So whats the skinny on these Full Pay professionals?
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October 21st, 2009 at 2:39:49 AM
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I tend not to play slot machines of any sort. Perhaps this is the reason I've never fully analyzed them.
I've heard that when first introduced video poker machines were analyzed by the casinos from the viewpoint of someone playing a reasonable poker strategy but a few sharp people made a good deal of money after having developed a strategy focused on getting a Royal Flush rather than playing a sensible poker strategy.
From time to time I encounter articles mentioning retirees who get their entertainment, drinks, meal comps and who average eleven dollars an hour ramming money through video poker machines that have what are referred to as full-pay status.
From the articles that I've skimmed the payout tables can be as high as 100.77 percent but are more likely to be 100.17 percent. Are there really video poker players milking such machines for that slight edge? Are there really video poker players who have played for years and not hit a Royal Flush ever?
I just can't see the casinos as being fools and offering even a slight player advantage.
Perhaps I should sit down sometime and actually do the math rather than being so cavalier as to merely skim some newspaper articles from time to time, but I just wonder what the situation actually is.
I've heard that when first introduced video poker machines were analyzed by the casinos from the viewpoint of someone playing a reasonable poker strategy but a few sharp people made a good deal of money after having developed a strategy focused on getting a Royal Flush rather than playing a sensible poker strategy.
From time to time I encounter articles mentioning retirees who get their entertainment, drinks, meal comps and who average eleven dollars an hour ramming money through video poker machines that have what are referred to as full-pay status.
From the articles that I've skimmed the payout tables can be as high as 100.77 percent but are more likely to be 100.17 percent. Are there really video poker players milking such machines for that slight edge? Are there really video poker players who have played for years and not hit a Royal Flush ever?
I just can't see the casinos as being fools and offering even a slight player advantage.
Perhaps I should sit down sometime and actually do the math rather than being so cavalier as to merely skim some newspaper articles from time to time, but I just wonder what the situation actually is.
October 29th, 2009 at 7:43:00 AM
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Just how much money would you have to plow into a VP machine at a 0.17 percent player edge to make it worthwhile?
How sensitive would this be to such things as player's error or alcohol intake?
I can't imagine the casinos are ignorant of this, so it is either tolerable to them or its not really a drain on them at all.
How sensitive would this be to such things as player's error or alcohol intake?
I can't imagine the casinos are ignorant of this, so it is either tolerable to them or its not really a drain on them at all.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:55:13 AM
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I think the intent of professionals is to exploit an advantage that most players don't have the discipline or time to exploit. A .17% advantage would include all tourists and short-term players who would play badly and win only 80%, let's say, while pro's are winning their 10% because they wait for royals and/or quit while ahead, and the casino is winning 10% on ALL machines. I'm still waiting for my first royal!
November 1st, 2009 at 10:26:53 AM
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In addition to the low house edge or positive edge to the player, other things that enhance a vp player's return are comped rooms, food, beverages, and gifts. Jean Scott (the Frugal Gambler) and her husband Brad have for years suplemented their income by playing vp. Some people who are frequent LV and AC message board posters claim to have played at close to break even over the years. The key to success is to consistently play at perfect strategy for the vp game played. Problem is that most players, even very good players, do not play perfect strategy. Consequently, a vp game that could pay close to 100% likely pays far less than 100%.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:45:05 PM
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Just curious how long you have been playing and still waiting for your first royal?
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:10:47 AM
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You see a lot of retirees playing full pay deuces wild, which is a positive expectation game. Whether or not they are professionals is a matter of definition.
You also see a small number of young people who play video poker at lightning speed. Some of these may indeed be professional VP players. It seems like a horrible way to make a living. The only way to make a decent wage at it is to play full pay games very accurately and very fast. Some casinos fight this by setting their full pay games to play at such a slow pace that it is not worth the effort for professionals to play there. You will not find positive expectation games at over a quarter for the same reason, although "full pay" Jacks or Better is common at high dollars.
I have played well in excess of 100,000 hands of video poker in Las Vegas and other places and have yet to hit a royal flush. On my practice machine at home, I hit royals at the expected rate.
