3CP Qualifying Question?
Thanks in advance for answers posted.
The lower the qualifying hand, the lower the edge because the above situation happens less often.
If the game was king high, you would always stay in, because the dealer wouldn't qualify enough.
Queen high is the point where the house edge is the highest, thus, why it's queen high.
I don't have any numbers, that's where everyone else comes in.
How often do you stay in with marginal hands, hoping the dealer doesn't qualify?
How often do you then lose when the dealer DOES qualify?
That being the case, wouldn't you fold more often with marginal hands if the dealer's qualifying hand was lower?
I.E. Wouldn't the range of what you call a "marginal hand" be lowered too? Once it lowers too much, it becomes more of a game of luck rather than a game of skill. After a certain point, you might as well be playing Casino War.
48*36 + 52*34 + 720*7 + 1096*5 + 3744*2 = 21504/22100 = 97.3%
I read that the ante wager has a house advantage of 3.37% - whilst house advantage on the combined ante/play wager is 2.01%. Can someone please explain how I can do the math on this? Got my pad, pencil and calculator at the ready.
I know queen high or better is 69.59% so, at face value, it looks like 100 - 69.59 = 30.41 * 0.3041 = 9.247681 - being the percentage of time when both player and dealer have less than queen high, which is then reduced by the player receiving ante bonuses of 5 to 1, 4 to 1, and evens for top three hands. Is this totally erroneous, or is it a rough approximation of the correct answer?
Once again thanks to anyone who takes time to answer my post.
Quote: DJTeddyBearOnce it lowers too much, it becomes more of a game of luck rather than a game of skill. After a certain point, you might as well be playing Casino War.
Are you implying that 3 card poker is a game of skill? Could you not teach an average 5 year old optimal strategy in a few minutes?
Half the people that actualy play it? I doubt it...,,
Quote: DJTeddyBearHalf the people that actualy play it? I doubt it...,,
Only half? I estimate it's about 99.9999999...999% after all, even those of us in this board who know better make the pair+ bet from time to time. Strategy is play on Q,6,4 or higher, don't bet on the sucker bets.
Quote: DJTeddyBearA five year old? Sure.
Half the people that actualy play it? I doubt it...,,
Well, in defense of the players, the five year old is sober...
Quote: DJTeddyBearA five year old? Sure.
Half the people that actualy play it? I doubt it...,,
Most of the people who play it know the strategy; everyone has a computer, and after you've had the floor mopped with your wallet once or twice as you've gone in on every hand, you google "3 card poker strategy".
The game makes money because when you fold, the dealer always wins. And of course there's the guaranteed 7%, in most casinos, on the Pairs Plus bet.
I was being kind.Quote: NareedOnly half? I estimate it's about 99.9999999...999% . . .
Quote: DJTeddyBearI was being kind.
I say things like that when I screw up a statement, too ;)
Quote: NareedOnly half? I estimate it's about 99.9999999...999% after all, even those of us in this board who know better make the pair+ bet from time to time. Strategy is play on Q,6,4 or higher, don't bet on the sucker bets.
If you know the strategy, you also know this game can't be beaten and has a consistent house edge, so if you want to play smart, you won't play it at all.
Quote: P90If you know the strategy, you also know this game can't be beaten and has a consistent house edge, so if you want to play smart, you won't play it at all.
That goes for all games.
Quote: NareedThat goes for all games.
Not really. I know first-hand that true poker can be beaten and beaten consistently. Blackjack, not consistently and not as much beaten as turned to this side of neutral, but still sort of. VP, the gain is too minor to speak of advantage play, but one can at least make it a fair play. And there occasionally are more games in this group.
Other games are only there for you to lose money, no matter what you do, so the question of proper strategy is somewhat moot, as there isn't any, only bad and worse. The whole reason one plays these games is to make bad choices (starting with sitting at the table), can't put an exact value on that.
Quote: THESWEENEYThanks for the answers so far guys. I've managed to calculate the 97.3% payout on the pair plus by.....
48*36 + 52*34 + 720*7 + 1096*5 + 3744*2 = 21504/22100 = 97.3%
I read that the ante wager has a house advantage of 3.37% - whilst house advantage on the combined ante/play wager is 2.01%. Can someone please explain how I can do the math on this? Got my pad, pencil and calculator at the ready.
I know queen high or better is 69.59% so, at face value, it looks like 100 - 69.59 = 30.41 * 0.3041 = 9.247681 - being the percentage of time when both player and dealer have less than queen high, which is then reduced by the player receiving ante bonuses of 5 to 1, 4 to 1, and evens for top three hands. Is this totally erroneous, or is it a rough approximation of the correct answer?
Once again thanks to anyone who takes time to answer my post.
Anyone?
Quote: THESWEENEY
I read that the ante wager has a house advantage of 3.37% - whilst house advantage on the combined ante/play wager is 2.01%. Can someone please explain how I can do the math on this? Got my pad, pencil and calculator at the ready.
