Please calculate the PA (Dice Control)

I have opted to start a new thread on the topic of optimal wagering on the craps layout. The premise is the shooter is able to manipulate the outcome of the rolls with both dice remaining on axis greater than 45% of the time.

I have a number of different strategies in my playbook and I'd like to know which give me the greatest edge.

See example below:

Boymimbo:

"Why bother with the doey-don't if you know you can throw sixes and eights or fours and tens to your heart's content? If Seven's claim that he can hit the 4 and 10 with the same probability as the seven, why doesn't he just take a line of credit out against his house, hit the 200 or so craps tables in Vegas, buy the 4 or 10 for Purples ($500) take his 42.86% (39*.5 - 21*.5)/21 Player Advantage and run for the hills? That's an expected value of $214/resolved bet. Since a bet would be resolved in 6 rolls, that's an expected income of $3,571/hr."



Since no one here, nor anyone else in the gaming industry, has an ounce of faith in precision shooting, I feel it is safe for me to talk candidly about what I can do. As a teaser, and not that you even deserve it, ;) I'm letting you in on a move that has never before been made public. It's quite surreal -- I can give away my biggest secrets and as you all consider me a, what was the word, "kook"?, I still have free license to chip away at the tables with an enormous edge. Life is funny.

Hard 6/8 Preset: 4&4 on top; 1&1 facing; 2&5 on sides
Bet $100 on Hard 6 (or Hard 8)
Lay $240 against the 6 (or 8)

4 Sevens; 1 Hard 6; 1 Hard 8; 1 Two; 2 Fours; 2 Fives; 2 Nines; 2 Tens; 1 Twelve

Calculate the edge on that!

Decided from here on in, will only reply to serious questions.

Hey seven shooter can you and I meet up so I can put my $$$ on you? I will use it to pay off my student loans so it will be going towards a good cause :)

PA 100% on the Hard 6 and 8 and 40.8% on the Lay based on the magical sixteen sided die you're working with.

So why are you talking to idiots like us who don't listen to you when you can be bankrupting the casinos?

And now, the following commercial message.

Quote:

Link here

"As long as the dice are in my hand, I have absolute control over what happens on the table. I can make cold dice turn hot and make hot tables ice-cold. I can change anyone into a winner at will and can reduce any winner into a loser on a whim. Provided that I'm the one who's rolling, I will never lose. I never lose because I play with a massive advantage over the house. I am one-of-a-kind; I have the Midas Touch; I am your cash cow. I am the best precision shooter in the world and I make money."

Seven Shooter

The best precision shooter in the world is living right here in Vancouver, BC.

All bull***t aside, I have the ability to consistently beat the casinos at the game of casino craps.

I have accomplished this feat not by employing a bogus system: I am not a system-scammer. Nor can I attribute my profits to the use of a "magical" progression in a futile attempt to buck the odds. No system or progression can overcome the house advantage.
The reason I win is simply due to a combination of science, math and logic. Actually, my dice-throw is quite the physical phenomenon.

Consider this, "How much money have you lost since you began playing at the casino? How much money will you continue to lose if you keep doing what you have done in the past?" What are you waiting for: that elusive, mythical hot streak? Eventually, in the long run, all luck runs dry.

I can teach you to never lose again. I can show you how to turn a profit EVERY BLOODY SESSION.

On a personal note, I am retiring from a long-standing career (yes, my day-job) come summer 2010. I am retiring and I am only thirty-six years old. I will never have to worry about money again and my standard of living keeps increasing exponentially. I am planning on travelling the world using my talents in casinos across the globe.

I am offering personal instruction in the science of dice-setting and dice-throwing. I am doing this not because I need the money (quite the contrary) but for two other separate and straightforward reasons: 1) I am planning on forming an exclusive team of precision shooters to take the casinos for literally millions; and, 2) I am tired of seeing good people getting fleeced by the casino swindlers.

