Actual Percentage for Average Video Poker Players

9/6 JoB has a payout of 99.5 percent or so with perfect play. However, let's face it, most people that you see playing video poker are not playing optimally. Many have no clue what they are doing. Some are very drunk while playing. And of course, there are some "good" players who may make the occasional mistake or mishold a card or something similar.

So what do you think the actual percentage is for an average 9/6 JoB video poker player? 99 percent? 98 percent%. Much lower then that? Does anyone keep records od this?

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Many jurisdictions assume about a 3% difference from optimal. Because of this, there are jurisdictions that require 80% return on non skill games while requiring 83% on skill games.

I have access to actual play information on our games at a handful of casinos, and our poker games pay about 2% less than optimal. This 2% is with autohold! Many people don't trust it and they change the hold.

What is auto hold CrystalMath?

Your information is very interesting. So this means that for a 9/6 JoB, the casino's advantage on average is 97.5 percent?

Quote: Juyemura

" ...with perfect play. However, let's face it, most people that you see playing are not playing optimally.

Every game enjoys more than just a technical and mathematically correct house-edge. Every game seems to have a "practical house edge" that is an amalgam of the various foibles that may be involved.

Ignorance of the game.
Alcohol.
The effect of females, be they casino employees or not.
The "Vacation Effect" which even applies to very brief staycations. Sort of a "Go For Broke" attitude. Celebrate. You only live once and after all, it is "Vegas Baby, Vegas"!! So press the bet appropriately.
Social commitments: meeting someone for dinner, etc. crimps playing style.
Social Gaming: As an individual player you might consider your own hand but as half of a couple you are considering her hand as well and are therefore distracted. Also, you tend to get dragged around to play with her and that means games you've never heard of and never want to hear about but have to sit down and pretend to enjoy.

All of these subtle influences affect the realistic house edge.

Quote: CrystalMath

I have access to actual play information on our games at a handful of casinos, and our poker games pay about 2% less than optimal. This 2% is with autohold! Many people don't trust it and they change the hold.

What? People are that bad?

And is this a live or online casino? I have never seen a Class III video poker machine with autohold activated.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I made a misplay yesterday and got lucky. Was dealt a pair of 2's but I missed one of the hold buttons and quickly hit draw holding only one 2. I ended up drawing four 10's for quads. Go figure. Anyway I hardly ever seen peoole play JoB as they like DW of DDB. I'd put it in the 99% range.

Yeah, misplays like this will happen more often with newbs too, and those errors cost a lot. In DDB, I consistently see players with 2 pair that includes Jacks, Kings, or Queens toss the other pair and go for quads instead. I am pretty sure I am in the minority of playing this hand correctly. Even at 7/5 DDB this is a mistake (10.46 cents at $1.25/hand). At 9/6 quarters, its a 29.13 cent mistake every time. Other players will hold AK, AQ, or AJ offsuit, instead of just the Ace in DDB (my g/f is bad for that one because I have ~taught her DDB and JoB). It's a much smaller error, but comes up a lot more frequently.

So 99% of optimal is probably wishful thinking, especially all the clueless randoms that play DDB, and its also a more difficult strategy than JoB. Hell, when I try to speed practice with the Wizards VP app, if I'm klutzy enough, I am occasionally lower than 99.7% payback accuracy, maybe 99.85% on average. And I play a lot of video poker...blah I just tried bonus deuces wild right now, and 99.8% over 80 hands until I accidentally double-clicked a dealt 3 of a kind and tossed it...lol

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

There is a 9/6 JoB auto hold at Motorcity Casino and it DOESN'T quite use optimal strategy.

Interesting. I wonder what their reasoning is for
having the auth-hold. I can understand if that is
the law ( West Virginia ? ), but up in Motown
I don't get it.

deleted

One additional factor...some players play less than max coin and hit royals

I am nearly certain the South Dakota video lottery (video poker machines not located in Deadwood or reservations) are required to auto hold. They make tons of errors too. I own a Pot of Gold that has an option to toggle auto hold and it makes mistakes too.

