Hansol333
Hansol333
Joined: Jan 31, 2015
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February 4th, 2015 at 1:21:00 PM permalink
I opended a thread a few days before but that was mainly about doubling rounds.

I found a video poker maschine in a gambling hall with unlikely high ER. It is a maschine designed by a big european gambling manufactory (gambling hall is located in europe too). Most of the 50+ games on the maschine are slots but there are also a few different games like bingo, roulette and one video poker game.

Here is the paytable:
five of a kind: 1000
royal flush: 500
straight flush: 200
four of a kind: 50
full house: 12
flush: 9
straight: 7
three of a kind: 5
two pairs: 3
Pair (jacks or better): 1

I compared the paytable with: joker kings or better

That would result in an ER of over 200% but I have to bet 2 times per round. I bet one coin, get my 5 cards, select the ones I want to keep and chance the cards which requires another coin. Even If I would never hit anything better than 4 of a kind I would still have a >100% ER.

I copied that in excel, replaced the payouts with my own and multiply the PROBABILITY with the pay, divide it with 2 (I have to bet 2 coins per round) to calculate the return.

But it is still over 100%. There are also two other advatages

-I win also with a pair of jacks or queens. Even I only get half it appears very often.

-I dont have to pay for the second round. If I have nothing and keep all cards a new round will begin. I used the Hand Analyzer:
with Joker (kings or better). The expected Return for some bad hands (no pair or 4/5 street where something in the middle is missing) is below 1. Since changing cards costs me 1 coin I surrender to bad starting hands.

ER (counting only kings and aces as pair): 114 %
ER (increasing probability of one high pair by 50%): 118 %
ER with surrender possibility: even greater

The maximum amount you can bet are 50 cents.
I can not believe that the ER is so high. Or made I some wrong calculations. With such high ER it seems to be impossible to loose at this game (no matter how big the variance or even with some major playing errors). Must be rigged.
Dieter
Dieter
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February 4th, 2015 at 1:33:01 PM permalink
Quote: Hansol333

I have to bet 2 times per round. I bet one coin, get my 5 cards, select the ones I want to keep and chance the cards which requires another coin.


Quote: Hansol333

I dont have to pay for the second round. If I have nothing and keep all cards a new round will begin.



So, buying the draw costs a second coin?

If you were comparing it to "standard" video poker, I think that means you divide all the payouts by 2.

You do have an advantage if you're dealt a good hand (2pair or better). If you need to draw (most of the time), dividing by 2 is appropriate for comparison.

So... with a paytable more like:
5oK: 500
Royal: 250
Straight Flush: 100
4oK: 25
full: 6
flush: 4.5
straight: 3.5
3oK: 2.5
2 pair: 1.5
JoB: .5

Is there the common royal bonus for betting 5 coins at a time?
May the cards fall in your favor.
Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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February 4th, 2015 at 1:33:05 PM permalink
The rules governing video poker in Nevada do not apply to the machine you are describing. I assume you are from Germany...

Basically, you are playing a slot machine, thus the paytable does not allow you to calculate the ER.

If this machine is indeed located in Germany, outside the state run casinos (you mentioned "gambling hall"), it is governed by these rules:

maximum hourly loss: 80 Euros
maximum average hourly loss: 33 Euros
maximum hourly win: 500 Euros

It would be impossible for a Class III VP machine to adhere to these rules. The rest is up to the manufacturer...
Hansol333
Hansol333
Joined: Jan 31, 2015
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:12:08 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

So, buying the draw costs a second coin?

If you were comparing it to "standard" video poker, I think that means you divide all the payouts by 2.

You do have an advantage if you're dealt a good hand (2pair or better). If you need to draw (most of the time), dividing by 2 is appropriate for comparison.

Is there the common royal bonus for betting 5 coins at a time?



Like said I divided the bonus with 2 and still have an advantage.

