Quick Trip report- and I'm back

Hi all, after taking about a year and a half off, I am back into my trivial pursuit of low stakes advantage play. I have 6 sessions under my belt in 2 months. My first session I won $500, my second I lost 440, and I'll walk you through tonight's visit below.

I came in to the undisclosed casino to pick up my WHOPPING $10 of free play. I was hoping I could use it on the $5 HD-screen electronic blackjack machines with the models for dealers. I managed to stay alive on the machine for about 45 mins and broke even. The dealer got a curiously high number of 10s showing and the free play earned was terrible. It was worth checking out but I don't think these machines are worth anyone's time. This reinforces my theory that staying away from smiling women showing cleavage is +EV.

My $10 free play would end up in a 8-5 JoB progressive along with $40 that I lost in about 15 minutes, hitting nothing better than a full house.

On to Vent-et-un.

I put $200 down on an empty $15 table and wanted to come out swinging. The Hi-Lo true count meandered between 0 and 2. To my misfortune, the dealer caught most of the breaks. She turned a 5 into a 5+5+10 two hands in a row, for example. In about 20 minutes I was down $300, or -$340 for the trip.

I found a $15 minimum table with a seat open and I invested the last $100 I had on me(cashed out from electronic blackjack earlier). Lady luck returned and I left that table with a profit of $160.

I hopped over to a $10 minimum table where I bought in with $160, playing 2 hands the whole time. Towards the end of my third shoe, at a true count of +3, I had 2x25 out there and got a 14 and 6+6 vs a dealer 6. 14 stands. 6+6 split to 6+5 and 6+6. 6+5 doubled to become 6+5+2 = 13. The 2nd 6+6 split to 16 and 6+3. I had to buy in for my last $100 in order to fund the double down which became a pathetic 6+3+7. So I had $50 on a 16, $50 on a 13, $25 on a 16 and $25 on a 14. I stopped breathing as I watched the dealer flip two beautiful paint cards to give me the +150 swing that would be the hand of the night. I left with a $260 profit here, resulting in a $40 profit for the night.

A rough estimate of my expected value for the night would be -$10 for my first hour on machines +$10 free slot play, and then $20/hr for my 2 hours of blackjack, so with the -340 and +380 swings, I ended up right around expectation.

I hope to keep putting in about 2 hours a week. I'll write trip reports if the stories are worth telling, and will try to be more active in the forums overall. Thanks for reading, -S88

It's okay to "pursue low limit recreational play". That's what makes trip reports so entertaining to read.

You are dreaming if you think you earned $20/hr playing 8 deck blackjack with a 1 to 2.5 spread.

Quote: surrender88s

Hi all, after taking about a year and a half off, I am back into my trivial pursuit of low stakes advantage play. I have 6 sessions under my belt in 2 months. My first session I won $500, my second I lost 440, and I'll walk you through tonight's visit below.

I came in to the undisclosed casino to pick up my WHOPPING $10 of free play. I was hoping I could use it on the $5 HD-screen electronic blackjack machines with the models for dealers. I managed to stay alive on the machine for about 45 mins and broke even. The dealer got a curiously high number of 10s showing and the free play earned was terrible. It was worth checking out but I don't think these machines are worth anyone's time. This reinforces my theory that staying away from smiling women showing cleavage is +EV.

My $10 free play would end up in a 8-5 JoB progressive along with $40 that I lost in about 15 minutes, hitting nothing better than a full house.

On to Vent-et-un.

I put $200 down on an empty $15 table and wanted to come out swinging. The Hi-Lo true count meandered between 0 and 2. To my misfortune, the dealer caught most of the breaks. She turned a 5 into a 5+5+10 two hands in a row, for example. In about 20 minutes I was down $300, or -$340 for the trip.

I found a $15 minimum table with a seat open and I invested the last $100 I had on me(cashed out from electronic blackjack earlier). Lady luck returned and I left that table with a profit of $160.