I offer an eight-session course of private & in-person, one-to-one tutorials for $2400. I charge per lesson ($300) and never require an exorbitant fee in advance like online hucksters. Immediately upon receipt of the first lesson fee I will also provide you with a copy of the session syllabus. Learn at your own pace and pay as you go -- quit whenever you like (though no one ever has). Recoup your investment soon after by putting to use your newfound skills.

Upon successful completion of the course with sufficient practice and self-discipline you, too, will be on your way to financial freedom. Rediscover the meaning of, "joie de vivre".

Contact me at xxxxxxxxxxxx@hotmail.com to arrange our first session.

We now return to our regular programming, already in progress.

Calculate your theoretical player advantage, estimate the variance, and then Kelly bet.

It's been proven to be the optimal betting system

Quote: sevenout

And now, the following commercial message.

Quote:

Link here

"As long as the dice are in my hand, I have absolute control over what happens on the table. I can make cold dice turn hot and make hot tables ice-cold. I can change anyone into a winner at will and can reduce any winner into a loser on a whim. Provided that I'm the one who's rolling, I will never lose. I never lose because I play with a massive advantage over the house. I am one-of-a-kind; I have the Midas Touch; I am your cash cow. I am the best precision shooter in the world and I make money."

Seven Shooter

The best precision shooter in the world is living right here in Vancouver, BC.

All bull***t aside, I have the ability to consistently beat the casinos at the game of casino craps.

I have accomplished this feat not by employing a bogus system: I am not a system-scammer. Nor can I attribute my profits to the use of a "magical" progression in a futile attempt to buck the odds. No system or progression can overcome the house advantage.
The reason I win is simply due to a combination of science, math and logic. Actually, my dice-throw is quite the physical phenomenon.

Consider this, "How much money have you lost since you began playing at the casino? How much money will you continue to lose if you keep doing what you have done in the past?" What are you waiting for: that elusive, mythical hot streak? Eventually, in the long run, all luck runs dry.

I can teach you to never lose again. I can show you how to turn a profit EVERY BLOODY SESSION.

On a personal note, I am retiring from a long-standing career (yes, my day-job) come summer 2010. I am retiring and I am only thirty-six years old. I will never have to worry about money again and my standard of living keeps increasing exponentially. I am planning on travelling the world using my talents in casinos across the globe.

I am offering personal instruction in the science of dice-setting and dice-throwing. I am doing this not because I need the money (quite the contrary) but for two other separate and straightforward reasons: 1) I am planning on forming an exclusive team of precision shooters to take the casinos for literally millions; and, 2) I am tired of seeing good people getting fleeced by the casino swindlers.

I offer an eight-session course of private & in-person, one-to-one tutorials for $2400. I charge per lesson ($300) and never require an exorbitant fee in advance like online hucksters. Immediately upon receipt of the first lesson fee I will also provide you with a copy of the session syllabus. Learn at your own pace and pay as you go -- quit whenever you like (though no one ever has). Recoup your investment soon after by putting to use your newfound skills.

Upon successful completion of the course with sufficient practice and self-discipline you, too, will be on your way to financial freedom. Rediscover the meaning of, "joie de vivre".

Contact me at xxxxxxxxxxxx@hotmail.com to arrange our first session.

We now return to our regular programming, already in progress.

Yes, this is from my Facebook Page. I've never mentioned it in any of the threads in this forum. One of my intentions when deciding to join this site was to exploit the knowledge and resources of the statisticians here, since I, myself, am not a math person.

I don't feel it is appropriate to surreptitiously surf the net and post another person's info without first obtaining their consent. I'm not even sure I follow the logic behind your reasoning. Are you trying to "expose" me as something I'm not? Moreover, one look at your membership history tells us that other than this post, you have contributed absolutely zilch to the diverse community of threads found in this arena.

As for the content of my Facebook page, I stand by my claims. For the record, I'd like everyone here to remember that it was not my decision to post extraneous information in this forum.

