Progressive Strategy

Progressive strategy needs it's own thread. I'm not out to get tournamentking but he has made some statements I disagree with. This one in particular "Meters might be important to video poker AP''s but not to slot AP's." First of all I am both a VP and a slot AP. He also stated that he hit an $82,000 slot progressive on a $10 denom bank in Bellagio. He also stated that he had seen the progressive hit before, at 68K and 56K. I have no problem with these statements. He also stated that Bob Dancer was on the bank when he hit the progressive. This is a very telling statement. Bob Dancer is pure AP. He wouldn't have been there just goofball gambling. So I think TK was on an advantage play here.

But the statement that the meter speed on slots means nothing, just the amount in the meter, is just not true. TK stated that he studied this bank for some time before throwing down on it. But he gave us limited information pertaining to this bank of machines. What he didn't tell us is where the meter reset to, what the meter speed was, and how many coins you had to bet. So all I can do is a "what if" and make up some numbers.

Part of the up front strategy on progressives is clocking the meter. You simply have to know. On the Bellagio progressive let's assume you have to bet two coins ($20) per spin, the meter speed is 4%, and the progressive resets at $20,000.

On the first jackpot TK saw go, 68K, the meter moved 48K. So 48K is 4% of what? That's a $1,200,000 wager. Divide that number by $20 and the result is the progressive hit at 60,000 spins. We can't write that number in stone because of the variable that short coin play presents. But's it a good enough ballpark.

On the second jackpot TK saw go, 56K, the meter moved 36K. With a 4% meter that's a $900,000 wager. At $20 per spin the progressive hit at 45,000 spins.

On the progressive he hit, 82K, the meter moved $62,000. With a 4% meter that would be a $1,550,000 wager or 77,500 spins.

Short coiners are the variable but this is three pieces of empirical evidence you would not have if you didn't know the meter speed.

Mickey, I wish I understood what this means?

I don't see a meter on these darn things.

The only thing I think I understand here is the short coin play, is that players that just play for a little while and leave?

I've only recently started playing vp so I'm pretty ignorant. But after reading here I will search to see if I can find a progressive vp machine.

Does a progressive vp machine have to have many hands being played at the same time or is there some other indication like a meter and nomenclature stating that the machine is progressive?

I've been playing tripledouble bonus quarter's any suggestions? I've never ever had a royal or even a straight flush.

Quote: petroglyph

Mickey, I wish I understood what this means?

I don't see a meter on these darn things.

The only thing I think I understand here is the short coin play, is that players that just play for a little while and leave?

I've only recently started playing vp so I'm pretty ignorant. But after reading here I will search to see if I can find a progressive vp machine.

Does a progressive vp machine have to have many hands being played at the same time or is there some other indication like a meter and nomenclature stating that the machine is progressive?

I've been playing tripledouble bonus quarter's any suggestions? I've never ever had a royal or even a straight flush.

Petroglyph, you have asked some very interesting questions. I'm drinking tonight so I know my answer will not be complete. But I will work on it while I am sober. I hope this thread goes on for a very long time. I will tell my history in progressive play....and how I handled the situation, the things I thought about, the strategies I devised.

But for your first question, there are esoteric terms that AP's use that maybe the public doesn't know what they mean. A "short coiner" is a person who bets less than the minimum to qualify for a jackpot. In the case of the Bellagio progressive that I analyzed, as much as I could, a short coiner would be a person who only bets one coin per spin. This type of player would put 4 cents per spin into the meter, but doesn't qualify for the jackpot because he/she is not betting the two coins it takes to qualify for the jackpot. So when guestimating the odds of a top line hit you always have to take short coiners into consideration. If I determine that no more than 60,000 spins made when the jackpot hit, then the true number is probably, because of the short coiners, just a little bit south of 60,000.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Progressive strategy needs it's own thread. I'm not out to get tournamentking but he has made some statements I disagree with. This one in particular "Meters might be important to video poker AP''s but not to slot AP's." First of all I am both a VP and a slot AP. He also stated that he hit an $82,000 slot progressive on a $10 denom bank in Bellagio. He also stated that he had seen the progressive hit before, at 68K and 56K. I have no problem with these statements. He also stated that Bob Dancer was on the bank when he hit the progressive. This is a very telling statement. Bob Dancer is pure AP. He wouldn't have been there just goofball gambling. So I think TK was on an advantage play here.

But the statement that the meter speed on slots means nothing, just the amount in the meter, is just not true. TK stated that he studied this bank for some time before throwing down on it. But he gave us limited information pertaining to this bank of machines. What he didn't tell us is where the meter reset to, what the meter speed was, and how many coins you had to bet. So all I can do is a "what if" and make up some numbers.

Part of the up front strategy on progressives is clocking the meter. You simply have to know. On the Bellagio progressive let's assume you have to bet two coins ($20) per spin, the meter speed is 4%, and the progressive resets at $20,000.

On the first jackpot TK saw go, 68K, the meter moved 48K. So 48K is 4% of what? That's a $1,200,000 wager. Divide that number by $20 and the result is the progressive hit at 60,000 spins. We can't write that number in stone because of the variable that short coin play presents. But's it a good enough ballpark.

On the second jackpot TK saw go, 56K, the meter moved 36K. With a 4% meter that's a $900,000 wager. At $20 per spin the progressive hit at 45,000 spins.

On the progressive he hit, 82K, the meter moved $62,000. With a 4% meter that would be a $1,550,000 wager or 77,500 spins.

Short coiners are the variable but this is three pieces of empirical evidence you would not have if you didn't know the meter speed.

He basically said, He dose it like i thought he was doing it. He looks at progressive machines and believes they have to hit by a certain amount. I have seen this many times in the past, people will start playing machines once it gets to a number that they have never seen it go over. They believe its ready to hit and the machine is magically going to give you the jackpot because it's ready. They don't understand the reason they never see it get that high, because the odds of it getting that high with out hitting are very rare.

My cousin's wife worked at a 7-11 with a horrible Video poker progressive and a very bad meter. She would call me up when it got to $1550 and tell me I should come play it, because it never gets over $1600. I tried and tried to explain it was no good and why, but she would not have it, she insisted no one has ever seen it over $1600 and it was going to hit soon.