I hopped over to a $10 minimum table where I bought in with $160, playing 2 hands the whole time. Towards the end of my third shoe, at a true count of +3, I had 2x25 out there and got a 14 and 6+6 vs a dealer 6. 14 stands. 6+6 split to 6+5 and 6+6. 6+5 doubled to become 6+5+2 = 13. The 2nd 6+6 split to 16 and 6+3. I had to buy in for my last $100 in order to fund the double down which became a pathetic 6+3+7. So I had $50 on a 16, $50 on a 13, $25 on a 16 and $25 on a 14. I stopped breathing as I watched the dealer flip two beautiful paint cards to give me the +150 swing that would be the hand of the night. I left with a $260 profit here, resulting in a $40 profit for the night.

A rough estimate of my expected value for the night would be -$10 for my first hour on machines +$10 free slot play, and then $20/hr for my 2 hours of blackjack, so with the -340 and +380 swings, I ended up right around expectation.

I hope to keep putting in about 2 hours a week. I'll write trip reports if the stories are worth telling, and will try to be more active in the forums overall. Thanks for reading, -S88

Nice read. It's always a good day when you win your big bet.

I gotta tell you, living the dream feels pretty, pretty, pretty good!

Welcome back S88.
Thx for the trip report, I like reading trip reports.
I think most here like them, at least those that comment.
I suppose that those that don't like, well suppose they don't read them, and so don't comment?

I remembered your handle quite well, Surrender88s, it sticks, but not much else, so I scanned thru the list of threads you had started in an attempt to refresh/reboot my failing memory.

Read thru a couple, one another trip report, one a 'humans need not apply'.
I watched the video clip on the robot thing, thought provoking. Liked Tanko's hawk attack clip there as well.
Several of your threads had large numbers of views and responses, good job.

Your writing reads easily, nothing fancy but held my attention.
Did I mention I like trip reports ;-? 2F

Hi there, I enjoyed the report. How did you get $20/hr as your blackjack estimate? That seems far too high to me.

Quote: MrGoldenSun

Hi there, I enjoyed the report. How did you get $20/hr as your blackjack estimate? That seems far too high to me.

I worked the numbers a while back. Also, my play is not as rigid as most blackjack players. People will say that you bet your progression no matter what, but really, when the count is good, you are getting +EV whatever you put into the circle. In this situation, I reduced my bet vs. my progression based on the fact that I only had $200 on me and wanted to make it through the end of the rich shoe. I realize this gives up some EV, but it also smooths variance, which I value(as I report my gains and losses directly to the queen of the house).

On the low end, I sit out hands or bet 1 spot, or wong out completely. On the high end, 2 spots that rarely climb to 100 each, depending on circumstances. On average, my spread is 10-2x35, with wonging out occasionally.

Hey surrender, thanks for the trip report! Always fun to read these =).

I do have a question about your blackjack EV/spread... You stated at one point that the TC was +3 and you had 2 hands of 25 (from 2 hands of 10)... this is essentially a $20-$50 spread, which isn't even a 2-1 spread. Most "break even" spreads are about 3-1 or 4-1 pending rules/etc. Unfortunately I find it very very unlikely that you could expect $20/hr with a spread anywhere near this.

IF you have a good game (6D S17 LS) for example, you'd still need an aggressive 15-1 spread to make $20/hour.

HE -.36%... this involves wonging out ANYTHING less than TC -1... assuming 75% PEN, and 100 hands per hour...

TC -1 = 10
TC 0 = 10
TC +1 = 30
TC +2 = 60
TC +3 = 90
TC +4 = 120
TC >= +5 = 150

This comes out to a hair over $20/hour...

Thanks Romes. What about a $10-$100 spread with 87% penetration on 8 deck? Assuming big bet at TC3 and above?

Maybe we are comparing apples to oranges here.

I think Romes (and others) are thinking about expectation under a given strategy and given conditions. I think Surrender88 is saying he calculated $20/hr EV based on the amounts he actually bet under the counts he actually saw. Surrender88, is that correct?

