Jame's Grosjean's carnival game strategy cards

Las Vegas Advisor is now selling a set of 8 table game strategy cards developed by James Grosjean. With all due respect to the Wizard, Grosjean is probably one of the best gaming mathematicians out there, although his position is more adversarial towards the casinos than the Wiz's.

The cards provide strategies for Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, Let it Ride, Caribbean Stud, Flop Poker, Mississippi Stud and others.

It should be emphasized that these strategies are not for the advantage play techniques Grosjean himself employs. This is for mathematically correct basic strategy based on only normally obtained information.

It could be argued that one shouldn't be playing these games anyway, since they all carry a (sometimes substantial) house edge. I, however, would disagree. People are going to play these games anyway. I often like to take a shot at Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, and I play the correct strategy, which saves me a lot of money. Anytime you can provide good info to the players, I think it is a good thing. What do others think?

At first, I thought the image showed a single card with the strategy for all 8 games on it, and I was going to express skepticism about describing the strategy for Ultimate Texas Hold'em in a single paragraph. Then I realized that the image shows 8 cards all overlapping each other.

Quote: teddys

It could be argued that one shouldn't be playing these games anyway, since they all carry a (sometimes substantial) house edge.

Gambling is supposed to be first and foremost fun. People choose their entertainment. No one forces one man to tie string to look like a fly and sit there fishing. No one forces someone to play Let It Ride. Given the festive atmosphere, the presence of friends who get to cast a vote, the imbibing of free drinks, often in large quantity... one can well wind up playing a game that is less than optimal but that doesn't mean it should be played in a less than optimal manner.

Talk to some players at a carnival game about house edge and they will reply that they don't have any edges, they are female and only have curves. Talk to some players about optimal play and they will slur something about "I'm in a casino??". Strategy cards may or may not help some of these players, but the information will never hurt them.

Quote: FleaStiff

Gambling is supposed to be first and foremost fun. People choose their entertainment.

Flee, I couldn't agree more. I think one thing that some people in this industry has forgotten, especially when it comes to table games, is that they are supposed to be fun! The point of a carnival game is to offer a player the ability to play a FUN game with the possibility to win a large amount of money any given hand or even stringing a few nice hands together. Of course a game with a high theoretical hold can drain someones stack very quickly and make them not want to play a game again, but I cant even think how many times I've sat at a blackjack table and played optimal strategy and still lost several hands in a row losing everything. Sometimes you just don't get lucky and isn't trying to get lucky what casinos are all about!?!

Two perfect examples of this come from roulette and four card poker. Roulette as everyone know is one of the most popular games ever and will never fade away. People love taking a chance on betting a number even though the house edge on a single number is over %5, to try and take the 35 to 1 payout. Also, plenty of people will just sit and play the Aces up wager in four card even though it caries a high house edge (from time to time myself included). People forget, even game developers, that for most people the thought of sitting down and having a chance to win a 50 to 1 or even 100 to 1 payout is much more exciting and fun than sitting down at a blackjack table and trying to grind out a large number of winning hands.

Quote: mrsuit31

People forget, even game developers, that for most people the thought of sitting down and having a chance to win a 50 to 1 or even 100 to 1 payout is much more exciting and fun than sitting down at a blackjack table and trying to grind out a large number of winning hands.

This is true. Thats why roulette draws people in. They love
hitting a number with a stack of chips on it. Watch their
faces when the dealer slides a hundred roulette chips back
to them, with two blacks and two greens on top. Its like
Christmas morning.

deleted

All it takes is for your average ploppie to go with their
'gut' once, and be right. From then on they think their
gut beats the correct way to play.

anyone who understands that these cards are good value at $20 probably knows a little strategy already.
I honestly cant imagine your average player seeing these and spending $20 on them.
Its either in you to look for the best play, or it isnt.

deleted

-deleted-

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Just look at bj. With all the great info on it, 99% of players still dont play optimally.

So what? 99 percent don't drive optimally, eat optimally, make coffee optimally or play tennis optimally either.

deleted

Quote: teddys

With all due respect to the Wizard, Grosjean is probably one of the best gaming mathematicians out there...

