What amount of playthrough is too much that makes us lose ev? (50x ,100x 300x ? )
What strategys are best for beating bonuses with video poker ? (big bets ,lots of small bets -double up features)
I think this thread should exist so fire away.
Given that most bonuses nowdays are Slot Heavy and give 10% on vp clear rate to me it seems betting big and going for royal to be good strategy ...perhaps ...then grind down the rest . Obviously this is a volatile (but fun strategy) and many people might not like it .
Playing big and going for the Royal sucks, you should make the hold with the best EV. Your amount per hand bet does not change your expectation if the paytable is the same, but can increase or decrease Variance. For less Variance, bet as little as you can stand.
Double up features generally do not count towards Wagering Requirements.
Quote: zuti6What are the highest possible wr that could still result in profit for Jacks 96?
You're always really short on specifics! I would need to know how much the Bonus is and whether or not it is a Phantom Bonus.
Quote: zuti6Oh damn ,sorry. Lets say its a matched bonus . And a common (i think ) deposit 100 get 200 insta. What would be wr playthrough thats max where we keep ev?
What you are missing is that sometimes you put in 100 and get 200. Once you cash out they take their 200 back. So if you clear your bonus and your balance is $198, when you cash out you would get $0.
Quote: zuti6Is it always like that? Id assume at some places you get to keep 198$
Some, you must determine whether or not the Bonus itself is cashable.
It's really fairly simple math. Just slow down, gather all of your variables, and think...Quote: zuti6Mission ,lets say bonus is absoultely cashable .What is our strategy then all the above factors being the same?
If you deposit $100, get $200, for a total account of $300... and you have a decent game to play, say 9-6 JoB (99.54% Expected Return)... then you just need to know how many times you have to cycle the bonus money through.
If you have to cycle it through 40 times, then that's your Total Action... 40x200 = 8,000 in total action. 60x200 = 12,000 in total action... 100x200 is 20,000 in total action etc.
So now you know your Expected Return, you know your Total Action, and thus you can calculate your EV...
If you play 9-6 JoB for 20,000 (100x bonus rollover) in action, your Expected Loss (EL) = TotalAction * HouseEdge = (20,000)*(-.0046) = -92. If you're getting $200 bonus, and you can cash that bonus out, then you can expect (on average) to make $108 from that bonus.
Summary
Get the variables: house edge of the best game you can play, how much Total Action you'll need on that game given the bonus you'll get, if you can cash out the bonus after the play through...
Next do the calculations: Find out what your expected loss would be, given your Total Action and the House Edge. If your expected loss is LESS than the value of the bonus, then you can expect to make money*.
*This does not figure in Standard Deviations, etc. This means yes, you can 'expect on average' to make money, but don't forget about variance which may lead you to win more, or lose more (and thus lose on any given bonus).
I figure this is 1) easy enough, and 2) common knowledge enough to post. If anyone disagrees just message me and I can remove.
You'd rate it that high? =P I'd think your chances of actually being paid are a bit lower than that!Quote: GWAEOf course you have to figure out the percentage of actually being paid when you win. That's usually a 50/50 proposition.
"*This does not figure in Standard Deviations, etc. This means yes, you can 'expect on average' to make money, but don't forget about variance which may lead you to win more, or lose more (and thus lose on any given bonus)."
Romes, given the SD and variance, what percentage should i bet of total "bankroll" of 100 deposit +200 bonus aka 300 ? if i bet 1.25 $ thats good or should i bet more?
After 20 hours your EL = (20,000)*(-.0046) = -92... which means you're Expected Value EV = $108 from the promotion.
The variance in VP is high... The Wiz has a page with all of the diff games and their variances. 9/6 JoB is the lowest, but I think think it was still a fair amount. I could see $300 lasting at the quarter level for 20 hours, but I could also easily see you busting before hitting the 20 hour mark with only $300. Think about going to a real casino with $300 and playing .25 level VP for 20 hours straight. Odds are that $300 won't last unless you hit something big near the beginning, in which you'd probably just want to cash it out and be done... The bonuses now days are set up so that you basically can't win them... and 1/2 the time even if you do, they simply don't pay you and screw you because they're online sites.
Unless you find something online you can make some REAL money doing, from a REPUTABLE site that you're confident will pay you, I'd just stay away from trying to "AP" online promotions. If you just want to play for fun as well, then stick to a reputable site but go for it.
ALL? That's not true.Quote: zuti6Either way lets face it . All deposit bonuses have 400x wag req for video poker and thus arent profitable at all. silly casinos.
and i meant to say 300 not 400 .oops.
Oh, you meant only the Wizard sites.Quote: zuti6Ive looked at wizard approved casinos and Ive found 1 that has more than 10% wagering requirements counting with video poker and that was 20% . So with 10% it means like 300x deposit+bonus and we are losing there, no? It seems that about 225x wag req with jacks 96 is breakeven spot if im not wrong and finding less than 250 is a miracle ,at least with reputable sites. Maybe im not looking in right places?
and i meant to say 300 not 400 .oops.
Try LCB.
Have you looked at Winaday?
Because they give you FREE money and have low wagering requirements, you can over come the -EV on the games.Quote: zuti6Why would you recommend winaday when their video poker is a slot ? I actually checked their games with no deposit upon your recommendation and its a fun looking site but being gaffed how could i allow myself to deposit and expect +ev...
They CLAIM 98% slot paybacks as well
I'm not sure if they are doing a free $50 anymore ,but they almost always send free money on holidays and random email bonuses.Quote: zuti6Would you deposit just a little(20$) and then use no deposit (FREE) money ? or do you still think depositing more is better?
IIRC you can only use 2 free bonuses before you have to make a deposit. If you can get 2 freebies then afterwards use the 100% for whatever the max is($250?). do the 10x WR. Then you can probably get 2 more freebies.
I can't remember if they have 9/6 job, but lets assume they don't, assume the VP is -2% you're profit is $200. just from the 100% bonus.
I estimate you'll probably actually come out with +$75 if you grind nickel VP on the 100% bonus.
I think you get an extra $50 if you deposit $500 but not sure what of if they have WRs for that.