You also see a small number of young people who play video poker at lightning speed. Some of these may indeed be professional VP players. It seems like a horrible way to make a living. The only way to make a decent wage at it is to play full pay games very accurately and very fast. Some casinos fight this by setting their full pay games to play at such a slow pace that it is not worth the effort for professionals to play there. You will not find positive expectation games at over a quarter for the same reason, although "full pay" Jacks or Better is common at high dollars.
I have played well in excess of 100,000 hands of video poker in Las Vegas and other places and have yet to hit a royal flush. On my practice machine at home, I hit royals at the expected rate.
November 5th, 2009 at 5:10:56 PM
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On September 3rd wife and I were in vegas at casino royale. I've been playing a lot of video poker as I have been learning. At CR, thier fun books give you $25 if you hit 4 of kind, I hit mine earlier in week so I had the wife sit with $20 in and try to get hers. After about 5 minutes, on a first "pull" she gets a royal flush, diamonds. $1,000. She has played maybe 2-3 times because she doesn't care for the game. Great way to end the week there as we were leaving the next day. Next day tried again to get the 4 of a kind and $25, again $20 in, got the 4 of a kind, but as it turned out, the coupon for the $25 for 4 of kind expired about 4 days before, so the night before when I was trying to get her the 4 of kind, it wouldn't have worked either - got the royal though!
November 6th, 2009 at 4:08:46 AM
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Advantage VP players (so called professionals) are a cult. There has been so much misinformation out there that many folks try to play to a positive expectation, and as we all know those casinos didn't get there by losing money.
I agree there may be a very small percentage that actually stay pretty close to even, but I'm still skeptical about someone who claims to actually make a decent living at it.
You would have to play all day every day for months on end, and I've got better things to do with my time than sit in a smoky casino day in and day out to make less than minimum wage and get a free tote bag or buffet.
The vast majority lose, and some lose a staggering amount of money. I've done extended research on this phenomenon.
With some quick research anyone can google the stats and it takes over 42,000 hands to achieve a royal flush, however due to the "Variance" or shifts in paybacks and mistakes one may conceivably play well over 100,000 hands and never hit a royal flush.
At a buck and a quarter a hand, well, anyone with a third grade education can cipher that one.
And all this for what? To get a $1000 dollar royal flush?
The cost to play Jacks Or Better at about a 99.5% return (assuming you can find a 9/6 machine, see VPfree2) is about $250 bucks to play the 40,200 hands or so to maybe hit it, but if you don't it'll cost ya around $1,250 bucks just to play, assuming PERFECT PLAY with NO mistakes, which is damn near impossible.
There are a lot of VP gurus out there that do make a handsome living selling their systems and books to suckers, and there seems to be no shortage of those in Las Vegas.
I can name names but I'll refrain, just know that there are some charlatans out there that will lead you down a path to ruin, especially if you are the addictive personality type, but most of them wouldn't admit it if they were, and some may not even know that the are.
I'm very familiar with addictions and vices, hell I have a couple myself, and my advice is don't buy into the VP myth.
A wise man once said " Gambling is a hard way to make an easy living ".
I agree there may be a very small percentage that actually stay pretty close to even, but I'm still skeptical about someone who claims to actually make a decent living at it.
You would have to play all day every day for months on end, and I've got better things to do with my time than sit in a smoky casino day in and day out to make less than minimum wage and get a free tote bag or buffet.
The vast majority lose, and some lose a staggering amount of money. I've done extended research on this phenomenon.
With some quick research anyone can google the stats and it takes over 42,000 hands to achieve a royal flush, however due to the "Variance" or shifts in paybacks and mistakes one may conceivably play well over 100,000 hands and never hit a royal flush.
At a buck and a quarter a hand, well, anyone with a third grade education can cipher that one.
And all this for what? To get a $1000 dollar royal flush?
The cost to play Jacks Or Better at about a 99.5% return (assuming you can find a 9/6 machine, see VPfree2) is about $250 bucks to play the 40,200 hands or so to maybe hit it, but if you don't it'll cost ya around $1,250 bucks just to play, assuming PERFECT PLAY with NO mistakes, which is damn near impossible.
