Bankroll needed for this promotion
January 12th, 2016 at 6:42:41 PM
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There is a promotion at a casino nearby where my father-in-law lives.
play a minimum of 400 hands per day, for 10 days in a row
the game is 9/6 JoB
This is a $25 machine ($125/pull)
what bankroll would I need in order to have a good chance to not go broke trying to play this promo?
I have $5000 (40 pulls) what are my odds of ruins per day?
Also is there a RoR calculator for VP? (I searched for one but I couldn't find one)
play a minimum of 400 hands per day, for 10 days in a row
the game is 9/6 JoB
This is a $25 machine ($125/pull)
what bankroll would I need in order to have a good chance to not go broke trying to play this promo?
I have $5000 (40 pulls) what are my odds of ruins per day?
Also is there a RoR calculator for VP? (I searched for one but I couldn't find one)
January 12th, 2016 at 6:52:02 PM
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Yikes! I don't know what your chances of ruin per day is, but, I'd guess pretty high [at least 25% ruin is my guess].
January 12th, 2016 at 7:10:46 PM
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It's the same as $50 for a 25¢ game.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 12th, 2016 at 7:11:33 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesIt's the same as $50 for a 25¢ game.
how do I calculate what that is? (im assuming its pretty high)
January 12th, 2016 at 7:12:58 PM
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What do you get for the promo anyway?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 12th, 2016 at 7:13:30 PM
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Depends. What do you get from the promo?
10% cashback? Sounds great
Drawing tickets? Sounds crappy
Loss rebate?
Basically it comes down to how you get your ev back.
10% cashback? Sounds great
Drawing tickets? Sounds crappy
Loss rebate?
Basically it comes down to how you get your ev back.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
January 12th, 2016 at 7:15:58 PM
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Well based on SD formula (which doesn't work too well with very few # of hands played)....you get:
19.5^0.5 * 400^0.5 * $125 = $11,040.
Even at the $5 denom ($25/spin), you're still not looking at too great of a game there if your entire bankroll is $5K.
19.5^0.5 * 400^0.5 * $125 = $11,040.
Even at the $5 denom ($25/spin), you're still not looking at too great of a game there if your entire bankroll is $5K.
January 13th, 2016 at 6:56:32 AM
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You *could* get lucky and hit a quad in those 40 pulls. If you didn't get a quad, I think your bankroll would be gone the first day.
It is, however, a very interesting promotion. If someone hit a royal, I think the casino would hurt.
It is, however, a very interesting promotion. If someone hit a royal, I think the casino would hurt.
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
January 13th, 2016 at 7:28:38 AM
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The Wiz provides the tools you need to answer this on:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/
January 13th, 2016 at 8:37:06 AM
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Quote: GaryJKoehlerThe Wiz provides the tools you need to answer this on:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/
I have so much to learn. While I'm familiar with the term "Standard Deviation", and I know that if a value is X, =/- the standard deviation, I understand that the value of x could vary between x + the std. Dev. and X - the Std. Dev.
And I know that Variance is a value that shows the ebb and flow of the credits you have to play with, sort of. The higher the value, the greater the variation of the results - you could win or lose that much more. (or less)
What I don't get is 15254 "units" is $19067.50, if the game is 25 cent 9/6 JoB. That seems like an obscene amount of money required. One of these days I will have to sit down at a 25 cent machine and play and play all day just to see what happens - and measure how many hands I play, how many pairs, 2 pairs, trips, etc I get.
And then do it again the next day and document the difference. And that would be very tedious, taking those kinds of notes, tabulating those results. Tracking the number of hands played would probably be the worst part.
I realize the 19k+ figure is for an "indefinite" amount of time. Is there a way to pinpoint this value to #of hands, instead of the unknown time quantity?
