SupaJax almost positive
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March 9th, 2014 at 3:16:33 PM
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For those who don't know, SupaJax is a video poker game available at Microgaming casinos. It can be found in the download casino only, not the Flash version. The game is $1 denom, so a $5 total bet. My fellow Americans will be unhappy to learn that every Microgaming casino blocks US players.
The game itself is like Jacks or Better but there is a 53rd SupaJax card. This card is only useful in the top hand of four jacks plus the SupaJax card. Otherwise, it is just a junk card.
The following table shows the return for a hypothetical 10483.4 unit jackpot, which equates to $52,417. As you can see, the return is 100%.
The jackpot today is at $50,732.
Keep your eye on the meter. If you play, I wish you positive variance.
The game itself is like Jacks or Better but there is a 53rd SupaJax card. This card is only useful in the top hand of four jacks plus the SupaJax card. Otherwise, it is just a junk card.
The following table shows the return for a hypothetical 10483.4 unit jackpot, which equates to $52,417. As you can see, the return is 100%.
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four jacks + SupaJax | 10483.4 | 18,695,979 | 0.000009 | 0.095730 |
| Royal flush | 600 | 43,362,538 | 0.000021 | 0.012708 |
| Straight flush | 50 | 194,112,281 | 0.000095 | 0.004740 |
| Four of a kind | 25 | 4,495,498,893 | 0.002196 | 0.054893 |
| Full house | 7 | 21,246,179,607 | 0.010377 | 0.072640 |
| Flush | 5 | 20,711,348,556 | 0.010116 | 0.050579 |
| Straight | 4 | 20,442,944,043 | 0.009985 | 0.039939 |
| 3 of a kind | 3 | 146,574,801,270 | 0.071591 | 0.214772 |
| Two pair | 2 | 247,651,076,826 | 0.120958 | 0.241917 |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 434,219,441,337 | 0.212083 | 0.212083 |
| Nothing | 0 | 1,151,807,998,770 | 0.562570 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 2,047,405,460,100 | 1.000000 | 1.000000 |
The jackpot today is at $50,732.
Keep your eye on the meter. If you play, I wish you positive variance.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 9th, 2014 at 3:57:34 PM
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Is there a definitive site for tracking online jackpots? In the olden days, I used slotcharts dot com, but that's geo-blocked now.
Many other tracking sites exist, but the data seem to vary from one to another.
I see values quoted in euros, but I'm not sure how they handle currency conversions. Fifty thousand dollars is worth substantially less than fifty thousand euros.
Many other tracking sites exist, but the data seem to vary from one to another.
I see values quoted in euros, but I'm not sure how they handle currency conversions. Fifty thousand dollars is worth substantially less than fifty thousand euros.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 9th, 2014 at 4:00:02 PM
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Edits to strategy? Specifically when should the SuperJax card be held? Is it plus 1 jack enough?
With is the drop in RF payout meaningful enough to change strategy?
With is the drop in RF payout meaningful enough to change strategy?
March 9th, 2014 at 4:31:52 PM
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Quote: gpac1377Is there a definitive site for tracking online jackpots? In the olden days, I used slotcharts dot com, but that's geo-blocked now.
It is still there. I just visited through my UK proxy.
Quote:I see values quoted in euros, but I'm not sure how they handle currency conversions. Fifty thousand dollars is worth substantially less than fifty thousand euros.
I think the jackpot is the same number regardless of the currency. So, once it gets positive I would play in UK Pounds, if you have the choice. At most places you choose your currency when you join and are stuck with it.
Quote: endermikeEdits to strategy? Specifically when should the SuperJax card be held? Is it plus 1 jack enough?
With is the drop in RF payout meaningful enough to change strategy?
No idea. All I have seen on the topic is this strategy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 9th, 2014 at 4:49:48 PM
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Is it just me, or is this one of the dumbest VP variants I have ever run across? The card is total garbage except for the jackpot. Making it just a huge variance progressive game. Best of luck to anyone with the guts to try it.
March 9th, 2014 at 5:22:29 PM
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Quote: WizardNo idea. All I have seen on the topic is this strategy.
How did you figure out the frequencies and return without figuring out the strategy?
March 9th, 2014 at 5:31:55 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHow did you figure out the frequencies and return without figuring out the strategy?
The computer figures out the optimal strategy for each hand by brute force.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 9th, 2014 at 5:36:44 PM
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Quote: WizardThe computer figures out the optimal strategy for each hand by brute force.
Oh, I see.
