Las Vegas 2021

Well, for the first time in my life I’ll be taking a second trip to Vegas in the same calendar year. I had planned an international trip but that fell apart and i was not going to let vacation days go to waste. I arrive Sunday and will leave later in the day on Thursday (12-16th). 4 nights. I’ll be staying 2 nights on the strip and 2 downtown. 2 hotels I’ve gambled at but never stayed at before. I believe that the following weekend is a meet up weekend for various podcasts but I won’t be able to stay for that. I’ll be updating my trip report in this thread. As usual, planning a lot of craps, VP, PGT and walking around. Will def go to a buffet or two.

Day 1A

Flight in was uneventful. Landed 20 mins early and then had a 30 min wait on the tarmac. Oh well. Lyft is working better than last time I was here. 5 min wait. Ride was just under $15.

Arrived at Paris just after 3. I did check in on my phone. Just needed to print key at kiosk. However the line for the kiosk was 150 people easily. I thought that was for a live person but it was for the kiosk. Didn’t want to wait so found the PGT table. It was empty and $25. As I was laying money down, pit boss moved the sign to $50 but said I could play for $25 until anyone else arrived. At that point, it would be $50. I played for close to 4 hours and no one else came by. As before, dealers were competent but not as friendly as at Harrahs. One was completely silent. I asked if he had a favorite game to deal and he said “they’re all the same”. Ok then. The other dealer was a bit more friendly. Said they only keep PGT open Fri-Sun. When I left they closed the table. I lost about $75 after close to 4 hours.

Checked into the room. At this point no line for kiosk. Paris Room is very nice. Useable fridge and safe. No coffee maker. Rooms are much nicer than ballys (where I’ve stayed multiple times before). Room feels new and decor is well thought out. I’m impressed. I’ll be here for 2 nights (comped but with resort fee, total of $100 or so).

Down to ballys food court for dinner. Will use BOGO from ACG book.

Total: down 75 or so.

Welcome back to Vegas Tinman. Sorry the weather has turned colder the past few days. We were running 10 degrees above average for November and first week of December (70 during the day) . But you are not here for the weather, I am sure.

Looking forward to your interesting and well presented trip report as it always is. And don't forget have a good time while you win some money.

kj

Day 2A

Went to bed after dinner last night. Up really early today. Ballys and Paris craps both $15. Played some of the mini $5 craps at ballys (personal machine) and won $40.
There was another guy sitting at the personal machine next to me. He puts money in and I see him making bets. He looks confused and keeps staring at the screen. Goes on for about 2 minutes. Finally he asks me: “how do I roll the dice?” I point to the green button. He laughs.

Walked over to Paris and asked pit boss if craps ever goes down to $10. He said I could play for $10. Had the table to myself. Just PL and 2-3x odds. Lost $120. Dealers seemed a little annoyed I wasn’t betting more. Game went very fast. Stayed there for about 1 hour. Probably equivalent of 2-3 hours of rolls at a full table.

Total: Down $160 or so

Day 2B

Walked to bellagio and then tram to Park MGM.

Strange site at Bellagio where a significant amount of water was leaking from interior light fixtures onto an escalator. Seemed very dangerous. There was a bucket but no one there and the escalator was still running. I took a photo and will try to post later.

Two myVEGAS match plays were lost ($40) at park mgm.

Then walked to aria. Sat in 1/2 PLO game. Mostly uneventful for me for 2 hours. Game itself was wild. So much gamble in everyone else. Frequent huge pots with mediocre cards. Dwindled down from $200 to $120. Then limped QJ107 with a suit. Flop 10 7 4. One opponent bet $25. I potted and we got it all in. He had a set of 7s and won.

Total: down $400 or so

Day 2C

Tram back to Bellagio. Got the buffet. $45 with tax. It was ok. No crab legs. Shrimp were the small cheap ones. Flank steak was pretty good, as was the salmon and poke tuna. Ice cream wasn’t as good as Cosmo buffet. I prefer getting my own drinks. Bacon was excellent. Plates were cleared promptly.

Walked to Cromwell. $5 3CP for an hour. Won $20. One guy was betting $30 blind plus all the side bets. Must have dropped $500-$700 in an hour. Walked to Harrahs. PGT closed. I couldn’t find a 3/2 BJ even at $25 or $50. Sat down at roll to win. The electronic table top with real dice. $10 min. I bet PL and 2x odds. Just brutal. Lost $200 in about an hour.

Walked to Linq. They had $5 high card flush. Never played before but basic strategy easy and only $5. Had some miserable hands. Had to muck dozens of bad hands. Only dropped $75 in total though.

Current: down 650 or so.

Rest of Day 2

Uber to the Orleans. Registered for $125 horse tournament. Had time to kill so played some 9/7 DB VP. Won $30. Played 4+ hours in the tournament. Never had a large stack. Finally got down to 3 bets. Tried to steal the ante in Razz and got caught. Made an 8 low but ran into a 6. Oh well.

