## Poll

9 members have voted

Wizard
• Posts: 26496
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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March 20th, 2023 at 12:31:31 PM permalink
We haven't had a new Field Trial in Nevada in a long time. Perhaps pre-Covid. However, the drought is over with a trial of 3 Shot Poker at the Grand Sierra in Reno.

So far, I've only written down the rules, which you can find at Wizard of Odds (WoO). I plan to publish an analysis later this week.

The question for the poll is would you play 3 Shot Poker?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
• Posts: 5049
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
March 20th, 2023 at 3:43:15 PM permalink
So, for the 3-card poker hands, you would raise when your two hole cards are:

- a pair
- suited
- connected, i.e., either adjacent ranks or 1 gap between the two ranks,

otherwise, fold? That's seems like a high frequency of folding.

And the five shot wager is just a stud poker hand with a payout table? Think Mississippi Stud in terms of how often you win a hand.

I guess this is a game where you infrequently have a hand with a positive RTP.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DogHand
• Posts: 1521
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
March 21st, 2023 at 6:17:19 AM permalink
Wiz,

I saw a typo on your page: in your table "3 Shot Return Table  Pay Table 2", the column headers for Weight and Pay are reversed.

This game will probably prove to be popular.

Dog Hand
Wizard
• Posts: 26496
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 21st, 2023 at 6:49:25 AM permalink
My analysis is done and up at Wizard of Odds. I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
zbrownson
• Posts: 76
Joined: Jul 2, 2020
March 21st, 2023 at 7:40:28 AM permalink
I think having three opportunities to hit something will help alleviate the feeling of losing as often as you will, since you will still hit an occasional pair that will reduce your loss from 3 bets down to 1.

My concern is what players think when they have an A-Q and shouldn't play because it has about the same odds as 2-4 (obviously some slight differences with Aces having a chance of hitting low straight too). I feel like an additional payline of Jacks or Better paying more than a pair might help make this feel more like poker where higher ranked cards have more value, and make the play/fold decision a little more interesting. Seeing the high house edge I would think there would be wiggle room for something like this.
charliepatrick
• Posts: 2946
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
March 21st, 2023 at 10:36:20 AM permalink
I assume the title of "Tens Or Better" for the 3-card payouts should be any pair; but as I agree with your figures I guess it's just a transcription error.

Personally I prefer if it's best (or neutral) to go for an inside straight; and perhaps odds being 25 10 10 5 3 1 for House Edge nearer 3% as I think over 6% is excessive.

Having, say P(Aces) or P(Kings) Paying say 2 to 1 doesn't really change the strategy, but does mean you don't lose if you play (say) AQ and pull an Ace.
gordonm888
• Posts: 5049
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
March 21st, 2023 at 1:11:56 PM permalink
I agree with Charlie's comment: there is an error on the 3 shot payouts table: the "Tens or Better" label should be "One Pair"

I do have a question:

The outcome of the three Three Shot Bets are not independent of each other, e.g., it is not possible for the outcome of all three bets to be Mini-Royal | Mini Royal | Mini-Royal or SF | SF | SF or 3oaK | 3oaK | 3oaK. So, for the purposes of calculating house edge is it mathematically valid to calculate the house edge of one of these bets separately and then simply multiply that value of House Edge by 3 to find the House Edge of the ensemble of three bets?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Gialmere
• Posts: 2939
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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March 21st, 2023 at 1:35:12 PM permalink
Yeah, since you're only playing against a pay table it's a different thing altogether. For those interested...

Here is a free demo game version.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Wizard
• Posts: 26496
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 21st, 2023 at 4:42:02 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I do have a question:

The outcome of the three Three Shot Bets are not independent of each other, e.g., it is not possible for the outcome of all three bets to be Mini-Royal | Mini Royal | Mini-Royal or SF | SF | SF or 3oaK | 3oaK | 3oaK. So, for the purposes of calculating house edge is it mathematically valid to calculate the house edge of one of these bets separately and then simply multiply that value of House Edge by 3 to find the House Edge of the ensemble of three bets?

It seems kosher to me. The bottom line is still right and the odds per individual hand are right. I did wonder how to express the return table though. If anyone has a better idea than my weighting method, I'm all ears.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gordonm888
• Posts: 5049
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
March 21st, 2023 at 4:46:09 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Yeah, since you're only playing against a pay table it's a different thing altogether. For those interested...

Here is a free demo game version.

I tried this demo game; the first 11 hands were all pairs or suited or connected, such that you call rather than fold. The odds of that happening randomly are about 0.5311 which is less than 1 in 1,000.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Mar 21, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
• Posts: 26496
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 21st, 2023 at 5:01:16 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I assume the title of "Tens Or Better" for the 3-card payouts should be any pair; but as I agree with your figures I guess it's just a transcription error.