So in other words, if I have a system where I bet $10 unless it's TC +10 or better, and then at TC +10 or better I bet $300, I won't have +EV in the long run because I won't get to bet big often enough. But for a single shoe, we might be at +10 far more often than expected, so when I look back, I got to bet $300 a bunch of times with an edge, so my bets made it such that I had a "positive expectation" on that specific shoe, if you simply added the EV of each starting hand you were dealt.

If that's the case though, I am not sure how you'd do this backward-looking calculation so precisely. Also, if you're thinking about it like that, there's a big problem of trying to define what expectation really means looking backwards.

EDIT: Romes, you said $20-50 "isn't even a 2-1 spread"...but isn't it 1-2.5? Am I misusing the terminology here?

Quote: Romes

IF you have a good game (6D S17 LS) for example, you'd still need an aggressive 15-1 spread to make $20/hour.

HE -.36%... this involves wonging out ANYTHING less than TC -1... assuming 75% PEN, and 100 hands per hour...

This comes out to a hair over $20/hour...

Thanks for this analysis.

$20/hr. sitting out hands where TC<-1.

If you can get away with it.

What would the hourly win rate be if you were unable to sit out, and played every hand with the same spread?

Quote: surrender88s

. This reinforces my theory that staying away from smiling women showing cleavage is +EV.

In more ways than one!!!

Yeah I meant to put 3-1 since pointing out break even spreads are usually 4-1 or 3-1, but apparently hit the wrong number.

Next, what you're referring to MrGoldenSun is Certainty Equivalent (CE). CE is the amount of EV generated in "real time" so to say. Thus, if you see TC +10 five times this shoe, then this shoe's actual EV is much higher than the pre-determined average amount. Over the long run though, the shoes will balance out to the EV previously figured. CE is a way to measure "how much should I have expected to win... tonight."

Quote: surrender88s

Thanks Romes. What about a $10-$100 spread with 87% penetration on 8 deck? Assuming big bet at TC3 and above?

Now, on to the next question... For a $10-$100 spread, on 8D (assuming S17) w/ 85% PEN, I get ~$15/hour (assuming 100 hands per hour) for the following spread:

TC -1 = $10
TC 0 = $10
TC +1 = $25
TC +2 = $50
TC +3 = $75
TC >= +4 = $100

Do note... This is assuming S17, DAS, DA2, 3:2 BJ, and assuming 100 hands per hour. The spread would change if this was 8D H17 as you wouldn't be a favorite (thus up your bet) until TC +2.

Quote: Tanko

...What would the hourly win rate be if you were unable to sit out, and played every hand with the same spread?

Unfortunately off hand I don't have the negative TC Frequencies for anything past -2... as I don't play them =). You should definitely find a reason to be able to wong out. Experience will give you a million ploppy reasons...

1) I gotta respond to this work text/email/call.
2) I've lost too many in a row, I need to sit a few out to stop the bleeding!
3) We've been getting killed, I'm gonna sit out to change it up.
4) I gotta run to the bathroom.
...etc, etc.

Think of it this way though... Every additional negative TC you play, you're adding a coefficient of negative value to your hourly total. You take the advantage, times the frequency, times your bet (table min) and that gives you a "Gain Per Hand." Well, when you're playing negative counts this is a negative number... Thus when you sum up your "hourly rate" this will essentially subtract from your hourly rate. Therefor sitting out negative counts MAKES you money. Find a way to sit out =).

I also go in to great detail on how to set up some simple excel sheets to run these kinds of simple sims in my articles, as well as I posted google docs of example spreadsheets that you can download and simply change the numbers to your respective game/PEN/spread and see the results too.

Romes, thanks, I appreciate it. I feel like I know the game pretty well. Hundreds of hours of practice, and 40 hours in casinos with good notes on each session. Looking at your A to Z article thread again, I remember reviewing it years ago when I was thinking through my bet spread. In the near future I plan on ramping up my play and taking some day/weekend trips. I know I'm playing winning blackjack- and to be honest I don't place a whole lot of value on knowing what my exact EV is. I know it's north of $5/hr, and all this is a process for me. I'll pursue bigger spreads and higher EV as my experience and bankroll grows.

