Damn, talk about volatility.

I've decided to get my feet wet with AP video poker and have been grinding quarter FPDW and hit a royal, which is great. It's been two days since, and I've been plugging away shamelessly, not hitting anything....

I've already lost $700 of the $1,000 back. I know VP is extremely volatile, but damn. Something tells me that this isn't even that bad of a variance downswing. I figured it would be at least 4-5 days or so of bad variance to come close to $1k. Wow.

I might just take a breather and come back when my nerves and my bankroll is better equipped to handle variance. This cowboy isn't prepared quite yet.

I suppose I could step down to a dime machine in the mean time.

FPDW, with 100% PEFRECT strategy will net you like $9/hour... You could get a minimum wage job and it would pay more...?

EV = (NumHands*AvgBet)*(Advantage) = (1,000*1.25) * (1.0076) = 9.50/hour.

Now factor in the variance of FPDW... This is an insanely hard way to make $9/hour.

The SD of FPDW is 5.082777, as opposed to something like blackjack at 1.15, or JoB at 4.417542.

Say you play for 5 hours per day, 1,000 hands per hour... so 5k hands per day.

OriginalSD = AvgBet * 5.082777 = 1.25 * 5.082777 = 6.35

SD(5k hands) = Sqrt(5,000) * 6.35 = 449.01 ... Want at least 2SD to be sure... 2SD = 898.02

So on a given day, you're expected to make $47.50 +/- 898.02.

Basically, you need a $1k bankroll just to play, each day.

When will you see a guaranteed return (N0)?

EV(50k hands) = (50,000*1.25)*(1.0076) = $475
SD(50k hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 6.35 = 1419.90... 2SD = 2839.81

So after 50,000 hands you'll expect to make $475 +/- $2,839.81... You could still be $2500 in the hole.

EV(250,000 hands) = (250,000*1.25)*(1.0076) = $2,375
SD(250,000 hands) = Sqrt(250,000) * 6.35 = 3175... 2SD = 6350

So after 250,000 hands you'll expect to make $2,375 +/- $6,350... You could still be down $4k.

EV(1 million hands) = (1,000,000 * 1.25) * (1.0076) = $9,500
SD(1 million hands) = Sqrt(1,000,000) * 6.35 = 6350... 2SD = 12,700

So after 1,000,000 hands, you'll expect to make $9,500 +/- $12,700... YOU COULD STILL BE DOWN AFTER A MILLION HANDS.

EV(5 million hands) = $47,500
SD(5 million hands) = 14,199... 2SD = $28,398

So after 5,000,000 hands, you'll expect to make $47,500 +/- $28,398!

HEY! After 5,000,000 hands you could actually guarantee profits! That'll only take you 1,000 days... or 2.74 YEARS to guarantee yourself a profit!

***This is all considering you're playing PERFECTLY at 1,000 hands per hour for 5 hours EVERY day, BTW.

See why there aren't a lot of AP's that chase FPDW for a living? Your time is much better spent elsewhere... If you have that kind of drive you could certainly be more successful doing other things.

N0 is the point at which EV = SD.

:.

Rounds * EV = SD * (Rounds^0.5)

:.

Rounds^0.5 = (SD/EV)

:.

Rounds = (SD/EV)^2

:.

Rounds = (5.0277/0.00762)

:.

Rounds = 659.8031^2

:.

Rounds = 435,340


At this point (435340 rounds) your EV would be (on quarters) $4,146. Being within 1 SD of your EV, your results could be between $0 in profits up to $8,293. You would be within this range 68.2% of the time.

95.4% of the time you would be between -$4,146 and +$12,439.


At 8 hours a day, playing 1000 HPH, your EV/day is $76.20.

Getting to 1 N0 would take 54 days. Or about 11 weeks (playing 5 days a week).

I have played a LOT of .25 FPDW. In my experience, losing $500 in a session isn't all that unusual, and several times. I've lost $1000. I think that would have happened even more times if I hadn't usually called it a day when I got down $500.

In fact, one day, three of us were playing on a shared bankroll, and I hit a royal in the first five minutes. AN HOUR LATER, we were collectively down $150.

So yes, volatility is an issue, and it's hard to stomach sometimes. Your faith in the numbers tends to get kicked in the balls over and over on occasion. You tell yourself you have an advantage--and then you look at your results. You start to question if you're playing the strategy badly, or if the gods just hate you, or if the machines are rigged. Just a few weeks ago, I went sauntering into the Slimeline to play .50 FPDW. In 90 minutes, I lost $600. I didn't hit diddly-squat. Was I pissed? You betcha. But you have to not only deal with results like that; you have to EXPECT them.

IMHO, an absolute minimum bankroll for FPDW is five royals, and it would be much better to have ten. That way, a horrible session is minor damage, not a huge dent.

DW games are more brutal than people think.

Play the 100 Play $0.25 FPDW. You can get a lot more hands in per hour.