I have a lot of experience in the "locals" market in Las Vegas. Our customers play on average just over 1% below theoretical. The tourists generally play closer to 3% below theoretical.

Quote: tringlomane

What? People are that bad?

And is this a live or online casino? I have never seen a Class III video poker machine with autohold activated.

Yes, people are that bad, and the autohold is very close, but not perfect. Our games are primarily in MT, where it is standard, but not required, to have autohold. Poker is not very popular in MT and there are some off the wall games, so that probably adds to the discrepancy.

I see much more Keno and video slots played in MT.

Quote: CrystalMath

I have access to actual play information on our games at a handful of casinos, and our poker games pay about 2% less than optimal. This 2% is with autohold! Many people don't trust it and they change the hold.

I have a gaming patent and I have worked with a "number" of gaming companies. In the first company that I worked with, I had access to the PAR sheets. As for video-poker, the industry standard "field trial" number is generally 2% less than optimal due short coin and non-computer perfect play.

As for the OP's original question, I would be shocked if the number is 0.75% to 1% off computer play. The difference between short-coin and full-pay for 9/6 JOB is 98.3735% vs 99.5439% IMPLYING the balance of the 2% difference due to non-computer perfect play, respectively.

Now if the OP had asked about DDBP with the 2,000 coin secondary jackpot, you might have a larger difference between optimal and actual returns due to people chasing for the 2K award.

CrystalMath, have you ever publicly disclosed which "company" you work for? I am just curious. As for me, I am currently licensing my game with IGT and due to the "confi" clause, I really can't talk too much about my situation.

Quote: DRich

I see much more Keno and video slots played in MT.

I had a friend that chased an opportunity in MT only to find out that the (undisclosed) game got changed versus information found on the internet. I found the game too late since it was a design mistake and the manufacturer fixed it.

Quote: CrystalMath

I have access to actual play information on our games at a handful of casinos, and our poker games pay about 2% less than optimal. This 2% is with autohold! Many people don't trust it and they change the hold.

Hopefully this is not too off topic, but does anyone have stats such as RF, SF, or 4K('s) cycle lengths for the "average player". I realize that different games will produce different nuances - just trying to get a handle on what effect the sub-optimal "strategies" alluded to above have on VP progressives. I would imagine that the players who play strong to certain hands would play even stronger to those hands when there is a progressive attached, even at levels close to reset.

It seems that I should account for how others are playing in order to determine the optimal play point for any given VP progressive or set of progressives, as they are the ones pumping up the meter to my play number or hitting it before it gets high enough for me to play.

Years ago Fiesta had a bank of $1 loose dw that was I believe 100.9 the auto hold played a few hands wrong, exact details are fogy.

I recently played at a small casino like Dottys . When the drop crew came in, I watched as he keyed the machines to get a count and change the bill validaters. they were multi games however most of the VP had good pays. 7 of the machines were between 94.1 - 95% OUCH!
I was trying to ask the guy some questions and to get him to turn on the double up (wink wink) He was really rude and said you need to move son. The Next night I had a large hand pay the casino could not cover. Guess who came to help pay me? saved me a cnote.

Quote: camapl

Hopefully this is not too off topic, but does anyone have stats such as RF, SF, or 4K('s) cycle lengths for the "average player". I realize that different games will produce different nuances - just trying to get a handle on what effect the sub-optimal "strategies" alluded to above have on VP progressives. I would imagine that the players who play strong to certain hands would play even stronger to those hands when there is a progressive attached, even at levels close to reset.

It seems that I should account for how others are playing in order to determine the optimal play point for any given VP progressive or set of progressives, as they are the ones pumping up the meter to my play number or hitting it before it gets high enough for me to play.

