Random Multipliers
November 4th, 2017 at 5:52:28 AM
permalink
Hi,
Let's say a game randomly assigns multipliers between 2x and 12x if the dealt hand is a winning hand and that multipler has a residual effect on future hands. I think a game like this would be clearly vulture -able.
The problem is that the game rules don't say what the average multiplier is in help screens like the pages the wiz has (reference super times pay for example).
Really, even if I knew the average multiplier, that doesn't get me very far... What I really need to know is what the average residual effect is (future multipliers) when a multiplier already exists.
So I'm thinking that I could just play the game and record what happens.
Questions:
1. How many observations would I have to record to get x% confident that my analysis matches the par value of the multipliers?
2. Is there a better way to do this analysis?
3. If I do this analysis for one game (JoB 5 play for example) what do you think the risk is of the average being different for a different game or number of plays?
Fyi - I'm hesitant to say the name of the game, but I suspect a number of you will know what I'm talking about.
Thanks in advance for any feedback.
Let's say a game randomly assigns multipliers between 2x and 12x if the dealt hand is a winning hand and that multipler has a residual effect on future hands. I think a game like this would be clearly vulture -able.
The problem is that the game rules don't say what the average multiplier is in help screens like the pages the wiz has (reference super times pay for example).
Really, even if I knew the average multiplier, that doesn't get me very far... What I really need to know is what the average residual effect is (future multipliers) when a multiplier already exists.
So I'm thinking that I could just play the game and record what happens.
Questions:
1. How many observations would I have to record to get x% confident that my analysis matches the par value of the multipliers?
2. Is there a better way to do this analysis?
3. If I do this analysis for one game (JoB 5 play for example) what do you think the risk is of the average being different for a different game or number of plays?
Fyi - I'm hesitant to say the name of the game, but I suspect a number of you will know what I'm talking about.
Thanks in advance for any feedback.
November 14th, 2017 at 9:13:56 AM
permalink
If we're thinking of the same game, I believe the rule of thumb is just to play when the average multiplier is greater than 2x for the number of hands you will be playing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 14th, 2017 at 9:44:43 AM
permalink
I'm pretty sure we are talking about two different games.
I'm talking about a game that is 8 coins per hand. I suspect you are talking about a 10 coin per hand game.
Anyway, I've been tracking some data and I think I have it all figured out.
I wish there was a feature where I could close a thread for comments. I appreciate your response.
I'm talking about a game that is 8 coins per hand. I suspect you are talking about a 10 coin per hand game.
Anyway, I've been tracking some data and I think I have it all figured out.
I wish there was a feature where I could close a thread for comments. I appreciate your response.
November 14th, 2017 at 10:51:24 AM
permalink
Quote: prozemaI'm pretty sure we are talking about two different games.
I'm talking about a game that is 8 coins per hand. I suspect you are talking about a 10 coin per hand game.
Anyway, I've been tracking some data and I think I have it all figured out.
I wish there was a feature where I could close a thread for comments. I appreciate your response.
Since we are the only two to speak in this thread, I don't believe anybody would be adversely impacted by me locking it.
LOCKED
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
