TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2117
December 16th, 2018 at 6:39:13 PM permalink
The obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 516
  • Posts: 3060
December 16th, 2018 at 6:59:17 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

The obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)

whats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf? (edit: nevermind.. im thinking A2345)

and since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 17, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
December 16th, 2018 at 7:31:53 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

and since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?

that is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.

you are trying to say you should flip a coin 2500 times
and you should get 1250 Heads, if not, where is the problem?

A video poker session of 2500 hands is meaningless

one can easily use a program and calculate ending intervals of X rounds played
that is about it
those that live for the average die from the average, because it just does not work out that way.

to answer your title Question
variance
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 16, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 475
December 16th, 2018 at 7:39:09 PM permalink
I always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
December 16th, 2018 at 8:09:10 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

I always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?

depends on the game and the strategy.
This game has different 4oak payouts with no kickers
I did not double-check the math on this
took 2 programs to be correct as they agreed
HandPay%ProbabilityOccurs Every% Return
Royal Flush40000.00248,034.951.67
Straight Flush2500.0118,837.480.57
4 Aces8000.0224,566.953.5
4 2s,3s,4s4000.0521908.24.19
4 5s thru Ks2500.16623.518.02
Full House451.06394.089.57
Flush351.52265.6910.66
Straight251.50266.587.51
3 of a KIND157.28713.7221.86
2 Pair511.8938.4111.89
Jacks or Better519.6745.0819.67
No Win056.8111.760
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 3693
December 16th, 2018 at 8:52:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

whats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf?



If you donít know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 516
  • Posts: 3060
December 17th, 2018 at 5:23:15 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If you donít know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!


lol.. I'm thinking A2345 as in the Ace being first
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 516
  • Posts: 3060
December 17th, 2018 at 5:40:41 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

that is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.

ok, then I'm short 1/2 a quad in my 2400 hands.

2500 hands should avg:
4 regular, 1 baby = ($250 x 4) + $400 = $1400

in my 2400 hands, I got 2 regular and 2 baby = (2 x 250) + (2 x 400) = $1300
1400-1300 = $100

so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined
$12k coin-in x 5.75% = $690 + $100 = $790

getting a little closer to the $1.1k I lost.

I guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6267
December 17th, 2018 at 8:11:00 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

I always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?



No 100X Odds is more wrong. The odds of any quad varies by game a bit. But it's a little better than in 1 in 420 overall for a game like Double Bonus. It's 1 in 600 number or so is just for 5s-Ks quads. So he is down 2 of those quads (500 coins). Up about 3/4s of a baby (300 coins), but down about one half of four Aces (400 coins). Also he has about 5% chance at a royal (200 coins) and 25% chance at a straight flush (62 coins) by now. And the house edge over this amount of play (107 coins). Adding this all up, it's definitely possible to lose 1100 coins in 2400 hands. 500 - 300 + 400 + 200 + 62 + 107 = 969 coins lost. The rest of the difference can be easily from lack of full houses, flushes, etc.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
December 17th, 2018 at 9:11:57 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

ok,

you really need to record your session of play and/or track all hand outcomes.
why guess about it?

HandOccurs Every% Return2400avg #
Royal Flush48,034.951.672.08182E-050.04996362
Straight Flush8,837.480.570.0001131540.271570629
4 Aces4,566.953.50.0002189650.52551484
4 2s,3s,4s1908.24.190.0005240541.257729798
4 5s thru Ks623.518.020.0016038243.849176437
Full House94.089.570.01062925225.51020408
Flush65.6910.660.01522301736.53524128
Straight66.587.510.01501952536.04686092
3 of a KIND13.7221.860.072886297174.9271137
2 Pair8.4111.890.118906064285.3745541
Jacks or Better5.0819.670.196850394472.4409449
No Win1.7600.5681818181363.636364

over 2400 rounds of play, your averages will be between integers. what do you do with those?
you can not hit 25.5 full houses.

you are down because
1 in 6 sessions, on average, will end $1100 or more as a loss
and so far you have 1 session down that much.

the math also says you could have 2 out of 6 sessions down at least that much.
only about 71% chance you lose at least $1100
0 or 1 time.
28.6% you lose that much or more at least 2 times.
====================================
here is an example with NO math applied
played 100 hands
lost a whopping $205 (same game/denom as OP)
HandOccurs Every% Return100expected numberactual
Royal Flush48,034.951.672.08182E-050.0020818180
Straight Flush8,837.480.570.0001131540.0113154430
4 Aces4,566.953.50.0002189650.0218964520
4 2s,3s,4s1908.24.190.0005240540.0524054080
4 5s thru Ks623.518.020.0016038240.1603823520
Full House94.089.570.0106292521.062925170
Flush65.6910.660.0152230171.522301721
Straight66.587.510.0150195251.5019525381
3 of a KIND13.7221.860.0728862977.2886297384
2 Pair8.4111.890.11890606411.8906064210
Jacks or Better5.0819.670.19685039419.6850393725
No Win1.7600.56818181856.8181818259
total....100


conclusion:
well, just like flipping a fair coin 100 times. I did not get exactly 50 heads so I will flip 2300 more times
and that should give a higher probability to end up with exactly 1200 Heads.
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

  • Jump to: