Argument about Hedging in Craps

My buddy says if you make a Come bet while you have a Pass Line bet, you are hedging your bets, thus doing disadvantageous betting. His claim is that if you are trying to hit your number, make a Come bet, and a '7' comes out, you can see how you hedged, the Come bet paying and the Line bet losing. And he says if you keep making Come bets while trying to hit your number, you will get a better feel that it is disadvantageous betting.

I say Hedging would be, say, a bet on "Any 7" while you have a pass line bet with a number to hit. And that the multiple Come bets are independent, only seeming to be associated.

I have to admit multiple Come bets don't seem to be a good idea, but I think it is just the factor of the more betting you do against a house edge, the more you press the expected outcome.

As far as hedging or not, who's right?

I would have to run a simulation to prove this, but it seems to me that come bets are positively correlated to a pass line bet already on a point. Yes, on the first roll of the come bet they are negatively correlated, but if you get past that, then it becomes positively correlated. I think if player A made 1000 bets on the pass line, and player B made 1000 total bets on the pass and come, betting the come every opportunity, that player B would have the greater standard deviation. To conclude, I think come bets are an anti-hedge.

Personally, I like matching my pass line bet with a come bet a couple of times each game. This way, if someone 7's out quickly I feel like it's not a complete loss. Key word is feel, it makes me feel better... that's about it I believe.

odiousgambit -

I don't consider it hedging.

Oh, sure, having a come bet out when the shooter seven's out, makes the loss slightly less, but does it really hurt less?

I mean, was the purpose of the come bet to make a seven out hurt less?

I kinda think that the bettor would be hoping that the shooter NOT throw a 7.


Besides, if the bettor already has a come and pass bet, and taking odds, the new come bet, as a hedge, comes up way short.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

odiousgambit -

I don't consider it hedging.

Oh, sure, having a come bet out when the shooter seven's out, makes the loss slightly less, but does it really hurt less?

I mean, was the purpose of the come bet to make a seven out hurt less?

I kinda think that the bettor would be hoping that the shooter NOT throw a 7.


Besides, if the bettor already has a come and pass bet, and taking odds, the new come bet, as a hedge, comes up way short.

Maybe somebody should simulate it as the Wizard suggests. I don't follow the logic of increased variance being expected, but I can believe it, it is a wild thing to do to build up a bunch of Come Bets, so exciting that at some point you can be sure I've done that if I'm at a Craps Table. It's good to know it isnt supposed to hurt the EV.

I guess I won that bet [with my friend], the Wiz's authority has been accepted. My friend's strategy, which he says he won't change, is to make Place Bets on the 6 and 8 while waiting for a point to settle. This instead of more Come Bets, and I'd have to say that's reasonable. You sure see people do it. The HE is about the same as for the Pass or Come I believe.

It's not really a hedge because it only takes into account a small percentage of outcomes. A hedge is usually used to lock in a win. If the point is, say, 5, you are going to win 11% of the time, and a come bet will win (7&11) 22% (and win with a pass line loss 75% of those times) of the time. That leaves 67% that the Come bet either loses on a non pass line winner (2/3/12), or is not resolved and is now another bet negatively correlated to a future Come Bet Immediate Winner (7). Because 67% of the time you are adding another bet that wants to avoid a 7, I would agree with the Wizard that it's an anti-hedge if you are flat betting. I suppose if you were multiplying the Come bet every time to a number that would offset previous Come bets, it could become a type of hedge, but that would be a theoretical table that had no maximum bets, because it would get pretty high pretty fast.

As I said, it's not a hedge unless you are giving up some return to assure a win. It's like saying you are hedging your bet on the Red in Roulette by betting the "First 12". Both might win, but both still can lose, and a loss does not assure a win. Even the suggestion that "Any 7" is a hedge is not accurate, because you still have a good chance of losing both bets (The point nor a 7 appears on the roll, but the 7 comes sometime in the future after you've lost too much on the Any 7.)

Quote: Wizard

I would have to run a simulation to prove this, but it seems to me that come bets are positively correlated to a pass line bet already on a point. Yes, on the first roll of the come bet they are negatively correlated, but if you get past that, then it becomes positively correlated. I think if player A made 1000 bets on the pass line, and player B made 1000 total bets on the pass and come, betting the come every opportunity, that player B would have the greater standard deviation. To conclude, I think come bets are an anti-hedge.

Not sure what you're saying here.

Player A makes 1000 pass bets
Player B makes 1000 pass bet, PLUS makes come bets at every opportunity
OR
Player A makes 1000 pass bets
Player B makes pass bets and come bets at every opportunity until he/she has made a TOTAL of 1000 bets

In the first case, player B has a much greater standard deviation, and a much greater expected loss. In the second case, the total number of bets is the same, the expected loss is the same, but it seems to me there is a partial hedge effect because of the comeout seven on the come offsetting the seven out on the pass.

Maybe I will run a couple of simulations and see what comes out.

One thing I am sure of:

For a given bet handle and ev, fewer larger bets have a higher standard deviation than more lower bets. For example:

$5 pass, 300 bets, ev = -$21.21, SD = $86.59
$10 pass, 150 bets, ev = -$21.21, SD = $122.46

This is because the more bets you make, the more distinct outcomes there are.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

The come bet after a point is established is not a hedge simply because the intent is for another point to be set and the bet to play out, likely with free odds. The fact that it offers some protection against a seven is incidental.

For the come bet to be a hedge, it would have to equal the pass line bet plus odds. Say you bet $5 and took 10X odds for a total of $55. Then your come bet as protection against a seven would have to be $55, so you'd be paid the amount you're risking in the pass line bet. That way a seven lets you get out without any loss.

But the point of a hedge is to protect an amount of money at risk, not to risk more money. If the shooter throws a 2, 3 or 12, you lose the "hedge." if he throws a point, you're now risking the $55 "hedge" bet. It makes no sense as a hedge.

It is funny though, and I thought of this after I wrote my part above last week. Nareed says (and in the past I've agreed) that the protection against the 7 is incidental, but it is what gives the Come bet the lower HA than any place or buy bet.

removed
silly
Sally

just saw this, thanks!