The Darkoz Challenge

I have already been comped four days over NYE, December 30 - January 2nd.

Anyone who wants to see I have a room that weekend in AC can stop by.

Furthermore if I see an Advantage Play (often I set stuff up a few days to week in advance) I invite regular posters on here to come watch me play.

If I don't win at least a thousand dollars for the session, I will pay for dinner.

If I win more than $1000 for the session the person accepting the challenge picks up dinner AND gives a trip report on here.

One condition of this challenge is you must show up with a "fifty thousand dollar smile"

Kinda on the dull side, innit?

Well, they can't all be gems.

Duplicate post.

Quote: MDawg

Kinda on the dull side, innit?

Well, they can't all be gems.

If people want to see if I am real it's not gonna require fifty grand

Quote: darkoz

If people want to see if I am real it's not gonna require fifty grand

No one doubts you are real. If I lived nearby I would definitely take you up on the offer. I LOVED watching Axel AP, Ahigh roll dem bones, Pink AP the slots, PaiGowDan overtip, BBB teach my boys that flush game, plus many more....

Quote: MDawg

Kinda on the dull side, innit?

dull and boring is reading posts from a player who has no ability to gain an edge babbling inanely about how great he is



*

Quote: lilredrooster

dull and boring is reading posts from a player who has no ability to gain an edge babbling inanely about how great he is



*

It was kind of fun for the first couple thousand posts but then I realized he was trying to be serious. It's like listening to Rush Limbaugh.
Accept that he is a master of satire and his show can be amazing.

Quote: lilredrooster

dull and boring is reading posts from a player who has no ability to gain an edge babbling inanely about how great he is

Personal insult -- Five days (Martingaled)

Quote: darkoz

I have already been comped four days over NYE, December 30 - January 2nd.

Anyone who wants to see I have a room that weekend in AC can stop by.

Furthermore if I see an Advantage Play (often I set stuff up a few days to week in advance) I invite regular posters on here to come watch me play.

If I don't win at least a thousand dollars for the session, I will pay for dinner.

If I win more than $1000 for the session the person accepting the challenge picks up dinner AND gives a trip report on here.

One condition of this challenge is you must show up with a "fifty thousand dollar smile"

interesting... im comped at caesars (all 3 casinos) during that time period.
i might come just to follow you around to see how you make $1000 with all that competition in ac.

Quote: 100xOdds

interesting... im comped at caesars (all 3 casinos) during that time period.
i might come just to follow you around to see how you make $1000 with all that competition in ac.

Great. Let's hope there is a play available that weekend.

And yeah, I can't crystal ball a machines availability

Quote: 100xOdds

interesting... im comped at caesars (all 3 casinos) during that time period.
i might come just to follow you around to see how you make $1000 with all that competition in ac.

Enjoy your free dinner!

It is clear I have to make a few restrictions to this wager as I realize there are nefarious people who will attempt to take something unwritten and run the gamut.

So, number one if I find you to be someone questionable based on past history here at WOV in my sole opinion, then forget us meeting up. If for example you are someone who denies truthful statements or someone who is constantly putting me down, then I don't want to meet up, don't want you watching me play and don't want you (most likely) falsely reporting what you witness.

Number two, this is a dinner wager which to me isn't a big deal. But I never went into the specifics of the dinner aspect because for me a good dinner is a few hundred bucks.

So, loser picks out dinner location with the caveat it will be a sit-down restaurant and not fast food or buffet. I think that is fair enough. I already had one person demanding the restaurant locale and I am certain it was some super extravagant location being picked

Dinner is food and soft drinks for one meal for you and a guest(wife or husband for example). I am certain some unscrupulous person was planning on ordering five $90,000 bottles of wine to laughingly stick me with a ridiculous bill, but no that's not happening.

Finally If you are someone who espouses not wearing a mask, we aren't meeting up. I'm not risking my health by spending a few hours including maskless over dinner with someone who isn't taking our Pandemic seriously.

It's sad I have to be so specific but that's the world we live in.

Quote: darkoz

I already had one person demanding the restaurant locale and I am certain it was some super extravagant location being picked

What was the super-extravagant restaurant ?

Quote: darkoz

I have already been comped four days over NYE, December 30 - January 2nd.

Anyone who wants to see I have a room that weekend in AC can stop by.

Furthermore if I see an Advantage Play (often I set stuff up a few days to week in advance) I invite regular posters on here to come watch me play.

