Help With Bonus Poker Progressive
Here is the pay table when I took a pic (I couldn't figure out how to get the pic on here)
-----------------------------Min ----- Max
Royal Flush----------------250 ---- 1062.65$
Straight Flush-------------50 --- 62.82 $
4 Aces----------------------80 --- 131.52 $
4 2s,3s,4s------------------40 --- 57.54 $
4 5s thru Kings------------25 --- 32.93 $
Full House----------------- 6 --- 30 -coins
Flush------------------------5 --- 25 -coins
Straight---------------------4 --- 20 -coins
3 of a kind------------------3 --- 15 - coins
Two Pair--------------------2 --- 10 - coins
Jacks or Better-------------1 --- 5 - coins
25 cent denomination.
Edit: Here's a short spreadsheet I threw together: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1RSxZ2plqHPcFAtQUVOc2hZN1k/edit?usp=sharing
Also, thanks for that spreadsheet. However, there is a mistake on the payout for Full House. You have it at 40 when it should be at 30. I don't know how to adjust that calculation. When would it become positive with this correction?
Edit: note - some cells are formulas. Be careful to not break the logic there.
edit 2: I show the return of your game (with your supplied progressives) is about 98.2%. If the other progressives stayed the same, the game would break even at a royal flush progressive meter of about $2,055.
Quote: JoePloppyThanks again. Would there be a point where it would call for a strategy change?
Yes. And I've done nothing to account for that. When we move from manipulating the work of others to doing actual math, we exit my domain:-)
Quote: rdw4potusI show a 100.32% return on the max column of your game, assuming the progressives are dollar denominated and the game is quarter denominated.
Edit: Here's a short spreadsheet I threw together: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1RSxZ2plqHPcFAtQUVOc2hZN1k/edit?usp=sharing
This spreadsheet assumed a 8/5 game. He said it was 6/5.
JB's strategy calculator gets 98.04%.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-37-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-5-d-6-d-26.344-d-46.032-d-105.216-d-50.256-d-850.12/
I would struggle to believe the game ever goes positive. A $2000 royal (with nothing else) would get it to 99.15%. $200 Aces (with nothing else) would be 98.5%. $100 2-4s with nothing else gets it to 98.99%. $50 5-Ks (with nothing else) gets it to 99.33%.
I was going to say this looks like 6 /5 bonus poker with 4oak's progressed a bit. I thought it cant be good and will rarely be a play if ever unless the meter move was great. I did a double take when i seen it was over 100% and was wondering what i was missing, then i scrolled down.Quote: tringlomaneThis spreadsheet assumed a 8/5 game. He said it was 6/5.
JB's strategy calculator gets 98.04%.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-37-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-2-d-3-d-4-d-5-d-6-d-26.344-d-46.032-d-105.216-d-50.256-d-850.12/
I would struggle to believe the game ever goes positive. A $2000 royal (with nothing else) would get it to 99.15%. $200 Aces (with nothing else) would be 98.5%. $100 2-4s with nothing else gets it to 98.99%. $50 5-Ks (with nothing else) gets it to 99.33%.
Quote: JoePloppyIs somebody able to help me calculate when(If, lol) this game becomes positive? Its a progressive game, but the top 5 payouts 'progress' also. I bought the Wizard's Video Poker App for help with play and calculations. I've tried to figure out how to do this, but since 5 payouts are progressive I can't figure it out. Are all progressives set up like this and I can go off a calculation that only calls for the Royal to hit a certain amount?
Here is the pay table when I took a pic (I couldn't figure out how to get the pic on here)
-----------------------------Min ----- Max
Royal Flush----------------250 ---- 1062.65$
Straight Flush-------------50 --- 62.82 $
4 Aces----------------------80 --- 131.52 $
4 2s,3s,4s------------------40 --- 57.54 $
4 5s thru Kings------------25 --- 32.93 $
Full House----------------- 6 --- 30 -coins
Flush------------------------5 --- 25 -coins
Straight---------------------4 --- 20 -coins
3 of a kind------------------3 --- 15 - coins
Two Pair--------------------2 --- 10 - coins
Jacks or Better-------------1 --- 5 - coins
25 cent denomination.