No there is no bonus for making the maximum bet. There is also no natural royal flush meaning that 5 of a kind is the best payout. The payout is increased proportional. If I increase the bet from 5 cents (the minimum) to 50 cents (the maximum), all payouts are increased to 1000%.




Quote: Canyonero

The rules governing video poker in Nevada do not apply to the machine you are describing. I assume you are from Germany...

Basically, you are playing a slot machine, thus the paytable does not allow you to calculate the ER.

If this machine is indeed located in Germany, outside the state run casinos (you mentioned "gambling hall"), it is governed by these rules:

maximum hourly loss: 80 Euros
maximum average hourly loss: 33 Euros
maximum hourly win: 500 Euros

It would be impossible for a Class III VP machine to adhere to these rules. The rest is up to the manufacturer...



Yes correct I am from Germany.

Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?
There are 52 cards + one joker. Therefore I know the possibilities to draw the different hands. Ok I do not know them but believe the wizard. With the payback I should be able to calculate the ER. The only exception would be if the joker is only added in an unknown random percentage of rounds (but I assume/hope that's illegal).

What is a Class III VP machine ???
The truth is that I haven't occupied me with gaming regulation/laws here in my own country. So far I thought my winnings and loses could be endless. The only thing I exprienced so far was that the maschines stopped for a while after a certain time of play.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:20:17 PM permalink
Quote: Hansol333


Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?
There are 52 cards + one joker. Therefore I know the possibilities to draw the different hands.



Put simply, this class of machine does not emulate real cards with real probabilities: It decides what percentage it is going to return (almost always <100% medium to long term) and deals whatever cards are required to meet that percentage, not from some random selected array of cards, but rather from something that makes it look like it has used a random selection of cards..

A bit like old fashioned slot machines with 3 reels of symbols. You can count and analyse the symbols and their supposed probabilities until hell freezes over, but the outcome of each play is probably decided before the reels start to spin and the reels are caused to land wherever they need to to cause that outcome.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Canyonero
Canyonero
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:24:05 PM permalink
Quote: Hansol333



Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?


What is a Class III VP machine ???



because the deal in the draw are not random. The machine decides what you should win or lose and shows you cards accordingly. A class III machine is a machine that is "truly random", i.e. works like a real deck of cards would.
Hansol333
Hansol333
Joined: Jan 31, 2015
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:40:46 PM permalink
thanks @OnceDear and Canyonero

Good thing to know that I won't play this game.

I thought that all gambling maschines are truly random. (watched some videos and read some articles about gambling, but of course thats only for USA).

But one question:

I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:53:29 PM permalink
Quote: Hansol333


But one question:

I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?



Not usually enough for it to be an advantage to you. You don't know how long is 'a long time' for the machine. Maybe the previous guy though that his twelve hours pumping money in and losing was 'a long time', but then maybe the machine was intent on taking in more than it pays out for another 7 days. You play those 7 days and maybe the guy who follows you will profit.... Or maybe it was 14 days, and so on and so on.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Canyonero
Canyonero
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February 4th, 2015 at 2:58:31 PM permalink
Quote: Hansol333



I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?



Yes, these machines can be vultured. If you were lucky enough to see a guy put in 80 euros, lose it within half an hour and leave, you would be guaranteed to be at least even for the next half hour. This is highly unlikely though. Generally, the more you see people lose on a particular machine, the better your odds are gonna be.
Hansol333
Hansol333
Joined: Jan 31, 2015
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February 4th, 2015 at 3:00:50 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Not usually enough for it to be an advantage to you. You don't know how long is 'a long time' for the machine. Maybe the previous guy though that his twelve hours pumping money in and losing was 'a long time', but then maybe the machine was intent on taking in more than it pays out for another 7 days. You play those 7 days and maybe the guy who follows you will profit.... Or maybe it was 14 days, and so on and so on.



Ok thanks, by the way:
is there a way to know what maschines are truly random and which are not.

One criteria I know so far. A VP maschine with >100% ER is most likely not truly random.

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