extra EV through bonus chance rounds
January 31st, 2015 at 10:34:04 AM
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Hello everyone I have a question about gambling. I found a Video Poker game that has an EV of 98% with perfect play. It has also some kind of bonus rounds where you can win extra money but since there is now way to determine when it occurs I only calculate 98%.
The maschine has an chance round. If you win you can collect your win or risk to double it. You can bet on red or black. If you bet on black and a black card appears you win, if a red card appears you loose. Sounds fair because there are 26 red and 26 black cards. The cards are drawn from a new deck because it is possible to draw the same card that is already in your wining hand. I found several games where it is possible to risk your winning but only ONCE.
In this game you can double several times. Lets say your bet on red was correct and you can risk doubling again. Now there should be only 25 red cards and 26 black cards. If you now bet on black you should get a positive EV. The next round is without EV but the round nr. 4 should have once again a positve EV, this time even greater than in round 2.
If I am not wrong you could double 5 times.
I tried my game (without real money) to see if it was possible to get 2 times the same card in the doubling rounds. So far it has not happend but the chance is very low. May be they also remove one red card for every black card that was drawn in the bonus rounds.
Has anybody here experience with that?
The maschine has an chance round. If you win you can collect your win or risk to double it. You can bet on red or black. If you bet on black and a black card appears you win, if a red card appears you loose. Sounds fair because there are 26 red and 26 black cards. The cards are drawn from a new deck because it is possible to draw the same card that is already in your wining hand. I found several games where it is possible to risk your winning but only ONCE.
In this game you can double several times. Lets say your bet on red was correct and you can risk doubling again. Now there should be only 25 red cards and 26 black cards. If you now bet on black you should get a positive EV. The next round is without EV but the round nr. 4 should have once again a positve EV, this time even greater than in round 2.
If I am not wrong you could double 5 times.
I tried my game (without real money) to see if it was possible to get 2 times the same card in the doubling rounds. So far it has not happend but the chance is very low. May be they also remove one red card for every black card that was drawn in the bonus rounds.
Has anybody here experience with that?
January 31st, 2015 at 11:07:11 AM
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When you play the bonus round a second time, does the first card remain on the screen (even after the second card is dealt)? If it doesn't, then I would say that it's always a 50/50 chance, especially with Nevada's "an electronic deck of cards must mimic a real deck" rule.
Even if the card did come out of the deck, you're assuming that the bonus round is dealt from a single deck.
Even if the card did come out of the deck, you're assuming that the bonus round is dealt from a single deck.
January 31st, 2015 at 11:14:59 AM
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I have seen somthing like this and you could do exactly what you are thinking.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 31st, 2015 at 11:15:04 AM
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the cards remain even after the 4th. card
In the upper are are the cards from the doubling game
in the area beneath are the five cards to form a winning hand.d
So far ALL cards in the upper area were different.
Edit: Would be awesome if there was also the joker card.
In the upper are are the cards from the doubling game
in the area beneath are the five cards to form a winning hand.d
So far ALL cards in the upper area were different.
Edit: Would be awesome if there was also the joker card.
February 1st, 2015 at 1:34:35 PM
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I played the game several times on a internet website. The game includes one joker. However the joker never appeared so far in the doubling rounds (may be I just had bad luck).
I was today again in a small casino or lets say gambling building. There I first saw the game and calculated the odds. Without the bonus rounds it is 98%. I used the doubling rounds and guess what card appeared? Good luck it appeared 2 times in a row. The first time I got a straight flush with a joker and right after in the doubling round it appeared again. Knowing that the joker is also available in the doubling rounds allowing me to calculate the Bonus EV.
round1: 27 cards to win 26 to loose. EV: 1,018868
round2: 27 cards to win 25 to loose. EV: 1,038462
round3: 26 cards to win 25 to loose. EV: 1,019608
round4: 26 cards to win 24 to loose. EV: 1,04
round4: total EV (multiply EV 1-4): 1,121953 (or lets say 1,1 because the joker can be pulled and high winnings cant be doubled often)
....
calculated with joker, as soon the joker is pulled the bonus EV ist slightly reduced. I would stop after round 4 or as soon the joker is drawn and the amount of red/black cards is even. It is also possible to double up to 10 times. Low payouts can be doubled 10 times while higher winnings only 2-4 times. However if you reach the maximum you get another bonus. (if you double your wining of 15, 10 times and win all you will get 20.000 instead of 15.000, however wining so often in a row is very unlikely).