Joe, this game can't be fully analyzed until you clock the meters and get back to us with the meter speeds. To clock the meters:
Start with the bottom meter. Bet one coin at a time until the meter flips one penny. Then keep betting one coin at a time counting the number of games it takes to flip the meter one penny.
Judging from the meter numbers you put up it looks like the four aces meter is the strongest.
I messed around with the wizards calculator and with no strategy change it didn't look promising. These video poker progressives are linked in together with about 10 machines. I saw when calculating progressives you should be dividing it by the number of machines. Is this true also for VP? If so, the dream is pretty much over I think. Where would one look for solid strategy changes when these meters hit X? I was thinking of getting some VP software, but if this game is almost never beatable, it seems a waste.
I would have to get on the machines when no one else was on to get the most accurate meter rise. I could do this Monday morning when it opens.
What I do know is the meters are all independent and reset to a 'base' once hit. I've tried to find some sweet spots with the calculator. It seems a strategy deviation may help get it over 100% , could you share some information on this? I have read some on this, but would prefer some direction from experienced players such as yourself or other members.
Usually when your trying to get information, there's one last piece to fit it all together, for 1 easy payment of ....
Or it's just BS. Sometimes very convincing.
RF....................40000
SF......................9200
4 Aces...............5100
Small Quads.....1900
Generic Quads...610
You can key off of any one of the meters. The meter speeds will tell the story. Plays will develop with half percent meters. A hand would have to go about 3 cycles without hitting to put it on my playable number. The chance of a hand missing for 3 cycles is one in twenty. With lesser meter speeds like .333 or .25 you won't see many plays develop.
There is not much you can do to improve quads odds but when a royal play develops you should use an aggressive royal strategy that produces a royal about every 33,000 hands.
Quote: mickeycrimmI'm not at home and don't have access to my software so all I can give are ballpark frequencies:
RF....................40000
SF......................9200
4 Aces...............5100
Small Quads.....1900
Generic Quads...610
You can key off of any one of the meters. The meter speeds will tell the story. Plays will develop with half percent meters. A hand would have to go about 3 cycles without hitting to put it on my playable number. The chance of a hand missing for 3 cycles is one in twenty. With lesser meter speeds like .333 or .25 you won't see many plays develop.
There is not much you can do to improve quads odds but when a royal play develops you should use an aggressive royal strategy that produces a royal about every 33,000 hands.
I should have added that a playable number in the SF meter needs an aggressive strategy too.
I've been doing a lot of reading on the double up feature the past couple days. I've read most of the threads /articles I could find on WoV, WoO and others.
There seems to be no clear answer if this is a good idea or not.
Some say it doesn't change anything "in the long run".
--Since it's 50/50, will you "theoretically" end up in the same place?
I read the wizard comparing it to odds in craps, with 0% House Edge.
-- If, for example, I doubled once every chance I had. Would this reduce the 'overall/average' house edge on every bet? (Average from all button pushes)
If I press the 'Bet' button 1000 times with no doubles on this VP machine with a house edge of '5'%'
If I press 'bet/double' button 1000 times, is the average house edge less since there are multiple zero house edge bets? ie- '4%'?
Could a number (x) of doubles mathematically change your EV?
I saw someone on this site saying double 4 times, but I'm not sure if that sound.
I also read the wizard say it makes no difference
If I can squeeze out 1 or 2% from doubling, combined with progressive, I think It could make this game positive...
I could also be way off, so any input is appreciated.
My intuition tells me I might make my average bet have a lower house edge, while never reaching 100% that's where I hope the progressive fills the void.
NO...Quote: JoePloppyI wasn't able to check the meters today. Hopefully tomorrow.
I've been doing a lot of reading on the double up feature the past couple days. I've read most of the threads /articles I could find on WoV, WoO and others.
There seems to be no clear answer if this is a good idea or not.
Some say it doesn't change anything "in the long run".
