Crushing Wiz's free bacc game

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I realize that this post might make me look ridiculous or foolish but I'm trying to learn WHY

I'm hoping you guys can help me understand why I've been winning so much for so long - much beyond what luck could accomplish

of course I know that betting progressions can't overcome the HA

for many years I've fooled around with them on the bacc game and I've always lost

until recently - this one combined with my bet selection - I've just kept winning - it's very astonishing to me

on the Wizard's page on the D'Alembert progression he tests it betting on Player with 65 billion hands and found it to lose exactly the HE -

but I play it differently and with a certain bet selection

on the first shoe there is no bet on the first hand and from then on I bet whatever came last - Banker or Player (no ties) - (of course I know that the payout on a winning Banker bet is less - it doesn't seem to matter)

is it possible that this bet selection method is the reason that it is winning so much? - using it you cannot get creamed by one side Banker or Player dominating

you do get creamed when it flips back and forth between Player and Banker - I handle that with a stop loss

my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win -

if I lose a bet at $65 that is a stop loss and I start a new shoe - if a bet is won at $5.00 the next bet is also $5.00

I record the results after a shoe or after the stop loss

so, the largest bet is $65 and the smallest bet is $5.00

the largest loss I take for any one shoe is usually at the stop loss and is about $350

the largest win for any one shoe is about $225 - there are many smaller wins in between

My results - I haven't recorded the exact number of hands or shoes but after playing for a very, very long time I am up by $3,200

I'M HOPING SEVERAL OF YOU GUYS WILL PLAY 4 OR 5 SHOES EXACTLY AS I HAVE INDICATED AND REPORT YOUR RESULTS

or if you can do a sim (which I can't) that would be great - but it has to be with exactly these amounts for the initial bet and the increases and decreases - and there has to be a stopping at the stop loss I indicated

so why don't I go to a real casino and play this-? - I don't need $ anymore or really care about making $ and the nearest casino is a long way from me

and table games such as this are not legal for online gambling in my State

I do enjoy trying to figure out winning methods - I almost always fail to do that - this time is the exception - if it isn't just luck or something else that can be explained

please note - my OP was incorrect - I corrected it - here is the correct way to increase or decrease

"my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win - "



https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/

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I can only play $50 minimum tables, which I haven't won the bankroll for yet. Max bet would be $2K, or $3K depending if I move to the $100 table.
So initial bets of $250 that go up or down by $50 on a win or loss. Top bet of $650. Stop loss for any shoe is $3,500. Largest win for any one shoe is around $2,250. If I was playing with your luck I'd be up $32K.

Well, you're barely 9 shoes ahead with your $3,500 stop loss in place. The bad luck I get can ruin that lead in about 9 shoes.

Quote: ChumpChange

I can only play $50 minimum tables, which I haven't won the bankroll for yet. Max bet would be $2K, or $3K depending if I move to the $100 table.
So initial bets of $250 that go up or down by $50 on a win or loss. Top bet of $650. Stop loss for any shoe is $3,500. Largest win for any one shoe is around $2,250. If I was playing with your luck I'd be up $32K.

Well, you're barely 9 shoes ahead with your $3,500 stop loss in place. The bad luck I get can ruin that lead in about 9 shoes.
link to original post

you can play exactly as I indicated on the free bacc game which is linked

that's what I am hoping you will do - play 4 or 5 shoes and report the results here - please note the correction I made


https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/

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On the first shoe after 47 hands with 20 Player, 21 Banker, and 6 Ties I hit the maximum bet and lost and I'm down the stop loss.




My 2nd shoe was a winner. I restarted at $10K for this shoe. I started with a $250 bet on Player on the first hand on both shoes I believe. I quit before the last hand was dealt so I could screengrab the stats board. I won the near $2,250 limit advised. I ended up with a $50 bet on Banker as Banker was the last one to win. There was a tie of 37 Player/Banker wins and 8 Tie hands. There wasn't an extended run of choppy hands this time around running up my bets amounts. There were some 2-4 in a row wins to bring the bet amounts down.

($250 + $300 + $350 + $400 + $450 + $500 + $550 + $600 + $650 = $4,050); so a run of 9 choppy hands can make me go bust for more than the stop loss from the start. There was a run of 7 choppy hands in a row in this shoe and several 4-5 in a row choppy hands in the first shoe.




