long odds? dealt trips once in 1000 deals.

Over on videopoker.com, a poster claimed to have only been dealt a three of a kind (not counting dealt full houses or quads here) once in about 1000 hands. He said this was on Extra Draw Frenzy. Dealt trips should be 46.3:1. Odds on this happening?

http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=8909

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Over on videopoker.com, a poster claimed to have only been dealt a three of a kind (not counting dealt full houses or quads here) once in about 1000 hands. He said this was on Extra Draw Frenzy. Dealt trips should be 46.3:1. Odds on this happening?

http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=8909

Binomial Distribution should work for this, let's use VassarStats:

The event has a probability of 0.02113271344, and we want that event to happen once in 1,000 attempts:

http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html

Here is the probability of either zero or one:

1.1959e-8 = 0.000000011959 = 1/0.000000011959 = 1 in 83,619,031.7

Of course, for that poster to say, 'Over 1,000,' is highly unspecific. If it's a contest, that should be easy to keep track of, ten one-hundred hand sessions...but why doesn't this person have an exact number? It doesn't smell like BS, but it does smell like an exaggeration and perhaps selective memory.

On the other hand, it almost has to happen to someone sometime.

Quote: Mission146

On the other hand, it almost has to happen to someone sometime.

Just like 18 yos in a row? :-)



To respond to the first post you made, thanks. Although I may be good at learning AP strategy, I'm poor at figuring out some of this math. I've forgotten most of the crap I learned in school :-)~

No worries, most things that are simple, 'Yes or No,' propositions can be closely approximated (and sometimes solved exactly) with a binomial distribution.

I've noticed people over their tend to count their results on multi hand games as if they were single hands. They say they played 10,000 hands when really they played 1,000 main hands and 9,000 hands based on the first one.

That's another good point, but I would certainly like to hope this person wasn't doing that since he/she was referring specifically to, "Dealt hands." Regardless of whether the game is single-play, three-play, five-play, ten-play, fifty-play or one-hundred play, a dealt hand is one dealt hand. The only exception I can think of is those games where a player is dealt multiple starting hands from which to choose, but Extra Draw Frenzy is not that.

This is way more likely than the most outlandish claim he's ever made on the forum. He once claimed he lost about 75% of all VP hands over 300,000 hands. I did the math on the odds as Vman96. I even typed it out in non-scientific notation so those can see how crazy it looks.

http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=5447&PID=56996#56996

FORTUNATELY, he has scaled back on claims like this for now. But another member on the forum who I actually met often attacks and criticizes this guy usually without a good reason. And this particular member claims on the forum he wins in about 80% of his sessions. When I met him...I watched him play 96.2% Bonus Deuces at Hollywood STL at $12.50 a whack. I would love to know his "winning secret" because it sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

You need good vision to play video poker. Maybe he needs a new prescription, reading glasses, or another Dr. like a neurologist. Is there any neurological condition that would cause a person to misinterpret trips? Idk possible. The brain can be mysterious, totally breaking down without a person even knowing.

Quote: Mission146

Binomial Distribution should work for this...

Yes, and it gives the exact answer, 1 in ( 4077 / 92077 ) * ( 4165 / 4077 )^1000, which is very close to your number.

Quote: tringlomane

This is way more likely than the most outlandish claim he's ever made on the forum. He once claimed he lost about 75% of all VP hands over 300,000 hands. I did the math on the odds as Vman96. I even typed it out in non-scientific notation so those can see how crazy it looks.

http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=5447&PID=56996#56996

FORTUNATELY, he has scaled back on claims like this for now. But another member on the forum who I actually met often attacks and criticizes this guy usually without a good reason. And this particular member claims on the forum he wins in about 80% of his sessions. When I met him...I watched him play 96.2% Bonus Deuces at Hollywood STL at $12.50 a whack. I would love to know his "winning secret" because it sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Yeah, we've all had ridiculous runs of wins or losses at some point when it comes to VP and the losing ones always seem worse then they really are. But in that game (EDF), you just cannot "forget" the times your dealt trips, as it activates the Frenzy mode.

I read through that whole thread. What a ridiculous assertion, with nothing to back it up. There is no way he tracked the result of every hand for 300,000 hands.

I think he was using some version of net cash after play divided cash at start of play, or something like that.