Progressive EV with basic strategy
If I'm playing 9/6 JOB with computer perfect strategy on a game that returns 4880 coins for the royal, I know if I'm not adjusting strategy, I would not achieve the 100% return, but it would be more than 99.54%. How do you calculate what you're giving up/still attaining? It would be nice to know the theoretical return you are playing for, without the increased volatility of the royal adjusted strategy.
I would like to be able to just plug in a royal amount and calculate return without strategy changes (whether it's at 4880 coins, 6000 coins, or whatever) if possible. I have both WinPoker and Video Poker for Winners, but I can't figure out how to do it. I imagine there's a relatively simple way and I feel a little stupid for asking, but I'm stumped.
I'd definitely think you could do that in WP or VPfW, but another outlet to research through might be the wizards VP analyzer:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/
Here you can pop in different values and get EV/return, but to be honest I'm not 100% sure on whether or not this assumes a change in strategy or not. Someone more familiar with the analyzer might need to chime in on that one (JB/Wiz).
Lastly, there is also a page for a strategy engine for VP, based on the return table. So you could look at the strategy and see how much changes. given the extra 880 coins. I'd assume at only 880 coins (nothing crazy like double royal, etc) not a TON would change. You could note those changes and then run them through the hand analyzer to see the difference in EV per hand to know that if you played at 4880 with just regular perfect strategy, how much it would cost you. My bet is NOT A LOT, but as you said, to get an 'exact' number you'd need to run it in the software/etc I'd imagine.
https://wizardofodds.com/calculators/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/
Quote: KatchIs there a way to calculate the return/EV of a progressive game while using basic strategy?
If I'm playing 9/6 JOB with computer perfect strategy on a game that returns 4880 coins for the royal, I know if I'm not adjusting strategy, I would not achieve the 100% return, but it would be more than 99.54%. How do you calculate what you're giving up/still attaining? It would be nice to know the theoretical return you are playing for, without the increased volatility of the royal adjusted strategy.
I would like to be able to just plug in a royal amount and calculate return without strategy changes (whether it's at 4880 coins, 6000 coins, or whatever) if possible. I have both WinPoker and Video Poker for Winners, but I can't figure out how to do it. I imagine there's a relatively simple way and I feel a little stupid for asking, but I'm stumped.
I'm going to try.
At 4000 you'll hit a royal in 40390 hands. At 4880 it'll take 35939 hands. That's easy enough to plug in and find out.
So at regular strategy, you'll put in 4451 more hands, times $5 is 22255 action. Divide 880 into 22255 and you get .0395. Add that to 99.54 and you get 99.5795.
Am I close?
Adjusted strategy results in 100.00 played perfect, and 99.5795 with no strategy adjustments.
I dunno, I'm kinda just guessing. Someone tell me if I'm close or totally wrong.
I think it goes without saying that if you have 2 full pay machines next to each other and one is progressive (whether royal only or royal/quads/SF), with all else being equal, you should always play the progressive even without strategy changes because there is additional EV...but how much?
I feel like there should be an easy way to calculate these returns using basic strategy with the software, especially considering how easily the software can calculate/generate accurate return AND the adaptive strategy. What I'm looking for seems like an easier ask of the software, but maybe none of it is configured properly to do this?
Quote: DRichA basic rule I use is that every 500 coins the Royal Flush is over 4000 represents about 1/4 of a percent. So if it gets to 6000 coins it is 1% greater than the basic return using basic strategy. It is not perfect but close enough for me.
But is that what he's asking, though? I thought he was asking the cost of playing a progressive with no strategy adjustments.
Quote: bobbartopBut is that what he's asking, though? I thought he was asking the cost of playing a progressive with no strategy adjustments.
This doesn't help anyone who doesn't have Wolf, but I just found a feature on my copy of Wolf that allows you to "tweek" a strategy by importing another game's strategy. It worked pretty good and was a snap to do. DB 100.1674 to 99.62 using JoB strategy.
Quote: bobbartopThis doesn't help anyone who doesn't have Wolf, but I just found a feature on my copy of Wolf that allows you to "tweek" a strategy by importing another game's strategy. It worked pretty good and was a snap to do. DB 100.1674 to 99.62 using JoB strategy.
Which seems to make whatever I was attempting to do with the original 4880 to 4000 problem totally wrong. In my behalf, I said I was guessing and didn't know wtf I was talking about.
So I just took Wolf and the JoB-4880 game, (100.00) and imported the JoB-4000 game and it shows a result of 99.9796. I think that answers the original poster's original question.
I would not have guessed it was that close. It'll be interesting to see how much the EV diverges, the higher the progressive. Once you're up closer to 6000 coins where you'd start dumping big pairs over 3RFL, I'd imagine the difference is quite a bit more.
Quote: KatchVery interesting, thanks. I'll have to see if WP or VPFW has that functionality, I haven't seen it though.
I would not have guessed it was that close. It'll be interesting to see how much the EV diverges, the higher the progressive. Once you're up closer to 6000 coins where you'd start dumping big pairs over 3RFL, I'd imagine the difference is quite a bit more.
I looked at WP and VPfW, and I couldn't find anything.
Anyway, if you want to run one or more by me, shoot 'em over. No problem for me.
Of course, it's not exactly 2% for the RF, but very close. You can find it on WOO game calculator.
Quote: RSEvery 4000 coins pays ~2% in the return in 9/6 JOB. Like DRich said, just add the difference to the base return. If it's at 8000 coins for a RF, then do 99.54% + 2% = 101.54%.
Of course, it's not exactly 2% for the RF, but very close. You can find it on WOO game calculator.
Ok, I see. You're right, and DRich is right. I apologize. Be patient with with me.