The truth is, that it sounds too good to be true.
I might calculated the overall EV wrong:
Here is the pay table: (game includes one joker)
five of a kind: 600
royal flush: 300
straight flush: 80
four of a kind: 40
full house: 12
fush: 9
straight: 7
three of a kind: 5
two pairs: 3
minibonus (jacks or better): 1
you are betting 2 coins not 1.
the minibonus is somewhat uncertain. It builds up to a maximum. If you then have a pair of jacks or better it might gives you the entire minibonus. The maximum was 20. After hitting 2-5 the minibonus again (seems to be random) I got 20 coins. I calculated an EV of 98% without minibonus.
before I left the gambling hall I looked at some more games. I found another maschine with even higher payouts. Unfortunately I was a little bit in a hurry and just made a snapshot with my handy to calculate the EV at home.
five of a kind: 5000
royal flush: 2500
straight flush: 1000
four of a kind: 250
full house: 60
fush: 45
straight: 35
three of a kind: 25
two pairs: 15
Pair (jacks or better): 5
I don't know more about this game so far may be the pair is just like the other game a minibonus with uncertain payout. Neither do I know the amount of coins to start the game. I gues that you have to bet 10 coins (like the first game), but that would result in an overall EV of 108,4% without the pair and in an EV of over 115% with the pair.
Like said that just sounds too good to be true.
I was today again in a small casino or lets say gambling building. There I first saw the game and calculated the odds. Without the bonus rounds it is 98%. I used the doubling rounds and guess what card appeared? Good luck it appeared 2 times in a row. The first time I got a straight flush with a joker and right after in the doubling round it appeared again. Knowing that the joker is also available in the doubling rounds allowing me to calculate the Bonus EV.
round1: 27 cards to win 26 to loose. EV: 1,018868
round2: 27 cards to win 25 to loose. EV: 1,038462
round3: 26 cards to win 25 to loose. EV: 1,019608
round4: 26 cards to win 24 to loose. EV: 1,04
round4: total EV (multiply EV 1-4): 1,121953 (or lets say 1,1 because the joker can be pulled and high winnings cant be doubled often)
....
calculated with joker, as soon the joker is pulled the bonus EV ist slightly reduced. I would stop after round 4 or as soon the joker is drawn and the amount of red/black cards is even. It is also possible to double up to 10 times. Low payouts can be doubled 10 times while higher winnings only 2-4 times. However if you reach the maximum you get another bonus. (if you double your wining of 15, 10 times and win all you will get 20.000 instead of 15.000, however wining so often in a row is very unlikely).
The truth is, that it sounds too good to be true.
I might calculated the overall EV wrong:
Here is the pay table: (game includes one joker)
five of a kind: 600
royal flush: 300
straight flush: 80
four of a kind: 40
full house: 12
fush: 9
straight: 7
three of a kind: 5
two pairs: 3
minibonus (jacks or better): 1
you are betting 2 coins not 1.
the minibonus is somewhat uncertain. It builds up to a maximum. If you then have a pair of jacks or better it might gives you the entire minibonus. The maximum was 20. After hitting 2-5 the minibonus again (seems to be random) I got 20 coins. I calculated an EV of 98% without minibonus.
before I left the gambling hall I looked at some more games. I found another maschine with even higher payouts. Unfortunately I was a little bit in a hurry and just made a snapshot with my handy to calculate the EV at home.
five of a kind: 5000
royal flush: 2500
straight flush: 1000
four of a kind: 250
full house: 60
fush: 45
straight: 35
three of a kind: 25
two pairs: 15
Pair (jacks or better): 5
I don't know more about this game so far may be the pair is just like the other game a minibonus with uncertain payout. Neither do I know the amount of coins to start the game. I gues that you have to bet 10 coins (like the first game), but that would result in an overall EV of 108,4% without the pair and in an EV of over 115% with the pair.
Like said that just sounds too good to be true.