There are a lot of VP gurus out there that do make a handsome living selling their systems and books to suckers, and there seems to be no shortage of those in Las Vegas.
I can name names but I'll refrain, just know that there are some charlatans out there that will lead you down a path to ruin, especially if you are the addictive personality type, but most of them wouldn't admit it if they were, and some may not even know that the are.
I'm very familiar with addictions and vices, hell I have a couple myself, and my advice is don't buy into the VP myth.
A wise man once said " Gambling is a hard way to make an easy living ".
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November 6th, 2009 at 12:53:05 PM
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I would think that boredom, fatigue, alcohol, frustration, etc. would all detract from attention to basic strategy. Ofcours its nice to start from 100.77 percent and work your way down from there, but it would be a hard life to be glued to a Video Poker machine. I know that at BlackJack I can never keep focused on Basic Strategy. Oh, I try to but ... alcohol, lovely ladies, chatter, distracting music, ... it all erodes my focus.Quote: g25r5chipsProblem is that most players, even very good players, do not play perfect strategy. Consequently, a vp game that could pay close to 100% likely pays far less than 100%.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:54:53 PM
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Investigate the Yahoo group, VPFree. It will
answer all these questions fully.
The short answer is this: Yes, people have made money on VP.
People continue to make money on VP. Its not quite as simple
as your description, but you have the basic idea.
answer all these questions fully.
The short answer is this: Yes, people have made money on VP.
People continue to make money on VP. Its not quite as simple
as your description, but you have the basic idea.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:38:00 AM
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I think the true VP professionals fully play for the comps advantage to make their money. It is probably not much of a living.
Up where I live (Canada), they had full pay Pick-Em machines (99.9531%) at the .50 demonination. The cash back at the time on the comps was $.10 / $20 played or 0.5% for a net return of 100.4531%. So, for every $2.50 played, you could expect $.0113275. And for Pick-em, there's only 31 different hand combinations, very easy to print on a small sheet of paper to make decisions. Once memorized, you are choosing one of two hands to keep, so it is very possible to work very quickly, I would say you could easily play 20 hands per minute. So at 1,200 hands / hour, you would be making .0113275 x 1200 or $13.59 / hour... tax free. So I became unemployed or retired, I would supplement my $450/week EI income with some video poker and I would seek out the bonus promotion days.
The problem once again is bankroll as you only hit a royal ($3,000) every 351,818 hands and a four of a kind ($300) every 2,361 hands. You would need to fund yourself appropriately and be disciplined.
Of course, the casino took out the machines and reduced the comp on all video poker to $.10 / $30 or $40 played.
Up where I live (Canada), they had full pay Pick-Em machines (99.9531%) at the .50 demonination. The cash back at the time on the comps was $.10 / $20 played or 0.5% for a net return of 100.4531%. So, for every $2.50 played, you could expect $.0113275. And for Pick-em, there's only 31 different hand combinations, very easy to print on a small sheet of paper to make decisions. Once memorized, you are choosing one of two hands to keep, so it is very possible to work very quickly, I would say you could easily play 20 hands per minute. So at 1,200 hands / hour, you would be making .0113275 x 1200 or $13.59 / hour... tax free. So I became unemployed or retired, I would supplement my $450/week EI income with some video poker and I would seek out the bonus promotion days.
The problem once again is bankroll as you only hit a royal ($3,000) every 351,818 hands and a four of a kind ($300) every 2,361 hands. You would need to fund yourself appropriately and be disciplined.
Of course, the casino took out the machines and reduced the comp on all video poker to $.10 / $30 or $40 played.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 13th, 2009 at 5:49:25 AM
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So the upshot of all this seems to be that yes there are indeed machines with a very slight positive expectation but utilizing them for more than simple entertainment-type-gambling would require a fairly high bankroll and very long sessions of perfect play at the end of which the gambler would have actually made little more than the cost of the chiropractor he has to visit after sitting there all that time and maybe never hitting a Royal Flush in his entire lifetime.
