Isn't the correct probability .235294, a.k.a., (12/51)? Once you are dealt the first card from a 52 card deck, your odds of getting a matching suit for the second will be the 12 remaining suited cards, divided by the 51 total cards that remain. I am not sure where .232278 comes from. It's a small difference, but what am I missing?

Quote:AyecarumbaI noticed on the table in the Wizard's analysis of this new game at the Golden Nugget, that the probability of getting two suited cards to win the "Pair or Suited" side bet is .232278.

Isn't the correct probability .235294, a.k.a., (12/51)? Once you are dealt the first card from a 52 card deck, your odds of getting a matching suit for the second will be the 12 remaining suited cards, divided by the 51 total cards that remain. I am not sure where .232278 comes from. It's a small difference, but what am I missing?

AK suited has its own pay line.

Quote: I constructed a reasonably simple strategy, and was very surprised to see it simulate at only a -0.60% EV! This is pretty good for a carnival game, which usually has between a 2.5% to 3.5% house edge. My simple strategy isn’t very optimal, and I estimate the actual house edge is very close to 0. (The error EV of my simple strategy simulates around 0.5%, so an optimal strategy would yield close to 0 EV.).

With a advanced strategy this game could have a lower house edge than BJ...

Quote:WizardPlease keep in mind that I took the easy route with that page and based it on the math report by Stanley Ko. It takes a lot of time to analyze poker-based games myself, so looked at it as reinventing the wheel. I will add a link to the Discount Gambling strategy.

You should add something about your own play ;)

BTW I looked at it whenever I passed through the Nugget. I saw a few more bad beats like those we saw the first night. It strikes me that straights and flushes ought to be rather common. after all, in regular 5 card draw poker, you get a lot of hands with 3 to a straight or to a flush; those are straights and flushes in this game.

For my odds site I try to stick to the facts as much as I can. The rest may be interested to know that Nareed was watching me play over my shoulder, as I think I went about 2-20 at that game.

Quote:WizardFor my odds site I try to stick to the facts as much as I can. The rest may be interested to know that Nareed was watching me play over my shoulder, as I think I went about 2-20 at that game.

At least the dealer was quite sympathetic, even if he kept pushing for side bets.