If you win $2,250 40X for a $90K win and lose $3,500 20X for a $70K loss, you'll be +$20K. You'll have a phantom $7K profit to pay taxes on next year because you can only deduct 90% of your losses.

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Quote: lilredrooster

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I realize that this post might make me look ridiculous or foolish but I'm trying to learn WHY

I'm hoping you guys can help me understand why I've been winning so much for so long - much beyond what luck could accomplish

of course I know that betting progressions can't overcome the HA

for many years I've fooled around with them on the bacc game and I've always lost

until recently

now you've been losing?

Quote:

- this one combined with my bet selection - I've just kept winning - it's very astonishing to me

on the Wizard's page on the D'Alembert progression he tests it betting on Player with 65 billion hands and found it to lose exactly the HE -

but I play it differently and with a certain bet selection

on the first shoe there is no bet on the first hand and from then on I bet whatever came last - Banker or Player (no ties) - (of course I know that the payout on a winning Banker bet is less - it doesn't seem to matter)

is it possible that this bet selection method is the reason that it is winning so much? - using it you cannot get creamed by one side Banker or Player dominating

you do get creamed when it flips back and forth between Player and Banker - I handle that with a stop loss

my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win -

if I lose a bet at $65 that is a stop loss and I start a new shoe - if a bet is won at $5.00 the next bet is also $5.00

I record the results after a shoe or after the stop loss

so, the largest bet is $65 and the smallest bet is $5.00

the largest loss I take for any one shoe is usually at the stop loss and is about $350

the largest win for any one shoe is about $225 - there are many smaller wins in between

My results - I haven't recorded the exact number of hands or shoes but after playing for a very, very long time I am up by $3,200

Very long time is years? Daily or near so?

Quote:

I'M HOPING SEVERAL OF YOU GUYS WILL PLAY 4 OR 5 SHOES EXACTLY AS I HAVE INDICATED AND REPORT YOUR RESULTS

or if you can do a sim (which I can't) that would be great - but it has to be with exactly these amounts for the initial bet and the increases and decreases - and there has to be a stopping at the stop loss I indicated

so why don't I go to a real casino and play this-? - I don't need $ anymore or really care about making $ and the nearest casino is a long way from me

and table games such as this are not legal for online gambling in my State

I do enjoy trying to figure out winning methods - I almost always fail to do that - this time is the exception - if it isn't just luck or something else that can be explained

this maybe fits a type of statistical study mistake with data clumping called " clustering error" or something like that. Some very smart people, scientists etc, fall into it, going to their grave convinced about it. Just saying.

Quote:

please note - my OP was incorrect - I corrected it - here is the correct way to increase or decrease

"my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win - "



https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/

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link to original post

It does sound remarkable, I hope to do what you asked ... but won't be today

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no, I'm not losing now

I know I've played at least 100 shoes - prolly quite a bit more

daily for several months - playing at least one shoe day

I'll repeat this from my op - because this is the very intriguing question -

"is it possible that this bet selection method is the reason that it is winning so much? - using it you cannot get creamed by one side Banker or Player dominating"

if that is not the answer - then I have no clue as to why I've been winning so much

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Bet selection is not the reason, or if it is, you'll astound us all. Who knew?

I think it has been shown that a betting system can go for a long, long time , like 100 shoes, without being a casino beater in the end. I don't know enough to be good at demonstrating

As for clustering error, this comes up in cancer neighborhood data. There was a case years ago in the news in Alexandria VA where a cul-de-sac with maybe 20 houses had a bunch of people come down with a type of cancer. That it was way past expectations was clear. They did all kinds of testing and finally concluded it was a cluster. This cluster stuff in cancer with neighborhoods has been repeated elsewhere. In the one I followed, the residents of the zone were largely still convinced it wasn't just chance.

The thing to note is if you conduct many, many searches for neighborhood data, not only is a cluster possible, it is inevitable. So I am comparing what you said, that you have tried this, that, and the other thing over and over, that maybe a cluster phenomenon is at work. Someone better informed than me about statistics might say this doesn't fit that, so I could be wrong.

