baccarat jackpot odds

casino is starting this bonus which if you play a hand its free.

4 of kind (3's, 4s.8s, 9s) first 4 cards $1000

4 of kind (3's, 4s.8s, 9s) first 4 cards $10000 suited

6 of kind any card $10000
6 of kind any card suited $100000

what are the odds of these, and what value does it add? (looking for overall e.v. per hand)

It is better if you are a solo player as you get all of it, if you are playing with 4 other players (it would be divided). But assuming I am only player does this add maybe like
25-30 cents value per hand? (the corporation is paying $1 to the house for it each hand to fund)

Assuming an 8-deck shoe, I get:

There are 1,229,930,520 possible sets of 4 cards
Of these, 280 consists of four 3s, 4s, 8s, or 9s that are suited, and 143,560 consist of four that are not suited
The probability of winning either of the two amounts is 1 / 8567, and the probability of winning the 10,000 is 1 / 4,392,609.
The value is 11.9 cents per hand.

The 6 of a kind one is a little harder to do, as you have to take into account the fact that both the player and the banker have to take a third card.
However, even if they did not - i.e. they would always show the top 6 cards of the shoe - the value would be only 0.7 cents per hand.

darn, ok so its lot lower than i guessed, 12 cents hand *60 hands, its adding like $7/hour of value. thanks for calc.

I get that any set of quads will either stand or both parties will take a card. On that assumption there are 4 ways to stop on 4-cards (3,4,8,9) and the others (A 2 5 6 7 T J Q K) could take 6-cards.
(I haven't checked the figures, but as they're roughly the same as above, I'd guess if you can bet about $10 or less, then it's worth it.)

			Ways	Card 1					Card 6	Product	EV in cents
4 ways	e.g. 3 3 3 3	Suited	4	8	7	6	5	412	411	1 137 911 040
4 ways	e.g. 3 3 3 3	Any	4	32	31	30	29	412	411	584 561 157 120
9 ways	e.g. AAA AAA	Suited	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	181 440
9 ways	e.g. AAA AAA	Any	9	32	31	30	29	28	27	5 872 124 160
all ways	any cards		1	416	415	414	413	412	411	4 998 398 275 503 360
										0
Suited	4 cards						Payout	10000	Value	11 379 110 400 000	0.227 655c
Un-Suited	4 cards						Payout	1000	Value	583 423 246 080 000	11.672 204c
Suited	6 cards						Payout	100000	Value	18 144 000 000	0.000 363c
Un-suited	6 cards						Payout	10000	Value	58 719 427 200 000	1.174 765c
								Total	value	653 539 927 680 000	13.074 987c

Quote: charliepatrick

I get that any set of quads will either stand or both parties will take a card. On that assumption there are 4 ways to stop on 4-cards (3,4,8,9) and the others (A 2 5 6 7 T J Q K) could take 6-cards.
(I haven't checked the figures, but as they're roughly the same as above, I'd guess if you can bet about $10 or less, then it's worth it.)

			Ways	Card 1					Card 6	Product	EV in cents
4 ways	e.g. 3 3 3 3	Suited	4	8	7	6	5	412	411	1 137 911 040
4 ways	e.g. 3 3 3 3	Any	4	32	31	30	29	412	411	584 561 157 120
9 ways	e.g. AAA AAA	Suited	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	181 440
9 ways	e.g. AAA AAA	Any	9	32	31	30	29	28	27	5 872 124 160
all ways	any cards		1	416	415	414	413	412	411	4 998 398 275 503 360
										0
Suited	4 cards						Payout	10000	Value	11 379 110 400 000	0.227 655c
Un-Suited	4 cards						Payout	1000	Value	583 423 246 080 000	11.672 204c
Suited	6 cards						Payout	100000	Value	18 144 000 000	0.000 363c
Un-suited	6 cards						Payout	10000	Value	58 719 427 200 000	1.174 765c
								Total	value	653 539 927 680 000	13.074 987c

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What about quad deuces? Player draws a third card, banker may or may not.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

What about quad deuces? Player draws a third card, banker may or may not.
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If both parties start with 22=4, then the Player takes a card. If it is a 2 then the Dealer (who draws when the Player receives 7-2) also takes a card, and we hope it's a 2. If the Player's third card isn't a 2, we don't care what happens, as it now can't turn into 6-of-a-kind. (Yes sometimes the Dealer will take a card, and sometimes the Dealer won't, but for bonus purposes, they're all irrelevant.)

When it says "9 ways" that means that AAAAAA is one of nine possibilities, the other eight being 2 5 6 7 10 J Q K. If I've got it correct, it transpires for all these nine ways, the Player draws an extra card and, if the Player draws a matching card, then the Dealer will draw an extra card.

Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

What about quad deuces? Player draws a third card, banker may or may not.
link to original post

If both parties start with 22=4, then the Player takes a card. If it is a 2 then the Dealer (who draws when the Player receives 7-2) also takes a card, and we hope it's a 2. If the Player's third card isn't a 2, we don't care what happens, as it now can't turn into 6-of-a-kind. (Yes sometimes the Dealer will take a card, and sometimes the Dealer won't, but for bonus purposes, they're all irrelevant.)

When it says "9 ways" that means that AAAAAA is one of nine possibilities, the other eight being 2 5 6 7 10 J Q K. If I've got it correct, it transpires for all these nine ways, the Player draws an extra card and, if the Player draws a matching card, then the Dealer will draw an extra card.
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OK I see there is no way to get 5 of a kind. I just thought an assumption that there are no 5-card hands possible after you get any quads might mess up your math a little.