Again, I am embarrassed at the maturity level of some of my fellow members.

Further still, since joining this community I've been bombarded with an overwhelming amount of negative energy. I am tired of having to defend myself from all of this harassment. Skepticism is one thing, but this has really gone far enough and I just don't need the contagion of bad vibes from people who are obviously in a bad place and time in their own lives.

I am greatly disappointed at how I've been received -- especially, from my perspective, when it comes to practical knowledge and talent, I'm leagues above the rest.

I will not be contributing to this forum in the future unless it is to respond to serious inquiries regarding craps and precision-shooting. With the exception of a handful of childish, mindless loiterers here, I believe the Wizard's site to be of excellent quality and I sincerely hope he continues circulating accurate and innovative material amongst deserving members.

Sevenshooter

why is that worth your time when you could be throwing the dice

Quote: boymimbo

PA 100% on the Hard 6 and 8 and 40.8% on the Lay based on the magical sixteen sided die you're working with.

So why are you talking to idiots like us who don't listen to you when you can be bankrupting the casinos?

I don't think you understand the fundamentals of dice control.

I will explain to you what is basic knowledge in the precision shooting community -- these really are the ABCs. I do this only because you have personally invested time into taking a serious look at dice control and my assertions. But I don't appreciate snide remarks, either.

Suppose the shooter has arranged the dice into the Hard 6/8 Preset.
Assume the shooter is able to keep the dice rotating in unison without going off-axis launch through landing. To get the edge, the shooter must be able to consistenly accomplish this more than 44.44% of the time.

Get some dice, if this helps. 4 & 4 on top; 1 & 1 facing front; 2 & 5 on the sides.

Count the number of sides: 4 (1 H8; 1 Twelve; 1 H6; 1 Two)

One die a quarter rotation forward: 4 (1 Five; 1 Ten; 1 Nine; 1 Four)

Same die one more quarter rotation: 4 (1 Seven; 1 Seven; 1 Seven; 1 Seven)

Same die again 1/4 rotation: 4 (1 Ten; 1 Nine; 1 Four; 1 Five)

Total: 16 (4 Sevens; 1 Two; 2 Fours; 2 Fives; 1 H6; 1 H8; 2 Nines; 2 Tens; 1 Twelve)

Please don't respond telling me no human being can keep the dice on-axis one hundred percent of the time. I am aware of this. Good shooters perform well over the 44.44% mark.

Astute readers will see the manifold applications presets offer (for example, using this preset playing the Don't, odds change from 6-5 to 4-1 against the point).

Re: Why I've invested my own time trying to teach others here about dice-setting: Considering the abhorrent attitude around here, I'm beginning to wonder myself.

Quote: sevenshooter

No system or progression can overcome the house advantage.

This sounds quite shocking coming from sevenshooter!

I am very well versed on dice control. I actually believe that it can be done (as I said in another post) with enough practice, concentration and discipline. My degree is in Physics and I have an advanced degree in science from a university from the West End of 10th Avenue in your home town (ok, it's in basket-weaving, but hey, it's a degree!). However, from my reading on the Golden Touch Control site, what I have learned is that for me, I make far more money at my day job (which I love) than the choice of living a gambling lifestyle eking out a few percent house advantage. I know that if you can even manipulate your 7s to 1 ratio from 6:1 to about 6:17:1, you will have an advantage on the 6 and 8 bets.

You asked for a calculation of the Player Advantage based on the one of 16 equally probable outcomes based on a 2 and 5 missing from the dice (no 3, no 11), resulting in 2 four sided dice. Therefore the advantages as I calculated are correct based on the scenario that you gave me. You did not supply me with the variable of accuracy or axis / off-axis throws, so I assumed you wanted the advantages with ZERO error on the axis, whence was borne the magical 16 sided-die comment.