Well, I think that depends on what we mean by "best". I'm guessing they both arrive at the right answer for the overwhelming majority of gambling questions. Grosjean has certainly pioneered very creative new angles and ideas, which are obviously important, but what's "best" to me about the Wizard is that he's devoted over a solid decade to providing the mathematically-correct strategies to every conceivable casino game, to the public, for free. Sure, Grosjean knows his stuff, but I think the Wizard gets props for sharing his voluminous analyses with the world, in an easily-accessible format. No one else has come close to providing that kind of resource to our community.

So the Wizard is my favorite, for the sheer volume of information he's provided to us.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Well, I think that depends on what we mean by "best". I'm guessing they both arrive at the right answer for the overwhelming majority of gambling questions. Maybe Grosjean is better at some of the more esoteric stuff (I don't know), but that doesn't interest me much either way. What's "best" to me about the Wizard is that he's devoted over a solid decade to providing the mathematically-correct strategies to every conceivable casino game, to the public, for free. Advanced skills might be nice, but I think the Wizard should get props for sharing his voluminous analyses with the world, in an easily-accessible format. No one else has come close to providing that kind of resource to our community.

Not that Grosjean hasn't made super-important contributions, too. It's just that the Wizard is my favorite, for the sheer volume of information he's provided to us.

I agree with everything you said. Someone pointed out that you can get all the info on this site for free. This is just the same thing provided in handy card form for $20. Myself, I'll take free over $20 any day, no matter how nice the font is.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

What's "best" to me about the Wizard is that he's devoted over a solid decade to providing the mathematically-correct strategies to every conceivable casino game, to the public, for free.

A fuzzy picture of cards doesn't convince me that there is anything on those cards that is not already on the WizardofOdds site. Perhaps someone will buy one and see if there is actually some strategy point that is new.


Learning the best strategy in a game where there is an inherent huge house advantage seems like kind of a wast of time. I don't find carnival games fun. The Hee Haw strategy seems the most appropriate. Doc, it hurts when I do this. .. Well, don't do that!

Quote: WizardofEngland

anyone who understands that these cards are good value at $20 probably knows a little strategy already.
I honestly cant imagine your average player seeing these and spending $20 on them.
Its either in you to look for the best play, or it isnt.

Amen. How long would you have to gamble at a $5 table to make the $20 cost a positive ev situation? I would also thinkAnyone who cares enough about the house edge on these games already knows that the info is available for free on the interwebs

That Grosjean would come up with this kind of
corny idea to make money is baffling to me. This
is info you can get from a dozen sources for free,
he doesn't know any secrets. He's not going to
make any money, gamblers are notorious cheapskates
when it comes to paying for playing instructions.
Most gambling books and gambling material doesn't
sell well because there are so few really serious
players out there. Maybe he's run out of ideas to
make money in the casinos.

Quote: EvenBob

That Grosjean would come up with this kind of
corny idea to make money is baffling to me. This
is info you can get from a dozen sources for free,
he doesn't know any secrets. He's not going to
make any money, gamblers are notorious cheapskates
when it comes to paying for playing instructions.
Most gambling books and gambling material doesn't
sell well because there are so few really serious
players out there. Maybe he's run out of ideas to
make money in the casinos.

If this is the only motivation you can think of, than it's no surprise that you're baffled.

My two cents: I can understand why he would want to publish these, but I also think the target demographic is pretty tiny. Hell, I don't even understand the motivation of many of the smart folks on this forum that like to gamble, but only if they're playing optimally (but still -EV). Personally, if I were to gamble, I would do it without regard to the house edge. The increase in negative expectation would be quickly offset by the increased variance—something that gamblers love, hence the popularity of poker-based carnival games with top-heavy payout structures. Gamblers love the swings, and they love to dream. I'm not sure who these people are that insist on playing "perfectly" in a -EV game (although there's certainly nothing inherently wrong with that, to be sure).

Quote: LonesomeGambler

If this is the only motivation you can think of

OK, I'll bite. Whats his motivation.