Concrete stats, no, I do not, but roughly speaking, 4K won't change much, people will always hold pairs and trips. Average players will get less SFs because they will ignore many 3 card SF holds like 478. As for RF, I would assume the average player might get a few more of those since they may hold hands like KT suited over KJ offsuit at times, but it still will be somewhat close to expectation.

But as for your last statement, I don't see why their play matters to decide when/how to play the machine. I am personally trying to play as optimally as possible given the paytable is with the progressives factored in. This is where something like the Wiz's video poker app comes in handy. Just don't get caught using it while actually playing.

Quote: AxelWolf

I recently played at a small casino like Dottys . When the drop crew came in, I watched as he keyed the machines to get a count and change the bill validaters. they were multi games however most of the VP had good pays. 7 of the machines were between 94.1 - 95% OUCH!

Multi-Games as in slots and keno were on them too? If so, there's your answer. Slots/Keno will pay much less versus video poker.

How stupid is the concept of VP wanting people to play, to simply fudge the numbers so someone else can lose the mortgage on a slot? They should just cut out the middle man and pay slappers more. Get away from entertainment and have people slap buttons with actually a chance. Somehow someone gets paid $100,000 per year as an independent contractor, so others will be confident to lose more and the casino keeps the difference. Just cut out the middle man and all the BS I say. The casinos might as well make VP a one spin decision and have everyone hit the button as fast as they can and betting as much as they can.

As far as actual holds, didn't Jean Scott claim they are 94% on 9/6 JOB or something similar?

Quote: tringlomane

But as for your last statement, I don't see why their play matters to decide when/how to play the machine.

As always, tringlomane, I appreciate your input! I will try to explain my position below...

Much like the methodology for Mystery Progressives (see that thread), the optimal play point for a VP progressive is derived from finding the value on the meter that maximizes the Value, V. V is defined as the product of the probability of a progressive being playable (at or above the play number) and the expected profit of a play when starting exactly at that number.

Pr(Playable) = (1 - 1/Cycle) ^ ((OPN-Reset) / (Bet*Meter_Rise))

E(Profit) = E(Win) - E(Cost)
where E(Win) = OPN + (Meter_Rise*Bet*Cycle)
and E(Cost) = Reset + (Bet*Cycle*Hold)

V = ((1 - 1/Cycle) ^ ((OPN-Reset) / (Bet*Meter_Rise))) * ((OPN + (Meter_Rise*Bet*Cycle)) - (Reset + (Bet*Cycle*Hold)))

Taking the derivative of V with respect to OPN, setting it to 0 and solving for OPN gives
OPN = E(Cost),
which is the generally accepted optimal play point and, coincidentally, the breakeven value for a non-progressive game.

The problem with this method is that our equation for V assumes that the Cycle length used to determine playability is the same as that used to determine our profit. I say that these Cycles are not necessarily the same. The one used to determine playability for the AP is a function of the strategy used by the average player playing the average game linked to the meter, since the AP will not be playing until these folks pump up the meter first; whereas, the one used to determine profit is based solely on the strategy that the AP will employ.

In the equation above, it is common (and incorrect) practice to use the Cycle length based on the strategy of the AP for determining both playability and expected profit. How many AP's do you know that play well below the OPN?

Quote: tringlomane

I am personally trying to play as optimally as possible given the paytable is with the progressives factored in.

As you should if you can do so without bringing heat! That is, once you have a play, bending your strategy to the meter is a perfectly acceptable tactic. How do you determine your starting point? My intention is not to criticize, but to point out that this calculation may require some more thought. Perhaps the current method is the best estimation given the information we have. I am mostly curious to see if anyone has considered this idea and/or has more info on the average player on the average game.

If I have hijacked this thread or offended anybody, I sincerely apologize!

I see what you are saying now. I don't really play progressives very often because good opportunities aren't that great in my area (and my nearest casino is 30 minutes away...ouch). But yeah, ideally you will want to maximize the total value of the progressive machine above a certain hourly return (i.e. what you value your time at playing a +EV progressive).

