whats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf? (edit: nevermind.. im thinking A2345)Quote:TomGThe obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)

and since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:

if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?

that is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.Quote:100xOddsand since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:

if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?

you are trying to say you should flip a coin 2500 times

and you should get 1250 Heads, if not, where is the problem?

A video poker session of 2500 hands is meaningless

one can easily use a program and calculate ending intervals of X rounds played

that is about it

those that live for the average die from the average, because it just does not work out that way.

to answer your title Question

depends on the game and the strategy.Quote:vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?

This game has different 4oak payouts with no kickers

I did not double-check the math on this

took 2 programs to be correct as they agreed

Hand | Pay | %Probability | Occurs Every | % Return |
---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 4000 | 0.002 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 |

Straight Flush | 250 | 0.011 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 |

4 Aces | 800 | 0.022 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 0.052 | 1908.2 | 4.19 |

4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 0.16 | 623.51 | 8.02 |

Full House | 45 | 1.063 | 94.08 | 9.57 |

Flush | 35 | 1.522 | 65.69 | 10.66 |

Straight | 25 | 1.502 | 66.58 | 7.51 |

3 of a KIND | 15 | 7.287 | 13.72 | 21.86 |

2 Pair | 5 | 11.893 | 8.41 | 11.89 |

Jacks or Better | 5 | 19.674 | 5.08 | 19.67 |

No Win | 0 | 56.811 | 1.76 | 0 |

Quote:100xOddswhats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf?

If you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!

Quote:FinsRuleIf you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!

lol.. I'm thinking A2345 as in the Ace being first

ok, then I'm short 1/2 a quad in my 2400 hands.Quote:7crapsthat is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.

2500 hands should avg:

4 regular, 1 baby = ($250 x 4) + $400 = $1400

in my 2400 hands, I got 2 regular and 2 baby = (2 x 250) + (2 x 400) = $1300

1400-1300 = $100

so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined

$12k coin-in x 5.75% = $690 + $100 = $790

getting a little closer to the $1.1k I lost.

I guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses

Quote:vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?

No 100X Odds is more wrong. The odds of any quad varies by game a bit. But it's a little better than in 1 in 420 overall for a game like Double Bonus. It's 1 in 600 number or so is just for 5s-Ks quads. So he is down 2 of those quads (500 coins). Up about 3/4s of a baby (300 coins), but down about one half of four Aces (400 coins). Also he has about 5% chance at a royal (200 coins) and 25% chance at a straight flush (62 coins) by now. And the house edge over this amount of play (107 coins). Adding this all up, it's definitely possible to lose 1100 coins in 2400 hands. 500 - 300 + 400 + 200 + 62 + 107 = 969 coins lost. The rest of the difference can be easily from lack of full houses, flushes, etc.

you really need to record your session of play and/or track all hand outcomes.Quote:100xOddsok,

why guess about it?

Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 2400 | avg # |
---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.04996362 |

Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.271570629 |

4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.52551484 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 1.257729798 |

4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 3.849176437 |

Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 25.51020408 |

Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 36.53524128 |

Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 36.04686092 |

3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 174.9271137 |

2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 285.3745541 |

Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 472.4409449 |

No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 1363.636364 |

over 2400 rounds of play, your averages will be between integers. what do you do with those?

you can not hit 25.5 full houses.

you are down because

1 in 6 sessions, on average, will end $1100 or more as a loss

and so far you have 1 session down that much.

the math also says you could have 2 out of 6 sessions down at least that much.

only about 71% chance you lose at least $1100

0 or 1 time.

28.6% you lose that much or more at least 2 times.

====================================

here is an example with NO math applied

played 100 hands

lost a whopping $205 (same game/denom as OP)

Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 |

Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 |

4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 |

4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 |

Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 |

Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 |

Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 |

3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 |

2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 |

Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 |

No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 |

total | . | . | . | . | 100 |

conclusion:

well, just like flipping a fair coin 100 times. I did not get exactly 50 heads so I will flip 2300 more times

and that should give a higher probability to end up with exactly 1200 Heads.