Quote: EvenBob

OK, I'll bite. Whats his motivation.

I wasn't attempting to bait you, nor can I speak to JG's motivations. But I don't feel like I'm reaching too much to say that it's definitely NOT to try and sell a few $20 strategy card packs. That would indeed be baffling, given his non-gambling education; the man would have no trouble making cash even if the games did all disappear (hint: they have definitely not disappeared).

Quote: LonesomeGambler

ersonally, if I were to gamble, I would do it without regard to the house edge. The increase in negative expectation would be quickly offset by the increased variance—something that gamblers love, hence the popularity of poker-based carnival games with top-heavy payout structures. Gamblers love the swings, and they love to dream. I'm not sure who these people are that insist on playing "perfectly" in a -EV game (although there's certainly nothing inherently wrong with that, to be sure).

Other factors can influence gambling decisions. Play craps for awhile and roulette becomes more and more attractive as fatigue sets in.

After getting a bit sloshed, sitting down and playing Let It Ride can be an optimal choice even if the game is not by any means even close to being at a positive expectation.

At three in the morning the Arizona Charlies Decatur Bingo game will have fewer than fifty players... someone who thinks of himself as a sharp gambler would have to wear a disguise but he might show up anyway.

House Edge has been compared to an "admission charge". You don't necessarily go to the cheapest movie, you go to the one you think you will most enjoy.

Quote: LonesomeGambler

nor can I speak to JG's motivations..

Let me get this straight. You say no wonder I'm baffled,
I'm too dumb to think up any other motivations. Yet
when I ask what those might be, you have no idea. Is
that about right, or am I missing something.

Quote: EvenBob

Let me get this straight. You say no wonder I'm baffled,
I'm too dumb to think up any other motivations. Yet
when I ask what those might be, you have no idea. Is
that about right, or am I missing something.

Calm down, nobody called you "dumb." I have plenty of ideas for why he may have decided to publish these cards, but it's not my place to put words into his mouth, as I don't know him and do not know his motivations. How about this? I'll tell you what my motivation would be if I decided to author a set of strategy cards for basic strategy players:

If more non-skilled players started playing correct basic strategy for the games that they already play, the casinos will make less money from them in the long run. Gamblers won't stop gambling, but at least they could do it a little less worse than they do now, and if this keeps more of their money in their pockets and not the casino's, then so much the better. Watching a player make a 1x turn/river bet on a low, uncoordinated board in Ultimate Texas Hold 'em and then flip AQo disgusts me.

The casino industry has made it clear that it's not in the business of "entertainment," it's in the business of nothing more than making money. Casinos provide entertainment as a way to attract gamblers who they expect to profit from, not the other way around. If a player is detected who can beat the house, they are often treated like criminals. The casino will allow unlimited action from weak, unskilled players, to the exclusion of skilled, observant, or otherwise intelligent players. As such, it would please me to see the casino's hold suffer as "recreational" gamblers learn to play the house's games at a 2.5-5% disadvantage, rather than the 15% disadvantage that they're playing at now.

deleted

Quote: LonesomeGambler

If more non-skilled players started playing correct basic strategy for the games that they already play, the casinos will make less money from them in the long run... As such, it would please me to see the casino's hold suffer as "recreational" gamblers learn to play the house's games at a 2.5-5% disadvantage, rather than the 15% disadvantage that they're playing at now.

I agree with this sentiment as well but doesn't it seem likely that if this were to happen and the casinos were to actually see a drop in hold dues to players becoming more educated that we'd simply see less 3/2 games and more 6/5 tables tricked out with every said bet imaginable? At some point the casinos would have to strike back by eliminating those game with the lowest edges and simply install more 5+% edge table games which in the long run would hurt us all - players AND casinos. Dontcha think?

Quote: TheNightfly

I agree with this sentiment as well but doesn't it seem likely that if this were to happen and the casinos were to actually see a drop in hold dues to players becoming more educated that we'd simply see less 3/2 games and more 6/5 tables tricked out with every said bet imaginable? At some point the casinos would have to strike back by eliminating those game with the lowest edges and simply install more 5+% edge table games which in the long run would hurt us all - players AND casinos. Dontcha think?

