Simulation for playing "Go for RF" strategy
January 25th, 2017 at 3:44:49 PM
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OK, the VP tournament I'm considering is at the Cal, with maximum 150 players.
If we assume 200 hands need to be played per session (I still don't have tournament rules and don't know what VP variety), then
150 X 200 = 30,000 hands would be played
If probability is that a RF will come up about every 24,000 hands, then there would be at least 1.25 RFs if basic strategy is used.
Question: can someone run the simulation of playing 30,000 hands using a "go for the Royal Flush" only strategy? That is, disregard regular basic strategy, and only keeping hands with suited cards to a RF?
The Forum entries indicate Double Double Bonus VP is commonly used in tournaments, so let's use that.
I'm guessing it would take many more than 30,000 hands to get a RF. Maybe even 50,000?
Just curious, thanks!
If we assume 200 hands need to be played per session (I still don't have tournament rules and don't know what VP variety), then
150 X 200 = 30,000 hands would be played
If probability is that a RF will come up about every 24,000 hands, then there would be at least 1.25 RFs if basic strategy is used.
Question: can someone run the simulation of playing 30,000 hands using a "go for the Royal Flush" only strategy? That is, disregard regular basic strategy, and only keeping hands with suited cards to a RF?
The Forum entries indicate Double Double Bonus VP is commonly used in tournaments, so let's use that.
I'm guessing it would take many more than 30,000 hands to get a RF. Maybe even 50,000?
Just curious, thanks!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
January 25th, 2017 at 4:13:55 PM
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If you always draw to the royal, the probability is about 1 in 23000 regardless of the paytable (assuming no wilds/jokers). Given that, you have a 50% chance of having seen a royal after about 16,000 hands, but obviously you can go for a very long time without seeing one at all.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
January 25th, 2017 at 6:26:59 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistIf you always draw to the royal, the probability is about 1 in 23000 regardless of the paytable (assuming no wilds/jokers). Given that, you have a 50% chance of having seen a royal after about 16,000 hands, but obviously you can go for a very long time without seeing one at all.
M/E: I don't have the statistical smarts, nor the experience, to argue with you, so I won't. In my novice mind, however, I just guessed the probability of getting a RF with a "go for the RF strategy" (and not following basic strategy) would result In a probability way higher than 1 in 23,000 before a RF surfaced.
Also, I would be throwing away "lots" of quads valued at 250 credits or more, unless I've misunderstood the strategy for playing in a VP tournament. I don't know about figuring that in the probability.
Thanks for your time!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
February 4th, 2017 at 7:18:37 AM
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Just thought I'd mention I just posted a related result in:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/28084-request-advice-about-vp-tournaments/2/#post575872
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/28084-request-advice-about-vp-tournaments/2/#post575872