Quote: bobbartopI looked at WP and VPfW, and I couldn't find anything.
Anyway, if you want to run one or more by me, shoot 'em over. No problem for me.
Edit: Disregard the post, since RS made up for my waning math skills, but I do appreciate the offer.
Quote: KatchThe easiest thing would be to buy the Wolf software so I wouldn't have to bother bobbartop for the kind offer, and just run scenarios on my own, but my understanding is that it is no longer available and no other software can do exactly what I am looking for. If I am wrong, please let me know!
This is actually very simple to do.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-74-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-6-d-9-d-25-d-50-d-800/
That gives you probabilities and frequencies of each hand, using 9/6 JOB strategy.
Put the hit frequencies into a column in Excel. IE:
40,390.55
9,148.37
423.27
etc...
Next to those, put the new paytable. IE:
800
50
29
8
6
4
3
2
1
0
Then do payout divided by frequency in the next column, so you have this:
40390.55 | 800 | 800/40390.55
9148.37 | 50 | 50/9148.37
423.27 | 29 | 29/423.27
etc.
The third column is the % return for that specific hand.
Sum the third column and you'll end up with your return.
I say it is easy in Video Poker for WinnersQuote: KatchIs there a way to calculate the return/EV of a progressive game while using basic strategy? I have both WinPoker and Video Poker for Winners, but I can't figure out how to do it.
very easy, even the help section shows how...
start with the basic game job 9/6
click on Options then change paytable (I already did that and renamed it)
change the royal to your new value and click OK
now go to Games and User Defined (all the way to the bottom and find the game you just named and click it then select to open the game)
it does some work right then
under Analyze you have both Game and Strategy
feel free to study them
software can do many things if you learn how
hope I understood your question
Sally
looking close I agree with youQuote: KatchThanks, Sally, I appreciate the effort (the screenshots are great!), but it looks like that is still showing the EV with adjusted play, not the EV of the adjusted paytable when played with no strategy adjustments...?
I saw the other value and thought that is what you were after.
I getQuote: KatchI believe it would be closer to 99.97% unless I am missing something.
0.999796499
in my Excel returns with just the change for the Royal using the WoO data
(99.98% - different from your 99.97% - since we are splitting hairs)
way different from the .9999893 the strategy game play return from VP for Winners
Sally
Quote: RSThis is actually very simple to do.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-74-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-6-d-9-d-25-d-50-d-800/
That gives you probabilities and frequencies of each hand, using 9/6 JOB strategy.
Put the hit frequencies into a column in Excel. IE:
40,390.55
9,148.37
423.27
etc...
Next to those, put the new paytable. IE:
800
50
29
8
6
4
3
2
1
0
Then do payout divided by frequency in the next column, so you have this:
40390.55 | 800 | 800/40390.55
9148.37 | 50 | 50/9148.37
423.27 | 29 | 29/423.27
etc.
The third column is the % return for that specific hand.
Sum the third column and you'll end up with your return.
Correct, but here is a quicker way (since only one number is changing):
4880 coins is 976 times bet (i.e. 4880/4000*800). This is an additional 176 coins.
The WoO output has a lot of roundoff error for the probability of winning a royal flush (0.000025 has only two significant digits).
To fix that, take RF combinations (493,512,264) divided by total combinations (19,933,230,517,200), and you get 0.0000247582680375947.
Multiply probability of winning RF by 176 extra coins, and you get the extra EV.
0.0000247582680375947 * 176 = 0.004357455....
Add to the base EV of 0.995439 and you get 0.999796.
Hmmmm..... :)
Quote: KevinAACorrect, but here is a quicker way (since only one number is changing):
4880 coins is 976 times bet (i.e. 4880/4000*800). This is an additional 176 coins.
The WoO output has a lot of roundoff error for the probability of winning a royal flush (0.000025 has only two significant digits).
To fix that, take RF combinations (493,512,264) divided by total combinations (19,933,230,517,200), and you get 0.0000247582680375947.
Multiply probability of winning RF by 176 extra coins, and you get the extra EV.
0.0000247582680375947 * 176 = 0.004357455....
Add to the base EV of 0.995439 and you get 0.999796.
His now edited post was asking something about playing a game with 29 pays for 4oak, 8 pays FH, 6 pays flush, and what the return would be if he used 9/6 strategy on that game.
Btw—just because only one number on the input (paytable) changes, doesn’t mean that’s true for the output (strategy / hit frequencies). Imagine changing the RF from 4,000 to 40,000.
Quote: RSBtw—just because only one number on the input (paytable) changes, doesn’t mean that’s true for the output (strategy / hit frequencies). Imagine changing the RF from 4,000 to 40,000.
If you re-calculate the optimal strategy, yes of course. But the question was what is the return if you do not change your strategy (only the prize amount).
The same strategy will result in the same probability of winning a royal flush (or any other prize). For example, if you are dealt 35JQK and hold JQK same suit, the probability of winning a royal flush is 1 in (47 choose 2), or 1 in 1081. It does not matter whether the prize is 4000 coins, 40,000 coins, or 12 coins. The probability of drawing a ten and A of the same suit is exactly the same, 1 in 1081.
Quote: RSIt’s hard to figure out what was said here because the post was edited and I don’t remember what the 4880 or whatever was about (don’t really care either).
Sorry, I didn't mean for the edit to cause issues, I thought it complicated things. I appreciated your response and thought it answered what I was looking for which is a way to change payables and see the difference in EV without making strategy changes.
So, thanks again for the responses and I apologise for any irritations.
Others may chime in with their back of the napkin adjustments for things like this on the fly, but it sounds like you want to be accurate, and as they say, proper prep prevents poor performance.
Also keep in mind that adjusting strategy for the payout changes, increases variance as well.
