Question about baccarat vs. EZ baccarat..

I was looking at the numbers between the 2 games and while it's clear that probability says the banker is the better bet in normal baccarat with a 0.458597 probability of winning vs. the player probability of 0.446247 isn't the player actually the better bet in the EZ baccarat version of the game? The numbers show in EZ that the probabilty of a banker win is 0.436118 and the player win probability is 0.446279. The difference comes from a hand totaling 7 for the banker that would normally win in baccarat becoming a tie in EZ baccarat. So then am i correct that numbers wise, player would be the better bet with a higher probability in EZ baccarat or do i still include the 0.022535 probabilty of the banker 7 tie in with the banker odds because you get your money back and thus giving the banker bet the better odds in EZ, i'm confused? Thanks for your help.

The numbers you list only take into account the probability of the act occurring. You have to resolve all the outcomes with their probabilities. Betting player in EZ would result in you losing your bet for a banker win or a banker 3-card win. Resolving this, you get .436118*(-1)+.022535*(-1) Banker wins or 3-card win+ .446279*(1) to get the total house edge. Doing this shows a 1.24% house edge for playing on player. Performing the same analysis on banker bets yields 1.02% for the Banker bet.

-B

Quote: allnighter

The numbers show in EZ that the probabilty of a banker win is 0.436118 and the player win probability is 0.446279. The difference comes from a hand totaling 7 for the banker that would normally win in baccarat becoming a tie in EZ baccarat.

So then am i correct that numbers wise, player would be the better bet with a higher probability in EZ baccarat or do i still include the 0.022535 probabilty of the banker 7 tie in with the banker odds because you get your money back and thus giving the banker bet the better odds in EZ, i'm confused? Thanks for your help.

You are not correct in saying "that numbers wise, "player" would be the better bet with a higher probability in EZ baccarat".

My wife and her friends are big EZ Bac players and I had made these tables for her last year when she also thought the player bet would be the better bet to make. Now she only bets the player bet when she thinks it will have a win streak. That would make for another thread on another day.

The reason is not how much a bet wins but also how much it will lose. That is where the house edge comes into play in EZ.
As the house edge is already shown in the above post, let me give you a few examples from playing 1, 10 and 100 shoes.

In 1 shoe, about 80 hands per shoe, the table below shows a perfect distribution and both bets end up losing the same 1 unit wager.

Event	Probability	Pays	Return	1 SHOE	Frequency	Loss	NET win/loss	net$	action	house edge
Banker win	0.436118	1	0.436118	34.88	35	36	-1	-5	405	-0.01234
Normal tie	0.095069	0	0	7.60	8
Banker 3-card 7 win	0.022535	0	0	1.80	2
Player win	0.446279	-1	-0.446279	35.7	36	37	-1	-5	405	-0.01234
Total	1		-0.010161	80.0	81

In 10 shoes, the table below shows another perfect distribution and now we see that both bets are approaching their house edges. We can also see why. The player bet loses more than the banker bet.

Event	Probability	Pays	Return	10 SHOES	Frequency	Loss	NET win/loss	net$	action	house edge
Banker win	0.436118	1	0.436118	348.9	349	357	-8	-40	4000	-0.01
Normal tie	0.095069	0	0	76	76
Banker 3-card 7 win	0.022535	0	0	18	18
Player win	0.446279	-1	-0.446279	357	357	367	-10	-50	4000	-0.0125
Total	1		-0.010161	800	800

In 100 shoes, the table below shows another perfect distribution and now we again see that both bets are almost to their their house edges. We can also see why again. The player bet again loses more than the banker bet.

Event	Probability	Pays	Return	100 SHOES	Frequency	Loss	NET win/loss	net$	action	house edge
Banker win	0.436118	1	0.436118	3488.9	3489	3570	-81	-405	40000	-0.010125
Normal tie	0.095069	0	0	760.5	761
Banker 3-card 7 win	0.022535	0	0	180.2	180
Player win	0.446279	-1	-0.446279	3570.2	3570	3669	-99	-495	40000	-0.012375
Total	1		-0.010161	8000	8000

They had EZ bac in one of my local casinos for about 4 months and took it out because none of the Asians would play it. Too superstitious. I'm not kidding.

Thanks for the info and explanations, that clears up my confusion quite nicely. In response to evenbob about the popularity of the game i guess it is hit or miss if people like the EZ variant or not. For example i hear that EZ baccarat is not popular in Vegas but the casinos that i frequent removed the regular baccarat tables and replaced them with all EZ bac tables and they are very popular. You pretty much have to go at oddball hours just to get a seat, they are packed during normal hours and the asian crowd likes it as much as anyone else. The tables get rowdy when a dragon hits and you can hear players screaming from across the casino. I would say it is the most popular game in the casino around my parts.

and where do you hail from?

I do not understand why ties are included in house edge calculations.

If you remove the ties, what is the house edge for both Banker and Player?

Also, could you please convert the house edge into something simple. For example, Bank will win 40 out of 81 non-tie hands; Player will win...

Many thanks.