November 13th, 2009 at 8:55:44 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffSo the upshot of all this seems to be that yes there are indeed machines with a very slight positive expectation but utilizing them for more than simple entertainment-type-gambling would require a fairly high bankroll and very long sessions of perfect play at the end of which the gambler would have actually made little more than the cost of the chiropractor he has to visit after sitting there all that time and maybe never hitting a Royal Flush in his entire lifetime.
You got it. The professional gambler is indeed a breed. They need a large bankroll and a larger amount of discipline. Some people love the atmosphere of being at a casino and essentially doing something they enjoy anyway and eke out a small living. In Canada, gambling winnings are tax free.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
May 2nd, 2016 at 1:12:21 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffJust how much money would you have to plow into a VP machine at a 0.17 percent player edge to make it worthwhile?
How sensitive would this be to such things as player's error or alcohol intake?
I can't imagine the casinos are ignorant of this, so it is either tolerable to them or its not really a drain on them at all.
It's simple enough. Diligent, sophisticated players bring about a positive expectation either by figuring in casino comps etc. and(or) by playing games (video poker mostly) having a positive expectation. The house profits on the large majority of unsophisticated players, tolerating the sophisticated few who win. This has been the situation with blackjack for years.
May 2nd, 2016 at 1:33:29 PM
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Quote: FleaStiff
I've heard that when first introduced video poker machines were analyzed by the casinos from the viewpoint of someone playing a reasonable poker strategy but a few sharp people made a good deal of money after having developed a strategy focused on getting a Royal Flush rather than playing a sensible poker strategy.
This is not really a true statement. They were analyzed by casinos to return less than 100% when played perfectly (but very close, and in a couple cases slightly above 100%). They assumed that people would not play perfectly and therefore the casino would make money.
The "sharp people" learned how to play to maximize their return.. ie: play perfectly. They do not focus on getting a RF at the expense of a sensible (perfect) strategy.
May 2nd, 2016 at 4:34:26 PM
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Much like card counting, playing straight up positive video poker is pretty much dead. Playing negative games on big multiplier days is also fading away. Mathematically, it is still a luke-warm play, but doing it raises red flags.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 2nd, 2016 at 5:01:44 PM
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And at least some casinos specifically EXCLUDE VP on bonus multiplier days.Quote: WizardPlaying negative games on big multiplier days is also fading away.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
May 2nd, 2016 at 5:12:56 PM
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Quote: JohnnyQAnd at least some casinos specifically EXCLUDE VP on bonus multiplier days.
The first time Motorcity casino here had 3x points, all games were included. Ever since, all VP has been excluded. They got hit hard the first time and said never again.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
May 7th, 2016 at 6:53:40 AM
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Full time for years? I don't know anyone nor have I ever heard of anyone who plays at least 15 hours a week who has went years without a R♣yal.Quote: FleaStiffAre there really video poker players who have played for years and not hit a Royal Flush ever?
I don't know any serious VP player who hasn't hit many many Royals. I think people overestimate how many hands they actually play. IE Mr. Smith, "I been playing VP for years and haven't hit a Royal" Interpretation: I been going to vegas twice a year for 10 years and really only play 2 hours of VP slowly per trip.
People have went 10 scare cycles. That doesn't mean they actually played 420k hands. I'm not sure how how far off from 420k hands you could reasonably be if you were to go 10 scare cycles, but it's got to be a sh%t ton. Unless Alan was nearby then you could magically get dealt 18 A♥Q♥K♥10♥8♣'s in a row and miss. I think he said his son hit 5 single line Royals in one day (In 18 different cities just after eating 118 nuggets?) and lost money.
*A scare is when you miss the Royal by one on the last card. you can get 2 scares in on hand If you have the first four cards to a RF dealt to you, that counts a one scare, if you draw and miss that counts as two.
Either way You must miss on the last card, so if you were dealt and held the 3c RF and drew an 8♣ in the first open spot followed by a 10♥ (A♥Q♥K♥8♣10♥) that's not a scare because you never had a chance to connect once that dam 8 rolled in first.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 23rd, 2016 at 11:26:38 PM
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"I have played well in excess of 100,000 hands of video poker in Las Vegas and other places and have yet to hit a royal flush. On my practice machine at home, I hit royals at the expected rate."
