gets high enough to do that, but when people see a five quarters jackpot of $1,100, they become Royal Flush Guy, and the casino makes more money off them. The extra 100 bucks in the jackpot came from a very small portion of previous bets that did not win a royal flush. Royal Flush Guy makes the casino so much money with his bad play, the casino could simply donate 100 dollars to the jackpot and still make money.
Yesterday I saw the absolute worst VP player ever. She would hold 2 and 9 of the same suit (two to a flush!) instead of a single J. She would hold suited QK and an unsuited J. She would hold 3 to an inside straight (like 357, different suits) instead of an A. She was much, much worse than Royal Flush Guy. She was "Atrocious Video Poker Player Gal".
It's similar to blackjack, where the house edge is 0.6% if you play basic strategy and don't make side bets. But the vast majority of players do make side bets, and most people make basic strategy mistakes, like splitting a pair of 4's when you can't double after split (or splitting a pair of 6's vs dealer 9, and so on). Splitting is fun, right! And then some people are absolutely terrible, like hitting 17 or 18. The dealer will say "are you sure?" and they go with this gut feeling that the next card is really small. I was told that the average blackjack player loses 5% of the bet. Wow, that is significantly more than 0.6%!
So you people can stop fretting over the existence of the very low house edge games of video poker and blackjack. There are so few people who play them with basic strategy, let alone perfect strategy, that it doesn't matter. If everyone played VP or BJ with basic strategy, the casino would be alarmed at the huge drop in profits and rip out those games and install more slot machines.
The fact that those games exist at all is proof that the casino is not going to go out of business, and it's not a non-profit that makes just enough from the slots to pay expenses.
Quote: KevinAA
Many people are what I call "royal flush guy". Royal Flush Guy holds whatever cards are in a royal flush, like suited KA instead of a pair of 5's.
Here's a few interesting hands. Say, for whatever reason, you're playing 9-6-5 Double Bonus. The hand consists of 'JT9' suited and an offsuited small pair.
JT922 hold the 22
JT933 hold the 33
JT944 hold the 44
JT955 hold the JT9
JT966 hold the JT9
JT977 hold the 77
EXCEPT when they are playing 4 hands on 100 play when it's the only machine that can get reasonable coin in (like on quarters) :(
Quote: FinsRuleIs Ameritstar STL still the best casino? I think it’s my favorite non-Vegas casino I’ve been to.
FinsRule casino would be modeled after that.
Overall it's near the top in the state, impressive for 17 years since its last major remodel. But since boyd took it over that might change. And earning status though VP is shot now.
Quote: mcallister3200Lol. I would answer no, but to do so would be to acknowledge that they were the best? Will assume was meant as a joke.
I think he meant the "best casino in Missouri", which I would lean toward "no, but it's close to it". I personally like River City better. Both casinos are examples of well-run casinos though.
Quote: tringlomaneOverall it's near the top in the state, impressive for 17 years since its last major remodel. But since boyd took it over that might change. And earning status though VP is shot now.
I think he meant the "best casino in Missouri", which I would lean toward "no, but it's close to it". I personally like River City better. Both casinos are examples of well-run casinos though.
I did mean best casino in STL area. Ameristar has friendly dealers, good game variety, good food and atmosphere. Checked all the boxes. River City was fine too.
Quote: djatcI think I mentioned this a while back but I've seen 4 to a straight with 1 deuce, ace and a wild on deuces, and 77K or something like that. Gotta love those people
EXCEPT when they are playing 4 hands on 100 play when it's the only machine that can get reasonable coin in (like on quarters) :(
There is one casino here where the only 99% VP is 100 draw poker. I have done 5c denom and 4 hands just because of the pay table. I don't like it, though, because the card pictures and buttons are smaller than single draw VP which gets annoying. I also did 20c denom (max choice) and just 1 hand, effectively doing single draw VP for $1/hand total bet. That's even more annoying because almost all of the screen is full of blank cards. My attempt to win $800 on a royal flush didn't work the one time I tried that.
I forgot to mention another thing that people do that increases the house edge -- betting less than 5 coins. Bet 1,2,3 or 4 kind of randomly. Bet 4 is such a dumb move. To save 25 cents on the bet, you're willing to "lose" $750 (as in, win $750 less) if you get a royal flush? LOL
Quote: KevinAAI forgot to mention another thing that people do that increases the house edge -- betting less than 5 coins. Bet 1,2,3 or 4 kind of randomly. Bet 4 is such a dumb move. To save 25 cents on the bet, you're willing to "lose" $750 (as in, win $750 less) if you get a royal flush? LOL
A lot of people will bet 4 at bars because the bartender will tell them it's a minimum $1 bet to get a comp drink and they don't know any better. Lol