Quote: Romes

Next, what you're referring to MrGoldenSun is Certainty Equivalent (CE). CE is the amount of EV generated in "real time" so to say. Thus, if you see TC +10 five times this shoe, then this shoe's actual EV is much higher than the pre-determined average amount. Over the long run though, the shoes will balance out to the EV previously figured. CE is a way to measure "how much should I have expected to win... tonight."

Right, that's what I was thinking Surrender88 might have been calculating.

In this context, it's a difficult idea for me because where do you stop caring about reality and start caring about expectation? For example, I get dealt 10 v dealer 7. I'm going to double this. Now what do I use for my CE calculation of that play--should I use long-term expectation for 10 v 7 across all counts? Should I instead consider the specific count for this hand? Should I consider the exact cards remaining in the deck and what that means for my outcome distribution?

I know a term called Certainty Equivalent but it means something different. I've heard it used to mean the minimum guaranteed amount of money someone would accept instead of a risky asset, e.g., someone might be equally happy with $45 cash as with a coin flip for $100, which would make the CE of the flip equal to $45. I haven't heard it used like this, so that's interesting.

Unless you're running a team and need to figure out how much "value" each member is bringing to the team (nightly) then I would just stick to EV. Looking at nightly results in any form, be it CE or expectation/standard deviations can be a bit misleading due to the fact that it's so short term a lot can happen. When you get out to the tens of thousands of hands you're playing for anyways, this is when things start to gravitate towards EV and you see it make a lot more sense. In the end you'll come back to EV, so while it's nice to know the nightly CE amounts, that's all it is is food for thought. That way when you have monster counts and get pounded by the dealers 20's and blackjacks, you can say "wow but my CE tonight was 10x my EV!" You know you put in a good nights work even though you had a huge loss, but in the end you'll still be fighting to get to EV by plugging enough hands to get over the hump of variance.

Quote: Romes

I also go in to great detail on how to set up some simple excel sheets to run these kinds of simple sims in my articles, as well as I posted google docs of example spreadsheets that you can download and simply change the numbers to your respective game/PEN/spread and see the results too.

Thanks for all that valuable information Romes.

It seems there is little value in counting unless one uses an aggressive 15-1 spread and can get away with sitting out very aggressively.

Just don't try sitting out at a NMSE table. A player at our table sat out a hand to answer his cell phone, and they wouldn't allow him to bet again until the next shoe.

Surrender88s,

One of the best investments I have made for Blackjack is computer software that shows you your EV, SD, N0, etc. given a particular set of game rules, bankroll, and spread. I personally use CVCX. I know there are other programs by other authors as well.

Pretty sure "how much I should have won tonight" is still EV.....although you can calculate EV many different ways. Could be calculated very generally (i.e.: maybe you're a back counter and only wong in)....back counting for 3 hours and no wong in, you could still claim your hourly EV, since you should have had a wong in but didn't. Or you can calculate EV a bit more specifically, where each wong in is worth $75 on average. More specifically, you could note the count & decks remaining, to come up with a more specific EV. Or you could even (theoretically at least) keep track of how many wagers at each TC you're getting in.

If you kept track of each way to track EV, you'd get different figures each time, for the most part.


I would define CE (Certainty Equivalence) as something like, "How much would someone have to pay me to NOT make that bet?" If someone offers a coin flip giving me 10% advantage for $10,000, it'd have an EV of $1,000. But how much is that worth to me (given my risk tolerance and bankroll)? What if I'm offered a guaranteed $500 in lieu of that? I'll take the $500.....but the guy with the $500k bankroll might be better off making the wager going for the 1k in EV.

I want to join the chorus by saying that I enjoyed reading this and appreciate how well written your quickie TR was, so thanks for doing it. It made it fun to read about playing games I know nothing about. I got to play pit games with your money. Carry on.