3 Shot Poker
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9 members have voted
March 20th, 2023 at 12:31:31 PM
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We haven't had a new Field Trial in Nevada in a long time. Perhaps pre-Covid. However, the drought is over with a trial of 3 Shot Poker at the Grand Sierra in Reno.
So far, I've only written down the rules, which you can find at Wizard of Odds (WoO). I plan to publish an analysis later this week.
The question for the poll is would you play 3 Shot Poker?
So far, I've only written down the rules, which you can find at Wizard of Odds (WoO). I plan to publish an analysis later this week.
The question for the poll is would you play 3 Shot Poker?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 20th, 2023 at 3:43:15 PM
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So, for the 3-card poker hands, you would raise when your two hole cards are:
- a pair
- suited
- connected, i.e., either adjacent ranks or 1 gap between the two ranks,
otherwise, fold? That's seems like a high frequency of folding.
And the five shot wager is just a stud poker hand with a payout table? Think Mississippi Stud in terms of how often you win a hand.
I guess this is a game where you infrequently have a hand with a positive RTP.
- a pair
- suited
- connected, i.e., either adjacent ranks or 1 gap between the two ranks,
otherwise, fold? That's seems like a high frequency of folding.
And the five shot wager is just a stud poker hand with a payout table? Think Mississippi Stud in terms of how often you win a hand.
I guess this is a game where you infrequently have a hand with a positive RTP.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
March 21st, 2023 at 6:17:19 AM
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Wiz,
I saw a typo on your page: in your table "3 Shot Return Table Pay Table 2", the column headers for Weight and Pay are reversed.
This game will probably prove to be popular.
Dog Hand
I saw a typo on your page: in your table "3 Shot Return Table Pay Table 2", the column headers for Weight and Pay are reversed.
This game will probably prove to be popular.
Dog Hand
March 21st, 2023 at 6:49:25 AM
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My analysis is done and up at Wizard of Odds. I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 21st, 2023 at 7:40:28 AM
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I think having three opportunities to hit something will help alleviate the feeling of losing as often as you will, since you will still hit an occasional pair that will reduce your loss from 3 bets down to 1.
My concern is what players think when they have an A-Q and shouldn't play because it has about the same odds as 2-4 (obviously some slight differences with Aces having a chance of hitting low straight too). I feel like an additional payline of Jacks or Better paying more than a pair might help make this feel more like poker where higher ranked cards have more value, and make the play/fold decision a little more interesting. Seeing the high house edge I would think there would be wiggle room for something like this.
My concern is what players think when they have an A-Q and shouldn't play because it has about the same odds as 2-4 (obviously some slight differences with Aces having a chance of hitting low straight too). I feel like an additional payline of Jacks or Better paying more than a pair might help make this feel more like poker where higher ranked cards have more value, and make the play/fold decision a little more interesting. Seeing the high house edge I would think there would be wiggle room for something like this.
March 21st, 2023 at 10:36:20 AM
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I assume the title of "Tens Or Better" for the 3-card payouts should be any pair; but as I agree with your figures I guess it's just a transcription error.
Personally I prefer if it's best (or neutral) to go for an inside straight; and perhaps odds being 25 10 10 5 3 1 for House Edge nearer 3% as I think over 6% is excessive.
Having, say P(Aces) or P(Kings) Paying say 2 to 1 doesn't really change the strategy, but does mean you don't lose if you play (say) AQ and pull an Ace.
Personally I prefer if it's best (or neutral) to go for an inside straight; and perhaps odds being 25 10 10 5 3 1 for House Edge nearer 3% as I think over 6% is excessive.
Having, say P(Aces) or P(Kings) Paying say 2 to 1 doesn't really change the strategy, but does mean you don't lose if you play (say) AQ and pull an Ace.
March 21st, 2023 at 1:11:56 PM
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I agree with Charlie's comment: there is an error on the 3 shot payouts table: the "Tens or Better" label should be "One Pair"
I do have a question:
The outcome of the three Three Shot Bets are not independent of each other, e.g., it is not possible for the outcome of all three bets to be Mini-Royal | Mini Royal | Mini-Royal or SF | SF | SF or 3oaK | 3oaK | 3oaK. So, for the purposes of calculating house edge is it mathematically valid to calculate the house edge of one of these bets separately and then simply multiply that value of House Edge by 3 to find the House Edge of the ensemble of three bets?
I do have a question:
The outcome of the three Three Shot Bets are not independent of each other, e.g., it is not possible for the outcome of all three bets to be Mini-Royal | Mini Royal | Mini-Royal or SF | SF | SF or 3oaK | 3oaK | 3oaK. So, for the purposes of calculating house edge is it mathematically valid to calculate the house edge of one of these bets separately and then simply multiply that value of House Edge by 3 to find the House Edge of the ensemble of three bets?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
March 21st, 2023 at 1:35:12 PM
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Yeah, since you're only playing against a pay table it's a different thing altogether. For those interested...