That seems highly improbable as, from what I read, Royals should average each 40k hands or so. But I guess variance could bite you like that.
That seems highly improbable as, from what I read, Royals should average each 40k hands or so. But I guess variance could bite you like that.
June 24th, 2016 at 12:21:21 AM
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Quote: WizardMuch like card counting, playing straight up positive video poker is pretty much dead.
If bj & vp are dead, what games are still viable to play?
June 24th, 2016 at 3:28:42 AM
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That's slightly over 2.5 cycles. Call me when you go 11 cycles and then we have something to talk about. Low % VP, and a dollar won't get you a cup of coffee, unless you use your comps. That's the problem with some of the books and people touting VP. Or perhaps it's a problem with the reader. The books can be misleading, but then people are also not understanding, and they only focus on what they want to believe. IE, some low percentage easy money. As long as I have a bankroll, play perfect have an advantage I will make money.Quote: APEppink"I have played well in excess of 100,000 hands of video poker in Las Vegas and other places and have yet to hit a royal flush. On my practice machine at home, I hit royals at the expected rate."
That seems highly improbable as, from what I read, Royals should average each 40k hands or so. But I guess variance could bite you like that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 24th, 2016 at 10:26:05 AM
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Well, I''d like to thank everyone for resurrecting this ancient thread of mine and contributing anew to it.
Its nice to get a diversity of opinions.
I do realize that booze, meal and room comps may be considered as some as "income" when they boast to themselves or others about being "in the plus column". I've never considered comps as "income". After all, they serve the free booze not to loosen your tongue and libido but to loosen your wallet.
It seems that there are indeed some people who play their pension checks by seeking out and hogging machines ... well, if they enjoy spending several hours a day doing that ... so what. Its better than sitting on a park bench and feeding pigeons.
Its the same way with Perfect Strategy players who pretend to be Ploppies... they don't really fool the Floorman or Pit Boss and they get some sort of heat if they get too greedy. Some casinos even apply heat to red chip players if they recognize them as too greedy.
So I guess its a "tough way to make an easy living" is a good thought to bear in mind but the main lesson is that it IS a living!! Its not an unattainable myth. Its sort of like going to a bar early on a Friday night for the free appetizers. You may not have any respect for the people who do that, but that doesn't stop you from grabbing a plate and filling it. I used to do that at one restaurant that was owned by a man who supported two ex-wives and three bookies. I didn't feel guilty at all.
Its nice to get a diversity of opinions.
I do realize that booze, meal and room comps may be considered as some as "income" when they boast to themselves or others about being "in the plus column". I've never considered comps as "income". After all, they serve the free booze not to loosen your tongue and libido but to loosen your wallet.
It seems that there are indeed some people who play their pension checks by seeking out and hogging machines ... well, if they enjoy spending several hours a day doing that ... so what. Its better than sitting on a park bench and feeding pigeons.
Its the same way with Perfect Strategy players who pretend to be Ploppies... they don't really fool the Floorman or Pit Boss and they get some sort of heat if they get too greedy. Some casinos even apply heat to red chip players if they recognize them as too greedy.
So I guess its a "tough way to make an easy living" is a good thought to bear in mind but the main lesson is that it IS a living!! Its not an unattainable myth. Its sort of like going to a bar early on a Friday night for the free appetizers. You may not have any respect for the people who do that, but that doesn't stop you from grabbing a plate and filling it. I used to do that at one restaurant that was owned by a man who supported two ex-wives and three bookies. I didn't feel guilty at all.
June 28th, 2016 at 5:09:43 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfThat's slightly over 2.5 cycles. Call me when you go 11 cycles and then we have something to talk about. Low % VP, and a dollar won't get you a cup of coffee, unless you use your comps. That's the problem with some of the books and people touting VP. Or perhaps it's a problem with the reader. The books can be misleading, but then people are also not understanding, and they only focus on what they want to believe. IE, some low percentage easy money. As long as I have a bankroll, play perfect have an advantage I will make money.