Quote: DRich

Play the 100 Play $0.25 FPDW. You can get a lot more hands in per hour.

Skeptical.

Quote: AxelWolf

Skeptical.

If I remember, he once posed a picture of it. Could've been doctored though. :-)

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If I remember, he once posed a picture of it. Could've been doctored though. :-)

It wasn't doctored but that one is no longer in existence. It only lasted 2.5 days. I am not aware of any live ones.

BTW, FPDW is the default paytable on the 100 play if you enable Deuces Wild.

Quote: DRich

Play the 100 Play $0.25 FPDW. You can get a lot more hands in per hour.

Is that the game I keep hearing about where you get 1% cashback, a comped suite for playing for half an hour, and a free massage? Damn, I've been trying to locate that one for years...

Of course, if I were playing that game and was dealt the AKQJ of hearts, it would give me the 3 of clubs 100 times.

Quote: joeshlabotnick

Of course, if I were playing that game and was dealt the AKQJ of hearts, it would give me the 3 of clubs 100 times.

Nothin' better than a sure winner!

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Of course, if I were playing that game and was dealt the AKQJ of hearts, it would give me the 3 of clubs 100 times.

Only Alan M. witnesses those long streaks.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

In fact, one day, three of us were playing on a shared bankroll, and I hit a royal in the first five minutes. AN HOUR LATER, we were collectively down $150.

So yes, volatility is an issue, and it's hard to stomach sometimes. Your faith in the numbers tends to get kicked in the balls over and over on occasion. You tell yourself you have an advantage--and then you look at your results. You start to question if you're playing the strategy badly, or if the gods just hate you, or if the machines are rigged. Just a few weeks ago, I went sauntering into the Slimeline to play .50 FPDW. In 90 minutes, I lost $600. I didn't hit diddly-squat. Was I pissed? You betcha. But you have to not only deal with results like that; you have to EXPECT them.

IMHO, an absolute minimum bankroll for FPDW is five royals, and it would be much better to have ten. That way, a horrible session is minor damage, not a huge dent.

Yep, my faith has been rocked a little bit. Thankfully, I quit while I was still a little bit ahead from my previous royal. When I have the proper bankroll set aside, I will return.

One may ask, why do I want to grind FPDW for what is essentially a minimum wage job?
The answer is that I quite like it! My non-gambling friends think I'm crazy, but I actually really like sitting at a machine for hours on end plugging away at video poker.

By Slimeline, you mean Skyline Casino, located in downtown vegas, right? I've been in there a few times. It really is a craphole.

Quote: Dyvan13

By Slimeline, you mean Skyline Casino, located in downtown vegas, right? I've been in there a few times. It really is a craphole.

Skyline, yes. Downtown, no--it's on Boulder Highway, close to Henderson. Craphole, yes. But it's one of only two places in Nevada (which means, on the planet) where you can play FPDW for larger than .25 denoms (they have ten-coin .25 FPDW).

Quote: Dyvan13

I've decided to get my feet wet with AP video poker and have been grinding quarter FPDW and hit a royal, which is great. It's been two days since, and I've been plugging away shamelessly, not hitting anything....

I've already lost $700 of the $1,000 back. I know VP is extremely volatile, but damn. Something tells me that this isn't even that bad of a variance downswing. I figured it would be at least 4-5 days or so of bad variance to come close to $1k. Wow.

I might just take a breather and come back when my nerves and my bankroll is better equipped to handle variance. This cowboy isn't prepared quite yet.

I suppose I could step down to a dime machine in the mean time.

Other posters, especially Romes, offered you a lot to chew on. Obviously, you're not going to get rich off of it, and yes, you could have a bad run and take a few thousand dollar dip. But here's where it fits well. If you are on Social Security or some type of supplement, it will help you out and you can enjoy playing and relax. I recommend NOT playing with a players card. You won't get anything but a headache for playing with a card, they're not going to give you anything valuable. So skip being labeled a "fpdw player" which could turn negative. I am not saying to avoid taxes, I would never say that. Obey the law. But chances are you won't make enough to have to pay taxes. Win-win.

And face it, one of these days there probably won't be any fpdw left. Might as well enjoy it now.

Quote: bobbartop

If you are on Social Security or some type of supplement, it will help you out and you can enjoy playing and relax. I recommend NOT playing with a players card.

And face it, one of these days there probably won't be any fpdw left. Might as well enjoy it now.

I'm probably the youngest person on these forums. My 22nd birthday was last August. Social Security probably won't even be a thing when I'm at retirement age. Nor will FPDW. So Like you say, enjoy it while it lasts :D

Quote: Dyvan13

I'm probably the youngest person on these forums. My 22nd birthday was last August. Social Security probably won't even be a thing when I'm at retirement age. Nor will FPDW. So Like you say, enjoy it while it lasts :D

Oh, I see. Well enjoy your youth. It does go fast. Trust me, it does go fast.

Long and happy life to you!