--Since it's 50/50, will you "theoretically" end up in the same place?
I read the wizard comparing it to odds in craps, with 0% House Edge.
-- If, for example, I doubled once every chance I had. Would this reduce the 'overall/average' house edge on every bet? (Average from all button pushes)
If I press the 'Bet' button 1000 times with no doubles on this VP machine with a house edge of '5'%'
If I press 'bet/double' button 1000 times, is the average house edge less since there are multiple zero house edge bets? ie- '4%'?
Could a number (x) of doubles mathematically change your EV?
I saw someone on this site saying double 4 times, but I'm not sure if that sound.
I also read the wizard say it makes no difference
If I can squeeze out 1 or 2% from doubling, combined with progressive, I think It could make this game positive...
I could also be way off, so any input is appreciated.
My intuition tells me I might make my average bet have a lower house edge, while never reaching 100% that's where I hope the progressive fills the void.
You will gain nothing from doubling up. In most cases if you have a game that is +EV you don't want to double up. If you have a game that is -EV then you are better off using this feature, but it wont ADD any percentage to the game whatsoever. It will just be less hands you play at -ev.
With this progressive you are wanting to play. You will not be able to beat it unless the progressives are high enough or there is a special promotion. There is a good chance since its a 6/5 they have made the meter movement better then the average progressive. Whats the players card like? Cash back? Do you get bounce back free play for playing?
I know you really want this to be playable somehow. From the sound of it, its doubtful you will get many plays on this, it's probably not worth the time and gas checking it. I would look at other games or places.
Quote: AxelWolfNO...
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:(
Lmao. Thanks for the input. I follow you on all points except this :
Quote:...it won't add any percentage to the game whatsoever. It will just be less hands you play at -ev
Wouldn't that make the average over the total amount of hands rise? More hands at zero ev ...
Or am I out to lunch somehow comparing apples to oranges?
I'm not sure about all the benefits yet, as I don't play with a card. I've been just watching these machines so far. I'm going to test the meters out next time.
Are there progressives that is more likely to give out a royal before" X"$, for tax form reasons. I've read about this but not sure of its hogwash.
If you are playing with an edge, the last thing in the world you want to do is increase your variance. You should never make a bet if you don't get something for it, and, if it's 0EV, you have to ask what you are getting. I am not saying that there are no good reasons to do this -- I've heard a few justifications, although, to be honest, a lot of them make me wonder if these are just action junkies who are looking for an excuse to gamble more. But the point is, you should have a very, very good reason for using the feature.
If you are playing for fun, you should double up if you want to. It doesn't matter; you will lose all your money anyway, so the only goal should be to have a much fun as possible before you run out of money. If you like the idea of a smaller chance of winning, but a bigger win when you do win, then double up is the way to go.
They may set a machine to pay an amount Just under the taxable amount. IE the royal is NOT progressive but it pays $1,199
Doubling up is Break even period. It would be like you playing a hand on your machine and if you win. I walk up and flip you for double what you won, or you give what you won to me. However, the hand you just played cost you 5%.
Why don't you play with a card? That's silly. I assume if you don't play with a card, you don't know if the casino has any promotions, drawing or something that may make this worth playing. Whats the name of the casino, where is it at?
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
If you are playing with an edge, the last thing in the world you want to do is increase your variance. You should never make a bet if you don't get something for it, and, if it's 0EV, you have to ask what you are getting. I am not saying that there are no good reasons to do this -- I've heard a few justifications, although, to be honest, a lot of them make me wonder if these are just action junkies who are looking for an excuse to gamble more. But the point is, you should have a very, very good reason for using the feature.
What if you are playing an otherwise negative expectation game, but with a points multiplier day such that the points converted into Free Play puts you at +EV and the doubles count towards your points?
Quote: Mission146What if you are playing an otherwise negative expectation game, but with a points multiplier day such that the points converted into Free Play puts you at +EV and the doubles count towards your points?
Then the bet is not 0EV.
