Pickem Post

Just a coincidence, I was going to post this thought about Pickem and I see someone else started a Pickem thread a couple days ago. But I'm going to continue and post mine separately anyway.

I've been doing some sims. A lot, but maybe not enough. I tweeked one line in the Strategy and have gained some interesting results so far.

Sure, Pickem is great, low variance, good return even without the royal included, etc. But as you may know, if you do as I do, run sims of a million hands a pop, once in awhile it's going to throw in a clunker, despite the low variance.

Here is a section of the Strategy Chart where I made my tweek:

FL3 - 3hi
ST3-0 3hi
FL3 - 2hi
Low Pair 2s-8s
SF3-2 no hi

Pencils in at 99.9531.

So, I took the SF3-2 no hi, and tweeked it up and added it in with all the other SFs. New return is 99.9512. Essentially, the only real change, I think, is that it now draws to the SF when it would otherwise draw to a low pair. I've run a hundred sims, at a million hands a pop. A fair size sample.

With my little experiment so far, not near as many "clunkers". Not sure I understand why. No, I am sure, that I don't understand why.

Is it possible I haven't run enough? What am I missing?