You then stated that you were looking for help from the statistical folks on this site, but whenever results that debunked the Oscar Grind (through thousands of unbiased simulations), your reply was that you "must have been lucky" to have won 15 sessions in a row. On top of that, The Wizard's own site (from which this site was born) cites throughout the philosophy that no betting system can overcome the house edge.

Then you profess that in fact, it is possible to get a profit by being on axis more than 44.44% of the time, so you are quite aware of the statistics and math around dice control. So why are you asking for the stats? You don't need us.

And now that I know that you are selling a dice control class, I will happily give you all the odds and statistics that you need, for $200/hour.

Quote: sevenshooter

Yes, this is from my Facebook Page. I've never mentioned it in any of the threads in this forum. One of my intentions when deciding to join this site was to exploit the knowledge and resources of the statisticians here, since I, myself, am not a math person.

I don't feel it is appropriate to surreptitiously surf the net and post another person's info without first obtaining their consent. I'm not even sure I follow the logic behind your reasoning. Are you trying to "expose" me as something I'm not?

As for the content of my Facebook page, I stand by my claims. For the record, I'd like everyone here to remember that it was not my decision to post extraneous information in this forum.

Again, I am embarrassed at the maturity level of some of my fellow members.

Further still, since joining this community I've been bombarded with an overwhelming amount of negative energy. I am tired of having to defend myself from all of this harrassment. Skepticism is one thing, but this has really gone far enough and I just don't need the contagion of bad vibes from people who are obviously in a bad place and time in their own lives.

I am greatly disappointed at how I've been received -- especially, from my perspective, when it comes to practical knowledge and talent, I'm leagues above the rest.

I will not be contributing to this forum in the future unless it is to respond to serious inquiries regarding craps and precision-shooting. With the exception of a handful of childish, mindless loiterers here, I believe the Wizard's site to be of excellent quality and I sincerely hope he continues circulating accurate and innovative material amongst deserving members.
Sevenshooter

Wrong. Anything you post on the internet is public, and you forget that at your peril. People will find whatever you put out there, believe me, and they have the right to link to it, if not post it elsewhere.

To me, this is the smoking gun. This borders on sham huckstering. You misrepresented yourself to the forum in the guise of a curious player/system tester to "exploit" (your words) the math knowledge of the forum members.

I feel confident I speak for the majority here when I say don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Quote: boymimbo

You then stated that you were looking for help from the statistical folks on this site, but whenever results that debunked the Oscar Grind (through thousands of unbiased simulations), your reply was that you "must have been lucky" to have won 15 sessions in a row. On top of that, The Wizard's own site (from which this site was born) cites throughout the philosophy that no betting system can overcome the house edge.

Then you profess that in fact, it is possible to get a profit by being on axis more than 44.44% of the time, so you are quite aware of the statistics and math around dice control. So why are you asking for the stats? You don't need us.

That's right, I don't need you to make money. I can do that fine, on my own.

I was striving for some kind of mutualistic relationship -- from the beginning I've admitted I could always use help in the math department. I thought it would be a fair exchange if I reciprocated by answering members' questions about precision-shooting.

Quote: teddys

Quote: sevenshooter

Yes, this is from my Facebook Page. I've never mentioned it in any of the threads in this forum. One of my intentions when deciding to join this site was to exploit the knowledge and resources of the statisticians here, since I, myself, am not a math person.

I don't feel it is appropriate to surreptitiously surf the net and post another person's info without first obtaining their consent. I'm not even sure I follow the logic behind your reasoning. Are you trying to "expose" me as something I'm not?

As for the content of my Facebook page, I stand by my claims. For the record, I'd like everyone here to remember that it was not my decision to post extraneous information in this forum.

Again, I am embarrassed at the maturity level of some of my fellow members.

Further still, since joining this community I've been bombarded with an overwhelming amount of negative energy. I am tired of having to defend myself from all of this harrassment. Skepticism is one thing, but this has really gone far enough and I just don't need the contagion of bad vibes from people who are obviously in a bad place and time in their own lives.