Unfortunately, unless one takes a significant amount of data progressive hit point histories, it's will be difficult to pinpoint the average player's behavior. There will be some that don't adjust their strategy at all based on the meter, and there will be others that over adjust and play AT suited when the meter is only 5% above the reset point, or always toss high pairs for 3 to a Royal. In theory, you're right, the probability of the machine hitting will be based on strategy employed by all players. But being able to quantify the average player's strategy over the life of the progressive is nearly impossible without significant data collection. So the best we can do is look at optimal strategy, calculate that. And then calculate some deviations from said optimal strategy (based on more/less aggressive progressive chasing than optimal) and calculate those. And then do our best to predict what the the average player does. If I had to make an educated guess, the average player will be generally more aggressive to the progressive targets. Those types of players are more drawn to progressives in the first place, right?

Quote: onenickelmiracle

As far as actual holds, didn't Jean Scott claim they are 94% on 9/6 JOB or something similar?

Maybe at one point in time they could be have been this low, but I highly doubt it now. Anyone with half a clue can play 9/6 JoB for > 99% now (0.54% return or less lost to errors).

When I saw the young lady hold a wild deuce and a high card. I stopped worrying whether the casinos were making enough money.

Quote: pew

When I saw the young lady hold a wild deuce and a high card. I stopped worrying whether the casinos were making enough money.

Exactly! My favorite is holding a high card with a low pair, for "insurance," especially when it's an Ace! You can't get quad Aces when you hold another pair!

What may be of interest is that slot performance (hold/profit/handle) are posted online by gaming commissions. The Missouri Gaming Commission is but one example.

While breakout between slot game type is not shown, the drop and hold (coin in and player return) are shown. All reporting casinos in the State of Missouri have a remarkably tight range, between an 89% to 91% player return. Click on Riverboat Revenue, then on Slot/table payout percentages. If you know the ratio or handle between the types, you can get a pretty accurate figure to account for the essentially unvarying 90% general slot return.

This would reveal to some degree the "player slop" on strategy games (VP), which is considerable. Return on penny tokenized slots is low, and on $25 - $100 slots are highly variable. And slots just drawf table games in terms of dollar action.

Quote: Paigowdan

What may be of interest is that slot performance (hold/profit/handle) are posted online by gaming commissions. The Missouri Gaming Commission is but one example.

While breakout between slot game type is not shown, the drop and hold (coin in and player return) are shown. All reporting casinos in the State of Missouri have a remarkably tight range, between an 89% to 91% player return. Click on Riverboat Revenue, then on Slot/table payout percentages. If you know the ratio or handle between the types, you can get a pretty accurate figure to account for the essentially unvarying 90% general slot return.

This would reveal to some degree the "player slop" on strategy games (VP), which is considerable. Return on penny tokenized slots is low, and on $25 - $100 slots are highly variable. And slots just drawf table games in terms of dollar action.

Unfortunately Dan, video poker returns in Missouri are lumped in with the slot returns as they are in Nevada, and does every other state I am aware of that releases this data. So they unfortunately help very little to estimate actual return on video poker machines. And it's mainly because like you said, you need to know the ratio of the handle between slots and video poker. And estimate the weighted average of optimal video poker return as well. Because in my experience, the highest paying machines are not the ones with most coin-in...lol

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: Paigowdan

What may be of interest is that slot performance (hold/profit/handle) are posted online by gaming commissions. The Missouri Gaming Commission is but one example.

While breakout between slot game type is not shown, the drop and hold (coin in and player return) are shown. All reporting casinos in the State of Missouri have a remarkably tight range, between an 89% to 91% player return. Click on Riverboat Revenue, then on Slot/table payout percentages. If you know the ratio or handle between the types, you can get a pretty accurate figure to account for the essentially unvarying 90% general slot return.

This would reveal to some degree the "player slop" on strategy games (VP), which is considerable. Return on penny tokenized slots is low, and on $25 - $100 slots are highly variable. And slots just drawf table games in terms of dollar action.