If I don't win at least a thousand dollars for the session, I will pay for dinner.

If I win more than $1000 for the session the person accepting the challenge picks up dinner AND gives a trip report on here.

One condition of this challenge is you must show up with a "fifty thousand dollar smile"

What game? For example, BJ, craps, slots?

Quote: Keyser

What game? For example, BJ, craps, slots?

Slots.

And specifically if I see an AP opportunity

I'm not claiming I can beat any slot in general

Quote: darkoz

Number two, this is a dinner wager which to me isn't a big deal. But I never went into the specifics of the dinner aspect because for me a good dinner is a few hundred bucks.

So, loser picks out dinner location with the caveat it will be a sit-down restaurant and not fast food or buffet. I think that is fair enough. I already had one person demanding the restaurant locale and I am certain it was some super extravagant location being picked

Dinner is food and soft drinks for one meal for you and a guest(wife or husband for example). I am certain some unscrupulous person was planning on ordering five $90,000 bottles of wine to laughingly stick me with a ridiculous bill, but no that's not happening.

It's sad I have to be so specific but that's the world we live in.

Reminded me of the Seinfeld episode where an annoying comic gives Jerry a suit in exchange for “dinner”. Jerry takes him out, comic only orders soup, and then claims that wasn’t the “dinner” and insists Jerry treat him again.

FWIW, I’d also be concerned about angle shooting as a general matter so the caveats above make sense.

Quote: darkoz

Slots.

And specifically if I see an AP opportunity

I'm not claiming I can beat any slot in general

Just guarantee yourself there will be an opportunity.

Quote: AxelWolf

Just guarantee yourself there will be an opportunity.

I recall a scenario of having a confederate front-load a must-hit-by machine in order to win a similar challenge.

Is that what you mean by guaranteeing an opportunity?

Quote: coachbelly

I recall a scenario of having a confederate front-load a must-hit-by machine in order to win a similar challenge.

Is that what you mean by guaranteeing an opportunity?

All that for a dinner?

You guys crack me up

Quote: darkoz

All that for a dinner?

The challenge was similar...not the prize.

But it demonstrated how slot play could be manipulated
to show a win for a short period, when the overall play could be a loss.

Kind of like the freeplay collecting thing.

You can run through freeplay today and claim to win,
but before you claim yourself a winner, you need to establish
that the losses incurred to generate the freeplay offer were less
than what was collected from the freeplay.

That can be established, but not by claiming that it happened.

Quote: coachbelly

The challenge was similar...not the prize.

But it demonstrated how slot play could be manipulated
to show a win for a short period, when the overall play could be a loss.

Kind of like the freeplay collecting thing.

You can run through freeplay today and claim to win,
but before you claim yourself a winner, you need to establish
that the losses incurred to generate the freeplay offer were less
than what was collected from the freeplay.

That can be established, but not by claiming that it happened.

It sounds like you want me to show you how to generate offers that exceed losses.

I already show one method in my NY AP thread and you said you were unaware anyone had ever verified my claims so as far as you were concerned it wasn't accurate, correct?

So, it sounds like unless I gamble on your own personal players card with you in person and then we wait and see what the offers are you won't believe what I say

Not getting enough attention lately?

Quote: darkoz

It sounds like you want me to show you how to generate offers that exceed losses.

I already show one method in my NY AP thread

The DarkOz challenge applies to AC, but your NY card-pulling thread doesn't apply to AC...does it?

Can you establish that your AC freeplay offers exceed the losses incurred to generate the offers?

Asking the question doesn't mean that you can't provide proof, I'm hoping that you can prove your claims.

Put up or shut up.

Quote: coachbelly

The DarkOz challenge applies to AC, but your NY card-pulling thread doesn't apply to AC...does it?

Can you establish that your AC freeplay offers exceed the losses incurred to generate the offers?

Asking the question doesn't mean that you can't provide proof, I'm hoping that you can prove your claims.

Put up or shut up.

You didn't answer the question.

I could show mail offers but you are saying that's not good enough. You are claiming that calendar offers don't show how much in losses I sustained to generate them.

I don't videotape my generation of offers so again.

You are asking for me to show you how I do it, in person and obviously on your own card!

It's not good enough for me to show you how I do it on anyone else's card because you would not know historical past play that you can say, "wow, he really did it".

Am I correct? Is that the only proof you would accept for your so-called put up or shut up?