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
January 13th, 2016 at 8:41:00 AM
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It's much simpler and more realistic to set an amount of hands you hope to achieve... such as the OP. He said what, like 5 days at 400 hands per day. There you go, 2000 hands. Also, I'm not sure how the Wizard does it, but I would assume he's doing 3 SD's, as that comes with 99% confidence. 1SD = 66%, 2SD = 95%, 3SD = 99%. Basically, when you say plus or minus 3SD, you can mathematically guarantee your results will fall in that spectrum, otherwise you can consider cheating/foul play. This is one way we proved the "player edge online blackjack" game the wiz found to be cheating. We took all of our data and combined it and it was 4SD+ out to the bad with a ton of individuals (me being one) being about 6SD out to the bad.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 13th, 2016 at 9:12:24 AM
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Quote: ukaserex
I realize the 19k+ figure is for an "indefinite" amount of time. Is there a way to pinpoint this value to #of hands, instead of the unknown time quantity?
A simulation.
As for the OP, what is the promo even? Why do you have to play JoB at the $25 level? If the $5k bankroll is for the length of the entire promo, RoR has to be pretty high, well above 50%, I would have to run a sim to be sure though.
January 14th, 2016 at 3:15:09 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneA simulation.
As for the OP, what is the promo even? Why do you have to play JoB at the $25 level? If the $5k bankroll is for the length of the entire promo, RoR has to be pretty high, well above 50%, I would have to run a sim to be sure though.
yeah BR is 5k for the entire promo,
not an unlimited # of hands, just 400 hands per day for 10 days,
Im curious what my chances of making it to the end are, and what my chances of making it to the end of the 1st day are.
I know the odds are bleak, but.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYX-NSZMqt0 (except do tell me the odds)
January 15th, 2016 at 8:00:39 AM
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I ran this for 10 sessions
Highlights
day 1) During the first 200 hands you are as high as +70 credits and as low as -90 credits, ending with -40 credits. Next 200 hands you never get back in the black you are down as low -110 and you end up -60 credits for the day.
day 2) During the first 200 hands you are as high as +30 credits and as low as -95, ending with -30. Next 200 hands are down as low -120 and end +40 credits for the day.
day 3) You are down as low as -130 credits up as much as +80 credits, ending up +25 for the day.
day 4) You are down as low as -150 credits and up as much as +50, ending up +40 credits for the day.
day 5) It's straight down -400 credits at one point when you spike a few things gaining back +200 credits, ending up -200 credits for the day.
day 6) You get up +100 credits but then its straight down to as low as - 250 credits ending - 200 for the day again.
day 7) You stay fairly even for a while then drop to -250 credits but end +50 credits for the day.
day 8) You get up +10 credits down as low as -180 credits, ending up -70 credits for the day.
day 9) You go straight down -265 credits you spike up at the end and break even for the day.
day 10) You are as low as -115 credits as high as +35 credits, you end up down -90 credits for the day.
Highlights
day 1) During the first 200 hands you are as high as +70 credits and as low as -90 credits, ending with -40 credits. Next 200 hands you never get back in the black you are down as low -110 and you end up -60 credits for the day.
day 2) During the first 200 hands you are as high as +30 credits and as low as -95, ending with -30. Next 200 hands are down as low -120 and end +40 credits for the day.
day 3) You are down as low as -130 credits up as much as +80 credits, ending up +25 for the day.
day 4) You are down as low as -150 credits and up as much as +50, ending up +40 credits for the day.
day 5) It's straight down -400 credits at one point when you spike a few things gaining back +200 credits, ending up -200 credits for the day.
day 6) You get up +100 credits but then its straight down to as low as - 250 credits ending - 200 for the day again.
day 7) You stay fairly even for a while then drop to -250 credits but end +50 credits for the day.
day 8) You get up +10 credits down as low as -180 credits, ending up -70 credits for the day.
day 9) You go straight down -265 credits you spike up at the end and break even for the day.
day 10) You are as low as -115 credits as high as +35 credits, you end up down -90 credits for the day.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 15th, 2016 at 8:04:43 AM
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34% on $5k =/.Quote: Bondy3..Im curious what my chances of making it to the end are, and what my chances of making it to the end of the 1st day are...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
January 16th, 2016 at 2:34:24 PM
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Quote: Romes34% on $5k =/.