Unfortunately Dan, video poker returns in Missouri are lumped in with the slot returns as they are in Nevada, and does every other state I am aware of that releases this data. So they unfortunately help very little to estimate actual return on video poker machines. And it's mainly because like you said, you need to know the ratio of the handle between slots and video poker. And estimate the weighted average of optimal video poker return as well. Because in my experience, the highest paying machines are not the ones with most coin-in...lol

You know, I have a friend (Brad Fredella), who's the Manager of Gaming Analytics at United Coin. He is also going to be on Bob Dancer's "Gambling with an edge" this coming Thursday. I'll email this situation/link to Mr. Dancer and Mr. Fredella, and see if it pops up. Would be a good thing to discuss on the show.

Quote: Paigowdan

You know, I have a friend (Brad Fredella), who's the Manager of Gaming Analytics at United Coin. He is also going to be on Bob Dancer's "Gambling with an edge" this coming Thursday. I'll email this situation/link to Mr. Dancer and Mr. Fredella, and see if it pops up. Would be a good thing to discuss on the show.

Yeah, if Brad has more precise data that he would be able to share, that could definitely be helpful.

Quote: tringlomane

Yeah, if Brad has more precise data that he would be able to share, that could definitely be helpful.

I just emailed these two fine gentlemen, with a "fill us in on how this is really done" request.

Edit/addition: Also of interest is that there are cases of expert strategy VP players being barred, though I couldn't re-locate one article that caught my attention a few years ago. I believe it was a woman in the Detroit area who successfully learned and practiced perfect VP strategy, only to be backed off/barred from the casino as her "play is too good for us" kind of thing. On VP??!!

Quote: Paigowdan

I just emailed these two fine gentlemen, with a "fill us in on how this is really done" request.

Edit/addition: Also of interest is that there are cases of expert strategy VP players being barred, though I couldn't re-locate one article that caught my attention a few years ago. I believe it was a woman in the Detroit area who successfully learned and practiced perfect VP strategy, only to be backed off/barred from the casino as her "play is too good for us" kind of thing. On VP??!!

Thanks Dan!

And was this lady banned in Vegas or Detroit? Banned in Detroit would be likely ridiculous, because Michigan state-run casinos are one of many states that have a 100% maximum long-term return cap on slots/video poker. But then again, even states without this rule don't have >100% machines I think (except Nevada of course).

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/mgcb/What_are_the_payback_for_slot_machines_rev_12032010_340753_7.htm

Other states with this 100% maximum law include (I might be missing some):

Arizona
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Louisiana
Michigan
Mississippi
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Minnesota is even worse at 98% (except for grandfathered machines).

Quote: tringlomane

....
And was this lady banned in Vegas or Detroit? Banned in Detroit would be likely ridiculous, because Michigan state-run casinos are one of many states that have a 100% maximum long-term return cap on slots/video poker. But then again, even states without this rule don't have >100% machines I think (except Nevada of course).

IIRC, yes, - and to surprise and shock I recall it was indeed in Detroit (and I believe it was Greektown, not 100% certain). This player was an expert disciple of Jean Scott kind of thing, and had also played on her player's card. She was a no joke kind of Frugal Gambler. And apparently, players' play was indeed then tracked on the system as to their adherence and competency in closeness to its perfect and advanced VP strategy play. This lady was NO run of the mill ploppie, it was more like the Michael Larson 'Press your Luck' game show situation of perfect play. Wish I can dig it up.

But Barring players from any slots, be it Cherries or VP, when approved strategy play is within the guidelines of play and the math specs of the game, I feel is over the top. Might have been just a one-off manager's decision. I believe it was discussed here a few years ago.