Quote: darkoz

You didn't answer the question.

To be clear...is this the question that I didn't answer?

Quote: darkoz

I already show one method in my NY AP thread and you said you were unaware anyone had ever verified my claims so as far as you were concerned it wasn't accurate, correct?

Quote: coachbelly

To be clear...is this the question that I didn't answer?

I'm done.

You are blocked!

Quote: coachbelly

The DarkOz challenge applies to AC, but your NY card-pulling thread doesn't apply to AC...does it?

Can you establish that your AC freeplay offers exceed the losses incurred to generate the offers?

Asking the question doesn't mean that you can't provide proof, I'm hoping that you can prove your claims.

Put up or shut up.

LOL! Put up or shut up? I think about my claims here.....
I've made money by finding a weak Asia Poker dealer at the Paris.
I took advantage of a very weak dealer in Mesquite at Pai Gow poker.
I got way over comped at NYNY by betting big first hand while chatting with pit boss then dropping after he walked away.
Rat holing has my W/L statement showing a loss instead of a decent win.
I lost 16 hands at PGP (many ties intermixed) without a win. Kept playing and ended up ahead that session!
How can I prove any of this?

How can darkoz prove he didn't lose more than he won? No way to prove it.

When dark started this 'challenge' I didn't even consider that it was a real challenge. I just thought it was his way of saying.... 'hey forum, anyone want to get together in AC, get dinner, and see how I play?'

Quote: SOOPOO

LOL! Put up or shut up? I think about my claims here.....
I've made money by finding a weak Asia Poker dealer at the Paris.
I took advantage of a very weak dealer in Mesquite at Pai Gow poker.
I got way over comped at NYNY by betting big first hand while chatting with pit boss then dropping after he walked away.
Rat holing has my W/L statement showing a loss instead of a decent win.
I lost 16 hands at PGP (many ties intermixed) without a win. Kept playing and ended up ahead that session!
How can I prove any of this?

How can darkoz prove he didn't lose more than he won? No way to prove it.

When dark started this 'challenge' I didn't even consider that it was a real challenge. I just thought it was his way of saying.... 'hey forum, anyone want to get together in AC, get dinner, and see how I play?'

Pretty much that's correct.

A friendly watch me play challenge which we could discuss later over dinner. Let's face it what else would strangers have to talk about?

Quote: SOOPOO

LHow can darkoz prove he didn't lose more than he won? No way to prove it.

Exactly..so the only option left is to block his doubters...and that's what he's done.

SUBMISSION...he has submitted...he is finished.

Quote: coachbelly

I recall a scenario of having a confederate front-load a must-hit-by machine in order to win a similar challenge.

Is that what you mean by guaranteeing an opportunity?

You are spot on. Things like this is exactly why people should be careful (not talking about DarkOz, just in general) when getting involved in a challenge or whatever.

I can see how a complete gambling novice could be conned into thinking someone can beat slots and then they get taken advantage of.

This is also why someone with any sense isn't going to just take up a 50k challenge from an anonymous person with zero reputation who makes multiple highly improbable claims. At best you have a slight advantage with a chance you're getting conned or just wasting time, since it will never happen.

I think it would be great to meet you. I generally find your posts agreeable, informative and interesting. Seeing you play and maybe learning a thing or two would be worth the cost of dinner, and I always like meeting other APs in person or otherwise. Unfortunately due to some medical stuff and Covid I haven't been putting in as many hours at my job or APing this year and am not likely to fly in the near future since cases are picking up.

Even though I won't be there I hope it goes well for you and whoever else shows if anyone accepts.

Quote: SOOPOO

How can darkoz prove he didn't lose more than he won? No way to prove it.

Then should DO be called a liar?

And if he is willing to provide proof that he has won,
should his proof be rejected as faked before it's examined?

Quote: Minty

I think it would be great to meet you. I generally find your posts agreeable, informative and interesting. Seeing you play and maybe learning a thing or two would be worth the cost of dinner, and I always like meeting other APs in person or otherwise. Unfortunately due to some medical stuff and Covid I haven't been putting in as many hours at my job or APing this year and am not likely to fly in the near future since cases are picking up.

Even though I won't be there I hope it goes well for you and whoever else shows if anyone accepts.

Your post makes all my posts worthwhile.

Thank you

Quote: darkoz

Your post makes all my posts worthwhile.

Thank you

And thank you for posting!

