UTH: Avg bet=4.15x Ante?

I cant create a thread.
gives an error.
PM'd Dieter and he said to reply to an existing post and he'll take care of it.

<Title of thread> UTH: Avg bet=4.15x Ante?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/

"The average total amount bet by the end of the hand is 4.152252 times the ante bet. "

I got 3.75x

ante blind bet total
$10 10 40 60 (4x ante)
10 10 20 40 (2x ante)
10 10 10 30 (1x ante)
10 10 0 20 (Fold)

60+40+30+20 = 150
150/4 = 37.5
37.5/$10 = 3.75

How did you get 4.15x Ante as avg?

You are assuming you are equally likely to get a hand that has a 4x bet, a hand that has a 2x bet, a hand that has a 1x bet, and a hand that you fold.

You need to multiply the probability of being a dealt a hand that would have a 4x bet by 60, the probability of being dealt a hand that would have a 2x bet by 40, the probability of being dealt a 1x hand by 30, and the probability of being dealt a hand you would fold by 20, then add up those four numbers and divide by 10.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

You are assuming you are equally likely to get a hand that has a 4x bet, a hand that has a 2x bet, a hand that has a 1x bet, and a hand that you fold.

You need to multiply the probability of being a dealt a hand that would have a 4x bet by 60, the probability of being dealt a hand that would have a 2x bet by 40, the probability of being dealt a 1x hand by 30, and the probability of being dealt a hand you would fold by 20, then add up those four numbers and divide by 10.
link to original post

ahh.. so with the wiz's strategy, you are max betting more often than average thus the higher avg bet #

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: ThatDonGuy

You are assuming you are equally likely to get a hand that has a 4x bet, a hand that has a 2x bet, a hand that has a 1x bet, and a hand that you fold.

You need to multiply the probability of being a dealt a hand that would have a 4x bet by 60, the probability of being dealt a hand that would have a 2x bet by 40, the probability of being dealt a 1x hand by 30, and the probability of being dealt a hand you would fold by 20, then add up those four numbers and divide by 10.
link to original post

ahh.. so with the wiz's strategy, you are max betting more often than average thus the higher avg bet #
link to original post

There are 1326 possible 2-card deals.
Going by the Wizard's chart, there are 25 non-pair sets of ranks where you always make the 4x raise; each one has 16 possible deals (for example, for Ace-King, for each of the four possible suits for the Ace, there are four possible suits for the King), so that's 25 x 16 = 400 deals right there.
There are seven where you make the 4x raise if they are suited; each one has 4 possible deals (for example, for King-2, you raise if both are spades, or both are hearts, or both are clubs, or both are diamonds); that's another 7 x 4 = 28 deals.
Finally, for the 12 ranks where you raise with a pair, each one has 6 deals (Spade/Heart, Spade/Club, Spade/Diamond, Club/Heart, Club/Diamond, Heart/Diamond), for another 12 x 6 = 72 deals.
There are a total of 400 + 28 + 72 = 500 deals where you raise; this is 500/1326, or about 37.7%, of your hands.