Total: down about 740 or so. Not looking good so far but There’s still time

Day 3A

Checked out of Paris and uber Downtown. I’ve experienced none of the issues i had with ride sharing last time I was here. Staying two nights at 4 queens cheap ($41 total payment for 2 days). Didn’t let me check until 1 so played some 10/7 DB for quarters. Went down nearly 300 before a comeback. Got back to $250 ($50 loss) by 1pm and cashed out. There’s a promotion that got me $10 for food voucher.

Total: down 800 or so.

Day 3B

Room review: it’s a pretty crappy room. On par with fremont. Dated. Bathroom shower design is the kind where it’s clear the floor will get soaked every time. There is a safe and fridge. It’s cheap though. They gave me a book of vouchers. There’s $10 match play and like 3 magnolias vouchers. Rough rough estimate of value: maybe $40 if you took advantage of all of it.

Lunch at magnolias. Delicious as always. Walked to cal and MSS. The 10/7 DB seems to be gone at MSS. VPFree2 said so but I wanted to check for myself. No table games. Signs saying only fri-sun. Cal craps was $15. Not for me. Back to 4Q. Craps was $10. Bought in for $300. $10 PL and 2-3x odds. Left with $7. Ugh. Just awful. Not fun.

I should be able to figure this out, but roughly how many often should 3 OAK turn into 4 OAK in VP?

I think the odds against hitting 4 OAK when you are dealt 3 OAK are 1 - ((1/47) + (1/47)) but I’ve had too much to drink to figure out what that is in terms of “on average, for every X number of times you have 3 OAK it should turn into 4 OAK after the draw”

Quote: TinMan

I should be able to figure this out, but roughly how many often should 3 OAK turn into 4 OAK in VP?
link to original post

I get 4/93 for non-wild 3ok to 4ok, but my math isn't the strongest.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: TinMan

I should be able to figure this out, but roughly how many often should 3 OAK turn into 4 OAK in VP?
link to original post

I get 4/93 for non-wild 3ok to 4ok, but my math isn't the strongest.
link to original post

Thank you! Yes, I was asking the context of a non wild cars game. I feel like I convert 3 OAK to 4 OAK rarely but I’m sure it’s just selective memory and the general limitations of human observation. Still helpful to know what the long term expectation is.

Enjoying reading this thread. Sorry you are having bad variance.

3OaK to 4Oak = 1 - (46/47*45/46) = 2/47 = 4.2553%

Slightly different than 4/93 that dieter gets. I could be wrong.

Quote: unJon

Enjoying reading this thread. Sorry you are having bad variance.

3OaK to 4Oak = 1 - (46/47*45/46) = 2/47 = 4.2553%

Slightly different than 4/93 that dieter gets. I could be wrong.
link to original post

Hey, if I'm within 0.05% of correct, that's a good math day for me.
I also freely admit that I could be wrong.
Then again, I can't quite make the leap to 2/47 there.

Day 3C

A minor winning session. A few hours of 10/7 DB turned into about $175 profit. I was down at the start over $100 and eventually hit a SF and AAAA along with some 4OAKs to turn a profit.

They’re running a promotion that 300 points gets you $30 in freeplay. On Anthony Curtis’ YouTube I thought he said $2400 coin in got you the necessary points but that may be for slots. The VP has different point awards. I believe the dollar game is $20 coin in for 1 point. The quarter game is $16 per point. To get 300 points at the quarter game is 300 x 16 = 4,800 coin in . Anyway, I was playing VP a good portion of the day and got there. Turned $30 free play into about $24 real dollars.

Day 4A

Woke up early. Walked to Fremont. $10 DD BJ no DAS. Bet mostly $10 with some $15/20/25. Dropped $200. One guy arrived at the table hammered and then ordered and drank 6 bud lights. Really obnoxious personality. I can’t do it justice here but you know the type. He kept talking about counting. He was varying his bets a bit but mostly between $30-$100. He was tipping too and doing things like doubling an 8. Most dealers just ignored his constant “ok, we’re at plus 7”, “you shuffled when the deck was just getting good” chatter. One dealer took him seriously and asked to have his play checked like 4 times.

Back to 4Q for DB VP. Dropped $120. No 4OAK and you get drained on any game with the lower 2 pair payout.

Breakfast at magnolias. Odd moment when all the power went out for about 10 seconds. Across whole casino as far as I could see. I guess backup generators kicked in then

Total: down 1250 or so

Have you had any fun?

Quote: TinMan

Day 3C

A minor winning session. A few hours of 10/7 DB turned into about $175 profit. I was down at the start over $100 and eventually hit a SF and AAAA along with some 4OAKs to turn a profit.