I know you have some naysayers here and I do understand and respect their concerns of losing income due to too much information being out there. I empathize and realize that if information was more widespread that both myself and people I care about would suffer for it.

With that in mind, I do encourage you to realize that when people challenge you on claims of income, ability or character posting more in depth info about AP will only aggravate people. Those same people will likely be angry at you for revealing information and you have nothing to gain from it.

I'm not saying this is what you were planning or even going to do, but I could see this thread leading to people egging you on, you reacting and then others getting filled with righteous indignation towards you.

Again, I want to mention how valuable you are to the forum, but I just wanted to get that out there because I'd hate to see this thread lead to one or more others that end up spiralling in a negative direction.

Quote: Minty

And thank you for posting!

I know you have some naysayers here and I do understand and respect their concerns of losing income due to too much information being out there. I empathize and realize that if information was more widespread that both myself and people I care about would suffer for it.

With that in mind, I do encourage you to realize that when people challenge you on claims of income, ability or character posting more in depth info about AP will only aggravate people. Those same people will likely be angry at you for revealing information and you have nothing to gain from it.

I'm not saying this is what you were planning or even going to do, but I could see this thread leading to people egging you on, you reacting and then others getting filled with righteous indignation towards you.

Again, I want to mention how valuable you are to the forum, but I just wanted to get that out there because I'd hate to see this thread lead to one or more others that end up spiralling in a negative direction.

Appreciated!

I definitely wasn't going to give up my knowledge of gaining offers to Coach Belly, lol.

Quote: Minty

I do encourage you to realize that when people challenge you on claims of income, ability or character posting more in depth info about AP will only aggravate people.

People ask him to prove his claims after he has aggravated others and called them liars.

If he were considerate and supportive then he likely wold not have challengers.

Quote: coachbelly

People ask him to prove his claims after he has aggravated others and called them liars.

If he were considerate and supportive then he likely wold not have challengers.

I will 'challenge' him once I get a vaccine and am comfortable traveling. I fully expect him to win the challenge. But some of my favorite days were when I tailed Axel watching his plays, and had Pink help me AP some slots and Ultimate X. And put some techniques Mission gave me to use. I am looking forward to watching darkoz do what he does.

If MDawg would meet up with me without a bet (I don't consider buying darkoz dinner losing a bet), I most certainly would. And despite my skepticism, I would love nothing more than to see him win! To me, this forum is about learning new ideas, and meeting new people, not taking their money.

I despise hypocrisy!

A few people have pointed out any suggestions of dinner during a pandemic (while I have been vehemently stating my strong position of masks and shutdowns) is being a hypocrite.

And they were right. I can't stand hypocrisy even when it comes from me (we all are guilty occasionally. Takes a good amount of strength to admit imo)

It's very quiet in NY virus-wise so out of sight, out of mind (or out of my mind, little joke there)

So, change in challenge to accommodate.

Gambling part remains the same. Inside the casino we will be wearing masks. I'm going to be surrounded by other masked wearers anyway.

And in AC there is no smoking at this time not eating in the gaming floor. You can take your mask down to drink and then have to replace your mask, security is being stringent on this. And some places are doing temperature checks.

After gambling we will go to a quieter spot, the boardwalk or some casinos have lounge areas and we can chat for fifteen or twenty minutes masks on just to recap the play.

Then whoever lost pays for dinner as takeout and we go our merry ways to eat alone. Most of the restaurants, even the fancy ones have it now due to Covid-19.

After covid is settled down we can go back to dinner and speaking without masks

Quote: coachbelly

Exactly..so the only option left is to block his doubters...and that's what he's done.

SUBMISSION...he has submitted...he is finished.

What did is his submission prove in your opinion?

This topic of front loading got me to thinking.

My formula on the target point to play a must-hit-by progressive is based on when does a single bet become positive EV.

However, after fiddling with some numbers, if we assume the player is going to play until a must-hit-by is hit, then I show there is positive EV in playing below that point. It's better to not play hope other players pump up the jackpot and leave, but if you're swinging through a casino and won't return for a while, then, yes, I show the breakeven target point is about twice as far from the must-hit-by point as the point if going by a positive EV on the next bet.

I think I'll working on the target point for such a patient player.

Quote: Wizard

This topic of front loading got me to thinking.

My formula on the target point to play a must-hit-by progressive is based on when does a single bet become positive EV.