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another possible reason it has been effective is that the chase of the losses is so small (just a $5.00 increase after a loss) - less chance of a large loss - there has been no gigantic loss in any shoe - mostly because of the stop loss - of course, it would be possible to have 5 or 6 large losing shoes in a row - that hasn't happened - it hasn't even come close to happening - I don't even recall large losses in 2 shoes in a row

I think you are suggesting that it has just been extreme luck
I guess that is possible
I plan to keep playing about 1 or 2 shoes per day
it only takes a few minutes to play a shoe
today is Sept. 9 - I will report again in 3 months, around December 9
by then I should have played at least about 100 more shoes
if it continues to win for another 100 shoes will you still suggest it has just been luck?
I don't think that I would be able to accept that if it continues to win at this astonishing pace

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200 more shoes and you keep increasing, I'll claim it is all luck, don't try this anybody! Meanwhile you will see me at the casino putting into action

Quote: lilredrooster

.
I realize that this post might make me look ridiculous or foolish but I'm trying to learn WHY

I'm hoping you guys can help me understand why I've been winning so much for so long - much beyond what luck could accomplish

of course I know that betting progressions can't overcome the HA

for many years I've fooled around with them on the bacc game and I've always lost

until recently - this one combined with my bet selection - I've just kept winning - it's very astonishing to me

on the Wizard's page on the D'Alembert progression he tests it betting on Player with 65 billion hands and found it to lose exactly the HE -

but I play it differently and with a certain bet selection

on the first shoe there is no bet on the first hand and from then on I bet whatever came last - Banker or Player (no ties) - (of course I know that the payout on a winning Banker bet is less - it doesn't seem to matter)

is it possible that this bet selection method is the reason that it is winning so much? - using it you cannot get creamed by one side Banker or Player dominating

you do get creamed when it flips back and forth between Player and Banker - I handle that with a stop loss

my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win -

if I lose a bet at $65 that is a stop loss and I start a new shoe - if a bet is won at $5.00 the next bet is also $5.00

I record the results after a shoe or after the stop loss

so, the largest bet is $65 and the smallest bet is $5.00

the largest loss I take for any one shoe is usually at the stop loss and is about $350

the largest win for any one shoe is about $225 - there are many smaller wins in between

My results - I haven't recorded the exact number of hands or shoes but after playing for a very, very long time I am up by $3,200

I'M HOPING SEVERAL OF YOU GUYS WILL PLAY 4 OR 5 SHOES EXACTLY AS I HAVE INDICATED AND REPORT YOUR RESULTS

or if you can do a sim (which I can't) that would be great - but it has to be with exactly these amounts for the initial bet and the increases and decreases - and there has to be a stopping at the stop loss I indicated

so why don't I go to a real casino and play this-? - I don't need $ anymore or really care about making $ and the nearest casino is a long way from me

and table games such as this are not legal for online gambling in my State

I do enjoy trying to figure out winning methods - I almost always fail to do that - this time is the exception - if it isn't just luck or something else that can be explained

please note - my OP was incorrect - I corrected it - here is the correct way to increase or decrease

"my initial bet is $25 - and from there I increase by only $5.00 after a loss and decrease only $5.00 after a win - "



https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/

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link to original post

Variance is real and most people vastly underestimate it. What you think is impossible by luck alone might actually not be all that unlikely.

Having said that I didn't actually do any math on your specific betting progression. But I don't need to do the math to tell you that your EV is exactly your edge on one hand (which is negative) multiplied by the amount of money you bet. That's just a mathematical fact, and it's quite easy to prove. Any difference between this expected result and your actual result is due to variance.

Another possibility is that there is some bug in the game. That seems less likely though.

Wrote a post that got lost due to too much traffic at WoV, didn't post. Bottom line, lost $65 right away on the Wiz game and couldn't tell you how many games that was, too hard to keep track. I was supposed to quit when losing 65, right?

PS how do you know you have played a shoe?

Quote: odiousgambit

Wrote a post that got lost due to too much traffic at WoV, didn't post. Bottom line, lost $65 right away on the Wiz game and couldn't tell you how many games that was, too hard to keep track. I was supposed to quit when losing 65, right?

PS how do you know you have played a shoe?
link to original post

if you lose a bet at $65 (8 $5.00 increases above the initial bet of $25) that is your stop loss - usually when that happens there will be a net loss of around $350

the game gives you a written notice that the next hand is the last hand of the shoe - that's how you know the shoe is over

I'm assuming you don't mean that you had a total loss of $65 -

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