They’re running a promotion that 300 points gets you $30 in freeplay. On Anthony Curtis’ YouTube I thought he said $2400 coin in got you the necessary points but that may be for slots. The VP has different point awards. I believe the dollar game is $20 coin in for 1 point. The quarter game is $16 per point. To get 300 points at the quarter game is 300 x 16 = 4,800 coin in . Anyway, I was playing VP a good portion of the day and got there. Turned $30 free play into about $24 real dollars.
link to original post

It’s generally $8/pt for VP but the higher payback Vp is more per point. 10/7 DB has been that way forever and I believe they’ve recently changed it on most 99.5+% stuff.

Quote: billryan

Have you had any fun?
link to original post

Losing sucks but Overall it’s been a fun trip. I like the action. And certainly better than losing vacation days or just sitting at home. I think of an average swing for me is about +-$500 day (call that 1 standard deviation) so this isn’t too bad. I was up a similar amount after my trip earlier in the year and I know I can’t beat the HE so I really can’t complain. It does make me think about how much other people must be losing—im basically betting table min at 3/2 BJ and PL with odds. VP is nominally positive expectation (especially with the free play promo). The 3 hours I was playing PGT was also table min and banking half the time. But the swings can be real. For the people who just camp out at slots for hours, are they blowing like $2-3k a day some days?

Quote: TinMan

I should be able to figure this out, but roughly how many often should 3 OAK turn into 4 OAK in VP?

The fourth card can be anywhere in the 47 cards remaining in the deck; if it is one of the first two, you make the conversion, so the probability is 2 / 47.

My half-assed math says you will convert 3OAK to 4OAK a little more than 4% of the time, so roughly once every twenty five times.
Years of play has convinced me that there are days that 4OAKs come easily, and others that the vault is closed.

Rest of Day 4

Walked over to plaza and used a $25 bingo matchplay. I was one number away a few times but didn’t convert. I find the bingo pretty relaxing for an hour. Some suspense, some drinks, the machine does all the work. It’s a nice change of pace.

Placed a $20 Bet on +30 underdogs in a college basketball game. I took the points. Just saw that the game was cancelled due to covid. I’ll go get the $20 back tomorrow.

4Q had a $10 craps game. I bought in for $200 and played PL and 2x odds. This session went well. I ultimately cashed out for a little over $500. There were two guys playing DP and they got wiped out. Was nice to get some back.

The rest of the day was VP and dinner. Lots of ups and downs but ultimately lost about $80 in VP in total, including the $30 free play.

Trip Total: down about 1000-1100

Day 5A

Breakfast at magnolias. Perfectly good. I dislike that they don’t have real milk or cream on the table. Just non diary creamer. At least it tastes better than some others.

Walked to Binion’s. They had a $10 Face up PGP. I flat bet $10 and lost $130 in an hour. For such a slow game that seemed like exceptionally bad luck.

Back to four queens to check out. Still have some time before my flight out.

Day 5B

Unpleasant experience at craps. $10 table at 4Q. I buy in for 200 and make $10 PL and 2x odds. Guy and his girlfriend both playing next to me. Girlfriend to my immediately left and guy next to her. He tells the base dealer that both he and his girlfriend are craps dealers in Kansas. At one point I hear him saying something that sounds like “$20 odds? You gotta be aggressive.” I i wasn’t 100% sure and ignore it. Guy is regularly betting for the dealers. $1 PL and $2 odds every shooter. About 15 mins go by and I’m even. He says something to his girlfriend that sounded like “see that? hasn’t bet for the dealer.” A few minutes later the dice come to me and I put down a $1 PL bet next to my bet. He says to her “oh now he’s tipping a $1”. At this point I’m just annoyed. I throw a winner 7 and then next come out roll I establish a 9. At this point I’m up slightly from my $200 start. I’m ready to go If I 7 out. I had 8 greens and 10 dollar chips and maybe a single red chip so I put out the 10 dollar chips for odds. Guy says something like “$10 odds!” Anyway I hit the 9 and get paid. Next come out roll I establish a point and then 7 out. I color up and leave with like $226 or so. In total I was at the table maybe 30-40 mins. Uncomfortable so I left.

Walked to plaza. Played bingo and lost. Only one sweat. $40 down.

Walked over to golden nugget and played 1/2 poker. That went well. Table was very soft. I won $420. biggest hand was AA vs QQ all In preflop. Someone raised to $7. A few calls and I raise to 25. Original raiser goes to $81 and I ship it all in. He thinks about it and calls. We were each in for something like $250 each person. AA holds up and I won a big pot.

I think I’m somewhere down around 900-1000. I’ll do a full count when I get home. Was nice to get a solid poker win.

Great trip report TinMan. I enjoyed reading it. Thank you.

Sorry you ended up down. Hope you had fun and enjoyed your trip anyway. As usual it was a very enjoyable trip report to read. You really do a great job with your reports.

Quote: TinMan

I think I’m somewhere down around 900-1000. I’ll do a full count when I get home.

Refreshing to have a Reality Check on Win/Loss in a Trip Report. You'll get them next time, hopefully.