Do you know of any place that gives you points for double-ups? If so, then the double-up is a +EV play and should be made up to the limits of the Kelly Criterion, given your bankroll, just like any other +EV bet.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThen the bet is not 0EV.
Do you know of any place that gives you points for double-ups? If so, then the double-up is a +EV play and should be made up to the limits of the Kelly Criterion, given your bankroll, just like any other +EV bet.
Most systems award points based on coin-in. The double up feature does not affect the coin-in meter. A few systems still award points on the coin-out meter. In that case it might make sense to double up.
Quote: DRichMost systems award points based on coin-in. The double up feature does not affect the coin-in meter. A few systems still award points on the coin-out meter. In that case it might make sense to double up.
What is the coin-out meter? How much you win?
So, if you lose, you lose your money AND get no comps? That does not sound good for business....
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhat is the coin-out meter? How much you win?
So, if you lose, you lose your money AND get no comps? That does not sound good for business....
Yes, it is every time your credit meter goes up.
Quote: DRichYes, it is every time your credit meter goes up.
That sounds like a really bad system. I understand that even losers will win some spins (so they are not getting nothing) but under-comping losing players seems like a terrible idea. Of course in the end it all averages out (in slots; not so much in VP) but the last thing that a casino wants to do is explain long-term results to a gambler.
In VP, bad players would actually be getting less comps.
So thanks for helping me figure things out everyone.
I think my only hope is double ups count for points,etc.
Mission, in some of the threads I was reading you had some "views/strategy" on doubling up. Most of them were from a year+ago, are they the same?
Could you comment on doubling up?
I know one of the things discussed is doubling up to a royal type payout. Odds 1 in 1024.
Quote: JoePloppy
I think my only hope is double ups count for points,etc.
Mission, in some of the threads I was reading you had some "views/strategy" on doubling up. Most of them were from a year+ago, are they the same?
Could you comment on doubling up?
I know one of the things discussed is doubling up to a royal type payout. Odds 1 in 1024.
Right, I don't really do that anymore because Double-Ups don't increase the points on that system, anymore. They used to. I don't know if there are any that still do, or not.
The only thing that I maintain is that, if you are playing a -EV game even after considering points and everything else, that doubling-up reduces your house edge on a, "Money-Exposed," basis. It doesn't reduce your House Edge on the game for the same reasons that I maintain Taking/Laying Odds fails to reduce the House Edge on a Line Bet in Craps, but it reduces the edge on the sum of your money exposed.
Quote: Mission146Right, I don't really do that anymore because Double-Ups don't increase the points on that system, anymore. They used to. I don't know if there are any that still do, or not.
The only thing that I maintain is that, if you are playing a -EV game even after considering points and everything else, that doubling-up reduces your house edge on a, "Money-Exposed," basis. It doesn't reduce your House Edge on the game for the same reasons that I maintain Taking/Laying Odds fails to reduce the House Edge on a Line Bet in Craps, but it reduces the edge on the sum of your money exposed.
Thanks. Yes, "money exposed" was what I meant by my pressing the button 1000 times reference.
It seems like reducing money exposed is a good decision. Only in -EV.
So, should I not double because I should not be playing a -EV game?
While I do have fun gambling, I'm more interested in winning.
I'm just curios if there is anything to doubling. I trust Axelwolf when he says don't double, just looking at all possibilities.
Am I correct in thinking reducing "money exposed" by doubling only always bring it closer to 100% never getting there?
I suppose the only way is if the double ups counted as coin in.
Quote: JoePloppyThanks. Yes, "money exposed" was what I meant by my pressing the button 1000 times reference.
It seems like reducing money exposed is a good decision. Only in -EV.
So, should I not double because I should not be playing a -EV game?
While I do have fun gambling, I'm more interested in winning.
I'm just curios if there is anything to doubling. I trust Axelwolf when he says don't double, just looking at all possibilities.
Am I correct in thinking reducing "money exposed" by doubling only always bring it closer to 100% never getting there?
I suppose the only way is if the double ups counted as coin in.