However, after fiddling with some numbers, if we assume the player is going to play until a must-hit-by is hit, then I show there is positive EV in playing below that point. It's better to not play hope other players pump up the jackpot and leave, but if you're swinging through a casino and won't return for a while, then, yes, I show the breakeven target point is about twice as far from the must-hit-by point as the point if going by a positive EV on the next bet.

I think I'll working on the target point for such a patient player.

I believe it worse than that.

Between must Hits hitting early and competitive teams sitting early I would say there is no break even point that would ever be reached

That is, if you just wait until the MH is breakeven you will find the seat already occupied until it hits and you wasted your time waiting.

And other times the machines hit Early.

Must Hit break even points to BEGIN PLAY are basically useless in the real world.

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?

Quote: Wizard

This topic of front loading got me to thinking.

My formula on the target point to play a must-hit-by progressive is based on when does a single bet become positive EV.

However, after fiddling with some numbers, if we assume the player is going to play until a must-hit-by is hit, then I show there is positive EV in playing below that point. It's better to not play hope other players pump up the jackpot and leave, but if you're swinging through a casino and won't return for a while, then, yes, I show the breakeven target point is about twice as far from the must-hit-by point as the point if going by a positive EV on the next bet.

I think I'll working on the target point for such a patient player.

There are so many more factors involved than that it's difficult to even know where to start.

For the purposes of this post, I am only talking about the machine taken in isolation, so no players card implications, mail or anything like that to further muddy the waters.

If there's an overall House Edge for the machine that a person can assume, that's all well and good, but that doesn't mean that is the only thing that a player should go by for the following reasons:

1.) The first thing that a player wants to look at when deciding whether or not to play is not only the expected hit point, but also the expected drop on the reels (base game) when trying to reach that expected hit point. The jackpot seed values as a percentage, if they are known, should be added to the house edge of the machine in question to tell the player what is likely to happen on the reels, and therefore, the expected, "Drop."

If a player does not do that, then the player is effectively double-counting the seed value of the progressive that he intends on taking down in the first place. He's also counting the seed value of a progressive (if not playing for the Major) that he will probably not hit.

2.) If the player is targeting a Minor, then if the player cannot be expected to hit the Major during this time, the player should consider the percentage meter contribution to the Major as good as gone. Even if it's not to be considered as gone, then any percentage contribution to the Major will at least be percentage that the player is not getting on the base game in the course of his play.

You could consider less than 100% of that meter contribution as good as gone by calculating it against the probability that you will hit the Major during this time, but that seems silly. These things are way too volatile to bend over backwards trying to get to 100.5%, or whatever and you will likely have better EV opportunities (if not single opportunities, then in the aggregate) elsewhere on the floor with far less risk in the amount of time playing this will take.

However, all of this can sometimes be partially offset when a player is targeting a Major (or some jackpot higher than some other). For example, there might be situations where a player targeting a Major who pushes it to the expected point that it should hit MUST hit the Minor if that happens, even though the Minor might not be +EV by itself at that point. In certain instances, a Minor (or lower value jackpot for machines with more than two) might even necessarily hit multiple times if the player hits the Major at the expected point, so that should be considered when deciding whether or not to take a play.

My general assumption is always just that I am going to drop 20% on the reels in the course of my play. That being the case, I tend not to find many plays that I consider, "Good," but that's fine, I don't really want them anyway.***

***Also, you will have plays where you DO drop more than 20% on the reels, even playing really conservative bet amounts.

If you wait until every single bet is +EV you'll basically never play any must hits. Once they're in that range it's rare for anyone playing them, AP or not, to give up the machine before hitting it.

Everyone I know who plays must hits takes into account the aggregate expected return of the entire play.

The question I have is if a market has a minimum slot return of say 85%, does that factor in the reset points and meter rise of the progressives? If it doesn't, then in a lot of cases you are subtracting a substantial amount, as much as 5% on some machines to account for the progressives. So if you're calculating a worst case scenario return for a slot when you don't have the PAR sheet or marketing material revealing the RTP, that number is going to be below the minimum return required.

I'm also going to say that many markets are now saturated with homeless looking degens who stalk machines waiting for them to enter positive territory. They'll often sit right behind a machine chainsmoking and making things uncomfortable for the person playing them. Casino personnel are aware of the issue and in my opinion must hits are becoming like UX, where if you're checking/stalking them regularly you risk getting noticed and having your player's card shut off, if you aren't outright banned.