Is there software available in which any arbitrary game and pay table may be input which returns expectation and strategy?
Thx.
June 28th, 2016 at 6:09:03 AM
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Are you talkinG VP or BJ? if so, yes PM me and i'll give you a link to some diffrent free software. If you are looking for craps, roulette, baccarat or some other game that can't be beaten in a conventional way, I dont know anything about that. If you have an interest in VP or BJ there are programs that will allow you to input many diffrent games and scenarios, and they will give you a strategy to use. The possibility is only limited by your imagination. IE you can have a Video poker machine that only pays you for a Royal flush and all other hands are losers (imagine that). FYI They did have a VP machine that paid like a million dollars for some big VP hand and a small bet.Quote: APEppinkIs there software available in which any arbitrary game and pay table may be input which returns expectation and strategy?
Thx.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 28th, 2016 at 7:05:34 AM
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Try 5dimes- they have a casino with layouts that are all over the place and have options like 2-1 on everything including a royal flush
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 28th, 2016 at 7:09:50 AM
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Quote: APEppink"I have played well in excess of 100,000 hands of video poker in Las Vegas and other places and have yet to hit a royal flush. On my practice machine at home, I hit royals at the expected rate."
That seems highly improbable as, from what I read, Royals should average each 40k hands or so. But I guess variance could bite you like that.
That's not highly improbable. It happens frequently enough if you play enough. It's rather common actually.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
June 28th, 2016 at 7:51:14 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingTry 5dimes- they have a casino with layouts that are all over the place and have options like 2-1 on everything including a royal flush
You are certainly right on that. I love that place, they have every conceivable schedule you could want to play. Very creative whoever is running that show. I applaud their creativity.
Two things I'd like to see them add. Some more video poker progressives, and perhaps a few different types of keno progressives, especially a 6-spot. I'm certainly not complaining, I'm just suggesting. Because they are great. I wish there were some B&M casinos that had imagination like 5-Dimes does.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
July 3rd, 2016 at 2:21:15 PM
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The top videopoker pros are still making a decent living, even in this depleted day and age.
July 4th, 2016 at 11:53:24 AM
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If I had Bob Dancer etc. money I'd be into stocks or real estate. Why bother with these minuscule edges and putting up with all the casino and travel shit. But he likes it, he's an odd duck for sure.Quote: JIMMYFOCKERThe top videopoker pros are still making a decent living, even in this depleted day and age.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 4th, 2016 at 12:54:16 PM
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Explain to me how stocks Is +EV?Quote: teddysIf I had Bob Dancer etc. money I'd be into stocks or real estate. Why bother with these minuscule edges and putting up with all the casino and travel shit. But he likes it, he's an odd duck for sure.
You donr need a bunch of money you play stocks, its like anything else, start small and build up.
I know a few AP'a that went for stocks and real estate and they lost a significant amount of money (especially RE in Vegas ).
At least with AP , win, lose or draw you know what your edge is. Explain what stocks pay a guarantee of 1k-5k pet hour?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 4th, 2016 at 1:05:03 PM
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Depends on what you are investing- I agree ap can be a better guarantee but there are stocks that pay a decent dividend and you can hedge with. Puts against them going down
Last edited by: Wizardofnothing on Jul 4, 2016
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
July 4th, 2016 at 1:39:21 PM
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If people had a guarantee in the market they wouldn't do anything else. I guess there's some insider stuff and whatnot. there are very very very few that can make a profit. The ones who can, do. And they wouldn't even think of AP.Quote: WizardofnothingDepends on what you are investing- I agree ap can be a better guarantee but there are stocks that pay a decent dividend and you can hedge with. Puts against them going good down
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 4th, 2016 at 3:24:07 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfExplain to me how stocks Is +EV?
You donr need a bunch of money you play stocks, its like anything else, start small and build up.
I know a few AP'a that went for stocks and real estate and they lost a significant amount of money (especially RE in Vegas ).
