Commission-light Baccarat

My local casino sometimes runs out of blue chips (25 cent ones), or just doesn’t stock them at certain baccarat tables. Tonight I was at one of these with a $25 minimum and commission was rounded down to the nearest dollar like you’d see on a buy bet on craps. What is the house / player edge on a $39 banker bet that pays $38?

I asked if that means there are no longer $10 or $15 tables and was told “in those cases, banked pays even money”. I was even told that if there wasn’t enough blues on a table to pay all players properly, then all commission would be rounded down for all players. The dealer then went on to say someone the other night “bought all the blue chips” to force this to happen. Amusing.

I assume this won’t last very long, but I’m curious… what’s the most you could make with this? $19 bets x 14 betting spots (they allow people standing up to also bet), all paying even money seems like quite the group AP potential. I’d have to see it with my own eyes to believe the even money scenario but even with the $39 to $38 that’s gotta be close to a player advantage right?

Theguyoverthere,

If winning Banker bets pay no commission, then according to our very own Wizard of Odds, bets on Banker are +EV: +1.237% for six decks, +1.235% for eight decks. See here and scroll down to "Reduced Commission on Banker Bet".

At $19 x 14 per round you'll make about $3.29 every time Banker wins on six deck baccarat... until they put a stop to you by totaling all your bets and charging $13 commission on the Banker wins.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Surprised a casino would allow banker bets to not be $20 increments in that situation.

Yeah I couldn’t believe it either. I did actually experience betting $50 and only paying $2 though, that was glorious.

What’s the house edge on that particular wager? Or the more drastic $39 wager?

(snip!)

Quote: Theguyoverthere

I assume this won’t last very long, but I’m curious… what’s the most you could make with this? $19 bets x 14 betting spots (they allow people standing up to also bet), all paying even money seems like quite the group AP potential. I’d have to see it with my own eyes to believe the even money scenario but even with the $39 to $38 that’s gotta be close to a player advantage right?
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Argh! That's $38 to $39, not $39 to $38!

Now, with my petty frustrations vented, I'm pretty sure they have to like you to let this slide. I can believe a number of places would simply declare $2 commission on bets up to $40, as breakage goes to the house.
If hijinks become too frequent, expect the banker commission to be replaced with a higher edge non-commission variant.

Yeah betting $39 not the best look. But at a $25 min table betting $25 I feel wouldn’t attract any heat. How do you calculate house edge for a given payout on banker? $25 winning $24, $39 winning $38 etc?

Quote: Theguyoverthere

Yeah betting $39 not the best look. But at a $25 min table betting $25 I feel wouldn’t attract any heat. How do you calculate house edge for a given payout on banker? $25 winning $24, $39 winning $38 etc?
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Since the drawing rules are the same, the probabilities are the same. Just need to replace 19/20 (0.95) with 38/39, or what you will.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/

If you're not fussy on details, I get that 38/39 makes the banker bet very close to zero house edge.

Ah I see

So with 24/25 I get:.95 x 0.458597 = 0.44025312
Subtract from Player probability of 0.446247 = -.00599388, or about 0.6% HE, similar to a standard rules blackjack game.

WIth 38/39 I get: 0.9743589743589744 x 0.44025312 = 0.4468381025641026
Subtract from Player probability of 0.446247 you get... 0.000591102564102564 or about a 0.06 percent player advantage. Multiply by $39 and that's about 2.3 cents per hand. Exciting.