Here is a free demo game version.
Here is a free demo game version.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
March 21st, 2023 at 4:42:02 PM
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Quote: gordonm888I do have a question:
The outcome of the three Three Shot Bets are not independent of each other, e.g., it is not possible for the outcome of all three bets to be Mini-Royal | Mini Royal | Mini-Royal or SF | SF | SF or 3oaK | 3oaK | 3oaK. So, for the purposes of calculating house edge is it mathematically valid to calculate the house edge of one of these bets separately and then simply multiply that value of House Edge by 3 to find the House Edge of the ensemble of three bets?
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It seems kosher to me. The bottom line is still right and the odds per individual hand are right. I did wonder how to express the return table though. If anyone has a better idea than my weighting method, I'm all ears.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 21st, 2023 at 4:46:09 PM
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Quote: GialmereYeah, since you're only playing against a pay table it's a different thing altogether. For those interested...
Here is a free demo game version.
link to original post
I tried this demo game; the first 11 hands were all pairs or suited or connected, such that you call rather than fold. The odds of that happening randomly are about 0.5311 which is less than 1 in 1,000.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Mar 21, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
March 21st, 2023 at 5:01:16 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickI assume the title of "Tens Or Better" for the 3-card payouts should be any pair; but as I agree with your figures I guess it's just a transcription error.
link to original post
Thanks, good catch.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 22nd, 2023 at 2:12:50 AM
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Like most poker games it seemed your outcome relied on a string of good hands or a big hand. I did find folding so often became fairly boring so eventually added the side bet (which I'd probably not do in real life).
I think it's essential that straights pay 5 to 1 (technically 4.25 or better) meaning you play inside draw hands, however it's still sad you fold nearly half the hands.
The feature of having three hands is nice, for instance with KQh you break even if one of the three cards is a Heart and have chances for more.
btw when playing the demo using $25 was best due to the colours of $50 and $100 payouts.
I think it's essential that straights pay 5 to 1 (technically 4.25 or better) meaning you play inside draw hands, however it's still sad you fold nearly half the hands.
The feature of having three hands is nice, for instance with KQh you break even if one of the three cards is a Heart and have chances for more.
btw when playing the demo using $25 was best due to the colours of $50 and $100 payouts.
March 22nd, 2023 at 1:40:48 PM
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I did something similar to what Charlie has done, but I also calculated the 50 different player outcomes and payouts for each deal, assuming paytable #1
R= Royal Flush
X = Straight Flush
T = Trips (3oaK)
S = Straight
F = Flush
P = Pair
L = Lose
so an outcome SPL is one in which a player gets a straight, a pair and a losing hand with a payout of +5.
As a summary, I offer this shorter version of the table:
So, player will have a losing hand about 72.25% of the time, will push about 6.23% of the time and will win with a frequency of 21.54%. That was my original comment, the player will be winning with an unusually low frequency for a table game (though Miss Stud is comparable.)
My calculated house edge for Payout Table 1 is -0.076199, which is identical to the value calculated by Wizard
R= Royal Flush
X = Straight Flush
T = Trips (3oaK)
S = Straight
F = Flush
P = Pair
L = Lose
so an outcome SPL is one in which a player gets a straight, a pair and a losing hand with a payout of +5.