Quote: Paigowdan

IIRC, yes, - and to surprise and shock I recall it was indeed in Detroit (and I believe it was Greektown, not 100% certain). This player was an expert disciple of Jean Scott kind of thing, and had also played on her player's card. She was a no joke kind of Frugal Gambler. And apparently, players' play was indeed then tracked on the system as to their adherence and competency in closeness to its perfect and advanced VP strategy play. This lady was NO run of the mill ploppie, it was more like the Michael Larson 'Press your Luck' game show situation of perfect play. Wish I can dig it up.

But Barring players from any slots, be it Cherries or VP, when approved strategy play is within the guidelines of play and the math specs of the game, I feel is over the top. Might have been just a one-off manager's decision. I believe it was discussed here a few years ago.

Greektown barred alot of vp players a few years ago.

Quote: Paigowdan

This player was an expert disciple of Jean Scott kind of thing, and had also played on her player's card. She was a no joke kind of Frugal Gambler.

Yeah this is the only logical explanation. Maybe Greektown's systems weren't good enough to cut off/scale back an individual's comps based on their actual play? Or to do so is illegal in Michigan, but an outright banning is legal as an alternative? I assume that most casinos in this case just eat the cost on a vast majority of players that play like this. Do you agree, Bob, and other VP comp/promo experts who read this?

Quote: Hunterhill

Greektown barred alot of vp players a few years ago.

Yeah, maybe that was their best/easiest option. Offering near 100% video poker can lead to abuse obviously.

Quote: tringlomane

Yeah this is the only logical explanation. Maybe Greektown's systems weren't good enough to cut off/scale back an individual's comps based on their actual play? Or to do so is illegal in Michigan, but an outright banning is legal as an alternative? I assume that most casinos in this case just eat the cost on a vast majority of players that play like this. Do you agree, Bob, and other VP comp/promo experts who read this?



Yeah, maybe that was their best/easiest option. Offering near 100% video poker can lead to abuse obviously.

They had full pay pickem and used to give 1/2% cash back and one month they had double cash back. Needless to say the place was packed with AP`s

Quote: Hunterhill

They had full pay pickem and used to give 1/2% cash back and one month they had double cash back. Needless to say the place was packed with AP`s

Oh hell, with that setup, I am not surprised with mass bannings. And eventually they wised up and just got rid of the game if they were going to offer that liberal amount of cash back. My local casino (the former Harrah's STL) got rid of that game in late 2003, even with a measly 0.1% back in comps. It still exists in KC though at Isle of Capri, and is currently the best paying game left in Missouri (law has no max payback cap, but a game that broke >100% hasn't existed in MO in over 4 years [FP All-American]).

When I go to Vegas next week, definitely tempted to play full-pay pick'em at Fremont just because I can. :D

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

On the flip side, a lady was playing 9/6 next to me the other day and her strategy was atrocious! She would hold A,T suited instead of A,high card, hold a single A over two other high cards, hold any three to a flush, etc. On top of it, she was playing 9 lines at 2 credits each and in turbo mode. All I could do was shake my head in disbelief. I can't even imagine how bad players are with games like DDB and the such where strategy is a bit more difficult.

Holding AT suited when not playing max credits is hilarious. As for DDB, I can't recall the last person I have correctly seen hold 2 pair containing Kings, Queens, or Jacks. I think I am at least on a ten in a row streak of players breaking off the low pair and going for quads, excluding my g/f who I tell to hold two pair. This includes two women who also did it at Triple Double Bonus. *shrugs*

Listen, there is an update on the main focus of this thread - with clear explanation of how this works - from the very fine Manager of Gaming Analytics at United Coin Machine, Brad Fredella. (And on this, our thanks to him, - from both the Industry and the gaming populace!)