Thanks, good catch.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
• Posts: 2946
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
March 22nd, 2023 at 2:12:50 AM permalink
Like most poker games it seemed your outcome relied on a string of good hands or a big hand. I did find folding so often became fairly boring so eventually added the side bet (which I'd probably not do in real life).
I think it's essential that straights pay 5 to 1 (technically 4.25 or better) meaning you play inside draw hands, however it's still sad you fold nearly half the hands.
The feature of having three hands is nice, for instance with KQh you break even if one of the three cards is a Heart and have chances for more.
btw when playing the demo using \$25 was best due to the colours of \$50 and \$100 payouts.
gordonm888
• Posts: 5049
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
March 22nd, 2023 at 1:40:48 PM permalink
I did something similar to what Charlie has done, but I also calculated the 50 different player outcomes and payouts for each deal, assuming paytable #1

R= Royal Flush
X = Straight Flush
T = Trips (3oaK)
S = Straight
F = Flush
P = Pair
L = Lose

so an outcome SPL is one in which a player gets a straight, a pair and a losing hand with a payout of +5.

Outcome
Payout
Combinations
Probability
RXS
80
24
9.23446E-07
RXF
77
36
1.38517E-06
RXP
76
24
9.23446E-07
RXL
74
108
0.000004156
60
84
0.000003232
RSF
57
456
0.000017545
RSP
56
288
0.000011081
XXS
55
216
0.000008311
RSL
54
1368
0.000052636
RFF
54
504
0.000019392
RFP
53
696
0.000026780
RPP
52
180
0.000006926
XXF
52
324
0.000012467
RFL
51
3372
0.000129744
XXP
51
216
0.000008311
RPL
50
2088
0.000080340
XXL
49
972
0.000037400
RLL
48
4884
0.000187921
XSS
35
1296
0.000049866
XSF
32
5664
0.000217933
XSP
31
3672
0.000141287
XSL
29
16992
0.0006538
XFF
29
5076
0.000195309
XFP
28
7224
0.000277957
XPP
27
1920
0.000073876
XFL
26
34068
0.001310832
XPL
25
21672
0.000833872
XLL
23
49296
0.001896759
TTP
21
3744
0.000144058
SSS
15
8924
0.000343368
TPP
12
175968
0.006770708
SSF
12
7200
0.000277034
SSP
11
32904
0.001266045
SSL
9
194976
0.007502078
SFF
9
16740
0.000644104
SFP
8
23760
0.000914212
SPP
7
32220
0.001239727
SFL
6
112320
0.004321729
FFF
6
45540
0.001752239
SPL
5
460656
0.017724628
FFP
5
94800
0.003647613
FPP
4
49380
0.001899991
SLL
3
1351980
0.052020039
PPP
3
1361328
0.052379721
FFL
3
504660
0.019417767
FPL
2
628056
0.024165666
PPL
1
320220
0.012321082
FLL
0
1618656
0.062280912
PLL
-1
2197656
0.084559054
Fold
-1
12465600
0.479638009
LLL
-3
4119592
0.158509250

As a summary, I offer this shorter version of the table:
Outcome
Payout
Combinations
Probability
All Else
7 to 80
753,956
0.029009912
SFL; FFF
6
157860
0.006073968
SPL; FFP
5
460656
0.017724628
FPP
4
49380
0.001899991
PPP; SLL; FFL
3
3217968
0.123817527
FPL
2
628056
0.024165666
PPL
1
320220
0.012321082
FLL
0
1618656
0.062280912
Fold, PLL
-1
14663256
0.564197063
LLL
-3
4119592
0.15850925

So, player will have a losing hand about 72.25% of the time, will push about 6.23% of the time and will win with a frequency of 21.54%. That was my original comment, the player will be winning with an unusually low frequency for a table game (though Miss Stud is comparable.)

My calculated house edge for Payout Table 1 is -0.076199, which is identical to the value calculated by Wizard
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Mar 22, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
deanandmaria
• Posts: 30
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
November 4th, 2023 at 10:39:52 AM permalink
I see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo. If you give it a try post your experience. Sounds to me like the hit frequency may be too low combined with fairly stingy house edge. Caesars not surprisingly went with the worst paytables.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6271
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
November 4th, 2023 at 12:07:40 PM permalink
If I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.

And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 4th, 2023 at 12:43:34 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.

And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.

Is a flying horse a Pegasus or is Pegasus a flying horse?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Dieter
• Posts: 5547
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
November 4th, 2023 at 1:07:06 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If I wanted a 7% HE game, I'd play triple-zero roulette.

And Pegasus was not a unicorn - I actually got into a discussion about what you call a flying unicorn. I thought "pegacorn" was the preferred term.

If I ask the Bronies, they seem quite adamant that "alicorn" is the term of choice.

I really hope not to care that much.
May the cards fall in your favor.
DJTeddyBear
• Posts: 10992
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 4th, 2023 at 3:28:41 PM permalink
Quote: deanandmaria

I see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo.

Yep. Heres a tweet:

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
deanandmaria
• Posts: 30
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
November 4th, 2023 at 7:21:53 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: deanandmaria

I see on Social Media that this game is now live at Harrahs and Flamingo.

Yep. Heres a tweet:

so the big question is . . . How much does the free shirt lower the house edge on the 5 shot bet? 😀
Wizard
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November 4th, 2023 at 9:38:17 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Is a flying horse a Pegasus or is Pegasus a flying horse?

I hope teliot stumbles across this post. I hope he won't mind me saying some of his poetry concerns unicorns and Pegasus.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
November 5th, 2023 at 4:58:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hope teliot stumbles across this post. I hope he won't mind me saying some of his poetry concerns unicorns and Pegasus.

One poem used those two. Pegasus is the proper name for a particular flying horse , just as Mike is the proper name for a particular Wizard.

Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Wizard