March 9th, 2014 at 5:37:10 PM
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I thought They provided it or something like that....why would you need to have a strategy to figure it out anyways? I hope you don't think that's sarcastic or a dumb question. I have never done anything like that from scratch, so I don't know if first you have to figure out a correct play then come up with a percentage.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: WizardNo idea. All I have seen on the topic is this strategy.
How did you figure out the frequencies and return without figuring out the strategy?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 9th, 2014 at 5:39:10 PM
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My question was addressed.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 9th, 2014 at 5:39:53 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI thought They provided it or something like that....why would you need to have a strategy to figure it out anyways? I hope you don't think that's sarcastic or a dumb question. I have never done anything like that from scratch, so I don't know if first you have to figure out a correct play then come up with a percentage.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: WizardNo idea. All I have seen on the topic is this strategy.
How did you figure out the frequencies and return without figuring out the strategy?
From his reply, I guess he did technically figure out the strategy -- he just didn't consolidate it into a readable form and output it.
My point was just that the strategy dictates the frequencies (which dictates the return) so it seems that the first step has to be to figure out the strategy. But in this case, "strategy" just means a list of plays that you make for each hand (ie, a strategy that is (52 ch 5) lines long), not something that you would actually use to play.
March 9th, 2014 at 5:42:55 PM
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yea i understood that i just didn't know how to communicate quickly and accuratelyQuote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: AxelWolfI thought They provided it or something like that....why would you need to have a strategy to figure it out anyways? I hope you don't think that's sarcastic or a dumb question. I have never done anything like that from scratch, so I don't know if first you have to figure out a correct play then come up with a percentage.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: WizardNo idea. All I have seen on the topic is this strategy.
How did you figure out the frequencies and return without figuring out the strategy?
From his reply, I guess he did technically figure out the strategy -- he just didn't consolidate it into a readable form and output it.
My point was just that the strategy dictates the frequencies (which dictates the return) so it seems that the first step has to be to figure out the strategy. But in this case, "strategy" just means a list of plays that you make for each hand (ie, a strategy that is (52 ch 5) lines long), not something that you would actually use to play.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
March 9th, 2014 at 6:07:17 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneIs it just me, or is this one of the dumbest VP variants I have ever run across? The card is total garbage except for the jackpot. Making it just a huge variance progressive game. Best of luck to anyone with the guts to try it.
I feel like the card should at least act like another jack to help create more winning hands.
March 9th, 2014 at 7:58:18 PM
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Here is the slow way to analyze video poker.
1. Cycle through all 2,598,960 possible hands on the deal.
2. There are 2^5=32 ways to play each of them. Cycle through all of them.
3. For each play, cycle through all the possible combinations of 47 replacement cards. Score each result. Take the average score for any given play.
4. The play the hand according to the play with the greatest expected value.
5. After doing this for every hand, output the results.
Doing it this way will take hours. There are lots of shortcuts that can get the time down to about a second.
My point is that there is no strategy, the computer figures out the right play for each hand by averaging the possible results of each play of each hand and going with the one that wins the most.
1. Cycle through all 2,598,960 possible hands on the deal.
2. There are 2^5=32 ways to play each of them. Cycle through all of them.
3. For each play, cycle through all the possible combinations of 47 replacement cards. Score each result. Take the average score for any given play.
4. The play the hand according to the play with the greatest expected value.
5. After doing this for every hand, output the results.
Doing it this way will take hours. There are lots of shortcuts that can get the time down to about a second.
My point is that there is no strategy, the computer figures out the right play for each hand by averaging the possible results of each play of each hand and going with the one that wins the most.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 9th, 2014 at 8:19:58 PM
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Quote: Wizard
Quote: The Site
33. Jack
34. JQ
35. JQK
Can anyone give me an idea of why the strategy would list 34 and 35? I would think they are dominated.
March 9th, 2014 at 8:41:10 PM
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Quote: endermikeCan anyone give me an idea of why the strategy would list 34 and 35? I would think they are dominated.
When I make a VP strategy I never indicate dominated hands. However, this writer evidently goes. I'm not saying my way is better, but it is the way video poker strategy is usually done.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 9th, 2014 at 8:49:08 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm not saying my way is better
I'll say it. Your way is better :)
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 18th, 2014 at 7:08:16 PM
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In case anyone is wondering, the jackpot was hit four days ago for £55,180.
A good site to keep track of it is http://www.jackpotgraphs.com/graphs/supajax.html.
A good site to keep track of it is http://www.jackpotgraphs.com/graphs/supajax.html.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
