abacabb
abacabb
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September 17th, 2016 at 8:36:02 AM permalink
I'm confused about something on this page: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/jacks-or-better/9-6/optimal/

When comparing the values with those from Frugal VP or VPW (which do match each other) there are some differences and I was wondering why...

Dealt royal flush (800.0000)
Dealt straight flush (50.0000)
Dealt four of a kind (25.0000)
4 to a royal flush (18.3617)
Dealt full house (9.0000)
Dealt flush (6.0000)
3 of a kind (4.3025)
Dealt straight (4.0000)
4 to a straight flush (3.5319)

All the dealt stuff matches up obviously, but 4 to a royal on VPW/FVP shows 93.52, which divided by 5 (the programs assume 5 credit bets) would be 18.704, not 18.3617. 3 of a kind matches up perfectly, but 4 to a straight flush is 13.13, which divided by 5 is 2.626 not 3.5319. I was thinking the difference might be that one is showing average and one is showing best, or one is showing average and one is showing worst, but in the case of 4 to a royal FVP/VPW is higher while in the case of 4 to a straight flush WoO is higher.

Basically what I'm going for here is, let's assume I count the number of 4sf draws that I have. Let's say I get X number of gutshot 4sf draws and Y number of open 4sf draws. X and Y are probably different numbers and I'd guess that X > Y. Anyway, if I were to play Z * (X + Y) number of trials, where Z is sufficiently large, would I expect the payout to be near Z * (X + Y) * 3.5319 (from WoO) or Z * (X + Y) * 2.626 (from FVP/VPW)?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 17th, 2016 at 8:55:19 AM permalink
AKQJ suited is more valuable than AKQT suited due to more high pair possibilities. Probably where the difference is. One figure is probably the average and the other the difference between these type of hands.
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abacabb
abacabb
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September 17th, 2016 at 8:57:53 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

AKQJ suited is more valuable than AKQT suited due to more high pair possibilities. Probably where the difference is. One figure is probably the average and the other the difference between these type of hands.



Right, and with 3 of a kind there's no difference because you're getting the same 3oak/4oak/fh frequency regardless of what you have/discard, but with 4sf draws there's a big difference between gutshot and open. That doesn't explain why the difference between the programs and WoO is high in one instance and low in the other.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 17th, 2016 at 9:00:06 AM permalink
In evaluating a hand like four of a straight flush you have to consider whether it is inside or outside and the number of high cards. I made that page so long ago I don't remember how I did it. I would assume the differences between sources is in what hand or hands were considered in calculating the value.
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 17th, 2016 at 9:00:48 AM permalink
The fifth card might matter as well. Use the hand analyzer on WoO and plug in various hands and you'll see the values change.
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RS
RS
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September 17th, 2016 at 1:49:21 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In evaluating a hand like four of a straight flush you have to consider whether it is inside or outside and the number of high cards. I made that page so long ago I don't remember how I did it. I would assume the differences between sources is in what hand or hands were considered in calculating the value.



Btw, exception C is still in the incorrect position.
RS
RS
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September 18th, 2016 at 10:11:58 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Btw, exception C is still in the incorrect position.



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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 18th, 2016 at 10:45:23 PM permalink
Depends if there is a straight penalty/blocker. Your hand description:



Same draws, different cards:



P.S. I prefer "blocker" to "penalty card." Saves energy.
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