We're not seeing this already? Casinos are greedy. They'll keep changing the rules more and more in their favor until people finally get sick of it (not happening soon, I'm afraid). Go to MGM Detroit and take a look at the party pit — 8D H17 6:5 with a $0.25 commission for players betting less than the posted $20 or $25 "minimum." The tables there are not suffering from a lack of patronage. I doubt the existence of this particular game is due to a decreased hold due to increasing player skill; the simple fact is that if casinos can get away with it, they'll usually do it. The only thing stopping casinos from introducing "Even Money Blackjack™!" is that they don't want to set a potentially-controversial precedent. It's the same reason that H17 used to be rare, and then 6:5; now both can easily be found in nearly any casino across the country. They've learned that the civilians will not only tolerate these games, they'll play them just as much as any other game in the house!

Quote: LonesomeGambler

If more non-skilled players started playing correct basic strategy for the games that they already play, the casinos will make less money from them in the long run.

No they won't. Even if every single player used correct BS,
he'll STILL recycle all his winnings and continue playing till
he's broke. I played for 30 years, saw it every time I played.
Once in awhile some plonker would announce 'I'm quitting
while I'm ahead' and color up. 15min later I'd see him 2 BJ
tables down losing all his winnings. Greed is the emotion of
the day in gambling and its not going anywhere. 95% plus
of table game players are incapable of leaving the casino
while they're ahead, and the casino knows this. It depends
on it, counts on it. Print all the how-to cards you like, it won't
make a whit of difference in the casinos bottom line.

Of course it will. Leaving "while you're ahead" has absolutely no effect on your overall expectation. If 100,000 gamblers play for a total of 100 hours each year in a game with a 10% disadvantage (due to poor play), they will add twice as much to the casino's hold as 100,000 other gamblers playing for the same duration but with a 5% disadvantage (due to optimal BS play). Individual session results for the gambler, such as leaving after a win or staying longer than intended while losing are irrelevant to the casino's bottom line over a large sample size (ie. quarterly hold percentages).

Quote: LonesomeGambler

Individual session results for the gambler, such as leaving after a win or staying longer than intended while losing are irrelevant to the casino's bottom line over a large sample size (ie. quarterly hold percentages).

Ballocks. What player leaves after a win? What player
'intends' to stay a certain length of time? Damned few.
Most players length of stay at a table is determined by
how long their BR lasts. 94% of players leave the casino
a loser, while 70% are ahead at least once during their
visit. The casino depends on people 'reinvesting' their
wins, their bottom line depends on it. Pass out all the
how-to cards you like, if you don't know when to quit,
they're useless.

Typical hold for BJ is about 15%. The edge for playing
perfect BJ is about 1%, and its 5% for the average
moron player. Yet the hold is a whopping 15%! Thats
because the good players and the bad players do the
exact same thing, they play and play and play until the
casino's edge takes most or all of their BR.

Casino hold is determined by time at table, house edge of the game, and money put in play. It's a simple formula. Increase any or all of those and the casino makes more money. Decrease any one of those and the casino makes less. If players play better strategy, the casino will make less, assuming betting levels and time stay the same.

Quote: teddys

If players play better strategy, the casino will make less, assuming betting levels and time stay the same.

If a player is at 1%, he's losing slower than a person at 5%. But
what ususally determines time at the table is how much BR is
left. If both start out with $300 and both leave when $50 is left,
the outcome for the casino is identical. You're erroneously concluding
the 1% player will leave sooner than than the 5% player.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

But the 1% player will last longer than the 5%er

So what, if the outcome is the same. The penny slot player lasts
longer than the dollar slot player. The casino could care less as
long as they both leave their BR's behind.

Quote: EvenBob

So what, if the outcome is the same. The penny slot player lasts
longer than the dollar slot player. The casino could care less as
long as they both leave their BR's behind.

