Bankroll required for JoB promo

I believe I can get a >1% edge in jacks or better during a certain promo period. How can I calculate my trip bankroll and long term bankroll if I want to pursue such promos?

Avincow, here you go:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

The way I see it, if you play 99.5% JoB, get 1.5% EV back somehow, to get to your claimed +1% EV, you have a 50% chance of going broke playing quarters with ~$625, about 500 units of $1.25.

Quote: surrender88s

The way I see it, if you play 99.5% JoB, get 1.5% EV back somehow, to get to your claimed +1% EV, you have a 50% chance of going broke playing quarters with ~$625, about 500 units of $1.25.

It really depends on how it works and the promotion n whatnot.

What if you had in some variance? Maybe you play 1k coin in and get a spin thing for a 50% chance of $30 in FP and a 50% chance of $0. ?

Or maybe it's a big drawing, with tiny chances of winning...but when you do win, you win much much more.

Quote: surrender88s

Avincow, here you go:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Not very hard to believe. In blackjack, you need about $5000 to play at $5 tables for 1% ror. And you get paid 1:1 most of the time. In vp you have bigger swings.

Also, with a house edge at -.44% + .5% = 0.04%... That's a tiny edge, practically unplayable for profit. Compare that to a .001% house edge where you have a 100% chance of ruin no matter what size the bankroll.

Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Remember these are infinite calculations and that a royal flush represents about 2% of the return. Run bad on the royals and you still lose. 2.5 years and counting for me.

duplicate

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Remember these are infinite calculations and that a royal flush represents about 2% of the return. Run bad on the royals and you still lose. 2.5 years and counting for me.

2.5 years? How Many hands/ cycles? It took me a long time to hit my first about royal 6 cycles. To be fair I played something that had a long RF cycle. approximately 50k hand cycle.

I cant be certain exactly how many hands I played. I didn't count before I quit my job. I played a fair amount on .5 nickel progressive at the Westward Ho when it got up. And various different types of VP, like double down stud.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Remember these are infinite calculations and that a royal flush represents about 2% of the return. Run bad on the royals and you still lose. 2.5 years and counting for me.

2.5 years? How Many hands/ cycles? It took me a long time to hit my first about royal 6 cycles. To be fair I played something that had a long RF cycle. approximately 50k hand cycle.

I cant be certain exactly how many hands I played. I didn't count before I quit my job. I played a fair amount on .5 nickel progressive at the Westward Ho when it got up. And various different types of VP, like double down stud.

Tring is just being cursed by the AP gods for his updates to vpfree2 ;)

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. at 1.5% cashback (to get +1% EV), you still need a $2000 bankroll for a 90% chance of not going broke at .25 denom?

at .5% cashback (to get to 0% EV), you need $16k bankroll for a 50% chance of not going broke?!?!

Remember these are infinite calculations and that a royal flush represents about 2% of the return. Run bad on the royals and you still lose. 2.5 years and counting for me.

You're making me nervous. Are you in this for fun, or for money? How many hands/hours have you played? With mailers and cash back are you positive? If you're in the red, how many units are you down if you don't mind me asking.

Quote: AxelWolf

2.5 years? How Many hands/ cycles? It took me a long time to hit my first about royal 6 cycles. To be fair I played something that had a long RF cycle. approximately 50k hand cycle.

I cant be certain exactly how many hands I played. I didn't count before I quit my job. I played a fair amount on .5 nickel progressive at the Westward Ho when it got up. And various different types of VP, like double down stud.

Oh I'm mostly just whining with that comment. I feel like I play a lot at times, but a lot of it is single line, and it's probably less than 3 cycles. I have 230 quads documented before my last royal, but I also didn't always take quad pics since my last royal.

Quote: RogerKint

Tring is just being cursed by the AP gods for his updates to vpfree2 ;)

Possibly, but general laziness has made me not report there in awhile. I have a lot of meh machine data to share too. Some other person added the dollar 8/5 SDDB (99.69%) bartops at Circus Circus for me a few days after I wrote my last Vegas TR and left a comment hinting he/she got that info from reading my TR.

And give me a little credit, I intentionally didn't report the single 10/6 DDB bartop my g/f found at Gustav's Bar at Paris last year. The "glitch" got "fixed" by the time I could get back there though, but one person on VMB PMed me about the machine's info two months later and he said it was still there. If I would have reported it to VPFree2 though, that glitch wouldn't have lasted a week...lol

Quote: tringlomane

Oh I'm mostly just whining with that comment. I feel like I play a lot at times, but a lot of it is single line, and it's probably less than 3 cycles. I have 230 quads documented before my last royal, but I also didn't always take quad pics since my last royal.



Possibly, but general laziness has made me not report there in awhile. I have a lot of meh machine data to share too. Some other person added the dollar 8/5 SDDB (99.69%) bartops at Circus Circus for me a few days after I wrote my last Vegas TR and left a comment hinting he/she got that info from reading my TR.

And give me a little credit, I intentionally didn't report the single 10/6 DDB bartop my g/f found at Gustav's Bar at Paris last year. The "glitch" got "fixed" by the time I could get back there though, but one person on VMB PMed me about the machine's info two months later and he said it was still there. If I would have reported it to VPFree2 though, that glitch wouldn't have lasted a week...lol

There's always some hot girls at that bar (not working ones) By chance I always end up there while meting up with forum members.

Good theo and +ev = good play. Telling Vpfree = tar and feathers.

Quote: tringlomane

Possibly, but general laziness has made me not report there in awhile.

urgently needed to fight laziness ;)