This is simple:
You will make the play bet 68% of time (Q/6/4 or better) so your average bet size is: 0.68*2 + (1-0.68)*1 = 1.68 ante bet units. If you divide the 3.37% house edge across 1.68 betting units you'll get a house edge of 3.37%/1.68 = 2.01% per unit wagered.
Quote: Jufo81This is simple:
You will make the play bet 68% of time (Q/6/4 or better) so your average bet size is: 0.68*2 + (1-0.68)*1 = 1.68 ante bet units. If you divide the 3.37% house edge across 1.68 betting units you'll get a house edge of 3.37%/1.68 = 2.01% per unit wagered.
Thanks a lot Jufo81. Would you be so kind as to explain how I can do the Math for calculating the house edge of 3.37%?
Many thanks.
Quote: THESWEENEYQuote: Jufo81This is simple:
You will make the play bet 68% of time (Q/6/4 or better) so your average bet size is: 0.68*2 + (1-0.68)*1 = 1.68 ante bet units. If you divide the 3.37% house edge across 1.68 betting units you'll get a house edge of 3.37%/1.68 = 2.01% per unit wagered.
Thanks a lot Jufo81. Would you be so kind as to explain how I can do the Math for calculating the house edge of 3.37%?
Many thanks.
That's not so easy. You need the probability for each outcome (probability to win 1 ante unit, 2 ante units, and so on) and the house edge is the sum of each probability multiplied by the outcome. See page https://wizardofodds.com/threecardpoker and in that page the table titled "Ante Return Table" to see how the house edge is arrived at.
Quote: P90Not really. I know first-hand that true poker can be beaten and beaten consistently.
Actual poker is not a casino game, it is simply delt by the casino...who takes their cut.
Quote: P90Not really. I know first-hand that true poker can be beaten and beaten consistently. Blackjack, not consistently and not as much beaten as turned to this side of neutral, but still sort of. VP, the gain is too minor to speak of advantage play, but one can at least make it a fair play. And there occasionally are more games in this group.
Other games are only there for you to lose money, no matter what you do, so the question of proper strategy is somewhat moot, as there isn't any, only bad and worse. The whole reason one plays these games is to make bad choices (starting with sitting at the table), can't put an exact value on that.
poker - yeah it can be beaten when you play against people who play true to the game, not the average douche from LA who calls every hand, including a 7-2 offsuit and lucks out with a 7-7-2 flop. or you get the people who play so tight that whenever you try to call (or god forbid raise), they fold all around you.
blackjack & VP both still have a negative EV.
ALL games are there for you to SPEND your money and you explain off your LOSS of money as a form of entertainment. There is proper strategy for every game. some games' strategy is "don't play this game", but all have a preferred method to play, and all games can occasionally return a profit when played in a short timeframe. the only trouble is finding when the exact time is to lay your money on the table and when to cash out.
if "The whole reason one plays these games is to make bad choices", then just curious - do you gamble? if no, why visit a site about gambling? it's like saying that "the only reason to drink is the hope that you will get liver cancer".
Quote: nullzero00blackjack & VP both still have a negative EV..
Only 6:5 BJ has a -EV; every other BJ game that pays 3:2 has an inherent positive EV. Granted, you have to count cards to get that +EV, but I consider any game that if played optimally, gives the player the advantage, to be +EV by definition (even if playing optimally is quite difficult). (EDIT: the preceding excludes autoshuffler games.)
VP is either +EV or -EV depending on the pay schedule, slot club benefits, and promotions. On any given day in Vegas, there are dozens of opportunities to play +EV VP.
Quote: Jufo81Quote: THESWEENEYQuote: Jufo81This is simple:
You will make the play bet 68% of time (Q/6/4 or better) so your average bet size is: 0.68*2 + (1-0.68)*1 = 1.68 ante bet units. If you divide the 3.37% house edge across 1.68 betting units you'll get a house edge of 3.37%/1.68 = 2.01% per unit wagered.
Thanks a lot Jufo81. Would you be so kind as to explain how I can do the Math for calculating the house edge of 3.37%?
Many thanks.
That's not so easy. You need the probability for each outcome (probability to win 1 ante unit, 2 ante units, and so on) and the house edge is the sum of each probability multiplied by the outcome. See page https://wizardofodds.com/threecardpoker and in that page the table titled "Ante Return Table" to see how the house edge is arrived at.
Thanks for the pointer. Regards the Ante Return Table, are the combinations given for plus 7 down to minus 2 based on perfect strategy of calling with Q64 or better?
Quote: THESWEENEY
Thanks for the pointer. Regards the Ante Return Table, are the combinations given for plus 7 down to minus 2 based on perfect strategy of calling with Q64 or better?
Yes they are. If you would change strategy from Q64 the probabilities would change accordingly and all of them would add up to showing a larger house edge.
As a side note, if you were to play optimal strategy relative to total amount wagered rather than play optimal strategy relative to initial bet, then the strategy would change to raising Q62 or better.