Actually, all other things being equal, the casino would rather have players last longer than otherwise. A player who takes 5 hours to lose $100 is more likely to pay for other casino services than a player who takes 15 minutes to lose the same $100. They're also more likely to return.

deleted

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

As for Grosjeans motivation? Money of course.

You can't be serious.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is exactly why Greektown in Detroit barred LOSING 9/6 JOB players years ago. They played perfect BS and hogged them so other ploppies, who didnt play perfect BS, couldnt play.

Were they losing players, or were they gaining more in comps and cashback offers than they were losing to the house? +EV VP players are undesirables to the casino as well.

Quote: EvenBob

So what, if the outcome is the same. The penny slot player lasts
longer than the dollar slot player. The casino could care less as
long as they both leave their BR's behind.

The outcome is not the same if the overhead for serving a customer losing at $40 per hour and one at $10 per hour is $15 per hour....

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

But the 1% player will last longer than the 5%er which casinos hate. They want only the worst players. "Get em in and out as fast as possible."

This is a common theme here.
Casinos want only the worst players and they want them to be drunk.
Ignorant tourists make the best fish.
Get them in, shear them and turn them loose.

Now I don't know if casinos really want things to happen all that quickly. After all, their customers know about hookers on pay night and barbers on a Saturday. The customer doesn't want to be processed quite so fast.

I admit its a bit different in a party pit: there the casinos have gone on Pseudo-Strip-Club status in an effort to provide more entertainment during the "Diluted Blackjack" games. (One might even call them Perverted Blackjack games, but I don't want to be too suggestive).

Its a matter sometimes of cream skimming. The casinos know there is a certain pool of potential customers and a certain pool of gamblers consisting of those who actually do stagger thru the front door. From that pool they want to "skim the cream" by pouncing on the Enlightened Counters and serving extra drinks to the Well Heeled Tourist With A Strategy Card. This keeps the bulk of the games being House Edge Versus Bankroll. Such games can continue at a fast pace, but not necessarily too fast. Just as slot machines must provide some intermittent reinforcement by dribbling a few quarters into the tray now and then, the casinos have to let the table game players have their lucky moments from time to time.

The casino does value loyalty, the casino does pay the player in close call situations so as to maintain good will of all those at the table, the casino still wants Happy Losers to walk out the front door rather than have Walletless Corpses be stacked up in the back alley.

Its a battle and I see no reason to think a casino should be forced to allow greedy counters even though I think the casino's fears are exaggerated and their responses unwise. Likewise, I see no reason why utterly senseless payoffs in BJ should be allowed.

Its often said that the Mob knew you had to let the player win from time to time. Its time for the Harvard MBA Bean Counters to learn that lesson as well. Its time for 3:2 and Stand on all 17s to be the norm except in well-marked Party Pits or Ploppy Pits wherein it is clearly marked that the "Blackjack" being offered has been modified in return for the Pole Dancing, Costumed Elvis, Panhandler Minimums or whatever other accommodations have been made.

The one thing I noted in a recent and rather drunken sojourn thru the Seminole Hard Rock is that the two blackjack pits were CLEARLY marked. EACH table had a 6:5. low minimums sign or it had a 3:2, No Mid Shoe Entry, Higher Minimums sign. No concealment, no pretense. Honest and straightforward.

The Carnival Games exist. Some people like them. Their reasons may appear strange or may be quite understandable. That is not at issue. The strategy cards exist. They will help someone "shave the house edge" just a bit. Nothing wrong with it. If someone wants to play LIR they might as well play it with skill.

I could be wrong but I would say 95-99% of the people who go to a casino go to have fun and a good time. I know I do and if I can use the casino for my needs, free rooms new years eve, free trip to Tahoe or New Orleans, I will to the best of my ability and bankroll. Now is it nice to win also of course its the best of both worlds. So if people want to play carnival games, which I like to do occassionally, you might as well employ optimum strategy and hope for the best, but understanding its more for fun, atmosphere etc than to break the bank. A former coach on ESPN had a funny line on when someone asked him about coaches who like to gamble on the football field. He said if you want to gamble go to Vegas and look up at the multi million dollar chandalliers, those were bought with money from people who like to gamble.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

It's just that the Wizard is my favorite, for the sheer volume of information he's provided to us.