Dan,

Feel free to copy and paste on the thread, but use the version below THIS message with the more approximated percentages since I used --------------------------------------- in the first e-mail I sent. Also, please be careful to exclude my phone number of course. J

Thanks,
Brad Fredella
Manager of Gaming Analytics
United Coin Machine Co.
600 Pilot Rd.
Las Vegas, NV 89119
Direct (702) xxx-xxxx
Cell (yyy) yyy-yyyy
Fax (702) zzz-zzzz

Dan,
I saw this message and took a look at the thread, though it seems to have strayed a bit from the original question of how casino operators determine what to expect in terms of actual hold % versus theoretical hold % based on expert play. The answer when it comes to video poker is pretty simple, about 2% better than the theoretically expert listed payback percentage. IGT actually stated two different hold % on their PAR sheets for Game King video poker themes, one labeled “optimum player return” and the other “expected field return.” For the optimum return, the exact percentage for perfect play was stated, however for the “expected” return they listed a range of percentages, which in each and every case were 4% - 2% below the optimum.
[Brad omitted specifics and decimal places, but that's the jist.]

My response:
Brad,

Thanks - quite interesting.

On video poker, the 2% difference is interesting and considerable, and what would be interesting here is isolating the top five most misplayed ploppie situations, which would probably account for 80% + of the 2% to 4% difference. In other words, if the average ploppie had known and focused on improving just a handful of plays, the "expected" return would/could be more like 0.4% instead of 2%. 20% more technique/skill gets back 80% with a little effort. There are a whole lot of lazy, "seat of the pants" gamblers! This might be interesting to discuss on the show. In the same way, cleaning up two-pair and straight and flush handling in Pai Gow poker play would give massive improvement to the PGP player, but less so with proper quads play and full house play, which yield less back for the effort. Sort of: an easy near-perfect strategy, versus a hard to learn totally perfect strategy.

I know that when I require table game R & D math reports from Total Gaming Science, I can request of my mathematician (CRM), that on games of skill like Pai Gow Poker and Hold 'em variants, - give not only the house edge against optimal play, but expected house edge against "average play," in addition to anti-AP/counting reports. Quite often getting the "average play/return" is using the house way as the "average player," since players seem to learn the house way that they see, instead of thinking out a hand setting like a pro poker player or Tournament Pai Gow player. On Hold 'em games, we can add a "chicken shit/scared to chunk raise" factor, (that is, not raising on hole card hands like J-10 or Q-8 when playing heads up against the dealer.)

[aside: I DO notice when looking up table game holds in various jurisdictions, mature local casinos can be razor thin on BJ and UTH, but way larger at Tourist Joints. We can sometimes even tell when a "good team" hits a new countable bet: "Drop is $450,000 for the month on table 'x'? And Hold is -3% (loss of $13,500). Call Eliot Jacobson today! Sitting in your office looking at the numbers, you can easily think "some poor bastard got fired!"]


Brad, if you wish, do chime on that thread, of if I may cut and paste? [he said yup, above]

Dan.

I will indeed listen in to Bob Dancer's fine show, I believe this - and us here - may be mentioned. You want more specifics? Do dial in Bob's show!

I wonder what % of hands do most players misplay, and which ones. I'm guessing they are the straight flush possibilities over high cards, and penalty situations for high card + suited T. Royal draws probably get misplayed as well, since most casual players are playing to hit the royal with disregard to perfect play.

(These examples are only for JoB, but placement of deuces + draws plays a factor in DW as well.)

I don't know, it might be interesting if we could get some of the members who are not terribly good at VP to play the Wizard's practice game, and have us all play the same game. I'll tell you what I might do, I might play the JoB game later on tonight and post whatever mistakes I make and how much those mistakes cost me in EV, 1,000 hands or so. I think I am a very slightly above average VP player, but I don't play it anywhere near enough to be perfect...in fact...I hate video poker!

Quote: Mission146

I don't know, it might be interesting if we could get some of the members who are not terribly good at VP to play the Wizard's practice game, and have us all play the same game. I'll tell you what I might do, I might play the JoB game later on tonight and post whatever mistakes I make and how much those mistakes cost me in EV, 1,000 hands or so. I think I am a very slightly above average VP player, but I don't play it anywhere near enough to be perfect...in fact...I hate video poker!