People have the data they need to calculate their own entry points for various games. They can put in the effort and do the legwork on their own if they're interested. Spoon feeding target numbers to the masses is just going to exacerbate the existing issue and drive casinos to stop offering these games.

I guess I'm selfishly stating that I think the existing information you provide is sufficient.

I'm curious to hear the opinion of others.

Quote: sabre

If you wait until every single bet is +EV you'll basically never play any must hits. Once they're in that range it's rare for anyone playing them, AP or not, to give up the machine before hitting it.

Everyone I know who plays must hits takes into account the aggregate expected return of the entire play.

I agree. You pretty much have to if you want to have any plays on these, which is fine, because I don't want to have any plays on these that aren't phenomenal in value.

Quote:

The question I have is if a market has a minimum slot return of say 85%, does that factor in the reset points and meter rise of the progressives? If it doesn't, then in a lot of cases you are subtracting a substantial amount, as much as 5% on some machines to account for the progressives. So if you're calculating a worst case scenario return for a slot when you don't have the PAR sheet or marketing material revealing the RTP, that number is going to be below the minimum return required.

I'm also going to say that many markets are now saturated with homeless looking degens who stalk machines waiting for them to enter positive territory. They'll often sit right behind a machine chainsmoking and making things uncomfortable for the person playing them. Casino personnel are aware of the issue and in my opinion must hits are becoming like UX, where if you're checking/stalking them regularly you risk getting noticed and having your player's card shut off, if you aren't outright banned.

People have the data they need to calculate their own entry points for various games. They can put in the effort and do the legwork on their own if they're interested. Spoon feeding target numbers to the masses is just going to exacerbate the existing issue and drive casinos to stop offering these games.

I guess I'm selfishly stating that I think the existing information you provide is sufficient.

I'm curious to hear the opinion of others.

I believe that the minimum jurisdictional returns refer to the total return of the machine, so the seed value of the jackpots as well as progressive meter contribution would all be a part of the overall return of the machine. For me, I just assume that my drop on the reels is going to be about 20%, but I agree, it's possible (though probably not very likely) that it might be even worse than that. Either way, meter moves and seed values generally account for about 3-5%, all told.

The next paragraph about, "Homeless looking degens," probably depends mostly on the casino and the market. I would say that it also depends on how a person operates, such that I don't go, "Sitting behind," anyone and waiting for them. The worst I will ever do is walk in that general area every few minutes (or after going and looking at something else) and even then, that's only if I know they are sitting on a favorable situation (and I am also not talking about MHs). If someone wants to sit six feet away and bore holes into the player with their eyes so they can jump on the second the player gets up, then they can have the machine as far as I am concerned. They must need the EV more than I do.

Quote: darkoz

I believe it worse than that.

Between must Hits hitting early and competitive teams sitting early I would say there is no break even point that would ever be reached

That is, if you just wait until the MH is breakeven you will find the seat already occupied until it hits and you wasted your time waiting.

And other times the machines hit Early.

Must Hit break even points to BEGIN PLAY are basically useless in the real world.

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?

If that's the case, then you'd have to calculate the value of the entire proposition. Obviously, you have discussed what you do, so there are all sorts of variables involved with that.

If a casino treated Video Poker and slots the same way...you know what I mean...then I guess the question would just be whether your EV on the must-hit is better than it would be on the Video Poker factoring in the return on the VP games. Depending on bet amounts, the MH might even be faster for coin-in if you're comfortable with the Variance, which is what I assume many of these, "Teams sitting early," are doing that for.

"Hey, I can generate slot coin-in at about 97%," that sort of thing.

If it hits early, then it hits early. If it hits early, then there was simply never a (known) play in the first place, so what difference does that make?

I guess the proper time to play depends on what you are playing it for. If you're just looking at the machine without other considerations, (and most of the people playing these are NOT just looking at it without other considerations) it's either +EV or it's not.

Quote: darkoz

So when is proper time to start playing under real world conditions?

Okay, here is my formula for the patient player. This formula is for the lowest jackpot you should play at, with 0 net long-term EV.

j = target jackpot
r = rate of meter rise
m = must-hit-by value
f = value of all fixed wins and slot points

j = m * (1-f-r)/(1-f+r)

To arrive at f, subtract from the return:

1. meter rise
2. value of jackpot reseed, which is 2*r*n/(m-n), where n = jackpot reseed amount.