Expectation is additive. A fair bet has 0 expectation. You can add 0 to the expectation of your previous bet all you want; it's not going to change.
Quote: JoePloppyThanks. Yes, "money exposed" was what I meant by my pressing the button 1000 times reference.
It seems like reducing money exposed is a good decision. Only in -EV.
So, should I not double because I should not be playing a -EV game?
While I do have fun gambling, I'm more interested in winning.
I'm just curios if there is anything to doubling. I trust Axelwolf when he says don't double, just looking at all possibilities.
Am I correct in thinking reducing "money exposed" by doubling only always bring it closer to 100% never getting there?
I suppose the only way is if the double ups counted as coin in.
I think you might have misunderstood what I was trying to say, or perhaps I didn't communicate it very well.
Let's assume for a second that you are going to play through $50 on Video Poker, at a negative expectation, and you are either going to win $1,000+ or lose the $50. What I am suggesting is, after you have won a hand, if you choose to Double-Up, then you are risking that money at an overall expectation of 0% as it is a fair bet. You will neither win nor lose in the long run, considering only the Double-Ups.
For what I mean by, "Money exposed," let's say that you only had $1.25, enough to play one hand:
You get dealt a Pair of Jacks, hold them, and they don't improve.
Now, you can double-up or play another hand. If you double-up, then the House Edge by money exposed is only the House Edge of the hand you played, and the Expected Loss applies only to the hand you played, so you bet $1.25 at -x% and $1.25 at 0%, so the HE by money exposed is (1.25 * x% expressed as a decimal)/2.50. If you play another hand, the House Edge by money exposed is the same as the House Edge of the game, ergo, $2.50 * x% expressed as a decimal.
It's just a combined House Edge, because there are two separate bets. If I play $5 on Roulette and then make a $5 Pass Line bet on Craps, my money exposed is $10, and the Combined House Edge of my action is (.0526+.0141)/2 = .03335 or 3.335%
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceExpectation is additive. A fair bet has 0 expectation. You can add 0 to the expectation of your previous bet all you want; it's not going to change.
That's certainly true, it has no impact on the edge of the previous bet, but assuming that the same money (i.e. the result of the win) will be re-exposed to the negative expectation (if one is, indeed, playing -EV VP) then it is mathematically better to expose that money to the 0%, instead.
Quote: Mission146That's certainly true, it has no impact on the edge of the previous bet, but assuming that the same money (i.e. the result of the win) will be re-exposed to the negative expectation (if one is, indeed, playing -EV VP) then it is mathematically better to expose that money to the 0%, instead.
Mathematically better than what? The expectation is the same.
If you are playing to get to a certain win goal, then, yes, it's better. If you're going to sit down and play 1000 hands, it doesn't change the expectation.
But, really, I was responding to Joe's question about whether it could ever go above 100% expectation. This is something that a lot of people seem to not understand. If you treat the full amount of the double-up as "money bet" then your percentage expected loss goes down only because the denominator (total amount of money bet) goes up. The absolute expected loss does not change -- it just gets 0 added to it.
I am not saying that there are not times when double-up would be a good thing. Your example about getting points for the bet is one. I can think of a few others. But, generally, when playing with an edge, you do NOT want to take on variance for free. Variance is the enemy. You need to be properly compensated to take it on.
You could argue that if you are playing without an edge, the opposite is true.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
If you are playing to get to a certain win goal, then, yes, it's better.
Can you elaborate on this. Is this only in -EV?
I'm more concerned with winning X than playing X number of hands.
Quote: JoePloppyCan you elaborate on this. Is this only in -EV?
I'm more concerned with winning X than playing X number of hands.
Yes, for -EV.
If you are playing a game with negative expectation, then bigger swings make it more likely that you will win a lot. They also make it more likely that you will lose a lot. In the end, you are still playing a negative expectation game, though.
Personally, I would not think of the double-up feature as adding to the total bet, and thus changing the house edge at all. If you decide a priori which wins you will double up and which ones you won't, all you are doing is changing the paytable to a higher-variance paytable with the same expectation.