How did you get 34%?
Im not very good at math, but I did write a basic java program to crunch the numbers and I had success 36% of the time with 10m trials, I used the wizards probability table for 9/6 JoB and I cut off the last 4 digits of all the # of combinations (because an int doesn't have that many digits of precision)
can you take a look at my code and tell me if I was doing something wrong?
takes about 20 seconds to do 1m trials on my 2011 dell laptop. (sorry if my code is formatted poorly, I'm not the best programmer)
public class Main {
public static void main(String[] args) {
JacksOrBetter();
}
static void JacksOrBetter(){
double start = System.nanoTime();
Random dice = new Random();
long hand;
int[] diedAt = new int[11];
int trials = 1000000;
for(int k=0;k<trials;k++){
int rounds = 400;
int days = 10;
int units = 40;
for (int j=0;j<days;j++){
if(units == 0){
// System.out.println("died on day: " + j);
break;
}
for(int i=0;i<rounds;i++){
if (units == 0){
// System.out.print("went broke on round " + i + ",");
diedAt++;
break;
}
units --;
hand = dice.nextInt(1993323051)+1;
// royal flush
if(hand < 49351){
// System.out.println("Royal Flush");
units += 800;
continue;
}
hand -= 49351;
// straight flush
if(hand < 217888){
// System.out.println("Straight Flush");
units += 50;
continue;
}
hand -= 217888;
// 4 of a kind
if(hand < 4709316){
// System.out.println("4 of a kind");
units += 25;
continue;
}
hand -= 4709316;
// full house
if(hand < 22947548){
// System.out.println("Full House");
units += 9;
continue;
}
hand -= 22947548;
//flush
if(hand < 21955478){
// System.out.println("Flush");
units += 6;
continue;
}
hand -= 21955478;
//straight
if(hand < 22383756){
// System.out.println("Straight");
units += 4;
continue;
}
hand -= 22383756;
// 3 of a kind
if(hand < 148400307){
// System.out.println("3 of a kind");
units += 3;
continue;
}
hand -= 148400307;
// 2 pair
if(hand < 257694616){
// System.out.println("two pair");
units += 2;
continue;
}
hand -= 257694616;
// jacks or better
if(hand < 427737289){
// System.out.println("Jacks or better");
units += 1;
continue;
}
hand -= 427737289;
// nothing
if(hand < 1087227499){
// System.out.println("Nothing");
continue;
}
hand -= 1087227499;
if(hand > 0){
System.out.println("ERROR!!!!: Hand=" + hand);
break;
}
}
}
// survived promotion
if(units > 0){
diedAt[10]++;
}
}
for(int i=1;i<11;i++){
System.out.println("Probability of going broke on day " + i + ": " + (((double) diedAt[i-1])/(double)trials)*100 + "%");
}
System.out.println("Probability of beating the promotion: " + (((double) diedAt[10])/(double)trials)*100 + "%");
double end = System.nanoTime();
double total = end-start;
System.out.println();
System.out.println("total time: " + total/1000000 + "ms");
}
}
Output looks like this
Probability of going broke on day 1: 36.1437%
Probability of going broke on day 2: 21.7673%
Probability of going broke on day 3: 10.3903%
Probability of going broke on day 4: 6.2279%
Probability of going broke on day 5: 4.1677%
Probability of going broke on day 6: 3.0013%
Probability of going broke on day 7: 2.2421%
Probability of going broke on day 8: 1.7494%
Probability of going broke on day 9: 1.3754%
Probability of going broke on day 10: 1.1324%
Probability of beating the promotion: 11.617%
was my logic alright or did I make a mistake with it?