I am greatly disappointed at how I've been received -- especially, from my perspective, when it comes to practical knowledge and talent, I'm leagues above the rest.

I will not be contributing to this forum in the future unless it is to respond to serious inquiries regarding craps and precision-shooting. With the exception of a handful of childish, mindless loiterers here, I believe the Wizard's site to be of excellent quality and I sincerely hope he continues circulating accurate and innovative material amongst deserving members.
Sevenshooter

Wrong. Anything you post on the internet is public, and you forget that at your peril. People will find whatever you put out there, believe me, and they have the right to link to it, if not post it elsewhere.

To me, this is the smoking gun. This borders on sham huckstering. You misrepresented yourself to the forum in the guise of a curious player/system tester to "exploit" (your words) the math knowledge of the forum members.

I feel confident I speak for the majority here when I say don't let the door hit you on the way out.

You see, the difference between people like you and people like me is that you are a loser. I use this word in the sense that in the gambling universe, there are winners and there are losers. Do not mistake this as an attack on your essence as a person.

You apparently like to gamble, yet you do so at the mercy of the house advantage. You justify your habit expressing a thorough knowledge of rules and of odds. You are consciously aware that you have no chance at making money in the long run yet you persist to play under the presumption that your "statistical knowledge" magically makes you better than everyone else around you. I call this common stupidity. You are just another patsy being taken for a ride.

I would never wittingly play a game where I knew I was the mark. I would not chalk up my losses and "knowingly" claim it was all done for "entertainment value".

I believe it was a mistake of me to offer my guidance here. Evidently, the overwhelming majority of you are not ready for it.

I am also convinced that I have been nothing short of a gentleman despite having been accosted by your denigrating remarks which border on harassment. It is with the same manners and self-control that I make my exit.

Good luck to all.

Sevenshooter


"By the time the fool has learned the game, the real players have already dispersed".

I HATE to jump into this fray, but I believe that if there are effective "control shooters"...their numbers are VERY few. I play blackjack almost exclusively and admit that craps is not my game. I understand the dice setting and trajectory. That being said, how do shooters get around the problem of the foam wall with little cones on it on a craps table? Even in my limited craps experience, I've been told by the crew to make sure the dice hits the wall. I respect Scoblete and others who have made those claims, but I'm not convinced it's not a scam to sell books/lessons either.

Seven: What a grand exit! Don't worry, you will land on your feet somewhere else, just remember your mantra: "from my perspective, when it comes to practical knowledge and talent, I'm leagues above the rest." Man were we all lucky to learn from the best. Too bad our time had to be cut short.

Enjoy the free simulations, add them to your curriculum and consider cutting those who ran them a check when (and if) you collect another $2400.

Regarding your so-called 'contributions' and 'guidance', your numerous statements bragging about them have got to be some of the funniest things I have ever heard on the internet. Seriously, amazing stuff. Sorry for the 'negative energy' and 'bad vibes' you had to endure from the 'losers' when we didn't validate your posts.

I hope everyone reading here knows the truth and what you write in internet forums are likely oceans apart.

Quote: boymimbo

I am very well versed on dice control. I actually believe that it can be done (as I said in another post) with enough practice, concentration and discipline. My degree is in Physics and I have an advanced degree in science from a university from the West End of 10th Avenue in your home town (ok, it's in basket-weaving, but hey, it's a degree!).

So now that we don't have Sevenshooter to kick around anymore, maybe we can have a good discussion on this topic. I'm curious why so many smart and sane people believe dice control is possible (I'm quoting boymimbo but many others have said the same).

I get that you only need to have a very small influence on the dice to make the game profitable, but how would you even know if you had this influence?

Like boymimbo said in the other thread, a small percentage of people will be lucky even over thousands of rolls of the dice. How many rolls would you have to record in order to show a statistically significant influence? I know that the number will vary depending on how much you can influence the dice, but I'm not familiar enough with the claims of precision shooters to know exactly how much control they claim to have.