At least with AP , win, lose or draw you know what your edge is. Explain what stocks pay a guarantee of 1k-5k pet hour?
Yep, give me the applied mathematics of positive progressive video poker any day, they can have the stock market as far as I'm concerned.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
July 4th, 2016 at 6:56:21 PM
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If you knew you had an advantage in the market there wouldn't even be a question.Quote: bobbartopYep, give me the applied mathematics of positive progressive video poker any day, they can have the stock market as far as I'm concerned.
Perhaps there is a long term advantage in the market however I don't want to be 50+ before I can spend any money and you have to pay the bills in the mean time.
I'm sure there are a few that do well. Some luck some skill if anyone here claims to be a Wizard in the market I will call BS and compare them to lucky system bettors unless they have invested long term.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 4th, 2016 at 8:32:40 PM
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That was a refreshing blast from the past. Whatever happened to Benjamin? He was such a pleasant fellow.
I'm not sure why people seem to think it's either stocks or gambling. I've done both for years. It's easy to get started with as little as $50, and if you invest regularly and reinvest the dividends, it adds up quickly.
The more I read on this and other gambling forums, I'm amazed by the lack of understanding on how to build wealth. It really isn't that complicated.
I'm not sure why people seem to think it's either stocks or gambling. I've done both for years. It's easy to get started with as little as $50, and if you invest regularly and reinvest the dividends, it adds up quickly.
The more I read on this and other gambling forums, I'm amazed by the lack of understanding on how to build wealth. It really isn't that complicated.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 4th, 2016 at 9:09:57 PM
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If it is that easy please do share. My broke ass could use some wealth. Or maybe I should just stop playing in niagara.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
July 5th, 2016 at 6:03:19 AM
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Quote: teddysIf I had Bob Dancer etc. money I'd be into stocks or real estate. Why bother with these minuscule edges and putting up with all the casino and travel shit. But he likes it, he's an odd duck for sure.
Odd duck, huh? Well, I've been called much worse. BTW, I have money in the stock market. Over the past 25 years I've earned a similar amount from the stock market as I have from video poker. (2007 and 2008 were no fun, however. For me, the swings in the market have been much bigger than the swings at video poker.)
Beware of arguments that start out "if I had xxxx's money, I would . . . " Decisions are based on a whole lot more than how much money you have. They are also based on brains, opportunities (real and perceived), inertia, desires, accumulated knowledge, ego, what happened to you as a kid, etc.
I don't know Teddy but it is very unlikely that he and I match up closely on that list so that the major difference between us is bankroll.
July 5th, 2016 at 7:26:52 AM
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Quote: BobDancerThey are also based on brains, opportunities (real and perceived), inertia, desires, accumulated knowledge, ego, what happened to you as a kid, etc.
When I first read this I thought it said "based on brains, (real and perceived)". Then I read it again, this time correctly.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
July 5th, 2016 at 9:32:02 AM
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Quote: bobbartopWhen I first read this I thought it said "based on brains, (real and perceived)". Then I read it again, this time correctly.
Your "incorrect" reading isn't all wrong.
When I started vp in 1993 I was 46 years old --- and quite a bit smarter than I am today at age 69. Percentagewise how much smarter? I don't know.
Since then I've accumulated a lot of knowledge and experience and craftiness --- but I'm weaker in raw brainpower. Any endeavor I undertake now will be based partly on how smart I think I am --- and that'll just be a guess. And it's also my guess that very few people actually know for sure how smart they are.
Even though I am past my prime brain-wise my accumulated knowledge in video poker makes up for a lot of that --- so I can still compete. For how much longer? Who knows?
In my original list of attributes used to make career decisions I probably should have included tolerance for risk and the ability to hold on to money. Not everybody is cut out for a career at gambling even though they have the innate brains and knowledge.
July 5th, 2016 at 6:54:10 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfIf people had a guarantee in the market they wouldn't do anything else. I guess there's some insider stuff and whatnot. there are very very very few that can make a profit. The ones who can, do. And they wouldn't even think of AP.