| Outcome | Payout | Combinations | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| RXS | 80 | 24 | 9.23446E-07 |
| RXF | 77 | 36 | 1.38517E-06 |
| RXP | 76 | 24 | 9.23446E-07 |
| RXL | 74 | 108 | 0.000004156 |
| RSS | 60 | 84 | 0.000003232 |
| RSF | 57 | 456 | 0.000017545 |
| RSP | 56 | 288 | 0.000011081 |
| XXS | 55 | 216 | 0.000008311 |
| RSL | 54 | 1368 | 0.000052636 |
| RFF | 54 | 504 | 0.000019392 |
| RFP | 53 | 696 | 0.000026780 |
| RPP | 52 | 180 | 0.000006926 |
| XXF | 52 | 324 | 0.000012467 |
| RFL | 51 | 3372 | 0.000129744 |
| XXP | 51 | 216 | 0.000008311 |
| RPL | 50 | 2088 | 0.000080340 |
| XXL | 49 | 972 | 0.000037400 |
| RLL | 48 | 4884 | 0.000187921 |
| XSS | 35 | 1296 | 0.000049866 |
| XSF | 32 | 5664 | 0.000217933 |
| XSP | 31 | 3672 | 0.000141287 |
| XSL | 29 | 16992 | 0.0006538 |
| XFF | 29 | 5076 | 0.000195309 |
| XFP | 28 | 7224 | 0.000277957 |
| XPP | 27 | 1920 | 0.000073876 |
| XFL | 26 | 34068 | 0.001310832 |
| XPL | 25 | 21672 | 0.000833872 |
| XLL | 23 | 49296 | 0.001896759 |
| TTP | 21 | 3744 | 0.000144058 |
| SSS | 15 | 8924 | 0.000343368 |
| TPP | 12 | 175968 | 0.006770708 |
| SSF | 12 | 7200 | 0.000277034 |
| SSP | 11 | 32904 | 0.001266045 |
| SSL | 9 | 194976 | 0.007502078 |
| SFF | 9 | 16740 | 0.000644104 |
| SFP | 8 | 23760 | 0.000914212 |
| SPP | 7 | 32220 | 0.001239727 |
| SFL | 6 | 112320 | 0.004321729 |
| FFF | 6 | 45540 | 0.001752239 |
| SPL | 5 | 460656 | 0.017724628 |
| FFP | 5 | 94800 | 0.003647613 |
| FPP | 4 | 49380 | 0.001899991 |
| SLL | 3 | 1351980 | 0.052020039 |
| PPP | 3 | 1361328 | 0.052379721 |
| FFL | 3 | 504660 | 0.019417767 |
| FPL | 2 | 628056 | 0.024165666 |
| PPL | 1 | 320220 | 0.012321082 |
| FLL | 0 | 1618656 | 0.062280912 |
| PLL | -1 | 2197656 | 0.084559054 |
| Fold | -1 | 12465600 | 0.479638009 |
| LLL | -3 | 4119592 | 0.158509250 |
As a summary, I offer this shorter version of the table:
| Outcome | Payout | Combinations | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Else | 7 to 80 | 753,956 | 0.029009912 |
| SFL; FFF | 6 | 157860 | 0.006073968 |
| SPL; FFP | 5 | 460656 | 0.017724628 |
| FPP | 4 | 49380 | 0.001899991 |
| PPP; SLL; FFL | 3 | 3217968 | 0.123817527 |
| FPL | 2 | 628056 | 0.024165666 |
| PPL | 1 | 320220 | 0.012321082 |
| FLL | 0 | 1618656 | 0.062280912 |
| Fold, PLL | -1 | 14663256 | 0.564197063 |
| LLL | -3 | 4119592 | 0.15850925 |
So, player will have a losing hand about 72.25% of the time, will push about 6.23% of the time and will win with a frequency of 21.54%. That was my original comment, the player will be winning with an unusually low frequency for a table game (though Miss Stud is comparable.)
My calculated house edge for Payout Table 1 is -0.076199, which is identical to the value calculated by Wizard
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Mar 22, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:39:52 AM
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I see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo. If you give it a try post your experience. Sounds to me like the hit frequency may be too low combined with fairly stingy house edge. Caesars not surprisingly went with the worst paytables.
November 4th, 2023 at 12:07:40 PM
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If I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.
And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.
And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.
November 4th, 2023 at 12:43:34 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyIf I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.
And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.
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Is a flying horse a Pegasus or is Pegasus a flying horse?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
November 4th, 2023 at 1:07:06 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyIf I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.
And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.
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If I ask the Bronies, they seem quite adamant that "alicorn" is the term of choice.
I really hope not to care that much.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 4th, 2023 at 3:28:41 PM
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Yep. Heres a tweet:Quote: deanandmariaI see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo.
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https://x.com/flamingovegas/status/1720560596704239777?s=46&t=GGszWiD6DLadfPNF5gTL-A
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
November 4th, 2023 at 7:21:53 PM
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so the big question is . . . How much does the free shirt lower the house edge on the 5 shot bet? 😀Quote: DJTeddyBearYep. Heres a tweet:Quote: deanandmariaI see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo.
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https://x.com/flamingovegas/status/1720560596704239777?s=46&t=GGszWiD6DLadfPNF5gTL-A
link to original post
November 4th, 2023 at 9:38:17 PM
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Quote: billryanIs a flying horse a Pegasus or is Pegasus a flying horse?
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I hope teliot stumbles across this post. I hope he won't mind me saying some of his poetry concerns unicorns and Pegasus.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 5th, 2023 at 4:58:57 AM
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One poem used those two. Pegasus is the proper name for a particular flying horse , just as Mike is the proper name for a particular Wizard.Quote: WizardI hope teliot stumbles across this post. I hope he won't mind me saying some of his poetry concerns unicorns and Pegasus.
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