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jsm
jsm
Joined: May 29, 2016
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:01:43 PM permalink
Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:14:01 PM permalink
Life happened.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.


I had a session last year where I put in a $415.00 ticket on the same game/denomination and lost it all within an hour!

On the flip side, I've had royals within 9 hands of each other.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:24:08 PM permalink
Variance.

Nothing ‘unusual’ happened unless you are down more than 2 standard deviations.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:24:26 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.


one word: variance

I played $2 9/6 JoB, 5000 hands in one session.
was up +$1000 without hitting a royal
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
jsm
jsm
Joined: May 29, 2016
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:31:54 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Variance.

Nothing ‘unusual’ happened unless you are down more than 2 standard deviations.



And I really don't know how many standard deviations that session loss was; I am quite curious. Additionally, there's the 68-95-99.7 crowd and the 1 - 1/s^2 (Chebyshev) crowd. The distribution of video-poker hands is decidedly non-normal, which makes me think the Chebyshev crowd is more relevant here.

In any case, I understand JoB carries variance (of 19.5 bets squared). However, based on my 300,000-plus hands of play, this loss seems anomalous--only x% of the time among 2,540-hand sessions. If someone can help estimate the "x," that would be very helpful.

And for what it's worth, I am 6,000 coins down ($1,500) over 20,500 hands of the same game with good strategy. Ouch, of course. But how much "ouch"? 1% unlikely? 0.1% unlikely? `Tis the question.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
jsm
April 30th, 2018 at 12:40:46 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.

about 1 in 1,156
0.086527%

btw, your session does not have a normal distribution
I used 2 programs to calculate this and they both agree
on the result


better luck next time!
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Apr 30, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:43:58 PM permalink
Why would VP not have a normal distribution?
jsm
jsm
Joined: May 29, 2016
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:45:38 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

about 1 in 1,156
0.086527%

btw, your session does not have a normal distribution
I used 2 programs to calculate this and they both agree
on the result

better luck next time!
Sally



Thank you. That is too bad and makes me wonder. Could you, if you would, answer the same question with a loss of 1,202 units over 20,500 hands?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:51:38 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Why would VP not have a normal distribution?

not enough hands played is the common reason. Most games require over 100k hands to look normal, at least from my studies

that is why having a program calculate for you (like VP for Windows)
makes you feel so much better
no guessing and not waiting for simulations to return an estimate

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart

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