Blackjack returns

Assume you play 500 hands of BJ, betting the same amount each hand, playing perfect basic strategy. What are the odds after 500 hands that your ROI will only be 94 percent?

If betting $25 units and playing 500 total bets including splits and double downs the total bet would be $12,500. Winning only 94% of that would be a return of $11,750, or a loss of $750, or a loss of 30 X $25 chips. Lemme just say it's easy to lose 30 chips like that in 100 bets, 200 bets or even 300 bets. I don't have equations to figure out the probabilities, just recent experience on the home games. I've been down more than 30 chips in 200 bets and won them back by 500 bets. So I would plan on at least 2 to 3 buy-ins of 25 chips for 500 bets. Maybe the 2nd buy-in will win you back the first buy-in.

I ask because Hard Rock NJ online has a 100 percent deposit promo. I deposit a $1000 and they match it. Play thru is 20x slots or 50x blackjack, meaning I have to wager 50k on BJ, to clear the bonus. After betting $10 a hand on internet blackjack for 500 hands, I'm already down $300 which makes me very suspicious of their "random" number generator, but it's still their money I'm betting not mine. I'd play live BJ but it just takes too long. But I'd still like to wind up with Some bonus after the 50k. Game info says rtp is around 99.82 percent, so after 50k in wagers, I should only lose about $100.

I don't understand the match promo because they're not available to me and I don't know. You deposit $1,000 and they give you $1,000 extra, but you can't cash-out the extra $1,000 until the $50K is bet through? What if you don't make it? You have to deposit more. Do you get another deposit match?

I don't know what the table minimums are. If they are $5, I could get 10 X 25 bet buy-ins for $2,000. If they are $10 I could get 5 X 25 bet buy-ins with my usual systems.
Your flat betting at $10 gives you 8 X 25 unit buy-ins.

5,000 hands X $10 = $50K play through. At 300 hands/hour that'd be 16.67 hours of play.
$50,000 X 0.5% = $250 expected loss (-EV)
Square root of 5,000 hands = 70.71 X 1.15 = 81.317 X $10 = 1 Standard Deviation = $813

- EV +/- 1 Standard Deviation = -$1,063 / $563
- EV +/- 2 Standard Deviation = -$1,876 / $1,376
- EV +/- 3 Standard Deviation = -$2,689 / $2,189

You'll probably want to withdraw your original $1,000 when you get down to $1,000 if you want it back for something else. Flat betting at $5 is what you should be doing with $2,000 here.

If betting $5 per hand for 10,000 hands for 33.33 hours at 300 hands/hour.
10,000 hands X $5 = $50K play through.
$50,000 X 0.5% = $250 expected loss (-EV)
Square root of 10,000 hands = 100 X 1.15 = 115 X $5 = 1 Standard Deviation = $575

- EV +/- 1 Standard Deviation = -$825 / $325
- EV +/- 2 Standard Deviation = -$1,400 / $900
- EV +/- 3 Standard Deviation = -$1,975 / $1,475

If betting $25 per hand for 2,000 hands for 6.67 hours at 300 hands/hour.
2,000 hands X $25 = $50K play through.
$50,000 X 0.5% = $250 expected loss (-EV)
Square root of 2,000 hands = 44.72 X 1.15 = 51.43 X $25 = 1 Standard Deviation = $1,285.75

- EV +/- 1 Standard Deviation = -$1,535.75 / $1,035.75
- EV +/- 2 Standard Deviation = -$2,821.50 / $2,321.50
- EV +/- 3 Standard Deviation = -$4,107.25/ $3,607.25

No, you don't get another $1000, you lose. If you lose $2000 while trying to bet the 50k you're broke. But betting $10 hand for $50k there's now way you should ever be down $2k in a fair game. At least I don't think so. But the way I'm going I'll be down $3k over $50k in wagers which proves to me what I already know, internet games are fixed and not random. If I lose the entire bonus I can still withdraw my $1k deposit and break even, but I'll have wasted alot of time.

You'll probably want to withdraw your original $1,000 when you get down to $1,000 if you want it back for something else. Flat betting at $5 is what you should be doing with $2,000 here.

The way it works is you deposit $1000, they match it with $1000. So you have $2000 to play with. You cannot withdraw until you bust out, play the required play through or cancel the bonus. When you win, they add money to the bonus(which you can’t withdraw till the rollover is complete). When you lose they take the losses out of your cash balance. So basically canceling the bonus is never profitable.

The correct strategy with something like this is usually to bet big or maybe to have some sort of progressive betting system. So in this case starting off betting $100 a hand is probably something appropriate.

50x on table games is decent. I’ve played 125x and even 300x rollover bonuses. You can beat them but you have to take the variance. It’s very easy to lose 60 bets in 500 or 1000 hands on blackjack. I’ve lost 80+ hands on banker in baccarat over 1500 hands. Is it rigged? Well who knows? I’ve won a lot, I’ve lost a lot.

I watched a youtube video that Las Vegas is mostly 6:5.

I was suggesting the $5 level so he wouldn't bust out before he hit the $50K play through 99% of the time. Higher amounts increase the risk of ruin. $100 bets with a 20 bet start only work if you pick up an early winning streak before you bust out.

What I'm finding is I can win 10 bets ahead, but it's quickly followed by a 15 bet losing streak. I would have been better off cashing out with a 10 bet ahead balance, but I kept trying to get to a 20 or 30 bet ahead balance first. My latest session I was down 24 bets and won 35 bets back and that put me 10 bets ahead. If I won the 35 bets ahead at the start of the session I would have been a big winner instead of a double-up winner.

The goal really isn’t avoiding risk of ruin if you want to play optimally for the bonus. If you bust out you basically short change the bonus, which means if you hit zero you had bad variance but only had to pay for half of it. If you run it up you get to keep 100% of it. If he wants to sit there for hours playing $5 because he likes it then that’s fine. Also you need to check the terms of the bonus. I know Hard Rock often only gives you 2 days to play it.

This shit will drive you crazy. You’ll see so many patterns in randomness. You’ll lose 30 bets and then get it right back.