I like to refer to the markets as the grandest casino in the world. There are definitely ways to quantify your edge on certain trades. Problem is occurrence frequency of plays that statistically are better than the typical advantage play. Three white soldiers and three black crows are rare but they do occur. However, one has millions of potential opportunities per day. I believe lack of success is directly attributable trying to force an opportunity.
July 5th, 2016 at 8:30:06 PM
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No offense given, and I honestly forgot you posted here.Quote: BobDancerOdd duck, huh? Well, I've been called much worse. BTW, I have money in the stock market. Over the past 25 years I've earned a similar amount from the stock market as I have from video poker. (2007 and 2008 were no fun, however. For me, the swings in the market have been much bigger than the swings at video poker.)
Beware of arguments that start out "if I had xxxx's money, I would . . . " Decisions are based on a whole lot more than how much money you have. They are also based on brains, opportunities (real and perceived), inertia, desires, accumulated knowledge, ego, what happened to you as a kid, etc.
I don't know Teddy but it is very unlikely that he and I match up closely on that list so that the major difference between us is bankroll.
I was on your radio show.
I hear you about the stock market. Curious about real estate, though. In your book you mention your father was a successful real estate investor. Was that something that ever appealed to you?
I know at the bottom of the market I looked at a lot of properties with an agent in Las Vegas. I never bought anything. I wish I had. It would have been to great benefit. Some outside investors bought up basically truckloads of property. They are now extremely wealthy, although involved in tremendous litigation over foreclosures.
I know Stanford Wong was buying condos near the strip. I can't remember if that was near the bottom; I think it was. I wonder how he did with those.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 5th, 2016 at 10:24:00 PM
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Quote: GWAEIf it is that easy please do share. My broke ass could use some wealth. Or maybe I should just stop playing in niagara.
Open a low cost brokerage account with $50. Sign up to have $50 a month taken from your checking account and invested in a mutual fund. After awhile, bump it up to $55. Every month or two bump it up another $5.
You are starting out by taking a little more than $10 out of your cash flow. Then by slowly adding $5 every few weeks, you won't miss that either. Before long, you'll have yourself a thousand dollars in mutual funds, and adding to it monthly with money you'll never miss. At the end of the first year, transfer half the money into an IRA.
Now you have a retirement account and a tax deduction. You are on the path to wealth. Try to get to the point where you are putting 15% of your money into these accounts, but do it slowly. Starting out putting 15% away is painful. Do it slowly. But start today. Take $10 right now and another $10 next payday. Start young enough and you'll have plenty down the road. Compound interest is even more powerful than the house edge.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 5th, 2016 at 10:33:13 PM
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Quote: MaxPenI like to refer to the markets as the grandest casino in the world. There are definitely ways to quantify your edge on certain trades. Problem is occurrence frequency of plays that statistically are better than the typical advantage play. Three white soldiers and three black crows are rare but they do occur. However, one has millions of potential opportunities per day. I believe lack of success is directly attributable trying to force an opportunity.
Some people play the market. I invest in the market. Buy blue chips. Invest regularly and reinvest the dividends. Its not sexy but I recall a race between a certain rabbit and a turtle.
In forty plus years of trading, I've never taken an option, warrant or any gimmick that can multiply your upside but devastate your downside. Never day traded.
Always bought solid companies that already are making superior products and left the speculating to others. I have not had a losing year since the 1990s. Had some mediocre years but thanks to stop losses avoided the meltdown of 2008 and bought back in on the rebound. If I had to self grade my performance, I'd give me a C+ or maybe a B. I might have done better with more risk but built my portfolio slowly and steadily.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 6th, 2016 at 1:16:16 AM
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Quote: APEppinkIs there software available in which any arbitrary game and pay table may be input which returns expectation and strategy?
Thx.
Perhaps
Video Poker For Winners
July 6th, 2016 at 1:58:26 AM
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Quote: billryanCompound interest is even more powerful than the house edge.
It sure is.
This is a Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator based on the historical S&P return.
it shows the what the value of your investment would be over any date range if you tied it to the S&P.
For example, adjusted for inflation and including dividends, $1 invested in 1985 would have grown to $25.84 at the end of 2015.