Thanks for the kind words. Yes, that is my calling, to improve the odds of the common man in the casino, and as many of them as possible.

About Grosjean, I won't say one negative thing about him. Despite the dig at me in his book, I applaud the magnitude of his work in advantage play, including breaking all kinds of new ground in hole carding and other areas not before touched in print. While I haven't seen his strategy cards yet, I'm sure they are outstanding and would make a valuable and convenient way to bring up the game of recreational players.

A week late... but I see no Pai Gow Poker Strategy.

As much as I detest the 6/5 21 game with side-bets, there is a reason why 21 isn't 7/5 S17 HSA (-0.6%), even though it compares to H17 no Soft Double.

My opine: Most gamblers don't know about the Odds site, so Grosjean's work for some is valuable. A green chip for say 10 different games with at least an above-average strategy? The only thing that hurts is the temporary nature of some of the Fads... err uh games. /opine

98Clubs

Fads? Casinos change their minds about offering games and the public has whims about playing them as well. Slot machines change their appearance to conform to the latest Hollywood offerings and sometimes also change their innards to offer more bonus rounds and more quarter-dribbling, but its perhaps good that casinos try to innovate.

Talking about carnival games, this is a quote from
the article about Roger Snow I posted yesterday:

The biggest problem, according to both Snow and Webb, is that there is not a hunger for new table games from casino operators.
"In the 10 years I have been at Shuffle Master," Snow says, "not once did a casino manager call me and say, Hey, do you guys have any new games? I'm dying to put something new on my floor."

So new game developers not only have no demand
for their games, they also have people like James
Grosjean who roam around the country hunting
down new games and destroying them before they
even have a chance to get started.

Grosjean:

"There are so many casinos in the US," he says eating a slice of pizza. "On any given night, there are way more games out there than I could possibly whack." He also says "Casinos are vile places, a total scam, a total con."

I'd rather be on the AP side than the casinos side.
Designing games seems like a doomed from the
start project. And if you do get a game on the
floor, what have you really accomplished. Its an
odd way to make money, exploiting the baser
human instincts, like greed.

" Its an
odd way to make money, exploiting the baser
human instincts, like greed. "

Pardon me for asking Bob, but you do not in the past make money dispensing alcohol ? Just asking !

Quote: buzzpaff

" Its an
odd way to make money, exploiting the baser
human instincts, like greed. "

Pardon me for asking Bob, but you do not in the past make money dispensing alcohol ? Just asking !

Absolutely, and as I stated before, after
3 years I got out of the business because
it was rubbing off on me. I was drinking
way too much and had a real antagonism
towards alcoholics. I got out before it was
too late. There's an old saying: You become
what you do. The one I like better is: When
you dance with the Devil, the Devil doesn't
change. The Devil changes you.

I think it was Benny Binion who said
"Las Vegas is full of traps."

The games are clever traps set by the
casino to make players think they can
win. Binion also said if you have the
edge in Vegas, its a paradise. If you
don't its a graveyard.

" Absolutely, and as I stated before, after
3 years I got out of the business because
it was rubbing off on me."

I had missed that post Bob. You have just gone up on my respect level.

I know some posters don't share your opinions. Perhaps they need to look up
the word FORUM.

Quote: buzzpaff

I know some posters don't share your opinions. .

Working in a bar is very similar to working
in a casino, they both cater to our baser
instincts. After awhile, you become numb
to your surroundings and start to believe
the people you see every day are 'normal'.
You start to resent and even hate them
for their flaws. Thats why there are so many
jaded and bitter old dealers. They didn't get
out in time, they became what they do. Its
inevitable if you stay there long enough.

After awhile, you become numb
to your surroundings and start to believe
the people you see every day are 'normal'.

Been there , done that. Used to think I was a good guy, when after hustling some working stiff for his $100 paycheck, I would float him $20. Just so he did not have to go home to the wife and kids totally broke.