I tried to put in 1000 hands but failed miserably in playing them perfectly. Since I play mostly FPDW I would miss 2 pair holdings, pairs of 8's for some reason, and guess on all royal/suited high card combos and missed most of them. Another big set of misses are 3 to a SF with A such as A45s, A23s, etc, and 3 card gappers to a SF. Sometimes they are correct plays over 2 suited high cards, such as when they are no gaps.

Aside from the obvious pair/2 pair holdings the other misses are pretty small in terms of $ lost but still over time they add up. Gonna try it again and see what happens.

I haven't started yet, I needed to install the most recent version of Java for JoB to get the notifications on strategy errors. Anyway, I was listening to the AHigh interview at the time, so I played Mississippi Stud instead.

Reminder - Brad Fredella - slot guy is on tonight.........

I just knocked out 200 hands with two errors, actually four, but two of them were due to this stupid auto-click thingy on the mouse.

My two errors were almost the same, Wheel Straight Flush draws, here's one:

3s 4s Kh As 7h

Hold: Kh, As EV: 2.3913045

Correct Hold: As, 3s, 4s EV: 2.7012026

The other one was the same thing, two unsuited high cards rather than three to the Wheel Straight Flush.

800 more hands to go, I'll start back on those Monday, then I'll try FPDW and then be done. I don't have enough faith in my (lack of) VP ability to play any other game, so I'll just leave it with those two.

I played some more and found this to be a tricky play:

4 high card inside straight (2.97872300)

You would play them together unless it is QJs (3.03978400)

or obviously 3 or more to a royal, with every SF draw in between (such as TJ98s Q)

Just playing the cards especially in JoB I'm looking at high cards and sometimes miss out on pairs and low SF draws.

If we are doing analysis per difficult hand and still coming up with errors, it's not a far stretch to say the average player probably gets a return a bit better then a loose slot machine. Based on Paigowdan's post a 2-4% hold on a JoB machine would make it a 97.54% to 95.5% return. Actually based on that number slot players would do well playing VP with no strategy (besides the super obvious basics) would fare a lot better then the one armed bandits.

If your an AP trying to make money on VP certainly try to learn strategy's the best you can, however if you are playing a game where every minute mistake makes a big difference I say stay away. On the other hand if your playing something with a decent edge and you are obsessed with playing each hand absolutely perfectly you will cost yourself money by slowing down. Whipping out strategy cards for minor hands can be costly if you're tying for a better hourly also, management may be watching.

Unfortunately I was in Vegas for a week, and didn't get to respond to Brad's response right away (Thanks again, Dan!). But yeah, it's also in line from what I have heard from a few other sources. And thanks for being this detailed Brad!

One of the most common errors in terms of frequency, I would guess is not holding two pair in Double Double Bonus if you have a pair of Kings-Jacks with it. I rarely ever see anyone else hold that.

Others probably are, going for an open ended straight vs. a pair.

Many 3 to a straight flush draws.

For some people, holding two high cards over a pair.

Hell, I like to think I am well versed at video poker, but I convinced myself that an Ace was better at 7/5 Triple Bonus Plus for a single credit than QJoff while I cheaply played for comped drinks this last trip. That cost me like 1/3rd of a cent each time...lol

Quote: AxelWolf

If your an AP trying to make money on VP certainly try to learn strategy's the best you can, however if you are playing a game where every minute mistake makes a big difference I say stay away. On the other hand if your playing something with a decent edge and you are obsessed with playing each hand absolutely perfectly you will cost yourself money by slowing down. Whipping out strategy cards for minor hands can be costly if you're tying for a better hourly also, management may be watching.

Yup it's all about the balance. If your EV is razor thin between 2 choices then you can disregard looking it up to gain a small amount. If the hand choices have a huge gap in between EV then you'd look them up, and preferably memorize them so you don't have to keep going back whether to hold 2 to a royal, Khigh with penalty cards, or something like that.

By the way, aren't strategy cards legal in casinos? I thought when you start using electronic devices you can get barred.