I've read the Wizard's page on this, and it seems like there's no hard evidence for this, and that nobody has ever proven it under controlled conditions. While this isn't reason enough to rule it out, it makes me very skeptical.

So what is the non-kook argument in favor of dice control?

I doubt that Seven's gone. Anyway, I think that to measure a success in dice control, you would have to keep measurements of thousands of rolls and compare it to the normal distributions to determine how you are doing against expected values. Once you are consistently out of the range of the distribution, you can claim that you have control on the dice.

For example, for 3600 rolls, you would expect to see 100 2, 200 3s, 300 4s, 400 5s, 500 6s, and 600 7s.

You then calculation the variance as (np(1-p)^.5. So for a seven, np(1-p) = (3600*(1/6)(5/6))^.5 = (3600 x 5/36)^.5 = 500 ^ .5 = 22.36. Generally, you can use this approximation when both np and n(1-p) > 10.

Anyway, you can plug your actual results into a binomial calculator to figure out your results. For example, say that you threw 550 sevens instead of 600 sevens as expected. The binomial calculator shows that the probability of throwing 550 sevens or less in 3,600 trials is .01274. That means that in a random sample, about 1 in 78 people can throw 550 sevens or less in 3,600 trials. I BELIEVE to prove yourself as actually being a dice controller, you would need to be at 1 in 100 or less. And if you are throwing sevens less, you can throw other numbers more and that can be measured as well. And you can't use your kitchen table to practice... you should be practicing at a realistic setting, and for that reason, you can find on the internet a number of craps practice setups all the way to full craps tables to practice on.

WinCraps supposedly is great software to calculate your edge based on the results of certain sets and your throws based on how you set the dice.

Now, as for learning dice control itself, there are plenty of classes (thousands of dollars) and DVDs out there that claim to teach it. But it is not just the set, it is the grip, how the dice are thrown (on axis, with minimal spin), where the dice hit on the felt, and the reaction to the back wall. That's just the throw. Then there is the analysis and discipline that goes with it. In all cases, you want to eliminate all randomness from the throw, which means a minimal reaction to the felt when the dice hit and the back wall. The goal is to minimize the randomness. My personal belief is that of course it can be done, but you require a number of traits to do it successfully. You will need to invest (gamble?) in a craps setup and in the dice control classes, not to mention the hours and days of practice and analysis that you'll have to do to tell you what to bet. That takes alot of discipline and perserverance. And then you have to take that skill into a real casino, where you'll have to have your shooting spot available, no interference on the felt (chips) to shoot and avoid all of the distractions there, not to mention waiting for your turn.

And of course you need to have the concentration and physical skills as well. I think that if you have strong analytical, discipline, and perseverance skills, you are probably fairly successful in your day job as well.

Chances are that if you are a frequent and habitual craps player that wants to make a living at the casino, you are already pretty much a compulsive gambler. You will be overcome by the compulsiveness in you to push bets and do things outside of what the strategy calls for. I know I would be.

And I think like all advantage players at a casino (counters, dice-setters, video poker players, sports betters, cheaters) it becomes a job, not a golden ticket to retire on.

Anyway, I expect a fairly heavy retort from a few members of this community. It's been that kind of day.

Quote: teddys

You misrepresented yourself to the forum in the guise of a curious player/system tester to "exploit" (your words) the math knowledge of the forum members.

You should probably check a dictionary definition of 'exploit':

1: to make productive use of; utilize
2: to make use of meanly or unfairly for one's own advantage

Sure, some of that sounds bad, but I think SevenShooter's intention was productive. I.E. for the good of all members that wanted to listen.

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

Fair enough. I think your interpretation is reasonable. "Exploit" usually has a negative connotation, though. Now that he's gone, I don't feel like giving him the benefit of the doubt.