For example, suppose you are playing $1 jacks or better, where any 4-of-a-kind pays $125. If you decide that you will double up any 4OAK once, you are really playing a game where half your 4OAKs pay $250 and half of them pay 0. So it's just like increasing the 4OAK payout to $250 but decreasing the frequency.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceMathematically better than what? The expectation is the same.
Mathematically better than using the money to play another hand!
Quote:If you are playing to get to a certain win goal, then, yes, it's better. If you're going to sit down and play 1000 hands, it doesn't change the expectation.
That, too.
Quote:But, really, I was responding to Joe's question about whether it could ever go above 100% expectation. This is something that a lot of people seem to not understand. If you treat the full amount of the double-up as "money bet" then your percentage expected loss goes down only because the denominator (total amount of money bet) goes up. The absolute expected loss does not change -- it just gets 0 added to it.
I understood your point, I was referring to the Expected Loss as a percentage of overall action.
Quote:I am not saying that there are not times when double-up would be a good thing. Your example about getting points for the bet is one. I can think of a few others. But, generally, when playing with an edge, you do NOT want to take on variance for free. Variance is the enemy. You need to be properly compensated to take it on.
You could argue that if you are playing without an edge, the opposite is true.
No, you would not want to do it when playing with an edge. Not only is there the Variance, but then it reduces the Player Edge as a percentage of overall action.
I can and do argue that for the last sentence, lacking high enough denoms to, "Take a shot," this is the VP equivalent of the, "Bold Play," strategy.
Quote: Mission146No, you would not want to do it when playing with an edge. Not only is there the Variance, but then it reduces the Player Edge as a percentage of overall action.
Well, if you consider the double-up to be money bet, then taking it actually lowers your variance per unit bet. But that's silly, confusing, and comparing apples-to-oranges.
I don't think that edge as a percentage of overall action, on its own, is a good measure of anything, to be honest. It can be useful to compute things in a flat-betting situation, but, for most advantage plays, I think that more sophisticated measures are more useful. I think that Kelly fraction is the best overall measure -- how much of your bankroll can you afford to wager on a single decision? It tells the whole story (assuming that you can bet as much as you want, or at least, as much as you can afford to).
Quote: JoePloppyIs somebody able to help me calculate when(If, lol) this game becomes positive? Its a progressive game, but the top 5 payouts 'progress' also. I bought the Wizard's Video Poker App for help with play and calculations. I've tried to figure out how to do this, but since 5 payouts are progressive I can't figure it out. Are all progressives set up like this and I can go off a calculation that only calls for the Royal to hit a certain amount?
Here is the pay table when I took a pic (I couldn't figure out how to get the pic on here)
-----------------------------Min ----- Max
Royal Flush----------------250 ---- 1062.65$
Straight Flush-------------50 --- 62.82 $
4 Aces----------------------80 --- 131.52 $
4 2s,3s,4s------------------40 --- 57.54 $
4 5s thru Kings------------25 --- 32.93 $
Full House----------------- 6 --- 30 -coins
Flush------------------------5 --- 25 -coins
Straight---------------------4 --- 20 -coins
3 of a kind------------------3 --- 15 - coins
Two Pair--------------------2 --- 10 - coins
Jacks or Better-------------1 --- 5 - coins
25 cent denomination.
On IGT machines, progressives at $1 and lower denominations (and possibly some higher denominations), the progressive prizes are always rounded UP to the nearest coin. For example, Four 5s thru Kings would pay $33 which is 132 coins. Four 2s, 3s, 4s would pay $57.75 which is 231 coins, and so on. This makes the max-bet paytable 5-10-15-20-25-30-132-231-527-252-4251. You can enter that into the Wizard's video poker calculator to determine the optimal-strategy return, which in this case is 98.0637%.
Quote: tringlomaneI want to see Mission play a -EV VP game with "Double Up" available!
I don't recall seeing the feature on the games I played in Vegas, and unfortunately, you won't see it happen here. I don't play unless I am at an (admittedly, very thin) advantage.
